04-26-2005, 01:30 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Gartner Predicts Mobile OS War Is Over
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=22683
"TWO OF THE Gartner Group's leading analysts, Nick Jones and John Girard, are predicting big trouble for Symbian when Microsoft finally releases its Magneto release of Windows for Smartphones some time in Q3-Q4 2005. Jones believes that the lead Symbian currently enjoys as a smartphone OS will evaporate when Magneto finally appears. Magneto will effectively fix the bugs and fill the holes in the current version of Windows for Smartphones."
This mainly references Windows Mobile for Smartphones but the line is going to get blurry as time goes on as to what the difference is between a Smartphone and Pocket PC Phone. Of course, to win, Microsoft must at least get their Smartphones into the hands of US carriers. You'd be surprised how difficult it is to get a modern Windows Mobile Smartphone from your carrier's local office. :?
Interesting Palm wasn't even mentioned. As cool as the Treo is, I personally see it as the last big hurrah for PalmOne/PalmSource. They will continue to release derivative products to a solid fan base but continue to lose share.
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04-26-2005, 02:15 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,520
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As much as I'm a fan of Window Mobile, I'm always concerned when the market collapses leaving only M$ standing.
Here's to a long and healthy competition. :drinking:
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Phone: Nexus one Backup Phone: AT&T Samsung Jack; Future Phone: I'm Watching WP7; Media Player: Platinum Zune HD 32GB; Home Server: HP MediaSmart Server LX195 Console: XBox 360, PS3, Wii |
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04-26-2005, 02:39 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 481
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Re: Gartner Predicts Mobile OS War Is Over
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
... As cool as the Treo is, I personally see it as the last big hurrah for PalmOne/PalmSource. They will continue to release derivative products to a solid fan base but continue to lose share.
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As always, I agree with Ed.
And, of course, it will be blamed on the criminal, predatory acts commited by Microsoft, not any lack of competance or truly compelling products on Palm(/one/source)'s part.
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04-26-2005, 02:51 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,208
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i find sony clie ux50 the best palm device ever.
i wish any vendor would sell a device in the form factor of ux50 but with windows mobile built in
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04-26-2005, 04:30 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 212
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I'm still confused with all the flavors of Windows Mobile. Other manufacturers are using the term smartphone for their pda-style phones which blurs the whole thing for me. I don't see Palm doing well until their new OS comes out and is available on every device. And that, would have to be a remarkable OS to make me sell my HP 4155. My goal is to have a great pda and cell together in a small form factor like the Treo. Hope the rumors are true that a Windows Mobile Treo is coming out soon.
Do a few people use both a a pocketpc and a windows smartphone, or is there no difference b/w the two and one can use a smartphone 100% of the time?
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04-26-2005, 06:24 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by serpico
Do a few people use both a a pocketpc and a windows smartphone, or is there no difference b/w the two and one can use a smartphone 100% of the time?
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There are software differences right now, but Windows Mobile for Smartphone is still very capable and many people use a smartphone exclusively (though I doubt anyone on this site is :wink  . I would say that the smartphone + PDA combination is the least common configuration for those with advanced functionality (because of cost), falling behind "dumb" phone (non-WM or Palm, but still possibly Symbian) + PDA or just a single PDA phone.
Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.
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04-26-2005, 06:29 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gibson042
Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.
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Really? I hadn't heard that the WM2005 Smartphones would have touchscreen functionality. Even if you could load something like Pocket Informant on a WM2005 SP, it wouldn't make any sense without a touchscreen.
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04-26-2005, 06:31 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 212
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Thanks for the update, I'm looking forward to Windows Mobile 2005. Probably the answer for many of us users carrying so many devices. That's the one thing I hate about technology, all these devices. PocketPC, cell phone, ipod, digital camera... and your wallet and car keys!
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04-26-2005, 06:35 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 77
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When I saw the title, I just knew that it had to be from Ed...
Gartner has become a bad joke in the analysis industry. They've been wrong so often, in so many markets, that about the only people that believe them anymore are those who haven't heard of them, and those who really, really, want to believe what their saying. (They can make good money selling stuff to people that really, really, want to believe them.)
For 7+ years they've been predicting that MS would kill off PalmOS "by the next year", and they've been wrong every time. Note that they didn't say gain a market share lead, they've said that PalmOS would basically go away completely. A little while back they were very happy to very loudly proclaim that WM sales had finally passed PalmOS sales...
As for the health of P1, 2003->2004 lead to an increase in all devices sold from them that run PalmOS. Per product profit margin increased. P1 isn't losing money, they're profitable. I might not like all their decisions, but they haven't made out bad, especially when much of their competition is often dumping stuff for below cost.
Gartner is very heavily MS biased. In basically any product category, they just about always pick MS to win, even when it doesn't make sense.
WM for SPs will have a very tough time against Symbian. Why? Because of Nokia. MS doesn't sell SPs. Nokia does.
Nokia has around 30% of the global market for cell phones. And they will never run WM on them. Furthermore, the other market leaders are putting a lot more effort into Symbian than WM, and that's if they're even working on a WM phone at all.
As for a global wide breakdown:
US: Palm is extemely strong here at the SP level (and very, very weak in the rest of the world). Nokia, Moto, and others are also very strong. HP & Dell have been the standard bearers for WM, but they have very little of a relationship with the carriers. MS (and P1 for that matter) have a lot of trouble getting into the low end, because the carriers only want the dirt cheap java phones. (Low end WM & treo SPs mean a lot more software and support problems for them, costing them more $$$ than they could ever bring in.) To add to the problems, the carriers just flat out don't trust MS.
Europe: Does anyone here really think that MS is going to beat out Nokia and Erricson for the hearts and minds of europeans?
Japan: Local products dominate. MS, Nokia, P1, etc, etc, all have a lot of trouble just being visible here.
Rest of the pac rim: It's becoming increasingly clear that java and linux will dominate. (PalmOS on linux might do good here, but probably not.)
My analysis (from someone who develops on mobile platforms):
PDAs: In the US, you practically need to be on all the platforms (WM,PalmOS,RIM,Series 60). None dominate, all have a very significant presence. In europe, Series 60, then WM. In asia, go with the local products and/or linux.
SPs: By the end of next year there will probably be over 1B J2ME capable phones sold. That number dwarfs everything else. (I'd estimate that by the end of next year there will be 7-15M WM phones, 5M+ treos, and maybe up to 100M Series 60+ phones.) Long term, the chinese are going to put linux on every SP that they make, and dump them in huge numbers into about every market.
Todd
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04-26-2005, 08:00 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gibson042
Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.
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Really? I hadn't heard that the WM2005 Smartphones would have touchscreen functionality. Even if you could load something like Pocket Informant on a WM2005 SP, it wouldn't make any sense without a touchscreen. |
That would fall under "functionality". Everything I've read about Magneto indicates a total software merging of Smartphone and Pocket PC. I'm sure that (almost?) all WM smartphones sold this year will lack touchscreens. But there isn't anything preventing manufacturers from adding the hardware, and the OS will have built-in support for it. I hereby offer my prediction that 2006 will see the release of a WM device that is primarily a phone (what we would now call a smartphone) and has a touchscreen.
And if I remember correctly, Nokia has already announced a Series 60 phone with a touchscreen.
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