11-22-2002, 06:38 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Foo Fighter's 2002 PDA predictions...
Read: http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread...DA+predictions
So how did I do?
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2002 will be a recovery year for Palm. It will struggle throughout the first quarter, but will make a strong rebound by Q2 carried on the wings of new innovative devices, and improved functionality (such as the i705). Further, Palm will settle on one device to occupy the low and mid-range segment of the market. No more M100/105/125. Just one unit. The high-end will see the most makeover, with the M505 being replaced by a high resolution device that will compete against the Sony Clie 600/615C. All of these devices will sell @ $399. Palm will also bite the bullet and produce a multimedia capable device, finally.
The transition to OS 5 will not be quite as smooth as Palm users may have wanted, but it will be successful. The next generation OS will draw a wave of new developers (not just Palm developers) to the new platform. Look for incredible new applications (and Games) to rock your world!
Palm will begin developing and licensing operating systems for a wide array of devices (other than PDAs) ranging from MP3 players to digital cameras to Set Top boxes.
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Well, this was a recovery year for Palm. They gained marketshare, they reorganized, and are in the process of spinning off the OS group from the rest of the company. I was also right that Palm would settle on one device for the low-end; Zire. Still no mid-range device though. And they did release a multimedia device...sort of; Tungsten.
OS5 devices were much later to the market than I expected though.
I hit the nail on the head about PalmOS moving into other devices like MP3 players...but not until next year at the earliest. Fossil is an example.
Score: 6
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After releasing a throng of the innovative multimedia rich PDAs, at much lower prices, PocketPCs marketshare (in the consumer space) will slowly be eaten away by Sony. A robust new line of Clies introduced in the spring, will reinvigorate the Palm platform and continue to draw power users, and would be defectors, away from PocketPC."
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Ding ding! We have a winner. Sony surpassed HP as the number two handheld maker, and saw its marketshare skyrocket. And the NR/NX series did win over MANY Pocket PC converts.
Score: 10
Quote:
The Treo will sell fairly well among PDA enthusiasts, but is not the high volume mover than Hawkins had hoped. The company will continue to bleed red ink, and struggle to become profitable, but ultimately fails. This combined with the flop of Springboard, begins to erode confidence in the handheld maker. By Q4 of 2002, or Q1 of 2003, Handspring finally gives up the ghost. Handspring either goes bankrupt, or is acquired by a mobile phone maker such as Samsung or Nokia, for its intellectual property. Hawkins goes back to Palm to head the hardware division.
Scenario B: Handspring, despite its cash problems and lackluster products, receives a heavy infusion of cash from another entity. In which case, the company floats along, but with a new focus.
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Ding ding again. Treo was a dud, and they are still in the toilet. Handspring did get an infusion of cash (from Qualcomm) and they did change their focus to communicators.
But they didn't go bankrupt. Oh well, better luck next time. 
Score: 5
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2002 will be a year of decline for PocketPC, thanks in part to the high price of PPC handhelds, which seems to be spiraling out of control. And by the mediocre spending habits of consumers and business during the souring economy. Consumer electronics retailers such as Best Buy and Circuit City will begin dropping some models from their inventory as lower priced (and more popular) color PalmOS devices occupy the shelves. PocketPC will fall further and further into niche status, and will become strictly a corporate appliance.
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Ok. 2002 was a year of decline for PPC....in the US. Globally, it did see growth (current at 28%). And consumer electronics stores did drop some models like Audiovox and Casio.
Still, I was wrong about how severe PPC would slide.
Score: 3
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Casio leaves the field. With an array of innovative devices from new licensees such as Toshiba and NEC, Casio will be squeezed out. By Q4, Casio will cease production of PPC devices, and leave the PDA space altogether.
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SCORE! 
Score: 10
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IPaq continues to whoop ass! Despite all the new cool PPC gadgets hitting the market, the iPaq will continue to be the leader among PocketPCs, followed closely by the Jornada. Toshiba and NEC will grab the number 3 spot in relative proximity.
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He shoots....he SCORES!
Score: 10
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Cell phones will begin to give PDAs a run for their money in 2002. By adding color displays, multimedia rich features, and wireless web access, IM, and email on the go, cell phones will get the jump on PDAs and become the mobile device of choice among consumers. PDAs will slowly fall into niche status, but will continue to grow at a healthy rate
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Hmm...well there is no doubt the Cell phone market really surged ahead this year with new exciting products that compete head to head with high-end PDAs..and the PDA market did shrink. But they didn't topple PDAs.
Score: 5
All in all....not too bad. Beat that, Miss Cleo! :rock on dude!:
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11-22-2002, 08:54 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,051
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I'm glad I didn't have you as an Instructor in college - You grade very hard. Considering these prediction were made in Feb. I thought you were to tough on yourself. I agree with the 10's, but would have changed each of the others to 7's or 8's. To give yourself a "3" on the PPC slide, whew, that's a tough grade.
Great job. Very interesting reading.
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11-22-2002, 09:35 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by shawnc
Considering these prediction were made in Feb.
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Not February, December.
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11-24-2002, 03:05 AM
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Magi
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,341
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I predict that by the end of the year Foo will own a Pocket PC!
Any takers?
Dave
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11-24-2002, 05:19 AM
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,998
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So...when can we expect the 2003 edition?
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11-25-2002, 01:04 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JR
So...when can we expect the 2003 edition?
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Probably early next month. My head is still spinning from these low priced Pocket PCs. Never did see that one coming. 8O
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11-25-2002, 03:23 AM
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Theorist
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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And they did release a multimedia device...sort of; Tungsten
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I think it (the Tungsten) qualifies as a multimedia device, in that it's capable... although I guess I'll concede the "sort of", seeing as how Palm shipped it without an MP3 player (how dumb was THAT?)
Anyway - good job on the predictions! Now, oh knower of the unknown - can you predict when Amazon will ship my Viewsonic V35? LOL
__________________
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