01-03-2003, 09:12 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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My 2003 predictions
A little late, but here are my predictions:
Outlook
Overall, I expect PDA sales to remain flat throughout the year. We won�t see a significant improvement in the mobile device sector until Q2 2004. That�s one prediction I hope I�m wrong about. 
In terms of trends, well this will be the year that we can say goodbye to grayscale displays. By summer, no PDA priced over $100 will have a B&W display. Grayscale is hereby relegated to the sub-100 category. It�s all color from here on out. Also, built-in wireless slowly moves from the high-end to the midrange price scale. We�ll see handhelds with BT for under $299 by Q3.
Enterprise...the final frontier: My prediction: the company (or companies) that win the enterprise will be the one that can deliver cheap, reliable, always on e-mail/messaging services that integrate well with preexisting servers (Exchange). Whomever gets that right the first time gets the gold ring.
PalmOS
OS6 will be released in the fall quarter, with new devices based on it appearing in time for the holiday shopping season. I predict OS6 will be surprisingly innovative and finally infuse some real excitement back into the PalmOS community.
OS5 adoption will be very weak until late spring/early summer when cheaper ARM based hardware appears on the market.
But don�t look for any �killer apps� to appear until OS6.
Palm
Tungsten T sales taper off in January prompting Palm to slash the MSRP to $449, or perhaps even $399. Zire is a surprising hit. Go figure.
Palm will release additions to the Zire and Tungsten lines in the spring. Look for a low-cost color Zire in for $149 or less. And we�ll see some interesting new Tungsten products as well...most notably a smartphone that could give the Treo a run for its money. And Palm will realize its mistake and switch to Transflective color LCDs for its devices, replacing the geriatric Reflective LCDs. Ok, that�s not really a prediction, just my wish. 
Sony
Sony will release a boatload of cool new devices (gosh, there�s a shock). But the biggest bombshell: Sony unveils a handheld gaming device running PalmOS. Think Gameboy killer. We may also see some other nondedicated PDA devices from Sony as well, such as cell phones and MP3 players powered by PalmOS. iPod killer perhaps?
The current T-series will finally be replaced by a new line that features a 320x480 screen (virtual graffiti) starting at $249 or $299. Thank God!
I also expect Sony to beat Palm to market with the first �cheap� color device. A $99 or less unit.
Handspring
Hmm....how can I say this without ticking off the Treo zealots???? Handspring will DIE DIE DIE DIE!! HAHAHAHAHAHA. Just kidding. 
Actually, I expect the company to be bought outright by the end of the year. As sad as that may seem, it is the most likely scenario. They can�t survive as a standalone entity. Even company employees know that. One analyst said, internally, company executives give themselves less 60% chance of survival.
A tragic ending for this one time jewel of the PDA industry.
Pocket PC
There are two converging trends in 2003....smaller form factors....and...wireless. Devices will continue to get thinner, lighter, sleeker, and become more wired...err, I mean wireless. Wireless PPCs will get cheaper as well. I expect to see at least two or three $299 (perhaps less) BT or WiFi based handhelds in time for back to school.
Beyond that, don�t expect PPCs to get any cheaper. We may see some $199 handhelds (without rebates), but I can promise you won�t be seeing a $99 Axim any time soon.
Expect further and further commoditizaton in the PPC market, which is both a positive and negative. Hardware will become stringently standardized which means great things for software development....but it means bad news for those expecting hardware innovation. We�ll never see a Pocket PC competitor to the SONY NX series.
Growth? PPC will finally breach the 20% mark (in the US), but with the poor state of the economy, and increasing competition with PalmOS devices, I don�t expect to grow beyond 25% this year. In global sales, look for 36% share. But PPC does chip away some share of the PalmOS market.
Look for a new version of Pocket PC (based on CE4) by late spring. Many legacy devices are going to be left out in the cold.
Dell
Ok, this isn�t much of a prediction since Dell already leaked the info, but the company will offer a competitor to HP�s 1910 series (X3) and a wireless unit as well (X7). We should see these devices by spring. They might be announced as soon as next week (at CES), but I doubt it.
Axim�s success? My prediction: it doesn�t take off quite so well as many expected. Dell�s direct business model is ineffective on the consumer side. Unless Dell finds a way to get this device in front of consumer faces, it will only succeed in the enterprise.
While AXIM does carve out a respectable chunk of the market for Dell, much of that comes at the expense of other PPC players rather than PalmOS.
Toshiba
Toshiba continues to remain at the bottom of the deck. We could see a few new interesting devices, but I expect them to change their focus and move away from PDAs to Tablet PCs.
HP
HP will continue to battle it out in the enterprise with DELL. Look for some bold moves by both companies in coming moths. Each company will aggressively attempt to tie their mobile strategies into their services strategies. Fasten your seat belts this is going to be a bumpy ride. A word of advice to HP: .....Objects in mirror are closer than they appear!
Smartphones
This is it! The year of the smartphone/ communicator. As much as I love PDAs, I�m afraid the smartphone is destined to make the PDA a dinosaur. I�m sorry, but that�s progress for you.
Cell phones emerge to become the dark horse. PDAs will remain a nice market....a lucrative niche, but a niche nonetheless.
Mobile gaming
Look for more MAJOR labels to jump into the nascent mobile gaming arena. New standards will emerge for cross platform compatibility.
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01-03-2003, 10:31 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 143
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Re: My 2003 predictions
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Originally Posted by Foo Fighter
Toshiba
Toshiba continues to remain at the bottom of the deck. We could see a few new interesting devices, but I expect them to change their focus and move away from PDAs to Tablet PCs.
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I hope not! Toshiba has always been somewhat ahead of the curve:
Toshiba had the 1st sub-$400 Pocket PC (That wasn't on its way out)
Toshiba had the first Pocket PC to include Wi-Fi
Toshiba had the first .5" thick Pocket PC
...the list goes on...
Toshiba... :rock on dude!: Live Long & Prosper!
Everyone else... :robot: Resistance is Futile!
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01-03-2003, 10:33 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 252
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Re: My 2003 predictions
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Originally Posted by Foo Fighter
A little late, but here are my predictions:
Look for a new version of Pocket PC (based on CE4) by late spring. Many legacy devices are going to be left out in the cold.
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You know I could have sworn I read summer when you posted this.
hmmm.
Reading the admittedly generally positive but mixed reviews of the 5400 I have decided to wait. Firstly to see what happens with the next release of the Ipaq (128mb please) and more importantly to avoiding being done over by Compaq again around the OS upgrade.
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01-03-2003, 10:39 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Re: My 2003 predictions
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Originally Posted by dochall
... and more importantly to avoiding being done over by Compaq again around the OS upgrade.
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Yeah, I hated getting "done over" by Compaq when I upgraded my iPAQ 3600 to Pocket PC 2002. I would have much rather been "done over" by HP and Casio. :roll:
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01-03-2003, 10:40 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Re: My 2003 predictions
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Originally Posted by dochall
You know I could have sworn I read summer when you posted this.
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It did say summer. I made the correction because I meant to say spring. I don't think MS has ever launched a WinCE release in the summer.
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01-03-2003, 10:47 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 137
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I hope you're right about a new PPC OS in the spring. I've been holding off on buying a new one only because MS is due for a new OS (every 1.5 years, correct?).
I own a first generation PPC (2000) but I'm hoping that legacy devices aren't completely left out in the cold. Other than support for higher screen resolution I don't see why 2002 devices couldn't be flash upgraded. There must have been something to convince Dell to put in that 48MB ROM. 8O
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01-03-2003, 10:48 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Re: My 2003 predictions
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
Yeah, I hated getting "done over" by Compaq when I upgraded my iPAQ 3600 to Pocket PC 2002.
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Yes, I was pleasantly surprised by how well Compaq handled the upgrade, only charging a nominal fee. There was bug in the ROM setup that laid waste to many iPaqs, but they resolved the issue and supported broken devices. That was one reason why Compaq's line has remained so strong...they stood by their product. Unlike some companies....*ahem* Sony.
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01-03-2003, 11:17 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 25
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Foo, I am going to say that serious PPC video has been knocked out of the ring for another year by the miserable lower speed XScale processors and the lack of support for third party developers. It is ironic that the thing that made the first WinCE PDA hot on the E-100 has been pretty much forgotten by Microsoft (no XScale support), the OEMs (which are supporting XScale) and Intel which released a lower performance chip while hyping 400MHz. Worse yet, if HP should falter as some are now saying, this could be a very sad year for the PPC in general!
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01-03-2003, 11:25 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 593
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I think it is important to look at the beginning of a new era, handheld computers. Not just minimized OSes, but the OQO and the IBM Metapad will be important acheivements. Of course it wouldn't be perfected this year, but face it, 10 years from now the handheld will have full OSes.
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01-03-2003, 11:33 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,023
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Quote:
Axim�s success? My prediction: it doesn�t take off quite so well as many expected. Dell�s direct business model is ineffective on the consumer side. Unless Dell finds a way to get this device in front of consumer faces, it will only succeed in the enterprise.
While AXIM does carve out a respectable chunk of the market for Dell, much of that comes at the expense of other PPC players rather than PalmOS.
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I'd sure love to know where you get these figures from. Have you been watching the Dell forum? The number of users who's first PPC is Dell? The number of new Dell owners from palms? With just about every major review source like C|Net pulling for it, once the X3 and X7 hit the market as well, I'm betting Axim is going to be one very common name. (more so) It seems to me you base this more on your dislike (or your perceived dislike by others) of Dell's direct business model than the Pocket PC or it's sales.
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