Gartner Predicts Mobile OS War Is Over

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=22683">http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=22683</a><br /><br /><i>"TWO OF THE Gartner Group's leading analysts, Nick Jones and John Girard, are predicting big trouble for Symbian when Microsoft finally releases its Magneto release of Windows for Smartphones some time in Q3-Q4 2005. Jones believes that the lead Symbian currently enjoys as a smartphone OS will evaporate when Magneto finally appears. Magneto will effectively fix the bugs and fill the holes in the current version of Windows for Smartphones."</i><br /><br />This mainly references Windows Mobile for Smartphones but the line is going to get blurry as time goes on as to what the difference is between a Smartphone and Pocket PC Phone. Of course, to win, Microsoft must at least get their Smartphones into the hands of US carriers. You'd be surprised how difficult it is to get a modern Windows Mobile Smartphone from your carrier's local office. :? <br /><br />Interesting Palm wasn't even mentioned. As cool as the Treo is, I personally see it as the last big hurrah for PalmOne/PalmSource. They will continue to release derivative products to a solid fan base but continue to lose share.

[Phillip Dyson]

As much as I'm a fan of Window Mobile, I'm always concerned when the market collapses leaving only M$ standing.

Here's to a long and healthy competition. :drinking:

[PPCRules]

... As cool as the Treo is, I personally see it as the last big hurrah for PalmOne/PalmSource. They will continue to release derivative products to a solid fan base but continue to lose share.
As always, I agree with Ed.

And, of course, it will be blamed on the criminal, predatory acts commited by Microsoft, not any lack of competance or truly compelling products on Palm(/one/source)'s part.

[Kowalski]

i find sony clie ux50 the best palm device ever.
i wish any vendor would sell a device in the form factor of ux50 but with windows mobile built in

[serpico]

I'm still confused with all the flavors of Windows Mobile. Other manufacturers are using the term smartphone for their pda-style phones which blurs the whole thing for me. I don't see Palm doing well until their new OS comes out and is available on every device. And that, would have to be a remarkable OS to make me sell my HP 4155. My goal is to have a great pda and cell together in a small form factor like the Treo. Hope the rumors are true that a Windows Mobile Treo is coming out soon.

Do a few people use both a a pocketpc and a windows smartphone, or is there no difference b/w the two and one can use a smartphone 100% of the time?

[gibson042]

Do a few people use both a a pocketpc and a windows smartphone, or is there no difference b/w the two and one can use a smartphone 100% of the time?
There are software differences right now, but Windows Mobile for Smartphone is still very capable and many people use a smartphone exclusively (though I doubt anyone on this site is :wink:). I would say that the smartphone + PDA combination is the least common configuration for those with advanced functionality (because of cost), falling behind "dumb" phone (non-WM or Palm, but still possibly Symbian) + PDA or just a single PDA phone.

Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.

[Ed Hansberry]

Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.
Really? I hadn't heard that the WM2005 Smartphones would have touchscreen functionality. Even if you could load something like Pocket Informant on a WM2005 SP, it wouldn't make any sense without a touchscreen.

[serpico]

Thanks for the update, I'm looking forward to Windows Mobile 2005. Probably the answer for many of us users carrying so many devices. That's the one thing I hate about technology, all these devices. PocketPC, cell phone, ipod, digital camera... and your wallet and car keys!

[twalk]

When I saw the title, I just knew that it had to be from Ed...

Gartner has become a bad joke in the analysis industry. They've been wrong so often, in so many markets, that about the only people that believe them anymore are those who haven't heard of them, and those who really, really, want to believe what their saying. (They can make good money selling stuff to people that really, really, want to believe them.)

For 7+ years they've been predicting that MS would kill off PalmOS "by the next year", and they've been wrong every time. Note that they didn't say gain a market share lead, they've said that PalmOS would basically go away completely. A little while back they were very happy to very loudly proclaim that WM sales had finally passed PalmOS sales...

As for the health of P1, 2003->2004 lead to an increase in all devices sold from them that run PalmOS. Per product profit margin increased. P1 isn't losing money, they're profitable. I might not like all their decisions, but they haven't made out bad, especially when much of their competition is often dumping stuff for below cost.

Gartner is very heavily MS biased. In basically any product category, they just about always pick MS to win, even when it doesn't make sense.

WM for SPs will have a very tough time against Symbian. Why? Because of Nokia. MS doesn't sell SPs. Nokia does.

Nokia has around 30% of the global market for cell phones. And they will never run WM on them. Furthermore, the other market leaders are putting a lot more effort into Symbian than WM, and that's if they're even working on a WM phone at all.

As for a global wide breakdown:

US: Palm is extemely strong here at the SP level (and very, very weak in the rest of the world). Nokia, Moto, and others are also very strong. HP &amp; Dell have been the standard bearers for WM, but they have very little of a relationship with the carriers. MS (and P1 for that matter) have a lot of trouble getting into the low end, because the carriers only want the dirt cheap java phones. (Low end WM &amp; treo SPs mean a lot more software and support problems for them, costing them more $$$ than they could ever bring in.) To add to the problems, the carriers just flat out don't trust MS.

Europe: Does anyone here really think that MS is going to beat out Nokia and Erricson for the hearts and minds of europeans?

Japan: Local products dominate. MS, Nokia, P1, etc, etc, all have a lot of trouble just being visible here.

Rest of the pac rim: It's becoming increasingly clear that java and linux will dominate. (PalmOS on linux might do good here, but probably not.)


My analysis (from someone who develops on mobile platforms):

PDAs: In the US, you practically need to be on all the platforms (WM,PalmOS,RIM,Series 60). None dominate, all have a very significant presence. In europe, Series 60, then WM. In asia, go with the local products and/or linux.

SPs: By the end of next year there will probably be over 1B J2ME capable phones sold. That number dwarfs everything else. (I'd estimate that by the end of next year there will be 7-15M WM phones, 5M+ treos, and maybe up to 100M Series 60+ phones.) Long term, the chinese are going to put linux on every SP that they make, and dump them in huge numbers into about every market.

Todd

[gibson042]

Windows Mobile 2005 will eliminate the software differences between Smartphone and Pocket PC flavors, reducing the decision of which device to get to a matter of only form factor and functionality.
Really? I hadn't heard that the WM2005 Smartphones would have touchscreen functionality. Even if you could load something like Pocket Informant on a WM2005 SP, it wouldn't make any sense without a touchscreen.
That would fall under "functionality". Everything I've read about Magneto indicates a total software merging of Smartphone and Pocket PC. I'm sure that (almost?) all WM smartphones sold this year will lack touchscreens. But there isn't anything preventing manufacturers from adding the hardware, and the OS will have built-in support for it. I hereby offer my prediction that 2006 will see the release of a WM device that is primarily a phone (what we would now call a smartphone) and has a touchscreen.

And if I remember correctly, Nokia has already announced a Series 60 phone with a touchscreen.

[orol]

i find sony clie ux50 the best palm device ever.
i wish any vendor would sell a device in the form factor of ux50 but with windows mobile built in
same here :) and they could integrate GSM part as well :)

btw in the long run windows mobile will be a winner. MS is big ... very big :)

[lorcro2000]

I use a Windows Mobile 2003 device myself (a Pocket PC that is) and I wouldn't want that OS on my phone. Everyone I've personally talked to who have gotten one of the combo WM2003/phone devices have been talking about instability and weirdness - the last thing you need in a communications device.

Symbian has a long and proud history of stability and quality, starting with the EPOC operating system from Psion, years ago; the best smartphones to date have been all Symbian, up until now when the Treo is doing very well.

With the biggest phone makers in the world going with Symbian so far, I don't see MS Smartphone just waltzing in and taking over anytime soon - Microsoft or no Microsoft.

[zetsurin]

I use a Windows Mobile 2003 device myself (a Pocket PC that is) and I wouldn't want that OS on my phone. Everyone I've personally talked to who have gotten one of the combo WM2003/phone devices have been talking about instability and weirdness - the last thing you need in a communications device.

Symbian has a long and proud history of stability and quality, starting with the EPOC operating system from Psion, years ago; the best smartphones to date have been all Symbian, up until now when the Treo is doing very well.

With the biggest phone makers in the world going with Symbian so far, I don't see MS Smartphone just waltzing in and taking over anytime soon - Microsoft or no Microsoft.

I agree, and also I'm with everything that twalk said. I actually develop a scalable education system which runs on lots of devices, from Windows, Mac, Pocket PC (you won't read about it here just yet as I am targetting education institutions first), Symbian and Java. Java in it's mobile incarnation J2ME is a MASSIVE market. One only has to research it's use across the board in the mobile world (eg. MIDP in the western world, and DOJA as part of imode/iappli in Japan). Actually, I speak to Japanese people, just average everyday non-technical people and the word 'iAppli' is pretty much common use, they know it's a mobile Java application. That kind of penetration into people's lives will most likely never be reached ever by WM. I consider the whole notion that one product like that could suddenly sweep the world is pure fantasy and indicates ignorance. I'm sure a lot of people who expect WM to suddenly dominate just think it will happen because Windows is dominant... well it's a completely different ballpark. I don't believe that Microsoft has actually been able to step into any technology arena aside from PC's and totally dominated).

[Phillip Dyson]

I use a Windows Mobile 2003 device myself (a Pocket PC that is) and I wouldn't want that OS on my phone. Everyone I've personally talked to who have gotten one of the combo WM2003/phone devices have been talking about instability and weirdness - the last thing you need in a communications device.

Symbian has a long and proud history of stability and quality, starting with the EPOC operating system from Psion, years ago; the best smartphones to date have been all Symbian, up until now when the Treo is doing very well.



I can't speak to the WM Phone Edition, but I can say that WMSE Smartphone is very stable. Awhile ago I decided to never go back to a non-smartphone er.. phone. No more quasi-OSes hacked together by the likes of Motorola etal.
I almost never soft reset my device. My only gripe in the PDA + Smartphone is M$'s lack of support for multiple devices (mainly a problem with ActiveSync). I wish I could connect 2 devices to my computer at one time. Better yet sync directly between the two.

I think M$ has a huge chance to become the winner, simply because its a paradigm that consumers are familiar with. Windows. I think as far as marketing goes, its an easier sell to say "Hey, you can take your desktop with you."

[Stik]

WM for SPs will have a very tough time against Symbian. Why? Because of Nokia. MS doesn't sell SPs. Nokia does.

Nokia has around 30% of the global market for cell phones. And they will never run WM on them. Furthermore, the other market leaders are putting a lot more effort into Symbian than WM, and that's if they're even working on a WM phone at all.

Current Canalys numbers seem to bear much of what you say out...

" Symbian’s overall share of the worldwide smart mobile device market rose above 60%, from around 40% a year earlier. Despite increasing activity among Asian licensees of the OS, the proportion of shipments accounted for by Nokia remains very high at 82%. While this is down a few percentage points sequentially it is dramatically up on the 70% seen a year earlier."

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2005/r2005041.htm