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View Full Version : Do Handhelds Have a Future?


Ed Hansberry
06-15-2004, 06:00 PM
<a href="http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1611918,00.asp">http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1611918,00.asp</a><br /><br />"Rats. I finally get around to buying a handheld computer, and I start seeing headlines like "Is the PDA dead?" I should have seen this coming. We covered the news this month that Sony is halting production of its Clié line of handhelds for the rest of the year—and maybe for good. The announcement came in the wake of market research that shows declining PDA sales for the second consecutive year."<br /><br />I think this gets into the definition of "what is a PDA?" I think the classic PDA that Palm made famous with the first Palm Pilot is a dying breed. Enterprises certainly have no use for a PIM device that requires the user to go back to their desktop to synchronize data when so many options are available that have significant processing power and wireless connections that make it as easy to sync from around the world as from down the hall.<br /><br />Consumers have little need for PIM only devices too as phones are increasingly able to handle simple and complex PIM tasks.<br /><br />But what about more powerful devices? Low cost devices like the iPAQ 1940 series that include bluetooth or more expensive devices like the iPAQ 4000 line or Axim X30 that have some combination of bluetooth and/or WiFi? What about PDA/Phone combos, like the Treo 600, the XDA or the forthcoming iPAQ 6000 line?<br /><br />Do handhelds have a future? I think they do, but it isn't the same PDA you had three years ago. It can't be. The market will move beyond that - a lesson Palm learned perhaps a few years too late. I doubt we really know what the handheld device of 2007 will be capable of, much of which will depend on the wireless infrastructure in your area.

Jeff Song
06-15-2004, 06:16 PM
Handspring got it right-they thought that the market would become converged, and as is evidenced by remarkable sales of the Treo 600, it was correct. I would say that PDAs aern't going anywhere, but they will be your portable information center. Cellular, WiFi, BT will all become standard fare IMO, and even the low end models will have some sort of wireless networking built in. Ultra Mini Computers like the OQO won't kill off PDAs as many people believe-the cost is just too much for the average consumer. At the same time, PDAs will continue to drop in price, making it so everyone has one, much like a cell phone these days.

GoldKey
06-15-2004, 06:28 PM
While it will probably take until close to the end of the decade, I think the stand alone PDA is dying. I think PDA functions will be mergered into phones and devices like the OQO will fill in for PDA's (but will have phone functions built into them also). Also, I think there will still be a market for the very low end stand alone PDA, ie something like the zire but at more like $30.

david291
06-15-2004, 06:58 PM
The article uses "handheld" and "PDA" as if they are synonymous. Handhelds will never be dead. We'll always have and need a hand-sized computing device with screen size similar to our current Pocket PCs. Whether we'll have a device dedicated primarily to PDA functions is certainly debatable.

The Yaz
06-15-2004, 07:18 PM
I liken the pda/smartphone market to the office network environment.

There has been this back and forth with networks as to how data should be processed. First you had the server with dumb terminals, then the terminals had the processing power and sharing between desktops would eliminate the need for central servers. Now there is a symbiotic relationship where the desktop does some of the work, but the server retains and manages the data.

In a similar fashion, the pda became the place to put all of your data, and you had to look up a contact in the pda to then type it into the phone. Now we have smartphones that can retain the data and do the phone functions as well.

But I believe that in the end the pda will be replaced by the pmc (personal media center). Through bluetooth or other wireless format the pmc and the smartphone and the wireless speaker-mic will all be connected. The phone will be the personal wireless access point, handling the phone/networking functions, but the pmc with its folded 8" 800x600 dpi screen will allow the user to do the visual functions (surf the web, review work files, play games/music /video) that would not be practical on most phone's tiny screens.

I believe that pmc's will not have cameras on them. The smartphone will have the camera built in which will be removable(to allow for video conferencing) and to drop of for security reasons.

It would not make sense for the pmc to have phone functions because with multiple carriers and phone standards, it is easiers to change a phone than by a new pmc.

Just my $.02.

Steve 8)

Steve Jordan
06-15-2004, 07:24 PM
Then let's debate! :D

PDA's biggest value is their portability, a value which will never die. If anything, the PDA will evolve in its mission, since the shrinking machines like OQO will take over many of the PDA's functions.

I see the PDA as becoming the ubiquitous storage device for all personal data and files, a sort of "e-wallet." As you travel about, work and play, your cell phone will access it for contact numbers and e-mail addresses. Your OQO device, your home PC and your office PC will access it for stored files. Your appliances will access it for favorite recipes, TV shows to record (or playback), and preferred home environmental settings.

As other devices learn to better intercommunicate and share data, storing your data with you at all times should look more and more attractive. The PDA is perfectly suited for that task.

SeanH
06-15-2004, 07:31 PM
My first PDA was a Palm Pro back in 1995. It replaced a ragged old address book and a DayTimer planner. I never liked the Palm Desktop so I used Microsoft Exchange (the predecessor to Outlook) with Intelisync. In 2000 I moved to PPC and used ActiveSync with Outlook for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. Feb this year I picked up a Nokia 6820 Cell phone that includes Nokia Software Suite that syncs with Outlook over Bluetooth. The new phones PIM functions are equal to the PPC but the phone is a lot smaller then any PDA. I now use the phone 100% for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. I still use the PDA everyday as a GPS, eWallet for passwords , CoolCalc to figure things out and other misc apps. But it’s no longer my PIM. The Nokia 6820 has an electronic wallet feature but I am too lazy to move everything over. A lot of people buy a PDA strictly for PIM functions, that market will move to cell phones.

Sean

surur
06-15-2004, 07:37 PM
Only one thing is very certain - the device we will carry in our pocket will be able to function as a mobile phone.

The next question is - will the device be our only computer, storing our "profile", or will it be a companion to a "desktop" somewhere else.

Only time will tell.

Surur

Sven Johannsen
06-15-2004, 07:44 PM
I recall my PC being a 4MHz machine with 640K of RAM. My PPC is a 400MHz machine with 64M of RAM. The OQO and Flipstart are poised to put into my hand what I had on my desktop a couple of years ago. Will the OQO etc. replace my handheld? Heck yea, but when it first comes out it will be excruciatingly expensive. They price will come down and I will have today's desktop in my hand. But the desktops will evolve too. So we will be having this same discussion 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, from now. My Personal Information Center (I like that better :) ) is great, but when will it have the alpha wave recognition input and 3D holographic display projector like my desktop?

Evee Ev
06-15-2004, 08:09 PM
my pocket pc was fine when i had a belt clip for my phone. now i have the nokia 3650 with no clip. it sucks to have both devices sometimes. i recently went house hunting in maryland and having to walk around with both devices wasn't good at all. i ended up leaving the ppc in the car most of the time.

i think the handheld will always have a market. someone always needs just the "basics".

smartphones are cool but i would like to have a dedicated albeit small pda to watch movies and play tecmo super bowl on the commute home. for me the 4155 is a perfect device.

gorkon280
06-15-2004, 09:21 PM
My first PDA was a Palm Pro back in 1995. It replaced a ragged old address book and a DayTimer planner. I never liked the Palm Desktop so I used Microsoft Exchange (the predecessor to Outlook) with Intelisync. In 2000 I moved to PPC and used ActiveSync with Outlook for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. Feb this year I picked up a Nokia 6820 Cell phone that includes Nokia Software Suite that syncs with Outlook over Bluetooth. The new phones PIM functions are equal to the PPC but the phone is a lot smaller then any PDA. I now use the phone 100% for addresses, appointments, notes and tasks. I still use the PDA everyday as a GPS, eWallet for passwords , CoolCalc to figure things out and other misc apps. But it’s no longer my PIM. The Nokia 6820 has an electronic wallet feature but I am too lazy to move everything over. A lot of people buy a PDA strictly for PIM functions, that market will move to cell phones.

Sean

Can you enter new appointments in less then 5 minutes with a T-9 keypad?? I sure can't!

Kevin Daly
06-15-2004, 09:23 PM
Let's look at it this way: if you went back to 1980 (when I first really became interested in computers for personal use) and asked the question "Does the microcomputer as we know it have a future?", the answer provided by hindsight would be "not likely".
If you asked "Does the microcomputer have a future?", the answer would be "beyond anything we imagine".

I think that Palm spent so much time telling everybody that a PDA doesn't need to be more than whatever they were selling at the time (before they saw the light, or rather, were shown it), combined with all the derision that used to be heaped on Windows CE for bloat and superfluous complexity and so on that we have all been subconsciously conditioned to take a limited view of what a PDA actually is.

My guess is that there will be a merging of the capabilities of PDAs and smartphones at one end of the scale, and of PDAs and PCs at the other end. When the dust clears we may not have something that we call a PDA, just as we don't often talk about minicomputers these days, but there will still be devices with the sort of form factor and characteristics that we now associate with a PDA.

Actually, just to be annoying, I think we should start talking about the disappearance of the desktop computer as the PC becomes essentially a scaled-up PDA...
(My point being to the extent that I have one that while the human mind finds it convenient to assign things to neat, convenient categories, that does not mean that those categories reflect any intrinsic underlying reality...which is why taxonomy causes biologists a lot of grief :wink: )

whydidnt
06-15-2004, 09:34 PM
I agree with most of what the author says. PDA's as we know them today will evolve. I'm not certain of what they will evolve into, but I think the upcoming Mpx is a pretty good starting point.

My best guess is that we will see more and more converged devices with a high end device that has a 3.2 or 3.5" screen and can still be used for note taking, etc, and a lower end devices with less screen real estate that will primarily retrieve information -in either case they will both have mobile phone capabilites and most likely a high speed 3G or better connection that will eliminate the need to include WiFi in the unit. I still think that MS misses the boat with their smartphone platform by not allowing a touchscreen. I really like what they've done with the one handed interface, but data entry on a numeric keyboard stinks no matter how much predictive text you use.

You may still find a few of the devices we all love today, but they will be used in either specialized applications, or by the hardcore loyalists who frequent sites such as this. :D

The only thing I worry about with the convergence is will these devices be the jack-of-all-trade, but master of none that sometimes happens when we merge technologies.

jasondearyou
06-15-2004, 09:51 PM
I think the "PDA" will totally evolve into something that's totally different, with holographic technologies the need for a screen wouldn't be needed and eventually it would become somthing like an always on technology, for example our watches. We always have it on but only look at it when we want the time etc.

With the use of the kenetic feature that comes in designer watches where there isn't a need for a battery there wouldn't be a need for charging, and sync would be over the air from anywhere in the world. Data entry would be through voice.

The device would also have calling, gps, etc.

Always on always there.

So that's where PDA are going, to the new era of wearable digital assistance. WDA.

You heard it here first.

0X

epdm
06-15-2004, 10:20 PM
Lets'get some things straight.

1) There's a big difference between what a companiy dictates what's best for us or what we really need. The latter's drive is merely commercial success to make some CEO (more) rich.

I think that it's not because Sales of phone-less PDA's drop that companies should kill them of right away. I think that some patience here can be better. It's also clear that nowadays companies expect profits too soon from a newly developped product without giving that product significant acceptance time. It took years before Audio CD's became generally accepted and vinyl records completely dissapeared. So give ppl the time accept PDA's and they will. But trying PDA's yesterday and smartphones tomorrow and the day after smartcameras is NOT the way to do it.

2) The exchange to smart phones. As of now these so-called smartphones are merely a gimmick. Soon their deficiancies become apparant and then ppl will want to revert back to regular PDA's alonside their "smartphone"
. For example it's very hard to jot something down in your smartphone while a person is calling.

What I see is that smart-phones are not smart on the items where they ought to be smart (connectivity with our electronic environment). But instead merely converge callender/agenda functions withing a phone. And in fact drive ppl away of its prime function.. a phone. I think a "smarter" move is to make smartphones less agenda/callender but smarter in connection with PDA's. This is what ppl actually need not yet another phone with a stupid calculator or callender which you can't use when someone is on the phone.

What I see is that companies in their haste for certain commercial succes make mistakes all over again. Look at Psion's demise. Instead of improving their series 5 , their biggest succes, they tried for a second time to build a subnotebook and failed misserably (again). So is Sony-ericsson making the wrong move to create bulky expensive camphones instead of improving their biggest succes the t68i.

So my prognosis: In short term, sales of regular PDA will drop in favour of smartphones. In the long term ppl will discover the problems of these converged phones and will want PDA's back (but by then PDA's will be gone)

As for myself. Give me an Colour series 5 (epoc device) with proper pc and phone connectivity at a reasonable price. And I'll be happy.

Jonathon Watkins
06-15-2004, 10:48 PM
Only one thing is very certain - the device we will carry in our pocket will be able to function as a mobile phone.

Sorry Surur, but I very much disagree. The one device / two devices debate produces a lot of polarised opinion. Some folks prefer one, some the other. There is a lot to be said for a using a dedicated device for a task.

Sure, PDAs with embedded phones (and cameras :wink:) have their place, but they are not for everyone.......

surur
06-15-2004, 11:40 PM
Only one thing is very certain - the device we will carry in our pocket will be able to function as a mobile phone.

Sorry Surur, but I very much disagree. The one device / two devices debate produces a lot of polarised opinion. Some folks prefer one, some the other. There is a lot to be said for a using a dedicated device for a task.

Sure, PDAs with embedded phones (and cameras :wink:) have their place, but they are not for everyone.......

I think it is inevitable. There is a variety of forces which dictate that this will happen

1) The killer app for desktop computers in recent times have been the internet. A network connection to exploit this in a PDA is almost a given.

2) The cost of adding this feature is constantly decreasing.

3) The costs of a phone device will, up front, be less than a stand- alone device due to carrier subsidies. This will make the choice alot easier for people choosing between a PDA and phone or a PDA-Phone.

4) Carriers are trying to increase their revenue from data. PPCPE devices are big data revenue earners (just ask orange and O2). Mobile devices have a very good replacement rate, with alot of innovation. It is very much in the interest of manufacturers to switch production into a booming area with good prospects for increasing revenue, rather than a shrinking market. And the phone companies are prepared to pay the OEM's well for their devices, as they are good earners.

I feel the main thing keeping PE devices out of the market at the moment is the high cost of data. If data was free I would use them constantly. I would love to stream BBC Radio 4 onto my Xda 2 for example, or connect to my web cam at home for security purposes. In a few years time data will be cheap, fast and ubiquitous, and there will be no unconnected devices manufactured anymore.

Its like CD's and vinyl. CD's replaced vinyl very quickly. There are people who see specific advantages to vinyl (richer sounds etc) and these people were the audiophiles, with alot of money. They were not however able to fight a mass movement of millions of consumers who voted with their wallet. Now they are a small niche market, and have speciality manufactures to meet their needs, at much increased prices.

The vast majority of people will have connected devices, and a small "elite" will have very expensive stand alone devices, but most people would not understand the advantage they claim.

Surur

BTW: I hate smartphones. They are just stupid phones with some extra apps with poor UI. I love PPC PE devices, and will definitely get an Mpx, but never a Mp220 (or whatever its called). I dont want a smarter phone, i want an always connected PDA. Fortunately at least Motorola understand the difference.

Len Egan
06-16-2004, 02:43 AM
It seems to me that input is and has always been the issue. Until OEM's can come up with a phone device that allows for quick input, there will always be a need for two devices. Tablet PC was to be the be-all, but it's size and price kept it from ever really taking off.

Perhaps the new Motorola will be the answer.

sundown
06-16-2004, 04:19 AM
Now here's my problem with PDA phones - I don't want to get stuck with one service provider. So I go and buy the latest Whatever 2213 Pocket PC with all the features I want. I probably have to subscribe to an annual contract for a year or two (that's what I have to do when I buy a phone) and then when I decide that service sucks, what do I do? Buy a new Pocket PC? Not me. Secondly, Pocket PC phone are huge. I don't lug my PPC around every time I take a walk but I do click my small cell phone on my belt. And the little tiny phones that pretend to replace Pocket PC's won't work for me either - too small to be useful. I don't see myself ever buying a Pocket PC phone for those two reasons. I much prefer these are two seperate devices.

ruarch5
06-16-2004, 05:38 AM
There is a pretty good similarity in this topic to the WAP fiasco. It simply doesnt work. Telcos are spending big bucks to get something out there that will help them boost revenue from their customers...and that just happens to be the PDA/phone at th e moment. I give the PDA/phone combos two years to start recedeing into the memories of those who argue for them now. Crazy? Not really...I've lived in Japan for two years, and I'm pretty sure they already have the kind of phones people are just beginning to think about on this side of the globe. No arguments here I hope, because there really isnt much point. I had email on the go, CNN a VGA camera with flash and I could download music and video, do shopping, buy a shinkansen ticket, play games on the phone or downloaded all within the language limitations I had as a Japanese illiterate. All the things that seem to be the compelling selling point of the smartphone. The 'smart' thing with my phone was that it looked exactly like a phone does now.

Although I had this out of the (western) world phone, I really wanted a Sony CLie to play with. The clie had a bigger screen and provided a better visual experience. By the QVGA screen...same as an XDA...

The death of the PDA/phone will logically coincide with the growth of the Tooth technology. Why? Why pay for GPRS or CDMA chips on ur PDA when u can easily share it with ur phone via Bluetooth. The really important trick is to make bluetooth smarter.

UCCOFFEE
06-16-2004, 07:28 AM
I really want a PPC phone which is only the size of a 1910 or even smaller.

I ve been bring my PPC and mobile phone all the time since i bought my 1910, and bringing 2 device is quite annoying sometimes...

Motorola MPx looks great, but i m very worry about the battery life....

especially with the flash and 1mp camera....

surur
06-16-2004, 08:00 AM
There is a pretty good similarity in this topic to the WAP fiasco. It simply doesnt work. Telcos are spending big bucks to get something out there that will help them boost revenue from their customers...and that just happens to be the PDA/phone at th e moment. I give the PDA/phone combos two years to start recedeing into the memories of those who argue for them now. Crazy? Not really...I've lived in Japan for two years, and I'm pretty sure they already have the kind of phones people are just beginning to think about on this side of the globe. No arguments here I hope, because there really isnt much point. I had email on the go, CNN a VGA camera with flash and I could download music and video, do shopping, buy a shinkansen ticket, play games on the phone or downloaded all within the language limitations I had as a Japanese illiterate. All the things that seem to be the compelling selling point of the smartphone. The 'smart' thing with my phone was that it looked exactly like a phone does now.


So what is the trend in Japan. Are phones getting smarter still, or is the market for the smarter phone shrinking. Is adding features still making a phone sell faster, or does it shrink that phones market.

I agree that Japan is ahead of the rest of the world, and would therefore be a good bellwether. Of note is that Sony has stepped out of the pocketpc market.....

Surur

CupertinoSlim
06-16-2004, 01:40 PM
All I know is I'm lovin' my P900, and the iPaq sits at home gathering dust. If I need GPS navigating in a car that doesn't have it built in, I take along the iPaq. But that's not very often. The iPaq also has a lot of my music collection on it but I rarely listen to music except when I'm at home or in a car so it doesn't see much use at all.

If the P900 and Treo were $99 this discussion would be in the past tense.

ruarch5
06-17-2004, 12:27 AM
I agree that Japan is ahead of the rest of the world, and would therefore be a good bellwether. Of note is that Sony has stepped out of the pocketpc market.....


They havn't stopped in Japan...and that's the biggest clue. The PDA, or more exactly a PDA sized product was never meant to replace mobile phones...its simply too big. It is however big enough to provide mobile computing/entertainment and communication where a greater level of visual interaction than can be found on a mobile phone is required. To fully appreciate this superior visual experience, you have to look at VGA devices. QVGA belongs on a phone.

The problem I have with PPC at the moment is related to the lack of cohesive designs for their purpose. Thank God M$ has finally realised their os and restrictive rules ware hampering the growth of the market, and consequently their own growth. SE is a glimpse at what will help the platform exit the dark ages and into the 21st century.

if you want to know where Japanese phones are right now go here

http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/June2004/7840.htm

Mine was a bit of a dinosaur... :roll:

kl0an
06-17-2004, 11:03 PM
I'm still using a Jornada 548 and a Nokia 5165. I keep my Jornada because here in Alaska, there's hundreds of thousands of square miles where there's no cell phone coverage. Now, some of that area may have regular phone coverage and I can hook my Jornada into a land line and away I go. I'd love to see a cable that will go between the two so that when I'm in cell coverage areas, I can still use my Jornada.. I like that old Nokia, it's a lot more robust than those little phones I see everyone with these days.. And those fancy walkie talkie phones.. forgeddabout it.. Not here in Alaska.. Won't be for quite a while I'd say.. Technology is a little slow makin it up this way but, that's fine, we don't have to keep jumping from one technology to the next.. They wait until something becomes stable before they bring it up here..