04-28-2004, 11:45 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Paul Thurrott Commentary on PDA Market
"The question is whether these colorful, people-friendly devices can do anything to rejuvenate PDA sales. In addition to the aforementioned 12 percent drop in year-over-year sales, PDA sales plunged 33.1 percent between fourth quarter 2003 and first quarter 2004, a post-holiday sales drop that's larger than the market typically experiences. In the United States, PDA buyers are moving toward low-end products, such as the Zire family, whereas traditional business users are moving toward smart phones.
With its powerful Windows Mobile-based OS, which powers devices such as the Pocket PC, Microsoft was expected to eventually dominate the PDA market. But the market's move to smart phones might have forestalled and ultimately denied Microsoft that domination. Microsoft's smart phone entry, although well received by reviewers, has seen little traction thanks to resistance from traditional cell phone companies who are fearful of the software giant's motives."
Some strong views from Paul Thurrott, but that's his speciality. He's predicting that PDAs will die off and be replaced by Smartphones and Tablet PCs. What do you you think about this prediction?
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04-28-2004, 11:54 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,819
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He is probably correct, though current Smartphones and Tablet PCs won't do the trick just yet.
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04-29-2004, 12:07 AM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 95
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He may be right... eventually.
For now, I want my PPC seperate from my phone.
I drop my phone ALOT. I never drop my PPC.
Maybe its becuase of the price difference, :lol:
Regardless, I dont want a 600 $ phone.
I view them as almost disposable. If they break oh well, I get a new one.
Not so with my PPC.
And yes I do tend to buy cell phones that are on the budget end.
I dont care about phone games, cameras, ring tones, bluetooth... etc etc.
I just want it to make a call.
Now my PPC, I want it small, and loaded.
Thus my choice in the 4155.
my 2 cents
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04-29-2004, 12:08 AM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 451
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That depends on the definition of a smartphone again, I guess..
Tablet PCs are not attractive to me at all. Too big to hold (I mean, do you write on an A4 or 8.5x11 pad in your hand?), too heavy to use comfortably. It works fine on a table, but if I'm going to need a table, I'd take a full fledged subnotebook instead. I like my keyboards, thank you very much.
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04-29-2004, 12:11 AM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 555
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Nahh...I don't think so. But I think eventually all PDAs will have cell-phone functions built into them. But not phones with PDA functions -- you just can't do enough with them.
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04-29-2004, 12:14 AM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 497
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I love my iPAQ 5555, I love my LGVX6000 from Verizon and my StarTac phone (though antiquated as it is as it is work issued). I have never really been able to get on the Smartphone bandwagon simply because the Smartphones do not really have the functionality of a handheld PDA. My PDA is like my personal secretary. It gives me all the information (which I input albeit) that I need to successfully get through the day on a decent sized screen which I can view. For me personally, I do not wish to squint my eyes anymore than I do now and on a Smartphone I would be doing just that. And for Tablet PC's, why not just carry a laptop. Same principle, about the basic size and the same if not more computing power. PDA's will always have a market for those of us who just want an electronic secretary in our pockets. But, if the OEM's don't feel the same way this is all subject to change. Keep in mind though, we are all pushed to accept and learn to deal with what is the latest and the greatest. For me, my ipAQ 5555 is the greatest PDA in the world. It does what I need it to do and then some.
__________________
HTC Thunderbolt
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04-29-2004, 12:19 AM
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Magi
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,186
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I don't agree. I think Pocket PC's are just right in a few very important ways. Tablet PCs are a kind of weird mutation of laptops as far as I'm concerned - I don't see them replacing Pocket PCs, since they're not as portable.
Also, I don't see smart phones replacing Pocket PCs, for two reasons. First, there's a real-estate issue. I don't want to read a book on a phone, or watch movies, or do word processing or spreadsheet editing, or really any of the hard-core PIM stuff I do with my Pocket PC. Second, there's the issue about interaction with the device - I WANT a touch screen - and for that I need room for my fingers or stylus to move around.
I guess I see phones staying as phones with maybe some extra stuff tacked on, and I see Pocket PCs moving towards "mini tablet" functionality - mass storage, large touch screen, robust OS, small form factor, etc.
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04-29-2004, 12:33 AM
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Thoughts Media Review Team
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 749
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I'm not convinced I want a phone/pda combination (yet!), but I do know that now I'm using a tablet pc, I tend to truck it with me to meetings, etc. around the office, rather than take along my PDA (as I used to). The tablet is great -- especially if there is a wi-fi network in the building so I can keep constantly connected. Having the increased landscape for writing, drawing, etc. is a huge bonus + my Office 2003 software automatically set up Outlook to run an replicated copy of the calendar, etc. locally on the tablet. It syncs up all by itself when reconnected back into the LAN.
The downsides of the tablet are short battery life (only about 4 hours at best) and no 'instant on' feature -- although standby comes pretty darn close. The weight (about 3 lbs) is still a bit more than a pad of paper, but it's not a big huge burden to truck around to meetings.
I can see that, as tablets become more advanced and lighter, that I will probably stop using my PDA for 'office' work. I'll probably still need a small, portable unit however, to hold a copy of my schedule, contacts, etc. -- but maybe, with a bigger screen, that could be in my phone???
Hmmmmm....
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/drt
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04-29-2004, 12:39 AM
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Thinker
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 469
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Another 'pocket pcs are dead' article :roll: They'll have their purpose well into the future. I agree with the above sentiments that they move to having standard cellular abilities built in, but they will not be replaced by a phone. Of course then you could argue they are smartphones! How about this, if they have a 3.5 to 4 inch screen, they are pocket pcs. I think that is a magic size that will be around for a long time.
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04-29-2004, 12:59 AM
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Mystic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,819
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by powder2000
Another 'pocket pcs are dead' article :roll:
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You only roll your eyes because you are too close to the PDA world. We've all seen the focus at Microsoft toward Smartphones and Tablet PCs and Paul Thurrott will of course push the MS agenda, but in this case he is correct. The change is in the air, not today, not next month, but within a year, the PDA world will be a very different place.
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