04-02-2003, 06:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Pocket PC Closes Gap On Palm OS in Japan
http://www.gartner.co.jp/press/pr20030328-02.html
The Pocket PC went from 16.3% marketshare in Japan to 28.3% from 2001 to 2002. Windows CE stayed relatively stable at 20.7% versus 20.1% in 2001. Palm dropped from 37.0% to 30.8%. That means Microsoft has 49.0% of the Japanese market between the Pocket PC and Windows CE devices.
PDA/HandheldPC Japan Market Share in 2002 (Note: I modified the chart horizontally to fit on the screen)
Proprietary operating systems are taking a hit too as they got cut in half from 26.1% to 13.4% during the same period.
Total shipments were 680,000 units, down 21%. The next chart I created using percentages above and other unit data given.
Items in yellow were given, other numbers calculated
Even in a 21% down market, Pocket PCs increased absolute volume 37%. The surge in "other" operating systems is primarily the shift to Linux away from proprietary systems by Sharp.
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04-02-2003, 07:40 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 62
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i see this trend continuing...with microsoft software in 70-80% of pda within 3 years.
where did palm goof...one single moment when they decided to charge for the sdk.
microsoft seems to be making the same mistake though w/ vs.net 2003.
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04-02-2003, 08:18 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 10
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well there's not enough time in the model to identify a trend yet (you need at least 3 points on a graph for that I believe). BUT, if this turns into a trend both Palm AND MS should be worried about Linux.
Personally I think this will turn into a trend and the battle on the pda will be MS and Linux (as it will probably be in the TV set-top-box). The battle on the cell phone will probably be Symbian/MS/Linux.
Personally I think Linux is great for us (as is Symbian) as it will push MS to improve reliability as well as feature set. Simply claiming better interoperability with Outlook/Exchange will not be good enough for the CIO in the long-run. Winning over the CIO will be key as that is where they will get there margin (ie not on the low end). Just look at Compaq's profit margins compared to Palm's.
Just my $.02
-Bill
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04-02-2003, 08:34 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by billb
well there's not enough time in the model to identify a trend yet (you need at least 3 points on a graph for that I believe). BUT, if this turns into a trend both Palm AND MS should be worried about Linux.
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I wish this was by OEM. I'd bet Sharp was flat to down in this time period. That said, if they switched from Proprietary to Linux that doesn't mean Linux is gaining ground on its own merits. It means one OEM switched. If Dell decided tomorrow to switch from Pocket PC to DellOS, DellOS would show a big jump but that doesn't mean Palm or MS should be worried about something that small with a narrow focus.
I've been hearing Linux will be the death of Windows and Pocket PC since Linux was loaded on an iPAQ 3600 within weeks of its launch. Now nearly three years later, I have never seen a user actually using a Linux PDA in the US at any user group, trade show or public place. I only see them in pictures on CNET.com or at a booth by someone selling a Linux device at the trade show.
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04-02-2003, 09:54 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 62
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it all boils down to software!!!!
great hardware...great os...great prices...no software...no thanks.
if linux really wants to crack this market - someone should come out with a relatively easy + capable development system that works on existing devices. since sharp seems to be a strong proponent...they could do it...but it has to be free or at least < $100.
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04-02-2003, 10:45 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,479
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Urm this is stat is wrong.
Linux if anything is severely under represented.
Sharp allegedly sold well over 100k zauruses with opie
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04-02-2003, 10:50 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fishie
Urm this is stat is wrong.
Linux if anything is severely under represented.
Sharp allegedly sold well over 100k zauruses with opie
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Solely in Japan and by December 31?
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04-02-2003, 10:54 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,479
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Yah, thats what they were advertising with when I was over.
Over 100k in 2k2.
This was mid january.
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04-02-2003, 11:11 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 110
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Analysing continuous data is one of the things I do for a living - and I can't make much out of any of the "trend" data you see in this market. It always seems (understandably) to be thrown about by significant launches. Or, of course, by fans of one (or another) OS "holding back" as there's a known new version on the way and with it juicy new devices!
To make real sense you need - I think - three years worth of quarterly data (minimum) plus really good insight on what was happening (by way of launches) at any given point.
What I would be really interested in knowing is the consumer dynamics underneath - what's called a Gains/loss analysis. This would show the volume coming from new users and how many people were switching from one OS to another.
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04-02-2003, 11:14 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fishie
Yah, thats what they were advertising with when I was over.
Over 100k in 2k2.
This was mid january.
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Well, strange they would hide that info from Gartner. Some of those sales must have been to outside countries or represented devices made but not sold to end users.
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