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  #1  
Old 10-21-2006, 07:00 PM
Janak Parekh
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Default Mobile Opportunity: Will the Smartphone Kill the PC?

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.c...ne-kill-pc.html

"The quotes coming out of London this week had me wondering: Is Symbian's management insane? Or are they just posturing? Here's what they said: 'The personal computer as we know it will soon be dead, replaced by rapidly growing demand for smart mobile devices, according to the head of Symbian.' --IT Pro. They sound disturbingly like some of the most enthusiastic PDA enthusiasts did in 2000. I cringed then, and I cringe now. Here's why..."

And, with that, Mike Mace pens a succinct, but very interesting post about the difference of Smartphones and desktop computers, and where the future lies for both. I think most Windows Mobile devices, including Pocket PCs and Pocket PC Phones, fall largely in the Smartphone category as well. I know we have a few hardcore users that use the Pocket PCs more than desktops for "creation", but I agree with Mike: their value is in information access. Now, what Microsoft really needs to do is to make that access more seamless -- I still have to work too hard to sync information and tools onto my Treo. Just because "Smartphones" don't replace computers doesn't mean that I should have to tether the two to get information transferred.
 
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  #2  
Old 10-21-2006, 07:37 PM
SteveHoward999
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I think when you add up all the uncertainties, it'll be another six years at least before you see a fully functional PC replacement as small as a mobile phone (in other words, it's beyond any realistic product planning horizon today). By that time, something the size of a PC will be even more powerful, and people may well trade up to that.
I think he's missing the point. He's not thinking out the box enough and is thinking too much about what 'conventional' computing has done.

First, a simple fact.

I was at a developer's conference recently. Not a big flashy Microsoft conference, but a 'real world' multimedia developer's conference. Among us were several world-recognised gurus, always known for being cutting-edge developers. Not one had a laptop less than three years old, when in the past all would have had new machines. Why? The older machines are plenty powerful enough for all the multimedia applications in use, so why bother with a new machine? Also, it seems to be harder and harder to find machines with hi-res screens (i.e. 1400x1050, 1600x1200 or better).

This is a recent trend - one where older machines are completely up to the job and there is no need to upgrade to remain productive and competetive. Obviously Vista will change that, for a short while at least.

Also, Mike Mace is not considering what pocket devices could evolve into - the could have wireless keyboards, internal projection screens, wireless pointers and wireless access to external screens. Then with appropriate upgrades to RAM, processor etc there is little reason to presume, IMHO, that the mobile device cannot be as powerful, if not more so, as todays desktop machines.

As for whether the OS of choice will be Symbian or Windows, or Linux or whatever ... frankly I can see the choice of OS becomming of less relevance over the next decade.
 
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Old 10-21-2006, 08:01 PM
jickbahtech
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Why does the device have to be all or nothing? I think OQO's model will be the next step.
On the go, you have a powerful smartphone, that when you get home (or to work, or the library, etc), you plug into a cradle that hooks up to a monitor, keyboard, mouse, speakers, and THATS your home computer. Onthe go you dont really need folding screens or projectors or anything like that (I could just see commuters here in LA trying to mess with that), but I could see a few terminals set up at Starbucks for you to plug your phone into. I already kinda do this with my 6700, WM5torage, and a host of portable apps.

I could see something like this happening in the next 5-10 years for people that wont need dual 32 core Xeons...
 
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Old 10-21-2006, 08:46 PM
SteveHoward999
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JickBahTech
Why does the device have to be all or nothing?...
it doesn't. But it could be pretty powerful :-)
 
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  #5  
Old 10-21-2006, 09:43 PM
alese
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I agree that most of the content creation will stay on the "full size" PC.

But at least on WM, you can allready create content using stuff like foldable keyboard, software like Text Maker and VGA screen...
Also there are UMPCs.

I don't know about USA, but here in Europe everyone has a mobile phone and more and more people are using their phones for more and more "computer" stuff, not only for communication but also for PIM, data storage, GPS navigation...
 
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  #6  
Old 10-22-2006, 12:21 AM
SteveHoward999
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Originally Posted by alese
I don't know about USA, but ...
The US is behind Europe with mobile devices, especially phones. With a cultural preference for Palm and cell phone companies who have a stranglehold on their customers, and stringint FCC(?) rules to pass each time a radio device is to be approved for sale it is taking the US longer than Europe and other countries to get rolling fully.

Heck I got a Cingular contract with unlimited 'high speed' internet access a couple of months ago, thinking this should be good, only to find it was really no better than the GPRS connection I got with T-Mobile or whoever in the UK 4 years ago.

But things are getting better. Then, I think, the US will better understand where mobile devices can really take them. Not that the geeks don't see it, but the less addicted users tend not to quite see it the way Europe and the far east do.
 
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  #7  
Old 10-22-2006, 03:22 AM
Twain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Janak Parekh
Now, what Microsoft really needs to do is to make that access more seamless -- I still have to work too hard to sync information and tools onto my Treo.
Can you elaborate on where you are having to work hard to sync information and tools? I have a Treo and haven't had problems. I may not be on the cutting edge though, in terms of what I need synchronized.

Twain
 
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  #8  
Old 10-22-2006, 06:24 PM
Janak Parekh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twain
Can you elaborate on where you are having to work hard to sync information and tools? I have a Treo and haven't had problems. I may not be on the cutting edge though, in terms of what I need synchronized.
I was particularly thinking about the lack of a robust wireless sync option. Out of the box, the only way to sync with WM5 is via USB/Bluetooth against a desktop or with an Exchange Server. I actually use the latter a lot, but it's very limited:

- No Notes sync
- No files sync
- No app installs
- No third-party conduits

... etc. Some of this can be worked around (e.g., file transfer online, or to/from SD card), but it's not nearly as seamless as I'd like it to be. AS 3.x was better in supporting LAN sync, but even then, that LAN sync was cumbersome to use at best over the Internet.

--janak
 
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  #9  
Old 10-22-2006, 06:30 PM
Janak Parekh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveHoward999
But things are getting better. Then, I think, the US will better understand where mobile devices can really take them. Not that the geeks don't see it, but the less addicted users tend not to quite see it the way Europe and the far east do.
Hang on a second. I'm a mobile power user, and I've seen and interacted with European wireless technologies, and I fail to see how that changes the original post's view about content creation and the like, unless you're talking about the pervasive use of mobile cameras and moblogging, which I only consider a niche.

If anything, most European mobiles, even the advanced ones, shun the QWERTY layout; QWERTY is far more pervasive in the US thanks to adoption of the Blackberry and its friends. Then there's touch screens, which are often useful in content creation. Most Symbian devices are Series 60 and such, with no touch screens. Sure, there's UIQ, Series 80, etc., but they have significantly less adoption. I'd be curious to see numbers on touch screen adoption, but my first guess is, again, that US adoption is higher.

I readily accept that wireless penetration is higher in Europe, and the time-to-market of new technologies is shorter, and that our carriers are terrible technology inhibitors, control freaks, closed-system operators, etc. But that's a different point.

--janak

p.s. If you want 3G, the way to go in the US right now is Verizon/Sprint. Both have significant 3G rollouts, and I get fast EVDO performance in most of the New York metropolitan area.
 
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  #10  
Old 10-22-2006, 06:34 PM
Janak Parekh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alese
But at least on WM, you can allready create content using stuff like foldable keyboard, software like Text Maker and VGA screen...
Sure, and I've owned TextMaker. But I'd consider it far more useful for minor edits, etc., then to create large amount of content. Now, will some use it for writing long papers? Sure, but I don't see the majority adopting it, for some of the reasons discussed earlier (stable platform, hardware limitations, etc.)

Quote:
Also there are UMPCs.
Yes, this is one interesting future platform for mobile content creation. However, UMPCs are really desktop-platform based. They're a far cry from Symbian or Windows Mobile. In that sense, are we greying what mobile means? Yes, I'd accept that. However, the article was penned in response to comments made by mobile OS vendors.

Quote:
I don't know about USA, but here in Europe everyone has a mobile phone and more and more people are using their phones for more and more "computer" stuff, not only for communication but also for PIM, data storage, GPS navigation...
I argue that most of what you just said fits Mike's vision perfectly: information access -- playing music, reading news, looking up contacts, navigation.

--janak
 
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