07-22-2006, 01:00 PM
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Developer & Designer, News Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,959
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Coming Zune: The iPod's Rival
"They made a statue of us. And put it on a mountain top. Now tourists come and stare at us. Blow bubbles with their gum. Take photographs for fun, for fun." - "Us", by Regina Spektor (Coming Zune).
The past week has been rife with news and rumours about Microsoft's iPod rival, otherwise known as the Zune. Like the days of the Xbox 360 and Ultra-Mobile PC, Microsoft has embarked on a new viral marketing scheme aimed at catching the attention of not just disgruntled iPod users, but consumers worldwide who are after a portable device that represents the future of entertainment. What does Microsoft have in store? Read on to find out!
Microsoft confirmed the existence of the Zune yesterday with an exclusive Billboard interview and the launch of the Coming Zune web site. The Zune is best described as both Microsoft's solution to Apple's dominant iPod, and an admission of its own failure in delivering a working ecosystem. Ecosystem, you say? It's a term that has become increasingly popular since Apple first unveiled its iPod and the companionable iTunes application and iTunes Music Store. Apple knows that success in the digital media market isn't merely about having the most power-packed hardware around. The software is just as important as the hardware. Integration of the two is just as important as existence of the two. And making it all work is the icing on the cake. In this digital age where DRM controls our autonomy, it all comes down to succeeding in three key areas: the ability to purchase the media, transfer the media to a device, and listen to the media - all without annoyance. Apple does this so well, and the market statistics prove it. While at times, Microsoft has had its moments of glory, its ecosystem has largely failed. The lack of a uniform device, the lack of a globally accessible media service, and the ailing Windows Media Player application have contributed to this. The introduction of PlaysForSure aimed to patch this up, yet it had not (and still has not) given Microsoft the edge it needs to compete with Apple. Microsoft's recent partnership with MTV in the delivery of URGE is much the same story. While a step in the right direction, it fails in two areas: firstly, it has a limited consumer base (at the moment, URGE is only available for US consumption), and secondly, it relies heavily on spotty DRM technology (proof can be seen in the synchronisation experience with Windows Mobile-based devices, which is nowhere near as reliable as the iPod and iTunes combination). So, Microsoft would benefit from looking at its current ecosystem (or rather, lack thereof), identifying the holes, and rebuilding a new one in order to give Apple a cause for concern. That's where the Zune comes into play.
Figure 1: PlaysForSure and URGE - nice, but not enough.
The Zune falls under Microsoft's "Home & Entertainment" group, which like the "Mobile & Embedded Devices" group (the brains behind our favourite toys), is part of the parent "Entertainment & Devices" group. Sources are pointing fingers at Robbie Bach (President of the "Entertainment & Devices" group) and J Allard (Corporate Vice President and Chief XNA Architect at Microsoft, and a founding member of the Xbox platform) as two key figures behind the Zune. Allard's involvement is regarded as significant, and talk of his involvement has since opened up a bag of rumours (some considered more fact than fiction, and vice versa). As we've witnessed with the Xbox 360, Allard and his team have the potential to walk on their own path and achieve success by ensuring that the products they create offer an integrated experience. How? By utilising unique hardware and software that plugs into a uniform service that connects people to the service, connects the service to the people, and connects people to people. To recapitulate, this ideology is just what Microsoft needs to crack the iPod's dominance in the digital media market, but also further develop its position in areas it already has a stranglehold on.
So, let's break down the facts and rumours and see where Microsoft plans to take the Zune in the years ahead. Like the Xbox 360, the Zune will be uniform from both a hardware and software perspective, thus keeping incompatibilities to a minimum. There were rumours that the Zune would run Windows Mobile, but this is becoming increasingly unlikely. The Zune's experience has to be unique, and you can't achieve that when Pocket PCs, Smartphones, and Portable Media Centers are already powered by the same platform. Thus, it's assumed that the platform driving the Zune will be written from the ground up. Sources indicate that from a hardware perspective, the Zune will sport some sort of drive, not flash media, to offer large storage capacities that could best be regarded as a "requirement" in this day and age with more people resorting to the purchasing of digital media online and the ripping of one's own CD collection. In addition, the Zune is expected to feature Wi-Fi capabilities, which offers benefits in many ways (more on this later).
Unsurprisingly, the Zune is being marketed as an all-in-one entertainment device, separate from the PlaysForSure initiative and the woes of Windows Media. This most likely means that media purchased from URGE, Napster, Rhapsody et al. will not be compatible. Instead, the Zune will plug into its own application, its own DRM technology, and its own online service that not only offers audio and video, but also unique content not present anywhere else (the Xbox Live Marketplace is a good example of this principle in action, and in fact, there are rumours that the Zune's online service will somehow be linked to the Marketplace). We might also expect Zune devices to be part of a social network built on Live Anywhere connectivity, thus the sharing of Xbox gamertags and achievements, the sending and receiving of private messages, and the playback of Xbox Live Arcade games on the Zune could be a possibility. Wi-Fi capabilities, as discussed earlier, would help the Zune achieve this, but incidentally, also offer a means for users to share media with each other (with limits, of course). Then looking to another rumour, there is talk that Microsoft will allow current iTunes Music Store customers to download already-purchased tracks from the Zune's online store for free. A bit far-fetched, I know, but there is a first for everything, and we'll see what happens in the coming months. And hey, while on the topic of purchasing and downloading, here is a great chance for Microsoft to incorporate its Points currency structure in the Zune's online store! Are you seeing this core theme of "integration" yet?
However, if you thought the Zune was "it", think again. Other codenames such as Alexandria, Argo, and Pyxis have popped up, and we, the geek community, can't help but wonder what they refer to. Alexandria is rumoured to be the online service in Microsoft's new ecosystem. This pre-launch advertisement, while vague, does suggest it.
Pyxis is believed to be another entertainment device in this new ecosystem. While the Zune resembles the iPod, the Pyxis is rumoured to resemble the iPod nano in both functionality and construct, but goes a little further to support video playback as well. And Argo is considered the project name encompassing the devices and the service of this new ecosystem. But then it'll kill you to know that following the official announcement of the Zune yesterday, it is now believed that these three terms have been retired in favour of Zune, which now covers all aspects of the ecosystem, and the ecosystem itself. Confusing, no? 
Figure 2: Microsoft Alexandria - or Zune? Check out the advertisement here.
The first public unveiling of the Zune is expected as early as the end of August, with additional demonstrations to follow in September. Microsoft could use this to its advantage. Rumours have been flying around that Apple will unveil a new range of iPod nano devices at the Worldwide Developers Conference 2006 (WWDC06) in a couple of weeks. It's a chance for Apple to say, "look, we have this", but Microsoft to laugh it off shortly after with a "look, we have this, but it's better". The first Zune device is expected to hit store shelves in the fourth quarter of this year, just in time for Christmas, and if indeed Microsoft's new ecosystem is what we all hope it to be, then there is a very good chance that the Zune will fly off the shelves, much like the successful Xbox 360 late last year.
But as Apple has proven time and time again, continued success is not just about the product itself; it's about the marketing experience as well. Look around and what do you see? iPod advertisements plastered all over television screens, newspapers, walls, bus stops, train stations, and well, you get the idea. The accessories market has only fuelled this obsessive marketing campaign. Whether you head into a store or shop online, you'll see plenty of items designed for the iPod, and very little for any other portable entertainment device. Microsoft knows how it all works. It has done a good job accessorising the Xbox 360, and I believe it can do the same for the Zune, and recent news has shown that the company is already well on the way to doing so.
Microsoft has its foot in the door and it has taken a step in the right direction. All it needs to do now is follow through. Like the Xbox 360, the Zune isn't just about excelling on one front. Instead, it's about excelling on multiple fronts and integrating it all to deliver a truly compelling user experience. I have high hopes for the Zune, and can't wait to see it mature in the months and years ahead.
Darius Wey enjoys all forms of technology. His time is usually channeled into mobile devices, digital media, application and web development, graphic design, his Xbox 360, and of course, portable entertainment devices! He lives in Perth, Western Australia.
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07-22-2006, 03:43 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 718
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Actually, a standard PocketPC could be as good as an iPod as a media player if it weren't for one thing - storage. The largest SD and MiniSD cards for PDA's are 2gb. There are some 4gb too, but they do not always work in every PDA with every card. That's just not enough to hold applications, data and media without switching multiple cards - an annoying proposition.
The largest iPod on the other hand have 60gb hard drives, which can hold just about every song, video file and audiobook in most people's collections.
Here's an idea. Take a standard PocketPC or Smartphone with WM5, jam a 30gb or 60gb hard drive in it and develop an iPod-like front end software that can easily control all sorts of media formats. Then pair it with a music store desktop software like iTunes. And because its also a PocketPC, you could still run all your apps and personal data since the front end software is just that, a program that is running on a standard PPC instead of a standalone OS like iPod. Its sort of like what Garmin and others are doing with these PocketPC/GPS hybrid devices.
The only drawback is price. I'm sure MS wants $100-$300 devices, not $600 ones. Plus, many people want just media players, not a full PPC. But it would still be cool.
I'd buy one of those media players in a second  Its not a perfect solution, but my point is, storage is the issue, not necessarily hardware.
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07-22-2006, 04:41 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 16
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zune
Nice try, but there's a reason no one has added a hard drive to a pocketpc and called it an ipod killer: battery life.
With the basic microprocessor in ipods, they as it is have only reasonable battery life. Do you honestly think a battery hog like the Intel PXA series is going to last anywhere near enough to run as a music player and as a pda and as whatever else? Not to mention the power-hungry hi res screen.
Convergence is nice and all, but battery technology just hasn't kept up. I can't use an atom as an ipod as well because I can't afford to have my battery die on me in the middle of an on-call shift at the hospital. Ditto goes fo rusing it as a video player.
Re: Zune: as with all things microsoft, the first 4 revisions will suck, but the 5th and subsequent revisions will be near enough to good enough to use properly. That's how windows finally became usable (but far from perfect), the same goes for windows mobile. While everyone is quick to call the xbox 360 a raging success, the poor penetration in some markets coupled with the lack of supply for most of the first and second quarter along with the lack of compettition to date mean this one is too close to call.
As usual, i'm sure microsoft will clobber the compettition with their billions, having easily enoug reserves to out last any compettitor, even Apple. THey've proved to date that no lead, no matter how large, is insurmountable in any market segment that microsoft cares to attack.
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07-22-2006, 04:53 PM
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Developer & Designer, News Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,959
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaleReeck
Here's an idea. Take a standard PocketPC or Smartphone with WM5, jam a 30gb or 60gb hard drive in it and develop an iPod-like front end software that can easily control all sorts of media formats. Then pair it with a music store desktop software like iTunes. And because its also a PocketPC, you could still run all your apps and personal data since the front end software is just that, a program that is running on a standard PPC instead of a standalone OS like iPod. Its sort of like what Garmin and others are doing with these PocketPC/GPS hybrid devices.
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There are many problems with this approach. Part of the reason why the iPod + iTunes combination is so successful is because it's easy enough for the average Joe to operate. The iPod is a uniform device, free of third-party interference, quite unlike what we are witnessing today with Pocket PCs. OEMs are free to modify ROMs, add in features, take out features, and in general, make a mess of the connectivity and performance of a device. Give a stranger an iPAQ, and then give him/her an Axim a few days later, and he/she will start to question the button layout, why this particular media player cannot play this file format, and so on and so forth. Ask him/her to synchronise the device with a computer, and then witness the confusion when an Outlook-related 85010014 error code is generated. The aim here is to keep things simple, yet functional. Success isn't only about catering for the technophiles. You have to reach out and touch the needs and wants of all consumers (young and old, tech literate or illiterate) by offering something that's easy to learn and easy to use.
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07-22-2006, 06:11 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 172
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I wonder what sort of viruses it will have. :roll:
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07-22-2006, 06:27 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 125
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i see this crashing and burning very zune *sic*.
Microsoft have the blinkers on if they think they can "penetrate" the market at this stage.
Not to mention, the video ad was ridiculous - in its attempt to build "brand recognition" for Microsoft (???why!) you couldn't even work out what product they were trying to promote.
The only realistic option I see is for Microsoft to offer a product that doesn't perform like arse and undercut the competing iPod product by a significant amount.
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07-22-2006, 06:32 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 177
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I wonder if the first generation Zune will be like the first generation Xbox which was plagued by low quality, proprietary DVD drives that burned and scratched the game dvds, requiring multiple purchases, and inferior hard disks (and I won't mention the power cords which were subject to spontaneous combustion) requiring factory replacements, and excessivly high and delayed warrantee repairs.
and then there is the issue of compatibility: first generation xbox games are generally incompatible with the second generation Xbox 360. will Microsoft guarantee that first generation programming for the Zune will be compatible with the second generation Zune 360...
Ipod programming (ie music) is compatible with all generations of Ipods with comparable hardware capabilities (ie. music players play the music, music players do not necessarily play the video)
Microsoft does not have a good track record of hardware production and support: maybe they hope that the consumer has an exceptionally short memory.
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07-22-2006, 10:39 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 718
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Darius Wey
Success isn't only about catering for the technophiles. You have to reach out and touch the needs and wants of all consumers (young and old, tech literate or illiterate) by offering something that's easy to learn and easy to use.
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I hear what you are saying and I agree for the most part. But I do have to say, I recently visited some iPod forums to scope things out as I just got a 60gb video iPod myself and a lot of the problems I was reading weren't very different from PDA forums. Issues with bad hardware, bad firmware, bugs, corrupt media files, third party accessory issues, desktop software errors and syncing problems were common, with both newbies and experienced users alike. You'd swear you were in any typical PocketPC or Palm message forum. I have to question how much easier and simpler iPods are to a standard PDA. Just because an iPod can do less than a PPC doesn't necessarily mean its easier to use.
To be honest, I think the tech industry coddles users too much. Even an average joe can read a manual. But too many people are afraid to learn anything new. If they can't figure it out in five minutes, they don't want to be bothered. They have no patience whatsoever. The tech industry spends so much time catering to these people that innovation is slowed IMO.
***excess quote trimmed by mod JD***
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07-23-2006, 01:53 AM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 92
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"They've proved to date that no lead, no matter how large, is insurmountable in any market segment that microsoft cares to attack."
I think that pretty much says it. Netscape vs. IE, Windows vs. Netware, Pocket PC vs. Palm... They can't call it Zune though - it needs to be something catchier and more memorable, like Windows Mobile SE Plus for Portable Emtertainment Media Devices...
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07-23-2006, 03:23 AM
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Developer & Designer, News Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,959
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaleReeck
I hear what you are saying and I agree for the most part. But I do have to say, I recently visited some iPod forums to scope things out as I just got a 60gb video iPod myself and a lot of the problems I was reading weren't very different from PDA forums. Issues with bad hardware, bad firmware, bugs, corrupt media files, third party accessory issues, desktop software errors and syncing problems were common, with both newbies and experienced users alike. You'd swear you were in any typical PocketPC or Palm message forum. I have to question how much easier and simpler iPods are to a standard PDA. Just because an iPod can do less than a PPC doesn't necessarily mean its easier to use.
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Problems exist - I'm not denying that. But consider how much easier it would be for Apple or Microsoft to universally patch a problem, add functionality, and create common documentation if there was just one type of hardware to worry about. It's done with the iPod, and it's done with the Xbox 360 (over Xbox Live). Look at the Pocket PC and you have multiple OEMs and multiple devices - and at times, half of them couldn't care less about fixing problems (e.g., X50/X50v + Windows Mobile 5.0 upgrade).
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaleReeck
To be honest, I think the tech industry coddles users too much. Even an average joe can read a manual. But too many people are afraid to learn anything new. If they can't figure it out in five minutes, they don't want to be bothered. They have no patience whatsoever. The tech industry spends so much time catering to these people that innovation is slowed IMO.
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Actually, I think the tech industry isn't cuddling users enough. For the past 9 months, I was working as the Chief IT Officer of an Australian and New Zealand medical conference. One thing I learned is that no matter how easy a task may seem, and no matter how clean and simple a user interface may be, you cannot expect first-time users to know what is going on. They need to be guided, and even manuals fail to do this sometimes with all the jargon that is used. A tech illiterate isn't going to want to open a manual and read all this stuff about MP3s and DRM. It has to be simpler than that.
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