Coming Zune: The iPod's Rival [Archive]

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Darius Wey

07-22-2006, 01:00 PM

"They made a statue of us. And put it on a mountain top. Now tourists come and stare at us. Blow bubbles with their gum. Take photographs for fun, for fun." - "Us", by Regina Spektor (<a href="http://www.comingzune.com/">Coming Zune</a>). <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/web/2003/wey-20060722-Zune.gif" /> The past week has been rife with news and rumours about Microsoft's iPod rival, otherwise known as the Zune. Like the days of the Xbox 360 and Ultra-Mobile PC, Microsoft has embarked on a new viral marketing scheme aimed at catching the attention of not just disgruntled iPod users, but consumers worldwide who are after a portable device that represents the future of entertainment. What does Microsoft have in store? Read on to find out!<!> Microsoft confirmed the existence of the Zune yesterday with an exclusive Billboard interview and the launch of the <a href="http://www.comingzune.com/">Coming Zune web site</a>. The Zune is best described as both Microsoft's solution to Apple's dominant iPod, and an admission of its own failure in delivering a working ecosystem. Ecosystem, you say? It's a term that has become increasingly popular since Apple first unveiled its iPod and the companionable iTunes application and iTunes Music Store. Apple knows that success in the digital media market isn't merely about having the most power-packed hardware around. The software is just as important as the hardware. Integration of the two is just as important as existence of the two. And making it all work is the icing on the cake. In this digital age where DRM controls our autonomy, it all comes down to succeeding in three key areas: the ability to purchase the media, transfer the media to a device, and listen to the media - all without annoyance. Apple does this so well, and the market statistics prove it. While at times, Microsoft has had its moments of glory, its ecosystem has largely failed. The lack of a uniform device, the lack of a globally accessible media service, and the ailing Windows Media Player application have contributed to this. The introduction of <a href="http://www.playsforsure.com/">PlaysForSure</a> aimed to patch this up, yet it had not (and still has not) given Microsoft the edge it needs to compete with Apple. Microsoft's recent partnership with MTV in the delivery of <a href="http://www.urge.com/">URGE</a> is much the same story. While a step in the right direction, it fails in two areas: firstly, it has a limited consumer base (at the moment, URGE is only available for US consumption), and secondly, it relies heavily on spotty DRM technology (proof can be seen in the synchronisation experience with Windows Mobile-based devices, which is nowhere near as reliable as the iPod and iTunes combination). So, Microsoft would benefit from looking at its current ecosystem (or rather, lack thereof), identifying the holes, and rebuilding a new one in order to give Apple a cause for concern. That's where the Zune comes into play. <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/web/2003/wey-20060722-PFSURGE.jpg" /> Figure 1: PlaysForSure and URGE - nice, but not enough. The Zune <a href="http://blogs.msdn.com/melsam/archive/2006/07/21/674467.aspx">falls under Microsoft's "Home & Entertainment" group</a>, which like the "Mobile & Embedded Devices" group (the brains behind our favourite toys), is part of the parent "Entertainment & Devices" group. Sources are pointing fingers at Robbie Bach (President of the "Entertainment & Devices" group) and J Allard (Corporate Vice President and Chief XNA Architect at Microsoft, and a founding member of the Xbox platform) as two key figures behind the Zune. Allard's involvement is regarded as significant, and talk of his involvement has since opened up a bag of rumours (some considered more fact than fiction, and vice versa). As we've witnessed with the Xbox 360, Allard and his team have the potential to walk on their own path and achieve success by ensuring that the products they create offer an integrated experience. How? By utilising unique hardware and software that plugs into a uniform service that connects people to the service, connects the service to the people, and connects people to people. To recapitulate, this ideology is just what Microsoft needs to crack the iPod's dominance in the digital media market, but also further develop its position in areas it already has a stranglehold on. So, let's break down the facts and rumours and see where Microsoft plans to take the Zune in the years ahead. Like the Xbox 360, the Zune will be uniform from both a hardware and software perspective, thus keeping incompatibilities to a minimum. There were rumours that the Zune would run Windows Mobile, but this is becoming increasingly unlikely. The Zune's experience has to be unique, and you can't achieve that when Pocket PCs, Smartphones, and Portable Media Centers are already powered by the same platform. Thus, it's assumed that the platform driving the Zune will be written from the ground up. <a href="http://www.engadget.com/2006/07/21/microsoft-portable-to-be-a-totally-integrated-experience/">Sources</a> indicate that from a hardware perspective, the Zune will sport some sort of drive, not flash media, to offer large storage capacities that could best be regarded as a "requirement" in this day and age with more people resorting to the purchasing of digital media online and the ripping of one's own CD collection. In addition, the Zune is expected to feature Wi-Fi capabilities, which offers benefits in many ways (more on this later). <PAGEBREAK> Unsurprisingly, the Zune is being marketed as an all-in-one entertainment device, <a href="http://www.engadget.com/2006/07/21/zune-what-we-know-think-we-know-and-dont-yet-know/">separate from the PlaysForSure initiative and the woes of Windows Media</a>. This most likely means that media purchased from URGE, Napster, Rhapsody et al. will not be compatible. Instead, the Zune will plug into its own application, its own DRM technology, and its own online service that not only offers audio and video, but also unique content not present anywhere else (the Xbox Live Marketplace is a good example of this principle in action, and in fact, there are rumours that the Zune's online service will somehow be linked to the Marketplace). We might also expect Zune devices to be part of a social network built on <a href="http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2006/may06/05-09E32006BriefingPR.mspx">Live Anywhere connectivity</a>, thus the sharing of Xbox gamertags and achievements, the sending and receiving of private messages, and the playback of Xbox Live Arcade games on the Zune could be a possibility. Wi-Fi capabilities, as discussed earlier, would help the Zune achieve this, but incidentally, also offer a means for users to share media with each other (with limits, of course). Then looking to another rumour, there is talk that Microsoft will <a href="http://www.engadget.com/2006/07/06/microsoft-planning-wifi-enabled-portable-media-player-working-o/">allow current iTunes Music Store customers to download already-purchased tracks from the Zune's online store for free</a>. A bit far-fetched, I know, but there is a first for everything, and we'll see what happens in the coming months. And hey, while on the topic of purchasing and downloading, here is a great chance for Microsoft to incorporate its <a href="http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/features/microsoftpoints.htm">Points</a> currency structure in the Zune's online store! Are you seeing this core theme of "integration" yet? However, if you thought the Zune was "it", think again. <a href="http://www.betanews.com/article/October_Debut_for_Microsoft_iPod_Killer/1153418667">Other codenames such as Alexandria, Argo, and Pyxis have popped up</a>, and we, the geek community, can't help but wonder what they refer to. Alexandria is rumoured to be the online service in Microsoft's new ecosystem. This <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDjToIt_OOE">pre-launch advertisement</a>, while vague, does suggest it. Pyxis is believed to be another entertainment device in this new ecosystem. While the Zune resembles the iPod, the Pyxis is rumoured to resemble the iPod nano in both functionality and construct, but goes a little further to support video playback as well. And Argo is considered the project name encompassing the devices and the service of this new ecosystem. But then it'll kill you to know that following the official announcement of the Zune yesterday, it is now believed that these three terms have been retired in favour of Zune, which now covers all aspects of the ecosystem, and the ecosystem itself. Confusing, no? ;) <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/web/2003/wey-20060722-Alexandria.jpg" /> Figure 2: Microsoft Alexandria - or Zune? Check out the advertisement <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDjToIt_OOE">here</a>. The first public unveiling of the Zune is expected as early as the end of August, with additional demonstrations to follow in September. Microsoft could use this to its advantage. Rumours have been flying around that Apple will unveil a new range of iPod nano devices at the <a href="http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/">Worldwide Developers Conference 2006 (WWDC06)</a> in a couple of weeks. It's a chance for Apple to say, "look, we have this", but Microsoft to laugh it off shortly after with a "look, we have this, but it's better". The first Zune device is expected to hit store shelves in the fourth quarter of this year, just in time for Christmas, and if indeed Microsoft's new ecosystem is what we all hope it to be, then there is a very good chance that the Zune will fly off the shelves, much like the successful Xbox 360 late last year. But as Apple has proven time and time again, continued success is not just about the product itself; it's about the marketing experience as well. Look around and what do you see? iPod advertisements plastered all over television screens, newspapers, walls, bus stops, train stations, and well, you get the idea. The accessories market has only fuelled this obsessive marketing campaign. Whether you head into a store or shop online, you'll see plenty of items designed for the iPod, and very little for any other portable entertainment device. Microsoft knows how it all works. It has done a good job accessorising the Xbox 360, and I believe it can do the same for the Zune, and <a href="http://ilounge.com/index.php/news/comments/microsoft-approaches-ipod-accessory-makers-for-zune/">recent news</a> has shown that the company is already well on the way to doing so. Microsoft has its foot in the door and it has taken a step in the right direction. All it needs to do now is follow through. Like the Xbox 360, the Zune isn't just about excelling on one front. Instead, it's about excelling on multiple fronts and integrating it all to deliver a truly compelling user experience. I have high hopes for the Zune, and can't wait to see it mature in the months and years ahead. <a href="http://www.dariuswey.com/">Darius Wey</a> enjoys all forms of technology. His time is usually channeled into mobile devices, digital media, application and web development, graphic design, his Xbox 360, and of course, portable entertainment devices! He lives in Perth, Western Australia.

DaleReeck

07-22-2006, 03:43 PM

Actually, a standard PocketPC could be as good as an iPod as a media player if it weren't for one thing - storage. The largest SD and MiniSD cards for PDA's are 2gb. There are some 4gb too, but they do not always work in every PDA with every card. That's just not enough to hold applications, data and media without switching multiple cards - an annoying proposition.

The largest iPod on the other hand have 60gb hard drives, which can hold just about every song, video file and audiobook in most people's collections.

Here's an idea. Take a standard PocketPC or Smartphone with WM5, jam a 30gb or 60gb hard drive in it and develop an iPod-like front end software that can easily control all sorts of media formats. Then pair it with a music store desktop software like iTunes. And because its also a PocketPC, you could still run all your apps and personal data since the front end software is just that, a program that is running on a standard PPC instead of a standalone OS like iPod. Its sort of like what Garmin and others are doing with these PocketPC/GPS hybrid devices.

The only drawback is price. I'm sure MS wants $100-$300 devices, not $600 ones. Plus, many people want just media players, not a full PPC. But it would still be cool.

I'd buy one of those media players in a second :) Its not a perfect solution, but my point is, storage is the issue, not necessarily hardware.

choyboy

07-22-2006, 04:41 PM

Nice try, but there's a reason no one has added a hard drive to a pocketpc and called it an ipod killer: battery life.

With the basic microprocessor in ipods, they as it is have only reasonable battery life. Do you honestly think a battery hog like the Intel PXA series is going to last anywhere near enough to run as a music player and as a pda and as whatever else? Not to mention the power-hungry hi res screen.

Convergence is nice and all, but battery technology just hasn't kept up. I can't use an atom as an ipod as well because I can't afford to have my battery die on me in the middle of an on-call shift at the hospital. Ditto goes fo rusing it as a video player.

Re: Zune: as with all things microsoft, the first 4 revisions will suck, but the 5th and subsequent revisions will be near enough to good enough to use properly. That's how windows finally became usable (but far from perfect), the same goes for windows mobile. While everyone is quick to call the xbox 360 a raging success, the poor penetration in some markets coupled with the lack of supply for most of the first and second quarter along with the lack of compettition to date mean this one is too close to call.

As usual, i'm sure microsoft will clobber the compettition with their billions, having easily enoug reserves to out last any compettitor, even Apple. THey've proved to date that no lead, no matter how large, is insurmountable in any market segment that microsoft cares to attack.

Darius Wey

07-22-2006, 04:53 PM

Here's an idea. Take a standard PocketPC or Smartphone with WM5, jam a 30gb or 60gb hard drive in it and develop an iPod-like front end software that can easily control all sorts of media formats. Then pair it with a music store desktop software like iTunes. And because its also a PocketPC, you could still run all your apps and personal data since the front end software is just that, a program that is running on a standard PPC instead of a standalone OS like iPod. Its sort of like what Garmin and others are doing with these PocketPC/GPS hybrid devices.

There are many problems with this approach. Part of the reason why the iPod + iTunes combination is so successful is because it's easy enough for the average Joe to operate. The iPod is a uniform device, free of third-party interference, quite unlike what we are witnessing today with Pocket PCs. OEMs are free to modify ROMs, add in features, take out features, and in general, make a mess of the connectivity and performance of a device. Give a stranger an iPAQ, and then give him/her an Axim a few days later, and he/she will start to question the button layout, why this particular media player cannot play this file format, and so on and so forth. Ask him/her to synchronise the device with a computer, and then witness the confusion when an Outlook-related 85010014 error code is generated. The aim here is to keep things simple, yet functional. Success isn't only about catering for the technophiles. You have to reach out and touch the needs and wants of all consumers (young and old, tech literate or illiterate) by offering something that's easy to learn and easy to use.

bvkeen

07-22-2006, 06:11 PM

I wonder what sort of viruses it will have. :roll:

Muntasser

07-22-2006, 06:27 PM

i see this crashing and burning very zune *sic*.

Microsoft have the blinkers on if they think they can "penetrate" the market at this stage.

Not to mention, the video ad was ridiculous - in its attempt to build "brand recognition" for Microsoft (???why!) you couldn't even work out what product they were trying to promote.

The only realistic option I see is for Microsoft to offer a product that doesn't perform like arse and undercut the competing iPod product by a significant amount.

WorksForTurkeys

07-22-2006, 06:32 PM

I wonder if the first generation Zune will be like the first generation Xbox which was plagued by low quality, proprietary DVD drives that burned and scratched the game dvds, requiring multiple purchases, and inferior hard disks (and I won't mention the power cords which were subject to spontaneous combustion) requiring factory replacements, and excessivly high and delayed warrantee repairs.

and then there is the issue of compatibility: first generation xbox games are generally incompatible with the second generation Xbox 360. will Microsoft guarantee that first generation programming for the Zune will be compatible with the second generation Zune 360...

Ipod programming (ie music) is compatible with all generations of Ipods with comparable hardware capabilities (ie. music players play the music, music players do not necessarily play the video)

Microsoft does not have a good track record of hardware production and support: maybe they hope that the consumer has an exceptionally short memory.

DaleReeck

07-22-2006, 10:39 PM

Success isn't only about catering for the technophiles. You have to reach out and touch the needs and wants of all consumers (young and old, tech literate or illiterate) by offering something that's easy to learn and easy to use.

I hear what you are saying and I agree for the most part. But I do have to say, I recently visited some iPod forums to scope things out as I just got a 60gb video iPod myself and a lot of the problems I was reading weren't very different from PDA forums. Issues with bad hardware, bad firmware, bugs, corrupt media files, third party accessory issues, desktop software errors and syncing problems were common, with both newbies and experienced users alike. You'd swear you were in any typical PocketPC or Palm message forum. I have to question how much easier and simpler iPods are to a standard PDA. Just because an iPod can do less than a PPC doesn't necessarily mean its easier to use.

To be honest, I think the tech industry coddles users too much. Even an average joe can read a manual. But too many people are afraid to learn anything new. If they can't figure it out in five minutes, they don't want to be bothered. They have no patience whatsoever. The tech industry spends so much time catering to these people that innovation is slowed IMO.

***excess quote trimmed by mod JD***

capo

07-23-2006, 01:53 AM

"They've proved to date that no lead, no matter how large, is insurmountable in any market segment that microsoft cares to attack."

I think that pretty much says it. Netscape vs. IE, Windows vs. Netware, Pocket PC vs. Palm... They can't call it Zune though - it needs to be something catchier and more memorable, like Windows Mobile SE Plus for Portable Emtertainment Media Devices...

Darius Wey

07-23-2006, 03:23 AM

I hear what you are saying and I agree for the most part. But I do have to say, I recently visited some iPod forums to scope things out as I just got a 60gb video iPod myself and a lot of the problems I was reading weren't very different from PDA forums. Issues with bad hardware, bad firmware, bugs, corrupt media files, third party accessory issues, desktop software errors and syncing problems were common, with both newbies and experienced users alike. You'd swear you were in any typical PocketPC or Palm message forum. I have to question how much easier and simpler iPods are to a standard PDA. Just because an iPod can do less than a PPC doesn't necessarily mean its easier to use.

Problems exist - I'm not denying that. But consider how much easier it would be for Apple or Microsoft to universally patch a problem, add functionality, and create common documentation if there was just one type of hardware to worry about. It's done with the iPod, and it's done with the Xbox 360 (over Xbox Live). Look at the Pocket PC and you have multiple OEMs and multiple devices - and at times, half of them couldn't care less about fixing problems (e.g., X50/X50v + Windows Mobile 5.0 upgrade).

To be honest, I think the tech industry coddles users too much. Even an average joe can read a manual. But too many people are afraid to learn anything new. If they can't figure it out in five minutes, they don't want to be bothered. They have no patience whatsoever. The tech industry spends so much time catering to these people that innovation is slowed IMO.

Actually, I think the tech industry isn't cuddling users enough. For the past 9 months, I was working as the Chief IT Officer of an Australian and New Zealand medical conference. One thing I learned is that no matter how easy a task may seem, and no matter how clean and simple a user interface may be, you cannot expect first-time users to know what is going on. They need to be guided, and even manuals fail to do this sometimes with all the jargon that is used. A tech illiterate isn't going to want to open a manual and read all this stuff about MP3s and DRM. It has to be simpler than that.

Darius Wey

07-23-2006, 03:27 AM

Not to mention, the video ad was ridiculous - in its attempt to build "brand recognition" for Microsoft (???why!) you couldn't even work out what product they were trying to promote.

I think that's all part of the viral marketing scheme. You show the world a vague advertisement, leave them wondering what's going on, then when the time is right, bam - you hit 'em with the big guns. ;)

Darius Wey

07-23-2006, 03:35 AM

Darius Wey

07-23-2006, 03:36 AM

They can't call it Zune though - it needs to be something catchier and more memorable, like Windows Mobile SE Plus for Portable Emtertainment Media Devices...

You're thinking of this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUXnJraKM3k), right? ;)

aroma

07-23-2006, 05:12 AM

Microsoft have the blinkers on if they think they can "penetrate" the market at this stage.

Really? Cause they've never been succesfull at it before... :roll:

dma1965

07-23-2006, 12:47 PM

unxmully

07-23-2006, 01:44 PM

WorksForTurkeys

07-23-2006, 03:19 PM

and then there is the issue of compatibility: first generation xbox games are generally incompatible with the second generation Xbox 360. will Microsoft guarantee that first generation programming for the Zune will be compatible with the second generation Zune 360...

Good thought, but there are two different concepts being applied here: media players vs. game consoles. Games are written for a particular platform. When the console gets upgraded, the games get upgraded. Media, on the other hand, is universal. When the media player gets upgraded, the media stays the same. MP3 will stay as MP3, WMA will stay as WMA, AAC will stay as AAC, and so on. The only real hiccup you may witness going from a first-generation Zune to a second-generation Zune is accessory compatibility, and even the venerable iPod isn't immune from that problem.

only WMA may stay the same: AAC has changed many times as Apple perfects their DRM such that DRM'd tracks are not playable on non Apple players which are otherwise AAC capable. AAC is also changing as Apple impliments their own flavor of FLAC as Apple Lossless, and MP3 has attempted a change at least once. WMA may have to change again as their DRM is so restrictive that it's license renewal procedure regulalrly fails frustrating many current users with MS Certified players.

Also, I don't know if the game console analysis is accurate: PlayStation games work across their product line, and Xbox games work across the two generations if Microsoft decides support the game with their 360 emulator.

I just don't see this issue as that simple, and there is the issue that Microsoft's customer culture is characteristically different from Apple's. Windows persists because of public corporate requirements, whereas Apple persists because of customer enthusiasm (fanaticism). I can't see any corporate incentive to compel employees to use Microsoft's media player over another.

Darius Wey

07-23-2006, 04:52 PM

AAC has changed many times as Apple perfects their DRM such that DRM'd tracks are not playable on non Apple players which are otherwise AAC capable.

Of course, DRM restrictions in this situation are unavoidable.

You started off analysing compatibility issues on a single line of hardware manufactured by a single company, and in such a case, it's very probable that even with changes in hardware, support for older and newer variants of a single file format (and associated DRM) will still be present. Now you're looking at a separate issue altogether, and that is file compatibility across multiple hardware products manufactured by more than one company. Without question, incompatibility issues will arise in situations such as this.

Also, I don't know if the game console analysis is accurate: PlayStation games work across their product line, and Xbox games work across the two generations if Microsoft decides support the game with their 360 emulator.

Sure, that's fair. But the point is, the architecture of the content is different. For support across generations of hardware, one requires complex emulation, the other doesn't. Guess which one is easier to execute?

I just don't see this issue as that simple, and there is the issue that Microsoft's customer culture is characteristically different from Apple's.

Sure. Nothing's ever that simple. In this industry, it's always a competition to see who can execute concept XYZ the best. You have to work out who your consumer base is, how to target them best, and how to best draw those outside your circle to maximise numbers.

zetsurin

07-23-2006, 07:30 PM

Microsoft have the blinkers on if they think they can "penetrate" the market at this stage.

Really? Cause they've never been succesfull at it before... :roll:

Precisely! Do not underestimate Microsoft. In 2000, when Palm had something like a 90% marketshare of handheld devices, people (like me) found it laughable that Microsoft would even try to compete with its Windows CE devices. Not so funny now, is it?

Palm killed itself, Netscape stood still too long (and were killed by the standard bundling with OS and OEM lock-in strategy). Apple are different. I can just imagine the microsoft executive panel saying, 'ok, let's take all of what makes the iPod cool and put that in our device/software'. Meanwhile, Apple are busy with the next level of gadget and I am sure they will have something new shortly after or at the same time that Zune comes out. Apple won't be doing a Palm anytime soon.

And as for the XBOX 360, let's not overlook the fact that the PS2 continues to outsell it!

Microsoft should just stick to what it does best: buggy operating systems and marketing/evangelism.

Charles Pickrell

07-23-2006, 09:55 PM

I think Microsoft's strategy of copying and not inventing is sad. With such a large company full of talented individuals, I can only conclude that most of Microsoft management has had a labotomy. I wish Microsoft would spend more time inventing solutions that meet users' unmet needs today.

I think the last useful new product was the Tablet PC, and it isn't getting the marketing and development push behind it that Microsodt should be giving it. Everytime I talk to an executive about the abilities of a Tablet PC they drool and ask where to go see one. Microsoft is fairly broken, and I hope someone is allowed to step in to fix it. I wonder how different things would have been today if the Federal government had broken Microsoft up into multiple companies that competed against one another?

elehcdn

07-23-2006, 10:00 PM

"They've proved to date that no lead, no matter how large, is insurmountable in any market segment that microsoft cares to attack."

I think that pretty much says it. Netscape vs. IE,

Except for the fact that currently, MIE is losing substantial ground to Firefox and Safari. The Gates MS would have a decent shot at pulling this off - the Ballmer MS is just living off the huge monopoly that Bill built.

Besides, wasn't it just a couple of months ago that Urge was sure to kill the itms?

elehcdn

07-23-2006, 10:03 PM

Though to be fair, that had less to do with Microsoft's platform being better and more to do with Palm's failure to provide a sensible upgrade path for their users.

Actually, it probably has more to do with people in general abandoning handheld PCs for phones. I think that it was less that MS was increasing units sold than it was that the market for Palm handhelds dried up.

***long quote trimmed by mod JD***

Ed Hansberry

07-23-2006, 11:49 PM

i see this crashing and burning very zune *sic*.

Microsoft have the blinkers on if they think they can "penetrate" the market at this stage.
You mean like how late to the party MS was when they reinvented their PDA in April of 2000 when Palm had been around for several years and was easily over 80% share?

Darius Wey

07-24-2006, 03:42 AM

I think Microsoft's strategy of copying and not inventing is sad. With such a large company full of talented individuals, I can only conclude that most of Microsoft management has had a labotomy. I wish Microsoft would spend more time inventing solutions that meet users' unmet needs today.

I feel that this is an inaccurate assessment. There is plenty that Microsoft has executed well and executed from scratch. For example:

Xbox Live and the Xbox Live Marketplace on the Xbox 360 have done plenty to redefine and set a new standard on the state of online connectivity in gaming. Live Anywhere, which has yet to be seen, may raise that bar even higher.

Media Center could be regarded as the first solid jab at bringing computing and home entertainment together. It's been gaining popularity as of late, and Vista is set to boost Media Center's capabilities even further.

beq

07-24-2006, 05:16 AM

zetsurin

07-24-2006, 08:25 AM

You mean like how late to the party MS was when they reinvented their PDA in April of 2000 when Palm had been around for several years and was easily over 80% share?

This has been said before, and it bares little to no relevance to the battle about to take place today. If I recall correctly, Palm still held the majority of the market in 2004, and then proceeded to do NOTHING with the platform for years. They pretty much terminated it all on their own. I'd like to ask you precisely why you expect to see the same thing happening here? Too much Microsoft love, perhaps?

***excess quote trimmed by mod JD***

Ed Hansberry

07-24-2006, 11:05 AM

This has been said before, and it bares little to no relevance to the battle about to take place today. If I recall correctly, Palm still held the majority of the market in 2004, and then proceeded to do NOTHING with the platform for years. They pretty much terminated it all on their own. I'd like to ask you precisely why you expect to see the same thing happening here? Too much Microsoft love, perhaps?
Even by 2004, Palm was losing to WIndows Mobile in Europe and was experiencing significant erosion in the US. I agree that much after 2004, PalmOS just fell into a coma of stagnation and inactivity, but it doesn't change what happened from 2000 to 2004 - significant gains by WM.

aroma

07-24-2006, 03:04 PM

Make what excuses you want for Palm / Netscape / Netware / Playstation / et all, but in each of those cases, MS was a very late commer to the party, after the market was well saturated, and they pentetrated very well, were very sucessfull, and in most cases, completely dominated. The point is, even with the market share that Apple currently has, there is no reason to think that MS cannot enter the market this late and be very sucessfull at it. I don't think anyone is trying to predict the downfall of the iPod, rather than just refuting the comment that MS wouldn't be able to penetrate the market this late in the game. History seems to go against that argument.

Charles Pickrell

07-24-2006, 03:54 PM

I feel that this is an inaccurate assessment. There is plenty that Microsoft has executed well and executed from scratch. For example:

I think my general point stands. For a company that employs over 60,000 people, Microsoft should have tons of innovative new software and hardware. While Microsoft's Live technology for X-Box and soon other devices is indeed successful and cool, they need to be doing more. It has been my experience that Microsoft looks at any successful third party products in new marketspaces as a threat and tries to kill them in the market. Instead it should focus on continued research of new products rather than always looking in the rear view mirror and copying existing technologies. I consider Microsoft's actions of entering a mature market with the intention of eliminating players in that market through sheer financial force a waste of the companies energies and resources. As the market leader Microsoft has a responsibility to move computing forward, and I don't mean releasing larger and larger versions of Windows and Office over and over. I mean look at Vista from the users persppective, slower, more RAM and video requirements, reduced compatibility, not many new user-centric features, etc. What's to like there? Gimme something new and innovative and my wallet is out. Lately my wallet has been out to companies like Apple.

Darius Wey

07-24-2006, 04:17 PM

Instead it should focus on continued research of new products rather than always looking in the rear view mirror and copying existing technologies.

To be fair, the Microsoft Research folks have innovated in the past and present, yet a lot of it goes unnoticed. Have a look at some of the current projects here: http://www.microsoft.com/about/brandcampaigns/innovation/yourpotential/main.html

I consider Microsoft's actions of entering a mature market with the intention of eliminating players in that market through sheer financial force a waste of the companies energies and resources.

You can't dominate a market through financial force, especially a market as big as the media market. It doesn't matter how many products you create and partnerships you sign, and how many dollars went into all that. At the end of the day, consumers still rule. If your product or service is good enough and gains the appeal of the consumers, you will succeed.

I don't see any of this as a waste of Microsoft's energy and resources. If the company can deliver a better product/service combination, the consumers will benefit. If not, lesson learned, and the company can focus elsewhere. The world can then go back to enjoying what Apple has to offer. You can't blame anyone for trying.

inteller

07-24-2006, 04:35 PM

I'd read more about it here:
http://news.com.com/Microsofts+Zune+to+rival+Apples+iPod/2100-1041_3-6097196.html

But, I also found this very interesting:
http://news.com.com/2061-11199_3-6097419.html

"Zune could kill Microsoft partners, not iPod"
"With friends like Microsoft..."

Well, Microsoft has given its partners plenty of time to get their act together, coming out with standards like Plays for Sure and such, but all of the gadget providers are more intersted in confusing the custoemrs with different interfaces than rallying behind a common form factor (like what is happening now with HTC in the WM/Smartphone world. microsoft is also ensuring this doesnt happen with future technologies, which is why they have released a hardware and software spec for UMPCs.

Jason Dunn

07-24-2006, 08:01 PM

An interesting article by Darius, and some very interesting responses in this thread. With both Pocket PC Thoughts and Smartphone Thoughts being sites that were started with "underdog" products, where the market was hugely in favour of another product at the time, let's just say that I have a feeling Microsoft is serious when it comes to Zune. More to come from me on this topic...

Gary.Lavin

07-31-2006, 05:30 AM

Darius Wey

07-31-2006, 06:23 AM

I signed up for Microsoft's new venture - Urge - and was very disapointed to discover that your music is only good as long as you continue to pay the monthly subscription, the day you stop all your downloaded music is worthless, what a rip off. Let your friends know.

I wouldn't really call it a rip off. This is how subscription services work. The music is good for the duration of the subscription. Once it expires, playback rights diminish. You can't expect to pay $10-$15 per month and download all you want, let your subscription expire, and then still expect to enjoy playback rights for an indefinite period. The market would collapse.

The other pricing mechanism is a "by the track" plan, which is just like the iTunes Music Store. Buy the track for $0.99, and it's yours to keep forever. If you're not happy with the former, go with the latter.

Steve Jordan

08-05-2006, 02:33 PM

Darius Wey

08-05-2006, 06:12 PM

Personally, I find it sad (and maybe a little telling) that Zune is considering support for iTunes music, but not music from Napster, Rhapsody, etc, especially since they have transformed themselves into legitimately-bought music sources. That Zune would not want to include them, and risk shutting out all that accumulated music in someone's collection, seems wrong.

Well, the truth is, no one knows if the Zune will support iTMS music, so it's not wise to reach a conclusion just yet. That's just a rumour going around, and for all we know, it could have been started by a dreamer on Forum XYZ. We'll know more later this month. ;)

Steve Jordan

08-08-2006, 03:57 AM

Well, the truth is, no one knows if the Zune will support iTMS music, so it's not wise to reach a conclusion just yet. That's just a rumour going around, and for all we know, it could have been started by a dreamer on Forum XYZ. We'll know more later this month. ;)

Oh.

Never mind.