Paul Thurrott Commentary on PDA Market

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.winnetmag.com/Article/ArticleID/42493/42493.html' target='_blank'>http://www.winnetmag.com/Article/Ar...2493/42493.html</a><br /><br /></div>"The question is whether these colorful, people-friendly devices can do anything to rejuvenate PDA sales. In addition to the aforementioned 12 percent drop in year-over-year sales, PDA sales plunged 33.1 percent between fourth quarter 2003 and first quarter 2004, a post-holiday sales drop that's larger than the market typically experiences. In the United States, PDA buyers are moving toward low-end products, such as the Zire family, whereas traditional business users are moving toward smart phones.<br /><br />With its powerful Windows Mobile-based OS, which powers devices such as the Pocket PC, Microsoft was expected to eventually dominate the PDA market. But the market's move to smart phones might have forestalled and ultimately denied Microsoft that domination. Microsoft's smart phone entry, although well received by reviewers, has seen little traction thanks to resistance from traditional cell phone companies who are fearful of the software giant's motives."<br /><br />Some strong views from Paul Thurrott, but that's his speciality. He's predicting that PDAs will die off and be replaced by Smartphones and Tablet PCs. What do you you think about this prediction?

[James Fee]

He is probably correct, though current Smartphones and Tablet PCs won't do the trick just yet.

[rugerx]

He may be right... eventually.

For now, I want my PPC seperate from my phone.
I drop my phone ALOT. I never drop my PPC.

Maybe its becuase of the price difference, :lol:

Regardless, I dont want a 600 $ phone.
I view them as almost disposable. If they break oh well, I get a new one.
Not so with my PPC.

And yes I do tend to buy cell phones that are on the budget end.
I dont care about phone games, cameras, ring tones, bluetooth... etc etc.
I just want it to make a call.

Now my PPC, I want it small, and loaded.
Thus my choice in the 4155.

my 2 cents

[yslee]

That depends on the definition of a smartphone again, I guess..

Tablet PCs are not attractive to me at all. Too big to hold (I mean, do you write on an A4 or 8.5x11 pad in your hand?), too heavy to use comfortably. It works fine on a table, but if I'm going to need a table, I'd take a full fledged subnotebook instead. I like my keyboards, thank you very much.

[felixdd]

Nahh...I don't think so. But I think eventually all PDAs will have cell-phone functions built into them. But not phones with PDA functions -- you just can't do enough with them.

[ntractv]

I love my iPAQ 5555, I love my LGVX6000 from Verizon and my StarTac phone (though antiquated as it is as it is work issued). I have never really been able to get on the Smartphone bandwagon simply because the Smartphones do not really have the functionality of a handheld PDA. My PDA is like my personal secretary. It gives me all the information (which I input albeit) that I need to successfully get through the day on a decent sized screen which I can view. For me personally, I do not wish to squint my eyes anymore than I do now and on a Smartphone I would be doing just that. And for Tablet PC's, why not just carry a laptop. Same principle, about the basic size and the same if not more computing power. PDA's will always have a market for those of us who just want an electronic secretary in our pockets. But, if the OEM's don't feel the same way this is all subject to change. Keep in mind though, we are all pushed to accept and learn to deal with what is the latest and the greatest. For me, my ipAQ 5555 is the greatest PDA in the world. It does what I need it to do and then some.

[Pat Logsdon]

I don't agree. I think Pocket PC's are just right in a few very important ways. Tablet PCs are a kind of weird mutation of laptops as far as I'm concerned - I don't see them replacing Pocket PCs, since they're not as portable.

Also, I don't see smart phones replacing Pocket PCs, for two reasons. First, there's a real-estate issue. I don't want to read a book on a phone, or watch movies, or do word processing or spreadsheet editing, or really any of the hard-core PIM stuff I do with my Pocket PC. Second, there's the issue about interaction with the device - I WANT a touch screen - and for that I need room for my fingers or stylus to move around.

I guess I see phones staying as phones with maybe some extra stuff tacked on, and I see Pocket PCs moving towards "mini tablet" functionality - mass storage, large touch screen, robust OS, small form factor, etc.

[Don Tolson]

I'm not convinced I want a phone/pda combination (yet!), but I do know that now I'm using a tablet pc, I tend to truck it with me to meetings, etc. around the office, rather than take along my PDA (as I used to). The tablet is great -- especially if there is a wi-fi network in the building so I can keep constantly connected. Having the increased landscape for writing, drawing, etc. is a huge bonus + my Office 2003 software automatically set up Outlook to run an replicated copy of the calendar, etc. locally on the tablet. It syncs up all by itself when reconnected back into the LAN.

The downsides of the tablet are short battery life (only about 4 hours at best) and no 'instant on' feature -- although standby comes pretty darn close. The weight (about 3 lbs) is still a bit more than a pad of paper, but it's not a big huge burden to truck around to meetings.

I can see that, as tablets become more advanced and lighter, that I will probably stop using my PDA for 'office' work. I'll probably still need a small, portable unit however, to hold a copy of my schedule, contacts, etc. -- but maybe, with a bigger screen, that could be in my phone???

Hmmmmm....

[powder2000]

Another 'pocket pcs are dead' article :roll: They'll have their purpose well into the future. I agree with the above sentiments that they move to having standard cellular abilities built in, but they will not be replaced by a phone. Of course then you could argue they are smartphones! How about this, if they have a 3.5 to 4 inch screen, they are pocket pcs. I think that is a magic size that will be around for a long time.

[James Fee]

Another 'pocket pcs are dead' article :roll:
You only roll your eyes because you are too close to the PDA world. We've all seen the focus at Microsoft toward Smartphones and Tablet PCs and Paul Thurrott will of course push the MS agenda, but in this case he is correct. The change is in the air, not today, not next month, but within a year, the PDA world will be a very different place.

[Mark Johnson]

With its powerful Windows Mobile-based OS...


So how can it possibly be a surprise to anyone in Redmond that sales are down? Of course they're down! In the words of Michael Jordan, "the thrill is gone." They haven't done anything to make me want to change from the iPaq 1910 I got in December of 2002.

Can I have Bluetooth HID support please? Nope.
USB host support? Nope.
VGA? Real soon now...
A crummy Jog Dial? Sorry, tough luck kid...

Even if these features arrive in the next few months, the wait has been so long it's caused a "mental shift" for me: I now realize that PPC is "mature" (aka "boring"). Short of MS deciding that they will let WinCE "be free" to "threaten" the desktop (support USB devices, have non-ActiveSync application installation, properly and natively support keyboards and mice thorugh Bluetooth and USB, etc.) the PPC will remain the "unloved stepchild" of the XP desktop.

What on earth happened? The platform is at a standstill. Even the recent announcements for developers only talked about supporting screen rotation and resolution switching. It's like MS is taking out a flashing neon sign that says: "We think the PPC has as much functionality as we dare to put into it. Any more features and various low-intesity users like students will be able to use in instead of a notebook and then we lose a sale of Windows XP. Can't let that happen, here's your cradle, learn to love it peasant."

I can think of a ton of people I know who would switch to heavy use of a PPC device (at the expense of using a desktop) with a few more features. I know of almost no one who would use a glorified digital day-runner (as MS has relegated the PPC to remain) who does not ALREADY own one. And the declining sales figures support that.

[deich]

The "silent majority" will decide the fate of the PDA. We PDA lovers are too small a group to support the market by ourselves. Microsoft may well be right. They are, above all, a marketing company. But one thing is surely wrong. The tablet will never replace the PDA. At least, not as long as it takes forever to boot. Plus, it's just too large.

[Altaman]

I really don't htink that the PDA will die...however I think that the people that want a one device does all will be the majority. There will always be those, myself included that will not want everything in one device however I will become the minority.

Mind you I plan on having my E800 for a few years as it does what I want and really can't see a need to look at "more is better". By the time I want to upgrade what will be out there??

Alt

[Jon Westfall]

As the former owner of a palm m505 (which was not connected in anyway to the internet), and a current owner of both a smartphone (i-mate smartphone2) and pocket pc phone edition (i-mate pocket pc), I think Thurott will eventually see his prediction come to pass - however his "smartphone" will have a touchscreen that expands to be as big as a PPC's, can run as fast (or faster) than a PPC, and can be a phone or not a phone, owner's choice. So, to me, it looks like a PPC in smartphone's clothing.

Jon.

[Zack Mahdavi]

I don't see Pocket PCs dying at all. Smartphones are still in the developing stage.. not even the Treo 600 is as polished as today's average PDA. I do think that smartphones will mature over time, and only at that point, can I see Pocket PCs lose popularity.

The biggest problem I have with a smartphone is network compatibility. Say you buy a Treo 600 from T-Mobile today. It works great as a GSM phone on T-Mobile's network. But say you want to switch to Sprint later... well, if you had a separate phone, it's not a big deal. You can get a new phone for cheap from Sprint. However, you can't get a "nearly free" smartphone. The Treo 600 is nowhere nearly as disposable as a cell phone, and thus you're stuck with a provider.

That's one reason why I haven't bought a smartphone yet. I'll stick to my T610 / iPaq 4155 duo! :)

[Chris Spera]

Some strong views from Paul Thurrott, but that's his speciality. He's predicting that PDAs will die off and be replaced by Smartphones and Tablet PCs. What do you you think about this prediction?

I know Paul personally. We've worked together, and have had the opportunity to talk at length about a great many things related to new technology over the years.

He's a great guy, but I don't think he gets the whole mobile device thing. He's never been able to truly get himself into a Pocket PC due to the way he works. He wants one device that can do it all. Like he said, a Tablet PC is close, but its too big. A SmartPhone is another close one, but its too limited in his opinion...

SmartPhones and Pocket PC's are PC companions. They were never meant to take the place of a PC (at least not for long) no matter how much we may want them to. To get to where Paul would like us to be will require a huge computing paradigm change, I think...

[Forget It]

[...]
SmartPhones and Pocket PC's are PC companions. They were never meant to take the place of a PC (at least not for long) no matter how much we may want them to. To get to where Paul would like us to be will require a huge computing paradigm change, I think...

What like the linux paradigm shift? :-)

[Chucky]

What I would really like would be an absolute base level mobile phone - I request only one feature: bluetooth. I don't care if it has a 2 line monochrome lcd.

I just want a very small phone, that I can talk to people on, sms and have it pass features that it can't support onto my pda (ie. mms, GPRS etc).


I don't want a PDA the size of a mobile - nor do I want a mobile the size of a PDA, but will quite happily carry both - just as long as they are both thin and light!

[Jonathan1]

Paul's a biased idiot who all but works for MS. I don't think I've ever read a single sentence from him criticizing MS ever nor have I heard a sentence written out doing anything but bashing anything non-Microsoft. How does this play into his article? The man is incapable, IMHO, of seeing 2 feet in front of his Microsoft colored world. Consequently he can’t see where the industry as a whole is going not just where MS is trying to push the industry.

[rhmorrison]

What will be the PDA in 2010 (http://www.popsci.com/popsci/computers/article/0,12543,613615-2,00.html)?
I want one NOW.

[Mojo Jojo]

I have to agree with Mark Johnson, there really hasn't been anything new, exciting, or what ever that I can't do with what I have currently. How long have we been in the 32-64 meg storage area? Screen size? Resolution? Layouts?

You can only sell the same thing to a niche group so many times before they stop buying.

[thunderck]

I think the notion about smartphones and business is ill-conceived.

How many business users swear by their Blackberrys? Why :?: Real-time wireless Bi-directional E-mail, calendar and contact support :!: PPCs cannot do that BUT PPCPE can. I think as the PE market grows and more devices have RIM type function, given that PPC blow RIM's out of the water in soooo many other ways that are not just cool but business useful, (app support, dev, ect) that PPCPE devices will gain ground in the business world and not Smartphones.

I think with the, now, maturity of Middleware and data services we are at a watershed with PPC and business. :mrgreen:

[thunderck]

In the words of Michael Jordan, "the thrill is gone."



The thrill will keep us hardcores coming back for more and our love with keep us wanting more. But business needs the functionality :!: The thrill will not keep business customers in the hunt.

[Felix Torres]

Mr Thurott is probably right...
...for the most part.

On a 5 year timescale, what we now call a PDA will likely be gone and replaced by three separate products.

1- The Smartphone, of course. Whether based on MS-technology, Symbian's or something else, the fact is that most folks that just want a small digital planner/organizer also want a phone and the two-fer value of a cheap phone with built-in planner functions will satisfy them.

2- The Tablet PC. Yes, current Tablet PCs weigh three pounds and cost $2000. And yes, they are basically A4 sized. But if the evolution of the PDA has taught us anything, is that products evolve. Could anybody have looked at the Casio e-100 brick in 2000 and guess that by 2003 we'd have something like the HP 19xx? Even as we speak, there are outfits working on Tablet PC designs that will bring price and weight and, eventually, size down, while maintaining full XP functionality. This category will likely spawn a new breed of Pocket computers, over time, that will address those of us who, like me, don't much care about the planner functions and just want a *computer* that will fit in our Pocket. Yes, OQO is the first generation of these, *if* it ever ships. Give Moore's Law and the new, upcoming, non-glass-based displays time and you *will* see a tablet PC sized and priced comparably to a Toshiba e-8xx. But that is four to five years away.

3- Media players. Folks tend to forget about this class of info appliance. Most jukeboxes let you store non music files on the HD, no? The iPOD lets you sync your calendar and contacts, Panasonic sells a media player that runs slide shows. And the Portable Media Centers coming from MS's partners run on full WinCE 4.x, run on Strongarm CPU's, and have 320 by 240 screens. Do the math, folks; as the category grows, there'll be a need to add value and differentiate the various products--just as their is with PocketPCs--and the logical step is to add extra apps. It would hardly take much effort to re-engineer any PocketPC app to run on the PMCs, just like it takes relatively small effort to port them to the MS Smartphone products.

Now, you factor these three offshoots of the basic PDA into the wider market and what product remains? The vertical-market data collection computer, no?

PDAs are a result of a convergence of need--of an electronic data store, scheduling tool, pocket-sized computer, etc--and available technology, moderated by the requirements of the market as to manufacturability and pricing.

The needs and expectations for a product change over time; the technology available to the manufacturer changes; and the requirements of the market, in the form of alternative solutions, change. Sometimes, this leads to products that evolve but remain recognizably themselves--the desktop PC, for one--and sometimes it leads to products that evolve into offshoots so different that the original source product is barely recognizable. PDAs are a very likely candidate for this.

Try this simple exercise: what should an ideal PDA circa 2007 look like?
4 inch screen? SVGA resolution? Built-in HD? Active digitizer pen? Built-in 3D graphics chip? 1GHz CPU? Voice recognition?
Guess what? That's the description of a small Tablet PC circa 2004.

So, OS issues aside, there *is* a clear path towards convergence of PDas and tablets. (And with XP-embedded as an option...)
Its all a matter of time.

The real question is: how soon will Tablet PCs shrink in size and *price* to displace today's PDA *architectures* from the market.
Given the traditional PC pricing curves, I expect we'll see the baby tablets reach $800 in about two years.
Which is the high-end of the PDA market.
After that, its all up to the market...

[thunderck]

Mr Thurott is probably right...
...for the most part.


The real question is: how soon will Tablet PCs shrink in size and *price* to displace today's PDA *architectures* from the market.



I agree mostly and a side note a great post. Really enjoyed it. :mrgreen: However I make one assertion and that is applying today’s lingo to tomorrows evolution is not far. The yester years of PPC has seen many changes, we all know what they are, (PPC interface, expansion, WiFi, ect). Could device vendors do more, maybe? We will always want more because we love our devices or we would not be in this community at PPthoughts. Our beloved devices will not died but rather evolve. Evolve into other markets, happens all the time. The Pc evolved from the home to the office and displaced a lot of centralized processing. I for one would be disappointed if in a couple years we did not have something like an OQO at a cheaper price. I remember the first time this community saw the OQO. It was met with a great deal of coveting and trepidation over the possible PRICE. But ahhhh, as you said, Moore’s Law.

All I'm saying is that in the future we will still call Pocket PCs, Pocket PCs and we will still come to this site "Pocketpcthoughts.com" for all our PPC needs. 8)

[Mojo Jojo]

Just a way off topic here...

Anyone catch the oqo in the fox show 24 on tuesday? The british guy turned terrorist was using it. Though I am not sure if the the screen was real or touched up.

[Perry Reed]

Paul is right. PDAs will be squeezed from both sides and Tablets and SmartPhones (or their equivalents) will dominate.

However, some of those SmartPhones (and a few of those Tablets) will look an awful lot like PDAs!

And Felix, who mentioned the media players as another option, is dead-on. Apple is showing how they can start with a basic player and expand into other areas. Rumor has it the next iPod will feature a 50GB disk and a color screen for viewing photographs stored on it.

[Steven Cedrone]

Just a way off topic here...

Anyone catch the oqo in the fox show 24 on tuesday? The british guy turned terrorist was using it. Though I am not sure if the the screen was real or touched up.

Yes, way off-topic.

Also, it is already being discussed here! (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=27395&)

Steve

[thunderck]

However, some of those SmartPhones (and a few of those Tablets) will look an awful lot like PDAs!



Sound like you are saying a blurring of the lines between our current understanding of Smartphones, PDA and Tablets. How do you qualify one device taking over another? Why can’t one say that Tablets will be taken over by PDA? I think it is a slipper slope. However I am open for correction. Putting a computer in our hands was the night and day act everything else is a manifestation of that. Weather or not we are using CE, a stripped down version of XP with a handheld UI or a combination of a number of different things is just an evolution.

[Perry Reed]

Sound like you are saying a blurring of the lines between our current understanding of Smartphones, PDA and Tablets. How do you qualify one device taking over another? Why can’t one say that Tablets will be taken over by PDA? I think it is a slipper slope. However I am open for correction. Putting a computer in our hands was the night and day act everything else is a manifestation of that. Weather or not we are using CE, a stripped down version of XP with a handheld UI or a combination of a number of different things is just an evolution.

Yep, I think you're absolutely right, it IS a slippery slope. And the lines will definitely blur. When I qualify one device "taking over" another, I'm pretty much thinking in marketing terms. I'm sure we could all come up with various technical distinctions between them all, but I think they would mostly fall into a few areas (OS, communication capabilities, touch screen, etc.)

What I think is more likely is that some of those technical distinctions will be blurred to the point where only the marketing ones will remain. And then we'll like see things like a "SuperMini Tablet PC running XP-Lite" or a SmartPhone "Now with touch-sensitive screen!"

So my point is that the traditional PDA market, again I'm thinking in marketing terms, will be replaced by expanded SmartPhone and Tablet markets that converge somewhere near where PDAs are now.

[Felix Torres]

However, some of those SmartPhones (and a few of those Tablets) will look an awful lot like PDAs!



Sound like you are saying a blurring of the lines between our current understanding of Smartphones, PDA and Tablets. How do you qualify one device taking over another? Why can’t one say that Tablets will be taken over by PDA? I think it is a slipper slope. However I am open for correction. Putting a computer in our hands was the night and day act everything else is a manifestation of that. Weather or not we are using CE, a stripped down version of XP with a handheld UI or a combination of a number of different things is just an evolution.

Blurring, yes; that is exactly what is happening.
But, for now, you can still tell the products apart based on primary use.
Think of the Smartphone vs PocketPC Phone; touch-screen and resolution aside, the usage pattern is very different. The Smartphone is primarilly a cellphone+PDA; the PocketPC Phones are PDAs with built-in cellular connection. One is voice-centric, the other data-centric.
Over time, they'll blur even more.

In fact, some of the nice toys we're (sigh) *not* getting from the far east completely blur the distinction to the point the only way to tell what you're looking at is the built-in software. (I'm thinking of the clamshell phones running PocketPC phone edition instead of smartphone software.)

The reason we can safely assume the surviving product will be the called a phone is because, marketing-wise, you're not going to see the phone companies selling PDAs *as* PDAs; their core product is the phone service, after all. The hardware is just the delivery vehicle for that sale.

Don't want to confuse the customer with meaningful data, now, do we? ;-)

On the Tablet-side the distinction is easier; the TabletPC is a very detailed brand and specification that refers to a full-function PC (no-compromises) that happens to come in a Tablet or convertible form factor. The original intent was for all Tablet PCs to be slates with detachable keyboards but lack of familiarity with the form factor has led to the (hopefully) transitional convertible form factor.

Once you use the Tablet PC long enough you realize the device is usable without the keyboard for enough of the time that you really don't want one permanently attached.

TabletPC is a young form factor.

To use it is to like it, but it needs time for people to get used to it.
The defining trait, though, is no-compromises on the softweare; you run full Outlook as your Planner, full Word, as your word processor, etc.
Plus, the desktop versions of most of the PocketPC apps...

So the difference between PDAs and Tablets is, for now, quite significant.
Especially in price.
That's why i said it'll be years before we see Tablets and PDA blurring the way Phones and cellular PDAs are...
But if Moore's law holds up it will happen...

[thunderck]

So my point is that the traditional PDA market, again I'm thinking in marketing terms, will be replaced by expanded SmartPhone and Tablet markets that converge somewhere near where PDAs are now.

It is all semantics. We really agreed all along (Felix and Perry and others I'm sure). Some features from Smartphones some from Tablet some form different OS all converging in a marketing sence "new" device. :wink:

[Foo Fighter]

What like the linux paradigm shift? :-)

Gah! Linux is not a paradigm shift. It's just more of the same, in a badly cloned form.

[Felix Torres]

What like the linux paradigm shift? :-)

Gah! Linux is not a paradigm shift. It's just more of the same, in a badly cloned form.

Arggghhhh!
He said the L-word!
And he didn't go down on his knees and genuflect towards finland!

We're doomed!
The slashdot hordes will descend upon us in all their fury!
&lt;sigh>
And this was such a nice place to visit, too...
(run for your lives!)

Oh, no! its too l...

[thunderck]

:lol: :lol: :lol: Good post. Slashdotter will descend from the north and we are Rome. :devilboy:

[Gen-M]

If a PPC/Phone combo is a Smartphone, what would a Win XP/Phone combo be called?

I have a vision of something similar to an OQO/Flipstart/Antelope with cell phone capability, with bluetooth earphone and MicroOptical headset paired with Frogpad or other bluetooth keyboard/input device such that the phone screen is some portion of the VGA HMD display (with pop-up notification of incoming calls). Only one box, but I won't have to dig anything out of my pocket for an incoming call - or hold anything up to my face or ear that is not already there.

Smartphones will die, too. :twak:

[Mark Johnson]

What like the linux paradigm shift? :-)

Gah! Linux is not a paradigm shift. It's just more of the same, in a badly cloned form.

I'm going to try to take the difficult (but I think important) position of both strongly agreeing and strongly disagreeing with this statement:

Agree: Linux is nothing "revolutionary" in terms of feature set. Just because Sharp used linux for the SL-5600 does not make it able to cook my breakfast or divide by zero. It's just an OS, and a PDA will fetch my contact phone numbers equally well regardless of the OS.

Disagree: The "revolution" comes from OEMs having a real prospect of telling MS to keep their "design recommendations" and "standard reference platforms." My gripes with MS are all about what PPC can't do because they refuse to let it do what it could. MS is determined to make sure PPC is never a threat to XP, so they keep it hobbled.

With a Sharp/Linux PDA your CF card is essentially usable as a floppy or an installable location. What I mean is that I don't have to ActiveSync to get an app loaded on a Sharp. I can do backup/restore/reinstall from the CF card. "Cradles?! We don't need no stinkin' cradles!"

Consider the hardware limitations MS is imposing. I can't believe, I mean I SIMPLY CANNOT BELIEVE how intesly LAME the "up/down selector" is compared to the Jog Dial on the Sony Clie series. But Redmond seems to be so stuck in the "not invented here" mindset that we won't see it. This is such a trivial engineering challenge with such a huge user-convenience impact that is boggels the mind that MS won't do it, but they won't so you and I can't have it. (Think about it, the ONLY reason I'd want an ipod instead of a big storage card on my ipaq is because to scroll from Aerosmith to ZZ Top clicking down one artist at a time takes forever! Everyone in the press gushes over how "incredible" the ipod is and its not! It's just got a wheel, that's it and that's all! The PPC with a Jog Dial would be just as good, but you can't have one because MS didn't think of it before Sony did and they are embarrased to admit it.)

Linux is not exciting because it can do things WinCE can't, it's exciting because it will let OEMs do things MS won't won't LET WinCE do.

I'd be so ready to grab a Sharp unit if they sold one in the same size class as the ipaq 1900 series. The unit they've got is a brick.

[Perry Reed]

It is all semantics. We really agreed all along (Felix and Perry and others I'm sure). Some features from Smartphones some from Tablet some form different OS all converging in a marketing sence "new" device. :wink:

Was anybody disagreeing?? :)

[madmaxmedia]

Try this simple exercise: what should an ideal PDA circa 2007 look like?
4 inch screen? SVGA resolution? Built-in HD? Active digitizer pen? Built-in 3D graphics chip? 1GHz CPU? Voice recognition?
Guess what? That's the description of a small Tablet PC circa 2004.


Is it? Or is it the description of a PDA circa 2007? Meaning I basically agree with you, but it doesn't really matter whether you call it a PDA or smartphone or a TabletPC. Actually, while we are all talking about convergence, I think it is important to note that a device should be categorized based on its primary usage. In these terms, I will call an OQO a PDA, since any PDA is basically a computer that fits in your pocket. Or if you want to go by John Sculley's original acronym, a "Personal Digital Assistant."

I do think it would be a shame if the palm-sized PC form factor completely disappears, because the phone-optimized device is not suitable for many applications. And if you add GSM to what is essentially a PDA, I still call it a PDA because the form factor is optimized for handheld computing, not for making phone calls.

Which is why I don't think smartphones will completely take over the entire handheld market. I mean even if the market doesn't ever grow significantly, there is still money to be made in this space. Innovation may slow down a bit, and economies of scale won't be as good, but there will still be people who want PDA's designed like PDA's.

Also, I would consider "personal communicators" to be a new form factor that is sort of a hybrid but still unique (Blackberry, Hiptops, maybe even Treo 600). Optimized for communication in general (voice and data), but then not as good as a phone for voice, and not as good as a PDA for other computing applications.

P.S.- Now that being said, you can draw an arbitrary line based on OS and hardware. I think the lines may be blurring, but I still prefer an OS that is optimized for the form factor and task at hand. Meaning that even if I could theoretically run Longhorn or Linux or Mac OS 12 (or whatever is in 2007) on a 2007 palm-sized computer, I may still choose a OS customized for a smaller form factor.

[Gen-M]

I still do not understand why the screen and input mechanism (touchpad, keyboard, mouse, etc) need to be contained in the base system. This is as true for phones as it is for handheld or wearable computers. There is a limit to how small a display becomes before it is useless. Same with keyboards. There is a limit to how big the device can be for most people.

Instead of forcing the "box" to be large enough for a (S)VGA screen and thumbboard - which makes it too large/heavy for a shirt pocket, or to hold up to your ear, why not separate them? In this way each piece can be optimized to the user's requirements, and the computer and radios (Cell/Wi-FI/BT/etc) can be made extremely small and light.

Once you have identified the I/O that makes sense for you, you can upgrade the box without having to buy new display and input mechanisms. By the same token, if a better display technology becomes available, you could upgrade without changing the computing box.

Cellphone users with BT Headsets understand this. Desktops have understood this since they stopped selling the TRS-80. I would think that this would put the "personal" back in Personal Computer.

8O

[Jeff the pianoguy]

I dont think the PDA phones will ever take over completely. At least I hope not. I considered getting one until I realized that almost evey time I'm on the phone,
I'm entering stuff on my ppc. I Know I could use my headset but I dont wear it 24-7 now, and I'm not planning to!

[madmaxmedia]

I still do not understand why the screen and input mechanism (touchpad, keyboard, mouse, etc) need to be contained in the base system. This is as true for phones as it is for handheld or wearable computers. There is a limit to how small a display becomes before it is useless. Same with keyboards. There is a limit to how big the device can be for most people.

Instead of forcing the "box" to be large enough for a (S)VGA screen and thumbboard - which makes it too large/heavy for a shirt pocket, or to hold up to your ear, why not separate them? In this way each piece can be optimized to the user's requirements, and the computer and radios (Cell/Wi-FI/BT/etc) can be made extremely small and light.

Well, you still need certain things built-in if it is going to be a mobile device. But the variation on this that I would like to see is a PDA with video out and USB port that would let you plug in a regular keyboard (for example.) Such a device would have full PDA functionality, but allow me to plug into a monitor and keyboard if available for better interface (at that point it would be like using a regular computer.)

[Mark Johnson]

...the variation on this that I would like to see is a PDA with video out and USB port that would let you plug in a regular keyboard...


You and me both, but Microsoft won't let that happen. If PPC could handle such devices, then it would start to be a viable replacement to notebooks. Microsoft is determined that you buy a Windows XP license (on the desktop/notbook) AND ALSO a Windows CE license with the PPC. Since WinCE arrived they have gone WAY out of their way to make sure it cannot become powerful or flexible enough to "stand alone." They want the PPC to be a "partner device" ONLY and never a "mobile computing core device" like the OQO or Antelope.

[Kacey Green]

I still do not understand why the screen and input mechanism (touchpad, keyboard, mouse, etc) need to be contained in the base system. This is as true for phones as it is for handheld or wearable computers. There is a limit to how small a display becomes before it is useless. Same with keyboards. There is a limit to how big the device can be for most people.

Instead of forcing the "box" to be large enough for a (S)VGA screen and thumbboard - which makes it too large/heavy for a shirt pocket, or to hold up to your ear, why not separate them? In this way each piece can be optimized to the user's requirements, and the computer and radios (Cell/Wi-FI/BT/etc) can be made extremely small and light.

Once you have identified the I/O that makes sense for you, you can upgrade the box without having to buy new display and input mechanisms. By the same token, if a better display technology becomes available, you could upgrade without changing the computing box.

Cellphone users with BT Headsets understand this. Desktops have understood this since they stopped selling the TRS-80. I would think that this would put the "personal" back in Personal Computer.

8O

Modular devices would be so awsome like "Pocket Personal Computer" if it used standard parts that would be awsome, but if they had to be OEM specifice that would be ok as long as third parties were not excluded from adding to the OEM stuff!

[Gen-M]

Modular devices would be so awsome like "Pocket Personal Computer" if it used standard parts that would be awsome, but if they had to be OEM specifice that would be ok as long as third parties were not excluded from adding to the OEM stuff!

Standard interfaces are available - USB, VGA, Bluetooth. All have been implemented on PDAs.

[Kacey Green]

I ment like upgrade your graphics chip, your processor, ram, (harddrive when this happens), screen, battery, radio (wifi, blutooth etc.)

[Perry Reed]

I do think it would be a shame if the palm-sized PC form factor completely disappears, because the phone-optimized device is not suitable for many applications. And if you add GSM to what is essentially a PDA, I still call it a PDA because the form factor is optimized for handheld computing, not for making phone calls.

Which is why I don't think smartphones will completely take over the entire handheld market. I mean even if the market doesn't ever grow significantly, there is still money to be made in this space. Innovation may slow down a bit, and economies of scale won't be as good, but there will still be people who want PDA's designed like PDA's.

Also, I would consider "personal communicators" to be a new form factor that is sort of a hybrid but still unique (Blackberry, Hiptops, maybe even Treo 600). Optimized for communication in general (voice and data), but then not as good as a phone for voice, and not as good as a PDA for other computing applications.

But isn't phone (aka "voice") just another kind of data? Or at least, shouldn't it be considered as such? Yes, its using a different interface (sound instead of sight and speaking instead of tapping or typing). So really the difference in form factor is the type of interaction it's geared towards (audio instead of visual) and not the applications.

So you still have traditional PDAs being squeezed on both ends; on one side you have devices ("SmartPhones") geared towards audio functions but with visual functions as well, and on the other you have more powerful visually oriented devices ("Tablets") being made smaller and resembling traditional PDA form-factors.

Not only that, but just today Microsoft annoounced several features in upcoming versions of their TabletPC one of which was a very Today Screen-like "skin" for those tablets that have screens too small for the traditional Windows interface. Sound familiar?

I love my Pocket PC as much as anyone, but I think the writing is on the wall...

[madmaxmedia]

But isn't phone (aka "voice") just another kind of data? Or at least, shouldn't it be considered as such?

Yes, I agree. That's why I said if you add GSM to a PDA, you can still call it a PDA. Or call it a phone, or smart phone, or whatever you want- ;)

Like you said, each form factor is typically optimized for certain usage. It's much easier to design a device to do 1 thing well, than to do 3 or 4 things well.

Tablet PC's are nice, but what we consider as PDA's still have some advantages. Very little moving parts, instant on, long battery life, optimized operating systems, very pocketable, etc. Someday there will be a TabletPC or whatever PC that has those features, and you may as well call it a PDA just the same- the main technical difference is just the OS, both devices seem designed for mobile use.