05-09-2003, 09:54 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,177
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Meeting With Steve Ballmer
I met Steve Ballmer two days ago in a very interesting meeting at the Hotel Adlon in Berlin. Steve has been travelling in Europe to be present at several Windows 2003 launches and in between he had other meetings scheduled. The meeting participants were Steve, the German General Manager and seven MVPs. It was an awesome experience that lasted about 1.5 hours. We discussed the market in general, licensing and we also got to talk about various Open Source and Linux aspects. The other MVPs were Windows Server focused, so the discussion were more overall/general than just mobile devices. Microsoft is incredibly aware of what surrounds them in terms of customers, partners and competitors and it was inspiring to see Steve up close being so engaged in both the big picture as well as in individual product strategies. He is an amazing guy and definitely on top of what goes on.
As some of you may know, I have been looking at Linux in mobile devices for a while and at the meeting I shared a few of my thoughts on that subject. First, I would like to thank everyone that helped me during the process of learning and analyzing. I have had a good deal of great e-mail exchanges with many of you. Thank you! Read on to learn about what my own, personal analysis is.
In brief summary, my own, personal analysis on what is going on in the mobile device market is that it continues to be extremely competitive, that Palm is soon out of the big picture and that Linux joins Symbian and Microsoft in the mobile devices platform battle. I believe that Linux will start to appear in both data- and voice centric devices in volume within 12 months, but not without really tough and inherent challenges. The Linux players need to overcome the challenges of coordinating a disparate open source community, hardware innovation and commercial production. This might happen eventually as major market players such as Motorola, Matsu****a and Sony (the two latter in partnership) and others are now moving resources and efforts from other platforms to Linux. Their goals are as it seems toprepare data centric products and services to corporate customers that are standardizing on Java primarily and Linux secondarily, make voice centric consumer devices which they control from hardware specification and platform perspectives and become one de facto mobile device platform standard owner and thereby gaining control and potential licensing revenues.
Hardware innovation is beginning to take place, despite the fact that Linux in mobile devices has just begun its journey. As on the desktop and server side, there are a number of available Linux distributions and as on the desktop and server side some are more popular than others. Over time, more and more users and developers make their choices leading to higher concentrations of efforts around fewer distributions.
Linux key to distribution insulation is Java. By developing the core source code in Java, the efforts to move the code base across distributions can be manageable. Linux based devices will come in many shapes and forms including the typical data centric PDAs, voice centric cell phones and forms within the hybrid grounds in between. Most devices are currently under development and have not gone into commercial production. From a volume perspective, currently only Motorola seems to have devices lined up for mass production. Users of Linux devices have a number of third party applications to choose from. Handango is a common source of commercial applications, and Linux has ten times more the amount of applications in comparison with Nokia 7650.
It won�t be an easy ride for Linux into this market. Linux has a lot to prove, a vast amount of challenges to overcome and success is not automatic. However, I believe that chances are that we�ll see Linux kill Palm in the mid term future and challenge both Symbian and Microsoft in the long term future. Exciting times ahead!
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05-09-2003, 10:13 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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You forgot one important factor that will influence a Linux market...Perhaps more than any other OS, Linux has a significant and zealous following that will make the Linux PDA marketplace a reality. Something not to be under estimated.
I wonder....Does Linux save Palm ala BSD and Apple?
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05-09-2003, 10:16 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,177
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdegroodt
You forgot one important factor that will influence a Linux market...Perhaps more than any other OS, Linux has a significant and zealous following that will make the Linux PDA marketplace a reality. Something not to be under estimated.
I wonder....Does Linux save Palm ala BSD and Apple?
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I agree. In fact, my post is a brief summary. The full analysis is a twenty page document, and I also cover the community aspects.
If Linux in mobile devices takes off, I am sure the current Linux community -- across the range -- will play a role in that.
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05-09-2003, 10:25 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2003
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The good of this, to me, is that this is an issue important enough to get Steve to sit down and listen about it. It's a rare CEO from a company this large that gets into the brass tacks of their industry.
That said...Go Linux :twisted:
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05-09-2003, 10:30 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,177
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdegroodt
The good of this, to me, is that this is an issue important enough to get Steve to sit down and listen about it. It's a rare CEO from a company this large that gets into the brass tacks of their industry.
That said...Go Linux :twisted:
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I agree! OK, the meeting was really about many, many things and "mobile devices" was far from the main topic. But yes... it is really cool that a CEO takes time to meet us little guys! 
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05-09-2003, 10:59 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2003
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Well, the truth please...We know Bill isn't into the whole PDA thing, what about Steve? What's he carrying?
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05-09-2003, 12:35 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,177
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdegroodt
Well, the truth please...We know Bill isn't into the whole PDA thing, what about Steve? What's he carrying?
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I didn't ask him what he carried. Some Pocket PCs (and Smartphones) nowadays are so small you can't tell if someone is carrying them.
I can, however, say that Steve took notes using pen and paper, as did everyone else in the room, except for me. I used my Smartphone + keyboard. 8)
The German GM had Tanager device (Smartphone).
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05-09-2003, 02:51 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 53
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The time for mobile Linux isn't here yet. almost.. but not quite. It will be here in about 3-5 years.
the requirement:
1. Bigger hardware. Linux require somewhat larger resource to deliver similar features than PPC or palm. This is not bad, just like bigger PPC is not bad compared to smaller palm. But that mean the hardware has to catch up in order Linux full potential be realized.
2. Standard. when there is standard Linux trive. protocols, industrial proceedure, implementation etc.
3. Cheap, standard reliable, non regulated airwave for wireless transmission. plus the associated gear. Some form of Wifi will be the vehicle for Linux handheld to become popular.
4. unregulated , academic development settings. (It is strange but all big and successfull Linux project has this feature)
The next big revolution for Linux will be in China, instead of the internet and geeks basement. It will be driven by chip foundries, super large but low margin market, and lax regulations.
1. The biggest foundry, and a lot of wireles intelectual property are located there. (observe how the taiwanese ar trying to muscle in to phone market)
2. The need to connect the entire population on the cheap. Nokia+Motorola are to expensive and their IP structure is not friendly to big foundries.
3. tons of EE and emerging software industry.
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so around the early next decade, I will go to walmart, buy super cheap all in one server with wireless capability for about $4-500, a couple of $50 antenna gear, and head to handphone sections and grab a pair of $95 smarphone devices. And I will be able to set up my own wireless phone service.
The smartphone is functionally similar to current h5450.
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05-09-2003, 03:33 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 110
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Great Post!
I was wondering how long it would be before eveidence would show up of what Sony is planning! They always seem to be a step ahead in projecting and planning, never standing still for anyone. It keeps them on the forefront. One thing is for sure; Sony and Matsu****a can push the envelope and it might surprise everyone how fast they can push something into production. They are BIG companies with lots of money and resources not to be under estimated or second guessed! And secondly; when their product does come out, it won't be some stupid device either! 8)
I really like Sony; they are a driving company and fun to watch!
Way to go Sony! I can't wait to see where this goes. I for one am not dedicated to anything, including the PPC. If something comes out that is better; I'm all over it!
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05-09-2003, 03:42 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kaiden.1
Great Post!
I was wondering how long it would be before eveidence would show up of what Sony is planning! They always seem to be a step ahead in projecting and planning, never standing still for anyone. It keeps them on the forefront. One thing is for sure; Sony and Matsu****a can push the envelope and it might surprise everyone how fast they can push something into production. They are BIG companies with lots of money and resources not to be under estimated or second guessed! And secondly; when their product does come out, it won't be some stupid device either! 8)
I really like Sony; they are a driving company and fun to watch!
Way to go Sony! I can't wait to see where this goes. I for one am not dedicated to anything, including the PPC. If something comes out that is better; I'm all over it! |
I'm kind of torn on that one. On one hand, Sony's size and reach might be one of the best things to ever happen to Linux. On the other hand, Sony's continued desire to make things proprietary could be the single worst thing to ever happen to Linux. I can just see it now. Only the Uber MemStick will mount on a Sony Linux distro. :evil:
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