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View Full Version : Mobile Opportunity: Will the Smartphone Kill the PC?


Janak Parekh
10-21-2006, 07:00 PM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2006/10/will-smartphone-kill-pc.html' target='_blank'>http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.c...ne-kill-pc.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"The quotes coming out of London this week had me wondering: Is Symbian's management insane? Or are they just posturing? Here's what they said: 'The personal computer as we know it will soon be dead, replaced by rapidly growing demand for smart mobile devices, according to the head of Symbian.' --IT Pro. They sound disturbingly like some of the most enthusiastic PDA enthusiasts did in 2000. I cringed then, and I cringe now. Here's why..."</i><br /><br />And, with that, Mike Mace pens a succinct, but very interesting post about the difference of Smartphones and desktop computers, and where the future lies for both. I think most Windows Mobile devices, including Pocket PCs and Pocket PC Phones, fall largely in the Smartphone category as well. I know we have a few hardcore users that use the Pocket PCs more than desktops for "creation", but I agree with Mike: their value is in information <i>access</i>. Now, what Microsoft really needs to do is to make that access more seamless -- I <i>still</i> have to work too hard to sync information and tools onto my Treo. Just because "Smartphones" don't replace computers doesn't mean that I should have to tether the two to get information transferred.

SteveHoward999
10-21-2006, 07:37 PM
I think when you add up all the uncertainties, it'll be another six years at least before you see a fully functional PC replacement as small as a mobile phone (in other words, it's beyond any realistic product planning horizon today). By that time, something the size of a PC will be even more powerful, and people may well trade up to that.


I think he's missing the point. He's not thinking out the box enough and is thinking too much about what 'conventional' computing has done.

First, a simple fact.

I was at a developer's conference recently. Not a big flashy Microsoft conference, but a 'real world' multimedia developer's conference. Among us were several world-recognised gurus, always known for being cutting-edge developers. Not one had a laptop less than three years old, when in the past all would have had new machines. Why? The older machines are plenty powerful enough for all the multimedia applications in use, so why bother with a new machine? Also, it seems to be harder and harder to find machines with hi-res screens (i.e. 1400x1050, 1600x1200 or better).

This is a recent trend - one where older machines are completely up to the job and there is no need to upgrade to remain productive and competetive. Obviously Vista will change that, for a short while at least.

Also, Mike Mace is not considering what pocket devices could evolve into - the could have wireless keyboards, internal projection screens, wireless pointers and wireless access to external screens. Then with appropriate upgrades to RAM, processor etc there is little reason to presume, IMHO, that the mobile device cannot be as powerful, if not more so, as todays desktop machines.

As for whether the OS of choice will be Symbian or Windows, or Linux or whatever ... frankly I can see the choice of OS becomming of less relevance over the next decade.

jickbahtech
10-21-2006, 08:01 PM
Why does the device have to be all or nothing? I think OQO's model will be the next step.
On the go, you have a powerful smartphone, that when you get home (or to work, or the library, etc), you plug into a cradle that hooks up to a monitor, keyboard, mouse, speakers, and THATS your home computer. Onthe go you dont really need folding screens or projectors or anything like that (I could just see commuters here in LA trying to mess with that), but I could see a few terminals set up at Starbucks for you to plug your phone into. I already kinda do this with my 6700, WM5torage, and a host of portable apps.

I could see something like this happening in the next 5-10 years for people that wont need dual 32 core Xeons...

SteveHoward999
10-21-2006, 08:46 PM
Why does the device have to be all or nothing?...

it doesn't. But it could be pretty powerful :-)

alese
10-21-2006, 09:43 PM
I agree that most of the content creation will stay on the "full size" PC.

But at least on WM, you can allready create content using stuff like foldable keyboard, software like Text Maker and VGA screen...
Also there are UMPCs.

I don't know about USA, but here in Europe everyone has a mobile phone and more and more people are using their phones for more and more "computer" stuff, not only for communication but also for PIM, data storage, GPS navigation...

SteveHoward999
10-22-2006, 12:21 AM
I don't know about USA, but ...

The US is behind Europe with mobile devices, especially phones. With a cultural preference for Palm and cell phone companies who have a stranglehold on their customers, and stringint FCC(?) rules to pass each time a radio device is to be approved for sale it is taking the US longer than Europe and other countries to get rolling fully.

Heck I got a Cingular contract with unlimited 'high speed' internet access a couple of months ago, thinking this should be good, only to find it was really no better than the GPRS connection I got with T-Mobile or whoever in the UK 4 years ago.

But things are getting better. Then, I think, the US will better understand where mobile devices can really take them. Not that the geeks don't see it, but the less addicted users tend not to quite see it the way Europe and the far east do.

Twain
10-22-2006, 03:22 AM
Now, what Microsoft really needs to do is to make that access more seamless -- I still have to work too hard to sync information and tools onto my Treo.
Can you elaborate on where you are having to work hard to sync information and tools? I have a Treo and haven't had problems. I may not be on the cutting edge though, in terms of what I need synchronized.

Twain

Janak Parekh
10-22-2006, 06:24 PM
Can you elaborate on where you are having to work hard to sync information and tools? I have a Treo and haven't had problems. I may not be on the cutting edge though, in terms of what I need synchronized.
I was particularly thinking about the lack of a robust wireless sync option. Out of the box, the only way to sync with WM5 is via USB/Bluetooth against a desktop or with an Exchange Server. I actually use the latter a lot, but it's very limited:

- No Notes sync
- No files sync
- No app installs
- No third-party conduits

... etc. Some of this can be worked around (e.g., file transfer online, or to/from SD card), but it's not nearly as seamless as I'd like it to be. AS 3.x was better in supporting LAN sync, but even then, that LAN sync was cumbersome to use at best over the Internet.

--janak

Janak Parekh
10-22-2006, 06:30 PM
But things are getting better. Then, I think, the US will better understand where mobile devices can really take them. Not that the geeks don't see it, but the less addicted users tend not to quite see it the way Europe and the far east do.
Hang on a second. I'm a mobile power user, and I've seen and interacted with European wireless technologies, and I fail to see how that changes the original post's view about content creation and the like, unless you're talking about the pervasive use of mobile cameras and moblogging, which I only consider a niche.

If anything, most European mobiles, even the advanced ones, shun the QWERTY layout; QWERTY is far more pervasive in the US thanks to adoption of the Blackberry and its friends. Then there's touch screens, which are often useful in content creation. Most Symbian devices are Series 60 and such, with no touch screens. Sure, there's UIQ, Series 80, etc., but they have significantly less adoption. I'd be curious to see numbers on touch screen adoption, but my first guess is, again, that US adoption is higher.

I readily accept that wireless penetration is higher in Europe, and the time-to-market of new technologies is shorter, and that our carriers are terrible technology inhibitors, control freaks, closed-system operators, etc. But that's a different point. ;)

--janak

p.s. If you want 3G, the way to go in the US right now is Verizon/Sprint. Both have significant 3G rollouts, and I get fast EVDO performance in most of the New York metropolitan area.

Janak Parekh
10-22-2006, 06:34 PM
But at least on WM, you can allready create content using stuff like foldable keyboard, software like Text Maker and VGA screen...
Sure, and I've owned TextMaker. But I'd consider it far more useful for minor edits, etc., then to create large amount of content. Now, will some use it for writing long papers? Sure, but I don't see the majority adopting it, for some of the reasons discussed earlier (stable platform, hardware limitations, etc.)

Also there are UMPCs.
Yes, this is one interesting future platform for mobile content creation. However, UMPCs are really desktop-platform based. They're a far cry from Symbian or Windows Mobile. In that sense, are we greying what mobile means? Yes, I'd accept that. However, the article was penned in response to comments made by mobile OS vendors.

I don't know about USA, but here in Europe everyone has a mobile phone and more and more people are using their phones for more and more "computer" stuff, not only for communication but also for PIM, data storage, GPS navigation...
I argue that most of what you just said fits Mike's vision perfectly: information access -- playing music, reading news, looking up contacts, navigation.

--janak

Janak Parekh
10-22-2006, 06:37 PM
Also, Mike Mace is not considering what pocket devices could evolve into - the could have wireless keyboards, internal projection screens, wireless pointers and wireless access to external screens.
Actually, the technology for all of this is here today. Heck, even back in 2001 I had an iPAQ with a PC sleeve, wireless, unfoldable keyboard, etc. I ended up ditching most of it for a laptop. It was just too awkward to use, and at that point the amount of pieces I had to carry was onerous.

As for whether the OS of choice will be Symbian or Windows, or Linux or whatever ... frankly I can see the choice of OS becomming of less relevance over the next decade.
... and, in fact, he mentioned exactly that. :) I think he tacitly admits his current set of arguments are germane for the next 5-6 years or so, and after that we'll see what the future cooks up.

--janak

SteveHoward999
10-22-2006, 08:58 PM
But things are getting better. Then, I think, the US will better understand where mobile devices can really take them.
Hang on a second. I'm a mobile power user, and I've seen and interacted with European wireless technologies, and I fail to see how that changes the original post's view about content creation and the like, unless you're talking about the pervasive use of mobile cameras and moblogging, which I only consider a niche.

p.s. If you want 3G, the way to go in the US right now is Verizon/Sprint. Both have significant 3G rollouts, and I get fast EVDO performance in most of the New York metropolitan area.


Note what I said

better understand where mobile devices can really take them

I'm referring to an understanding of what mobile devices could be not what they are today. Most people in America are still seeing the PDA/Cellphone as a fancy calendar with email. Peopleelsewhere are seeing them more as life devices. That means the vision for such devices has fewer constraints on possibility compared to the US point of view that is coloured byt he limitations of Blackberry and Palm devices.

Oh - yippee for New York Metropolitan Area. Not much use in the woods of Mississippi though, huh? ;-)

SteveHoward999
10-22-2006, 09:02 PM
Also, Mike Mace is not considering what pocket devices could evolve into - the could have wireless keyboards, internal projection screens, wireless pointers and wireless access to external screens.
Actually, the technology for all of this is here today. Heck, even back in 2001 I had an iPAQ with a PC sleeve, wireless, unfoldable keyboard, etc. I ended up ditching most of it for a laptop. It was just too awkward to use, and at that point the amount of pieces I had to carry was onerous.

Yes I know that some of that technology has been around for a while, There's still no way for any device to wirelessly utilise any external monitor. There is still no way to walk up to any convenient keyboard/mouse/monitor and instantly have your mobile device use them just like a PC can, only wirelessly.

Mobile devices are still a long way from there, but when they get there then the possibility of replacing a PC with a pocketable device is very real.

alese
10-22-2006, 10:29 PM
...
Sure, and I've owned TextMaker. But I'd consider it far more useful for minor edits, etc., then to create large amount of content. Now, will some use it for writing long papers? Sure, but I don't see the majority adopting it, for some of the reasons discussed earlier (stable platform, hardware limitations, etc.)
...
I don't think writing long papers with TextMaker has much to do with it's limitations (it is very capable Word Processor). It has more to do with lack of "real" input method and especially screen size/resolution.
But it is allready possible to atach some phones (symbian mostly) to an external display and BT keyboard/mouse can give you decent enough input capability.


...
Also there are UMPCs.
Yes, this is one interesting future platform for mobile content creation. However, UMPCs are really desktop-platform based. They're a far cry from Symbian or Windows Mobile. In that sense, are we greying what mobile means? Yes, I'd accept that. However, the article was penned in response to comments made by mobile OS vendors.

...
I argue that most of what you just said fits Mike's vision perfectly: information access -- playing music, reading news, looking up contacts, navigation.
...

Two things.
First I don't think that Symbian is going to be a dominant mobile platform in coming years. It is now, but things change, and Microsoft (possibly also Linux) are better candidates in my opinion. What kind of an OS will eventually win "desktop" or "mobile", is another thing.
Second, I agree with Mike's notion that creating "serious" content on the go is not something people will or even want to do.
Do you really want to write a long paper on a subway, and if you do, would you rather use laptop or a phone with qwerty keyboard?
Me personally, I would write the text using my mobile device and do the formating later on a proper screen with "real" keyboard.
But I don't like notebooks, they are big and heavy for carriyng around and I don't like notebook's touchpads.
Now if I can do all this using only one device, that can attach to screen and keyboard, why not...

TOCA
10-22-2006, 10:41 PM
The thought of using a PPC as a mobile home computer, with a kind of dockingstation connected to a fullsize keyboard, mouse, and big screen, at home/work, died imo. when HP/Compaq left their jacket system, and the CF port was abandonned.

Without those two, and more devices going for micro SD, there's only BT and WiFi left for connection to peripherrial devices, the devellopment for that direction is set back to 1999.

I don't see anny PDA replacing the PC, anny time soon, espesially since their devellopment is going more, and more towards entertainment machines, and GPS devices, and leaving the original PDA functionallity to traditional cellphones.

Some years ago, there was a huge devellopment in CF cards, with connectabillity as the main issue (VGA-out, WAN, dubble USB ports, etc.), that has stopped now, since no one needs it annymore, just like the PCMCIA card that was abandonned last year, by laptop devellopers.

So until conectabillity comes back, as an issue, on PDA's, it's not going to replace anny laptop (or desktop) for real.

Just my 2 cents :?

Janak Parekh
10-23-2006, 03:08 AM
I'm referring to an understanding of what mobile devices could be not what they are today. Most people in America are still seeing the PDA/Cellphone as a fancy calendar with email.
Yeah, I do understand your point, but I disagree with it. As one of my earlier posts pointed out, if anything, the Smartphones we have in the US are just as, if not more so, geared towards "information creation" than the devices I've seen out-and-around Europe.

Oh - yippee for New York Metropolitan Area. Not much use in the woods of Mississippi though, huh? ;-)
What I was trying to say was that Cingular has by far the smallest 3G footprint amongst the three 3G-enabled carriers, and that you'd have better luck with one of the CDMA providers if you could deal with their onerous restrictions. Heck, they only advertise covering half of Manhattan with HSDPA -- and Manhattan's the densest county in the United States, by far. That said, I looked up Jackson in both Verizon and Sprint, and looks like you're stuck with 1xRTT as the fastest wireless data... which, actually, is quite a bit faster than GPRS, but it's no EVDO.

Yes I know that some of that technology has been around for a while, There's still no way for any device to wirelessly utilise any external monitor.
Actually, there have been monitor projection tools for Pocket PCs for quite some time. I remember folks using the dual PC sleeve and inserting a VGA adapter as one of the PC cards. There were also CF VGA adapters, and even an SD one (http://www.margi.com/products/prod_ptg.htm).

There is still no way to walk up to any convenient keyboard/mouse/monitor and instantly have your mobile device use them just like a PC can, only wirelessly.
Well, so this is an interesting vision. My question to you is, if you do exactly that, are you using a mobile device, or a portable desktop device? ;) And would you be happier using Symbian (or even Windows Mobile) on that desktop environment?

(And, with that SD card and Bluetooth, it's actually possible, if not convenient.)

--janak

Janak Parekh
10-23-2006, 03:12 AM
Do you really want to write a long paper on a subway, and if you do, would you rather use laptop or a phone with qwerty keyboard?
Me personally, I would write the text using my mobile device and do the formating later on a proper screen with "real" keyboard.
But I don't like notebooks, they are big and heavy for carriyng around and I don't like notebook's touchpads.
Now if I can do all this using only one device, that can attach to screen and keyboard, why not...
Good points. Sure, I'd love to ditch the 5.4 pounds of Powerbook I carry around everywhere. However, I'm not personally convinced I'd use Pocket PC for everything. (Admittedly, my Computer Science background may affect my opinion here, as I tend to push my computers pretty heavily.)

Maybe a DualCor-like unit would be the solution, with both a mobile OS for quick PIM tasks and a full PC when I need full-blown tools. But if everyone's carrying DualCors one day, I'd claim that the PC is far from dead; it's adapted.

--janak

wshwe
10-23-2006, 06:22 AM
For the forseeable future smartphones will not kill laptops. Smartphone screens are far too small for extensive reading or work. Thumb boards are too small for extended typing.

alese
10-23-2006, 10:06 AM
Yes I know that some of that technology has been around for a while, There's still no way for any device to wirelessly utilise any external monitor.
Actually, there have been monitor projection tools for Pocket PCs for quite some time. I remember folks using the dual PC sleeve and inserting a VGA adapter as one of the PC cards. There were also CF VGA adapters, and even an SD one (http://www.margi.com/products/prod_ptg.htm).


Actually there is only one WM device that has decent Video out capabilities, the Axim x50v/51v. All other cards and devices are not really usefull - the output is slow, or in case of one SD card it is actually only displaying still JPEGs. And if you use a card to output to outside screen, you typically use your only slot (storage).
There are however some Symbian devices that have Video out capability.

SteveHoward999
10-23-2006, 02:07 PM
I'm referring to an understanding of what mobile devices could be
Yeah, I do understand your point, but I disagree with it. As one of my earlier posts pointed out, if anything, the Smartphones we have in the US are just as, if not more so, geared towards "information creation" than the devices I've seen out-and-around Europe.


Then I say you are proving my point.


Actually, there have been monitor projection tools for Pocket PCs for quite some time.

So that you can project your PowerPoint. I know this, But there is no native way for any standard device to do this and put the full desktop and any running programs onto an external monitor.


There is still no way to walk up to any convenient keyboard/mouse/monitor and instantly have your mobile device use them just like a PC can, only wirelessly.
Well, so this is an interesting vision. My question to you is, if you do exactly that, are you using a mobile device, or a portable desktop device? ;) And would you be happier using Symbian (or even Windows Mobile) on that desktop environment?

(And, with that SD card and Bluetooth, it's actually possible, if not convenient.)

--janak


Obviously it is a powerful, versatile mobile device.

Show me how it's possible. I've yet to see a way to do what I describe. the SD and Bluetooth you mention only work with ActiveSync or similar, and don't, by default, give access to operating the device as if it were a PC.

It seems to me that your responses are simply to tell me how much movile devices are NOT doing what I have suggested by pointing out the crippled existing functionality. Let's wait 5 years, then maybe I'll be proven right :-).

Janak Parekh
10-23-2006, 04:04 PM
Show me how it's possible. I've yet to see a way to do what I describe. the SD and Bluetooth you mention only work with ActiveSync or similar, and don't, by default, give access to operating the device as if it were a PC.
Well, with regards to BT, you can certainly set up BT keyboards and mice with most Pocket PCs. As for VGA, you may have a point on the SD card I linked to, although I was fairly certain (maybe it was the x50v as alese refers to) that at least one or two Pocket PCs had reasonable VGA-out capabilities.

It seems to me that your responses are simply to tell me how much movile devices are NOT doing what I have suggested by pointing out the crippled existing functionality. Let's wait 5 years, then maybe I'll be proven right :-).
No, my point was that the underlying technology to accomplish what you seek exists, if not perfected, at this time, and if anything, interest seems to have waned -- our mobile devices are getting smaller and more phone-like, not the other way around. Anyway, as you said, we'll wait 5 years and see.

--janak

hyedipin
10-27-2006, 08:20 PM
It will never kill PC and will always work together, with lack of enough space, and slow transfer speeds &amp; finally with bad integrated browser like IE.

Also there is lack of games (which I mentioned under invaders topic)
Whenever I install any game it ends up not filling the whole screen as it was not originally programmed for QVGA screens.
There are also not many free game packs for SDA/WM5 and I think that's the biggest problem with WM5. If there is lack of games/fun software it will not be popular..

New guys ask when they go to buy phones: "Does it have mp3, does it play games, can I surf the web", nobody cares about productivity or why they didn't put editable excel software, or how crappy it's outlook support/options are. It is Multimedia phone, that lacks fun!
That's why it is not as popular. People with serious needs get blackberry or full PPC phones anyway, so smartphone will always be a sidekick to PC. Yeah, guys like us buy it, because we can tweak it, or make it work for us, but for a regular joe user, he will end up getting a motorola or nokia that looks flashier &amp; has more "FUN" factor.

Steve Jordan
10-28-2006, 02:19 PM
Given all the comments previous, it's clear that people want different things from a smartphone or PPC... some of us want full PC functionality, some just want PIM, and some want mobile fun. And all of these things are possible. Unfortunately, if the manufacturers don't see it that way, it doesn't matter what we want... we'll have to take what they make.

Personally, I'd love to have a PPC that was essentially my PC's hard drive with a built-in mobile interface: Get home, slip it into a slot, and have all my files there; Unplug it, and still have access to some files through mobile apps, all my PIMs, and carry the rest of my files with me; And the PC backs up the PPC. (I don't particularly need a smartphone, but I could use it the same way.) That's really what I have now, except for carrying files I can't access (like Photoshop files, for instance).

I think the idea of a mobile hard drive, and a variety of interface peripherals, for everything from desktop use to (yes) working on the Metro, would be a great way to go.

I also don't need all-in-one devices, so I'm content to keep my phone and music, for example, separate. To combine them on my PPC/smartphone would mean enough battery life to stay on, active and unplugged all day, and an extra 2-4GB of on-board memory just to hold the music. That's a bit too much to ask of PPC/SPs right now.

desertrat_blog
10-31-2006, 12:15 PM
I think most of you are missing the point. For me (and probably most of you peeps here) a mobile phone will not be replacing a PC anytime soon (next 5 years). But for the majority of users whose only needs are to check email, browse the web, do some IM etc, current phones can already meet their needs and thus for them it can replace the PC (if they even had one in the first place). Just look at Japan, where for years, the majority of internet users did the majority their online stuff from their phone and not PCs.

Steve Jordan
10-31-2006, 12:54 PM
Just look at Japan, where for years, the majority of internet users did the majority their online stuff from their phone and not PCs.

And is it still that way now? Knowing that Japan is a lot more advanced in cellphone use than the U.S. is, have they begun to abandon their PCs en masse? Is there a sign there that PC sales are dropping? (I'm asking, not being rhetorical.)

desertrat_blog
11-01-2006, 01:06 PM
And is it still that way now?

Huh? That's a trend that's becoming more prevalent, so yes.


Knowing that Japan is a lot more advanced in cellphone use than the U.S. is

I think in terms of mobile phone usage, the US belongs to the great unwashed category and is behind many less advanced economies.


have they begun to abandon their PCs en masse?

Historically, the penetration of PCs in Japan had always been rather low compared to eg Western Europe and North America, so it's less a case of "abandoning their PCs", and more of "not wanting/needing to buy a PC".


Is there a sign there that PC sales are dropping? (I'm asking, not being rhetorical.)
Worldwide PC sales have started dropping, particularly in those markets where it has reached saturation point (eg in my immediate family we have on average about 1 PC/person - and this includes all the toddlers and babies). Maybe countries like China and India will take up the slack in the near future, maybe not. There are 2 factors which will drive the sales of mobile phones (and in doing so will to a degree take sales away from PCs):

1) cost - mobile phones are a lot cheaper than PCs
2) connectivity - less than 10 years ago there was a waiting list for installing a landline in Shenzhen, China, now people are bypassing landlines and just use mobiles instead. The story is the same in many developing countries it is cheaper to deploy mobile phones than to roll out landlines.