06-15-2004, 06:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Do Handhelds Have a Future?
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1611918,00.asp
"Rats. I finally get around to buying a handheld computer, and I start seeing headlines like "Is the PDA dead?" I should have seen this coming. We covered the news this month that Sony is halting production of its Cli� line of handhelds for the rest of the year�and maybe for good. The announcement came in the wake of market research that shows declining PDA sales for the second consecutive year."
I think this gets into the definition of "what is a PDA?" I think the classic PDA that Palm made famous with the first Palm Pilot is a dying breed. Enterprises certainly have no use for a PIM device that requires the user to go back to their desktop to synchronize data when so many options are available that have significant processing power and wireless connections that make it as easy to sync from around the world as from down the hall.
Consumers have little need for PIM only devices too as phones are increasingly able to handle simple and complex PIM tasks.
But what about more powerful devices? Low cost devices like the iPAQ 1940 series that include bluetooth or more expensive devices like the iPAQ 4000 line or Axim X30 that have some combination of bluetooth and/or WiFi? What about PDA/Phone combos, like the Treo 600, the XDA or the forthcoming iPAQ 6000 line?
Do handhelds have a future? I think they do, but it isn't the same PDA you had three years ago. It can't be. The market will move beyond that - a lesson Palm learned perhaps a few years too late. I doubt we really know what the handheld device of 2007 will be capable of, much of which will depend on the wireless infrastructure in your area.
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06-15-2004, 06:16 PM
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Thoughts Media Review Team
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 150
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Handspring got it right-they thought that the market would become converged, and as is evidenced by remarkable sales of the Treo 600, it was correct. I would say that PDAs aern't going anywhere, but they will be your portable information center. Cellular, WiFi, BT will all become standard fare IMO, and even the low end models will have some sort of wireless networking built in. Ultra Mini Computers like the OQO won't kill off PDAs as many people believe-the cost is just too much for the average consumer. At the same time, PDAs will continue to drop in price, making it so everyone has one, much like a cell phone these days.
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06-15-2004, 06:28 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,264
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While it will probably take until close to the end of the decade, I think the stand alone PDA is dying. I think PDA functions will be mergered into phones and devices like the OQO will fill in for PDA's (but will have phone functions built into them also). Also, I think there will still be a market for the very low end stand alone PDA, ie something like the zire but at more like $30.
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06-15-2004, 06:58 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 76
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The article uses "handheld" and "PDA" as if they are synonymous. Handhelds will never be dead. We'll always have and need a hand-sized computing device with screen size similar to our current Pocket PCs. Whether we'll have a device dedicated primarily to PDA functions is certainly debatable.
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06-15-2004, 07:18 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 340
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I liken the pda/smartphone market to the office network environment.
There has been this back and forth with networks as to how data should be processed. First you had the server with dumb terminals, then the terminals had the processing power and sharing between desktops would eliminate the need for central servers. Now there is a symbiotic relationship where the desktop does some of the work, but the server retains and manages the data.
In a similar fashion, the pda became the place to put all of your data, and you had to look up a contact in the pda to then type it into the phone. Now we have smartphones that can retain the data and do the phone functions as well.
But I believe that in the end the pda will be replaced by the pmc (personal media center). Through bluetooth or other wireless format the pmc and the smartphone and the wireless speaker-mic will all be connected. The phone will be the personal wireless access point, handling the phone/networking functions, but the pmc with its folded 8" 800x600 dpi screen will allow the user to do the visual functions (surf the web, review work files, play games/music /video) that would not be practical on most phone's tiny screens.
I believe that pmc's will not have cameras on them. The smartphone will have the camera built in which will be removable(to allow for video conferencing) and to drop of for security reasons.
It would not make sense for the pmc to have phone functions because with multiple carriers and phone standards, it is easiers to change a phone than by a new pmc.
Just my $.02.
Steve 8)
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06-15-2004, 07:24 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 455
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Then let's debate! 
PDA's biggest value is their portability, a value which will never die. If anything, the PDA will evolve in its mission, since the shrinking machines like OQO will take over many of the PDA's functions.
I see the PDA as becoming the ubiquitous storage device for all personal data and files, a sort of "e-wallet." As you travel about, work and play, your cell phone will access it for contact numbers and e-mail addresses. Your OQO device, your home PC and your office PC will access it for stored files. Your appliances will access it for favorite recipes, TV shows to record (or playback), and preferred home environmental settings.
As other devices learn to better intercommunicate and share data, storing your data with you at all times should look more and more attractive. The PDA is perfectly suited for that task.
__________________
Steven Lyle Jordan: Original SF so good, Fox would never put in on the air. |
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06-15-2004, 07:31 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 270
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My first PDA was a Palm Pro back in 1995. It replaced a ragged old address book and a DayTimer planner. I never liked the Palm Desktop so I used Microsoft Exchange (the predecessor to Outlook) with Intelisync. In 2000 I moved to PPC and used ActiveSync with Outlook for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. Feb this year I picked up a Nokia 6820 Cell phone that includes Nokia Software Suite that syncs with Outlook over Bluetooth. The new phones PIM functions are equal to the PPC but the phone is a lot smaller then any PDA. I now use the phone 100% for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. I still use the PDA everyday as a GPS, eWallet for passwords , CoolCalc to figure things out and other misc apps. But it�s no longer my PIM. The Nokia 6820 has an electronic wallet feature but I am too lazy to move everything over. A lot of people buy a PDA strictly for PIM functions, that market will move to cell phones.
Sean
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06-15-2004, 07:37 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,734
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Only one thing is very certain - the device we will carry in our pocket will be able to function as a mobile phone.
The next question is - will the device be our only computer, storing our "profile", or will it be a companion to a "desktop" somewhere else.
Only time will tell.
Surur
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06-15-2004, 07:44 PM
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Editorial Contributor
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 5,411
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I recall my PC being a 4MHz machine with 640K of RAM. My PPC is a 400MHz machine with 64M of RAM. The OQO and Flipstart are poised to put into my hand what I had on my desktop a couple of years ago. Will the OQO etc. replace my handheld? Heck yea, but when it first comes out it will be excruciatingly expensive. They price will come down and I will have today's desktop in my hand. But the desktops will evolve too. So we will be having this same discussion 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, from now. My Personal Information Center (I like that better  ) is great, but when will it have the alpha wave recognition input and 3D holographic display projector like my desktop?
__________________
Sometimes you are the anteater, sometimes you are the ant.
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06-15-2004, 08:09 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 160
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phone and pda! ouch!
my pocket pc was fine when i had a belt clip for my phone. now i have the nokia 3650 with no clip. it sucks to have both devices sometimes. i recently went house hunting in maryland and having to walk around with both devices wasn't good at all. i ended up leaving the ppc in the car most of the time.
i think the handheld will always have a market. someone always needs just the "basics".
smartphones are cool but i would like to have a dedicated albeit small pda to watch movies and play tecmo super bowl on the commute home. for me the 4155 is a perfect device.
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