04-12-2003, 11:14 PM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Originally Posted by Duncan
Walking through my local town on an average day there are people using their phones all over the place. Walking around in New York it seemed to be fairly unusual to see someone on a mobile. The contrast was enough to be noticeable.
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How long ago have you been in NYC, Duncan? If anything, I miss the days when every person didn't have a wireless phone.
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I have no interest in which is better out of CDMA or GSM. That is as irrelevant as arguing whether Betamax was better than VHS.
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Indeed, since GSM is going CDMA, the argument gets more interesting in the long-term.
--janak
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04-12-2003, 11:32 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,468
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How long ago have you been in NYC, Duncan? If anything, I miss the days when every person didn't have a wireless phone.
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About a year - and I'm sorry but on a straight comparison mobile use in NYC was very low key...
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Indeed, since GSM is going CDMA, the argument gets more interesting in the long-term.
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Well - in theory GSM will be succeeded by WCDMA - which is almost but not quite the same thing - but which may mean an eventual universal 3G standard. I'm not going to hold my breath though. GSM/GPRS is going to be dominant for several years to come since WCDMA is proving to be less than compelling as a mass appeal technology...
I think guessing the future (even 5 years from now) of mobile phone tech is a bit like guessing the existence of DVDs back when the VHS/Betamax war was running - i.e. it is unlikely to fit in with any of the models we currently have...
However - I'll guess this - GSM/GPRS will still be the dominant tech for a while and conventional CDMA will continue to have severe limits to its expansion...
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04-13-2003, 12:07 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Originally Posted by Duncan
About a year - and I'm sorry but on a straight comparison mobile use in NYC was very low key...
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Heh. I wonder if it's penetration, as virtually everyone I know has a mobile phone, or just usage patterns. Agreed, mobile phone use is greater in Europe, but I like to think we're not that far behind. 
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Well - in theory GSM will be succeeded by WCDMA - which is almost but not quite the same thing - but which may mean an eventual universal 3G standard. I'm not going to hold my breath though. GSM/GPRS is going to be dominant for several years to come since WCDMA is proving to be less than compelling as a mass appeal technology...
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Well, that's what I meant by "interesting". The upgrade roadmap from GSM -> WCDMA is tougher than IS-95 CDMA -> cdma2000, so we might see more compelling implementations of the latter before the former.
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However - I'll guess this - GSM/GPRS will still be the dominant tech for a while and conventional CDMA will continue to have severe limits to its expansion...
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Probably. Still, that doesn't really excuse MS from partnering with a CDMA manufacturer, like Samsung, to get the CDMA Smartphone out of the door. Samsung's made a lot of money on CDMA phones, despite the relatively smaller market. Otherwise, why are they releasing the SPH-i700 Pocket PC Phone?
--janak
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04-13-2003, 01:05 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,468
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Heh. I wonder if it's penetration, as virtually everyone I know has a mobile phone, or just usage patterns.
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One thing I know - so many times I've watched Buffy, when one character desperately has to let another know something from across town, and found myself thinking that if it was set in the UK they'd just use their mobiles... :wink:
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Well, that's what I meant by "interesting". The upgrade roadmap from GSM -> WCDMA is tougher than IS-95 CDMA -> cdma2000, so we might see more compelling implementations of the latter before the former.
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Maybe BUT most first and second gen WCDMA phones will be combo GPRS units making the upgrade path actually smoother in some respects. If I were to buy one of the new 3G phones in the UK - it will shift to GPRS whenever I enter an area without coverage. Even in the UK, with much resistance to 3G, there will be two 3G networks by the end of 2003. Then there is a new GPRS tech, a kind of 2.75G, that will improve speeds of GPRS phones dramatically - offering speeds that rival CDMA2000 (not sure how it works mind!).
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