10-22-2002, 12:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Nokia Shoots Ahead... I Guess
http://www.canalys.com/pr/r2002102.htm
Canalys has released its market share report for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) for the third quarter of 2002. Nokia has rocketed to first place with 56% of the market on sales of their new 7650. They did the same thing last year with their 9210 Communicator, which to me says "big deal." They launched another phone.
"With huge shipments of the Nokia 7650, Symbian's market share reached an all-time high of 57%. "We've seen Symbian surge before," said Canalys director and senior analyst Chris Jones. "When the Nokia 9210 Communicator hit the shelves one year ago. This is quite common when a new product launches, but often proves unsustainable. We knew there would be another one this quarter, but the 7650 is aimed at a wider audience and the indications from the channel are much more positive this time. The 7650 is being helped by high-profile promotion from Nokia and from the operators desperate to get people onto MMS, and the device is being subsidised heavily to make it affordable to the consumer market."
Maybe I just don't get it. I personally don't see the relation of the Nokia 7600 or even the hulking Communicator to PDAs. They are not at all going after the same market and when it comes to third party applications, multimedia, office suite compatibility, the Nokia devices just aren't in the same league as PDAs. Compared to last year, Palm is up 33% and compared to Q2 2002, up 19%. HP is up almost 5% versus last year but down 29% from last quarter. Handspring and Toshiba also show movement, but in decidely different directions. Handspring has been dropped from the details and moved into Other and Toshiba has been brought out of Other. There isn't much detail on either as a result of the classification change. Q4 should really prove interesting for a few reasons. Palm devices with OS 5 start shipping, the $99 Zire is shipping, Dell, ViewSonic and HP all have $299 and lower priced Pocket PCs and HP's Pocket PC leader iPAQ launches the 5000 high end series.
I've included a few tables on this info, all pulled from the Canalys reports for Q3 and Q2. You can see them by clicking the more link.
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10-22-2002, 04:14 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 257
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Nokia
Its not Nokia that Smartphone or Pocket PC phone edition need to worry about - its the symbian based OS that is being put in these devices. First there was the 9210 - a bit of a brick but this really helped Nokia and Symbian sales last year. Now we have the Nokia 7650 which is doing the same thing (boosting symbian/nokia sales). I have the 9210 and have used (briefly) the 7650. Both are good devices but not good enough to make me give up my Ipaq. The concern for pocket pc is that these devices are improving and quickly - The new sony ericsson P800 is alleged to be a killer device and I am seriously considering it as my next phone/pda. I spoke to s/e last week about the delayed release and they said there had been some issues but they have resolved them now -they also told me that they were getting 50 calls a day asking when the device would be released - the caller before me was a corporate customer looking for 2000 of the devices before Xmas.
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10-22-2002, 04:18 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 556
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Which will survive, a dumbed down PDA or souped up Smartphone?
I believe the latter, the 7650 and it's new cousin the 3650 with built in video recording and MMC memory slot is the user friendly version of what pocket pc users are still having to cob together from various sources.
www.allabouter6.com
See the stuff you can do 
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10-22-2002, 04:29 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 390
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Nokia's symbian phones really don't connect well to Desktop application and enterprise data server. So who cares, it's a phone on steroid.
Just a quick note. did anybody notice the Palm vs. PPC unit number?
The Q3 shipment is within 20K unit compare to Q3 '01 65K units.
It is possible without counting Zire PPC will overtake Palm by Q4! This is 2 years a head of schedule. Yikes.
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10-22-2002, 06:29 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 556
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The 7650 does most things thats the low end PDA users wants (i.e. basic contacts, diary, e-mail) and in a small package. Symbian OS makes this easy, whats more the higher end will be catered for by devices like the P800. The 7650 should be included in such stats (but we should pay attention that its not a traditional PDA). Kinda blows the whole Symbian ain't anywhere argument. Imagine what the 14 new Symbian phones over the next 4 months will do to these figures.
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10-22-2002, 06:33 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 414
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I saw a color phone last week at Best Buy. TINY little screen! But the device was very small and it was only $200 without a service plan. Microsoft has done well to recognize that Palm will battle it at the low end, but the volume threat is smart phones like the Sony Ericson. Microsoft has been promising a smartphone for a year, spreading Fear, uncertainty, and doubt. They have perhaps prevented a number of Samsung Palm phone sales with their promise to deliver a smart phone with the Sendo a year ago.
But, they have not kept people in Europe from buying Nokia Symbians. If Symbian could only make enough money off of these to get Quartz back up and running.
As it is they will have the 800 with camera and the SmartPhones may have to go back to the drawing boards again. MS always seems to take two or three tries to get an OS right anyway. If they don't do SmartPhone right the first time (one way they could do this is support all the US cell protocols right out of the gate.) Nokia will have a big lead on them for some time.
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10-22-2002, 07:09 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 252
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Timothy Rapson
But, they have not kept people in Europe from buying Nokia Symbians. If Symbian could only make enough money off of these to get Quartz back up and running.
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TBH at the moment it is a totally bogus comparison. None of the Symbian OEMs have managed to actually produce a PDA worth discussing as yet. The closest has been the 9210 but you don't see them flying of shelves.
The Palm OS is only represented (in the uk at least) by the Handspring Treo with the vast empahsis on the PDA marketplace.
From the MS arena no smartphones and only the XDA as phone edition (and only available on one of four networks)
It too early to draw any real conclusions with regard to the Symbian/MS debate apart from the obvious that Symbian is kicking ass due to the lead time. This is due to their OEM's and has very little to do with the fact their running EPOC. The Symbian coalition has been together for at least of a couple of years and we have seen the 9210, the 7650 and the vaporware P800. If MS can really get a good market share for smartphones it may well be as much to do with Symbian's OEMs inablity to get product to market as much as anything to do with what MS does.
Timothy - Symbian's money has got little to do with the lack of quartz devices. More correctly Psion's money has something to do with it, however the model that they were producing with Motorola, 'ODIN' was a pearl smartphone not a quartz device.
If any of the Symbian OEM's choose to produce a quartz device then things may get more interesting. We saw a couple of years ago an interesting Quartz concept from Ericsson but it certainly doesn't appear to have got any closer to market. The P800 is another Pearl device.
The most interesting figures here are a straight comparison of the Palm to PPC device market shares which makes very good reading if you work for MS.
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10-22-2002, 08:22 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 75
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Some thoughts....
I think the 9200 series "phones" from Nokia are targeted directly at PDA users. It has one of the best keyboards on any handheld device I have tried. The high resolution screen is great. Built-in Support for viewing PowerPoint. Works great with Outlook. I think writing Email/SMS/Word documents is easier on Communicator than any PocketPC thanks to the keyboard. Viewing webpages on the wide screen looks better than the narrow screen on PocketPC too.
I don't use my 9110 because I want a small phone and a larger PDA. This is also why I didn't get the 9210 (It doesn't have GPRS either).
I read somewhere (I think on this site), that Microsoft expects there to be A LOT MORE SmartPhones than PocketPCs. The percentage difference was amazing. These SmartPhones are selling for the same price as low-end PDAs so why should a company get into the PDA market if you are killing everyone in the SmartPhone market?
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10-22-2002, 08:37 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 513
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A relative bought the 7650 overseas recently. I'll get to check it out when he gets here...
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10-22-2002, 09:01 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 24
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dochall
If any of the Symbian OEM's choose to produce a quartz device then things may get more interesting. We saw a couple of years ago an interesting Quartz concept from Ericsson but it certainly doesn't appear to have got any closer to market. The P800 is another Pearl device.
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I don't think you'reuptodate. The P800 is a UIQ or thin Quartz device. Pearl has effectively been replaced by Series 60 (same scale). The P800 will compete with the PPC and Palm, and first indicatiosn are that it will perform very well - its no known as the Palm Killer for nothing you know.
Quartz and Pearl are odl category names that don't really apply anymore. They were UI's and UI's are more manufacturer specific. We know about Series 60 and UIQ which are roughly equiavalent to Quartz / Crystal. But there are further UI's on the way.
What most people fail to realise is that Symbian will win the smartphone market, mcuh as ms looks set to win the palm like pda market. The smartphone is a much bigger market (see the figures) and ms wants in.
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