03-03-2003, 05:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Palm Warning Indicative Of 2003 PDA Market?
A few weeks ago I posted on a report from UBS Warburg that stated the 2003 handheld market would rise and the Pocket PC would be the primary beneficiary of this uptick. Palm would actually sell less.
This morning Palm warned that revenues for their third quarter (Dec-Feb) would be closer to $205-210 million vs. the projected $250 million.
"Palm, which has the largest share of the handheld market, suffered alongside the overall market during 2002. Worldwide shipments of handhelds declined by about 9 percent year over year to 12.1 million units during 2002, according to market researcher Gartner Dataquest. Palm shipments declined about 12 percent to 4.4 million in 2002, the research firm said."
Do you think Palm's problems are indicative of things to come for the entire market or is this a misstep on Palm's part that won't affect HP, Toshiba, Dell, Sony and other handheld manufacturers?
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03-03-2003, 05:03 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Hmm, you don't suppose poor Tungsten sales has anything to do with the fact that the TT is an overpriced, lackluster product? I mean, Dell can't keep up with demand for Axim. Nah, it must the economy. Yeah, that it's it.
:roll:
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03-03-2003, 05:11 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 405
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I feel that PPC marketshare of PDA sales will increase, and when we get some better Dell numbers, we'll see the increase in that share is mostly Dells.
Overall, I feel that the PDA market will be flat or decline, and that loss will be largely due to high end Palm OS units.
If it does increase, it'll be due to a (reasonably priced) device that is not yet released.
Of course........that's all before the depression hits :?
.......then it's up for grabs
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03-03-2003, 05:22 PM
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Magi
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,341
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Foo Fighter
Hmm, you don't suppose poor Tungsten sales has anything to do with the fact that the TT is an overpriced, lackluster product? I mean, Dell can't keep up with demand for Axim. Nah, it must the economy. Yeah, that it's it.
:roll:
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Foo has stated a very obvious point. Now that PPcs can be had in the same price range or, lower than, many Palm devices, can only have a positive effect on PPC marketshare.........It's now up to the marketing machine.....or lack of!!! As humans we tend to have a herd mentality. Where one goes we all go. PPCs have to be shown as the popular place to go.
Dave
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03-03-2003, 05:23 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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Having spent a lot of time as a user of both platforms and having recently gone back out to the market to see what Palm was up to (And having had high hopes for the Tungsten W), I would certainly say this is a Palm specific issue.
They missed the boat big time and had 3 revisions of CE/PPC to get their act together. The "Mo" is on the PPC camp now and it's going to be a long fight for Palm to make it back.
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03-03-2003, 05:31 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,887
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Re: Palm Warning Indicative Of 2003 PDA Market?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
Do you think Palm's problems are indicative of things to come for the entire market or is this a misstep on Palm's part that won't affect HP, Toshiba, Dell, Sony and other handheld manufacturers?
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Nope.
Its indicative of the half-baked state of PALM's product line.
It doesn't exactly help your profitability when SONY is out-engineering your folks with new products on a monthly basis and you counter by shipping over-priced hardware with an incomplete OS and application suite and a blister-pack low-ball version of your previous architecture.
Two thirds of PALMS sold last year were ZIRE's.
That tells you all you need to know about the needs and savvy of the typical PALM customer in 2002-03.
Savvy PALM users know the Tungsten Hardware won't be particularly useful until OS 6 comes out and by then competitive pressures will have brought the product way down in price to keep up with the SONY's, DELL's, and HP's of the world. So pay a premium now? If you need anything better than a ZIRE, today, you know you're not going to get any kind of deal from PALM; you go with a SONY or a PocketPC, instead.
As a result, PALM is imploding.
And this implosion is masking the steady growth of the other PDA vendors, both in the PALM and PocketPC camps.
Just as the merger of the HP and iPaq lines, with the resulting decline in combined HP market share, is masking the emergence of Toshiba and Dell as major players.
It'll be a while before the smoke clears and there is a good chance (say, 60%, maybe more) that when it does, SONY will emerge as the only vendor of PALM-based PDAs left in the business, contending with three major Pocket PC vendors and another five or six wannabes.
At that point, the question for the PALM camp is whether SONY licensing revenue alone can keep PALMsource in business or whether SONY will choose to simply buy them out.
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03-03-2003, 05:33 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Re: Palm Warning Indicative Of 2003 PDA Market?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Felix Torres
Two thirds of PALMS sold last year were ZIRE's.
That tells you all you need to know about the needs and savvy of the typical PALM customer in 2002-03.
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I knew it was a bunch, but 67%? Do you have a link supporting that? I'd like to read it.
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03-03-2003, 05:40 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 405
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Re: Palm Warning Indicative Of 2003 PDA Market?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Felix Torres
At that point, the question for the PALM camp is whether SONY licensing revenue alone can keep PALMsource in business or whether SONY will choose to simply buy them out.
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heh....right on the button......after the depression of course 
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03-03-2003, 05:45 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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What depression?
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03-03-2003, 05:55 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 405
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Foo Fighter
What depression?
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hmmm...... super-inflated housing prices, bad tax cut, gold sales up, entering a war......statistacally we're due.
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