12-24-2003, 02:50 AM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 544
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Computerworld's 2004 Predictions
Michael Gartenberg's latest column for Computerworld discusses his predictions for 2004. "This is my favorite time of year. I'm not talking about the holidays, the good cheer and season's greetings. I mean Prediction Season, when everyone with an opinion publishes a list of what he thinks lies ahead. In the spirit of that season, here's my 2004 Top 10 forecast."
There are some interesting predictions here and it's well worth a read. The only one that really struck me was the top item on his list:
"Converged devices will remain a niche. Despite all the hype, converged mobile devices still won't have strong appeal in the market, and no device that attempts to integrate three or more primary functions will win over the marketplace. Users are willing to carry up to three devices. Handheld adoption will be driven by primary intended use, with secondary functions only contributing value to the product, not serving as the reason for buying it."
A mass-market device can't integrate more than 2 primary functions? I don't think that's true. Sure, it will require a lot of work on usability and interface design to make a device that has a lot of features without discouraging the average consumer but it is certainly an achievable goal - and I do not believe that we are very far from getting there. I have no doubt that a device which can surf the web, send/receive email, play music, synchronize with Outlook's calendar/contacts, and make phone calls has a very strong appeal to average consumers. Add on the slew of 3rd party applications and killer pricing of some devices (MPx200 is still $0 from Amazon.com) and I find it hard to imagine that converged devices will be a niche market for much longer. I am predicting that we will see about a dozen Smartphone devices launched around the world during 2004. Combined with devices from Microsoft's competitors, we're on the verge of very something big here.
What do you think?
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