Future of Pocket PC

[Andy Sjostrom]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://radio.weblogs.com/0117167/2003/10/31.html#a512' target='_blank'>http://radio.weblogs.com/0117167/20...10/31.html#a512</a><br /><br /></div>Various reports from the PDC conference are starting to emerge on the Internet. You can find one that will interest you below. I believe the person who shouted "NONE!" needs to revisit Microsoft's mission statement, check out the latest market share reports and perhaps take a quick look at hp's mobile business revenue reports. I do hope that Tablet PCs and Smartphones will do very well, but I realize that one does not fit all. I am confident that data centric, wireless handheld devices will play a major role in many scenarios tomorrow as they do today.<br /><br />The future of Pocket PC? BRIGHT!<br /><br />"Computing on the beach: Visions of Mobility<br />This was a very interesting panel discussion. The panel was comprised of folks from various MS product groups, MS Research, and the CTO of Acer was also in attendance. The main theme of the panel discussion was on how to advance mobile computing. The first question was one from the pdcblogger alias. The question was what the future of the Pocket PC is. Almost immediately one of the MS folks yells out NONE!. For the next 3 minutes the panel members (after removing the look of oh crap from their faces) spent their time backing off of that statement. But the laughter in the room and the force of the original reply left little doubt that the SmartPhone and the Tablet PC are going to squeeze the Pocket PC device into a very, very small niche market. As matter of fact the person from MS Research even said he didn’t think it was viable unless Pocket PCs were priced at $100.00 to $150.00."

[Jonathan1]

Well let’s see.
I can’t carry a tablet in my pocket so that’s out, and a smartphone is too small, too limiting on data manipulation, and even with a high res screen (talk about squinting) can only hold so much data on one screen. So where does that leave me. :roll: I think the only reason you get people saying that the PPC is dead, or will be dead, is because they are rooting for the other team that and Bill Gates has a major woody for the tablet pc at this point. :D He’s been pushing it since when? Early 80’s with Pen computing?

[PR.]

Hmmm 8O

I kind of see their thinking on this, people who want PDA features on the move go for the SmartPhone. The people who want more get the Tablet, the problem though is:

a) I find the iPAQ screen border lines on being too small, the smartphone screen IS too small
b) The tablet devices come in at £1500 more than a laptop, and it its running a proper XP so apps running on them are not designed to take advantage of the Tablets features, or optimised to run on their wimpy Crusoe CPUs

Personally I still feel that the Phone and seperate PDA is a better solution that an all in one

[adamz]

Maybe they were talking about the the future of the Pocket PC, but not the Pocket PC Phone Edition. I can see Phone Edition taking over. Although, if they can make Tablet PCs the size of an iPAQ (with a better GUI), that would be okay too.
I agree that smartphones are too small. I love having a larger 3.5-4" screen to write on.

[Skoobouy]

I don't like this business one bit. There is nothing that would work for me as well as a good Pocket PC. Aren't these people listening to PPC owners? Don't they see the Toshiba e805 and the HUGE new window of potential opened by VGA screens? Don't they see the benefit of diversification?

Since last year, my college went from no PDAs to ten of 'em--a Toshiba e310, Palm V, Visor Platinum, Treo 90, Zire 71, HandEra 330, two iPaq 1935s, a Viewsonic V35, and a Palm m500. People want their PDAs, goshdarnit, and if those sticks in the mud can't see that then Pa1m will just have to be the leader again. :roll:

[DanielTS]

Although, if they can make Tablet PCs the size of an iPAQ (with a better GUI), that would be okay too.


+1 :)

Size is primordial. In the future, we'll have a supercomputer in our pocket.

[Stik]

The main theme of the panel discussion was on how to advance mobile computing. The first question was one from the pdcblogger alias. The question was what the future of the Pocket PC is. Almost immediately one of the MS folks yells out NONE!.

With friends like this at Microsoft, who needs enemies? Even if the reply was meant in jest, I fail to find the humor. Really a stupid thing to blurt out when the theme of discussion was how to ADVANCE mobile computing.

Grrrrrr.... 8O

[Jimmy Dodd]

I think a lot of the internal MS sniping at the Pocket PC is due to the lack of acceptance of the Tablet PC and the struggles to get a Smart Phone out the door. A lot of people have bet their reputations on these things and they don't seem to be flying off the shelves (the Tablet PC, at least; too soon to tell for the Smart Phone). I have actually never seen anyone use a Tablet PC outside of a demo. They are kind of neat, but too expensive, too underpowered, and too big for constant portage. I'll lug around my full featured notebook for the big stuff and tote around my iPAQ for the everyday stuff, thank you very much.

MS should remember that if they were to pull support of the PPC most of us would move to a Palm, not a Tablet PC. :roll:

[SandersP]

Gimme a break, tablet PC is total loser. It's too expensive and not convinient at all. I might consider it seriously if it is $600, not $2-3000.

Now PPC might be dead, but hey isn't that what phone edition is for? Personally if there is anything that will kill PPC entirely, it's microsoft PPC development team. They are not responsive, doesn't push the envelop of hardware technology, slow in patching problem..... all in all downright unresponsive and too conservative. That's what will kill PPC, not smartphone.

1. fix screen flexibility. (This should have been addressed a year ago)
2. provide patch and clear upgrade policy to devices (not one of those up to OEM BS)
3. Always two steps ahead of competitor, specially in high end model. (yes that means out innovate Sony's hardware. Again, no 'it's up to OEM' excuse')
4. Address low end model and create better gaming environment for PPC (DX for PPC is a good start)
5.Unified the paltform. (WTF is handPC CE.net? And what on earth is .net phone?)
6. CF .net is not going anywhere. It needs steroid boost.
7. Time to do serious marketing for PPC. It has almost none. pathetic!
8. Basic sub $180 device!
9. WiFi and BT applications are weak. (again, no 'it's up to developer' excuse. Figure out a way to liven up the scene)

Basically PPC team need to bring PPC a little to the edge of consumer electronic instead of sticking too hard on 'little computer' concept. Figure out away to push the envelop without breaking too many UI compatibilities.

The world doesn't need another me-too h2210 clone model, but I sure as hell can use iPOD like device, smart digicam, rugged GPS/hiking gear, gaming PDA, multimedia gadet, etc...

[xbalance]

MS should remember that if they were to pull support of the PPC most of us would move to a Palm, not a Tablet PC. :roll:

My thoughts exactly.

[Ipaqman]

I have every single gadget except a cell phone. I don't want one, too intrusive and ubiquitous for me; at least for now. So, there goes my vote against the smart phone. Plus, can you really surf and talk at the same time with those things? A laptop is too big. If Microsoft kills the PPC, something like IPod will morph into a PPC.

[Candygogo]

I don't believe that the Pocket PC is dead, or that the future is bleak. If anything, it's constantly evolving. Almost every week there's another version with more features coming out. And like many have said, Tablet PC's cost WAY too much money!

As for wireless, I find my pda, bluetooth card and Nokia 3650 works just fine :wink:

[Don Sorcinelli]

I find it surprising that this thread seems to have gone down the path of "MS is abandoning the Pocket PC". One smart-a** comment during a panel discussion does not a dead platform make :wink:

Ironically, I wrote on the very subject of Pocket PC futures just yesterday (http://www.bostonpocketpc.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1894&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0"). My perspective for the article was based upon observations at CTIA Wireless IT, Pocket PC Summit and the Windows Mobile 2003 User Group Tour. Out of all of these things, I saw some upside and some downside to the Pocket PC's future.

I think that an ugly reality to deal with is that while MS continues to support the Pocket PC platform (and by the looks of things, quite nicely), the Pocket PC is no longer the "darling" of the MS mobility strategy. The Smartphone is geared toward the cellular data industry (which is and will continue to change in terms of accessibility and affordability), and the Tablet PC is focused on vertical markets (for now) that have large revenue potential.

As a result of all of this, it will be up to the PPC hardware vendors to ensure the future health of the Pocket PC market. They will have to be the advocates and leaders. If any of the major vendors take MS's marketing emphasis as a hint, then there could be problems.

DonS

[Paragon]

I believe the person who shouted "NONE!" needs to revisit Microsoft's mission statement,

I'd fire that guy! Maybe that's why I'm a one man business. :)

To say that Pocket PC has no future is absurd. If you just consider the functionality one can carry in their pocket with one it is incredible. Table PCs are fine and do the job they are intended to do. Smartphones are as well, but with a Smartphone you don't have near the same ability to gather and manipulate information because of the input, and screen limitations. You can say the same thing when comparing PPCs to Tablets, or Laptops, but when you consider the limitations of the three, PPcs fall in the middle. So, now consider the fact that we have flexible, foldable keyboards presently, and flexible screens on the horizon somewhere, doesn't it seem more likely that Pocket PCs will be the ones to evolve into the more useful tool. Pocket PCs can easily evolve into something no bigger than a cellphone yet have a flexible sceeen that could easily fold out to a much largere size or be viewable in a size we have now, covering the limitations we see now in all three.

I say Pocket PCs have a great future!

Dave

[jmarkevich]

Now PPC might be dead, but hey isn't that what phone edition is for? Personally if there is anything that will kill PPC entirely, it's microsoft PPC development team. They are not responsive, doesn't push the envelop of hardware technology, slow in patching problem.....


Excellent comment, SandersP. What I found mostly interesting, is that this is history repeating itself. Palm had exactly the same issues about 4 years ago, and are only now starting to rectify it. Well almost. They didn't try to upstage their own product by pushing a combination blender/sun hat as the next big thing.

To complete the picture, change all of the executives, reinvent the company TWICE, and wait four years. Maybe that one comment was closer to truth than we'd like...

[jmarkevich]

I believe the person who shouted "NONE!" needs to revisit Microsoft's mission statement,

I'd fire that guy! Maybe that's why I'm a one man business. :)

To say that Pocket PC has no future is absurd. If you just consider the functionality one can carry in their pocket with one it is incredible.

I think you're talking about the PPCs *present*. Sure it's astounding if you think about what we can do. But stall the development, or project along the same lines we've seen in the past few years... Just imagine 5 years from now. Based on past performance, we can expect the 2008 PPC to be:

- 320x240 (ok, I'm being very cynical here)
- 96 MB of onboard RAM (though you can get 1TB CF cards)
- 1GHz XScale processors (that will struggle under PPC 2008, or whatever they call it)
- $600

Would you buy that?

[Felix Torres]

...there *is* a scenario where PDAs do vanish...
More precisely, the Windows CE PDAs, get replaced...

The first thing to remember is that MS is a *products* company, so in their mindset Pocket PC is not a technology but a product.
And products don't live forever.
Some evolve into something new and some are simply replaced.

The future for Pocket PC is probably a bit of both; evolution into Smartphones and Phone Edition-followups; and outright replacement by a whole new creature derived from Tablet PC; say, an Antelope/OQO-style mini tablet that sells for $500 with a 4 inch screen and a 4GB HD.

The second thing to remember is that some products are inherently transitory; they exist only because of a temporary intersection of user need and technology limitations. The moment one or the other disappears, the product ceases to be relevant and vanishes, practically overnight.

Two examples, one old, one current:

Old: Transportable computers like the Osbourne, Kaypro, and Original Compaq were once a major part of the computing environment. By current standards, they were monsters: Thirty pounds and the size of a suitcase; but by contemporary standards they were marvels of miniaturization--a full computer you could safely carry with you and use at a remote location or hotel room! Then, suddenly, technology changed: LCDs became a viable display technology and you were no longer constrained by the size and power needs of a vacuume tube display. Over the course a year or so, transportables vanished, practically overnight, replaced by 9 pound clamshells that could actually run on batteries for a couple hours while you were in transit! For the last ten years, practically all portable computers have been clamshells that run on battery power. Only recently, with the growing disparity of raw compute power between P4 desktops and the best portable chips and the growing use of notebooks as desktop replacements, has the transportable concept made a return in the form of desknotes. Whether they remain a niche product or blossom into a full product category is unclear but unlikely given the parallel emergence of device such as the VAIO W and other all-in-one compact desktops that address many of the same needs, as well as Intel's new focus on low-power consumption with the Pentium-M that allows near-desktop levels of compute power and long battery life, bringing balance back into the notebook/desktop market split.

New: analog modems. Dial-up is dying, isn't it? Modems have gone from external add-ons to stadard built-in component on every laptop to just plain missing on some of the new, wireless-enabled portable computers now on sale. If Wi-fi and hotspot technology on one hand, and Cell-phones with Bluetooth, on the other, keep proliferating, it is easy to see analog modems going the way of a serial port; a niche legacy device slowly fading out of the market.

And the same thing *could* happen to PDAs as a whole, not just PocketPCs.

PDAs exist because there is a need for a 4-8 ounce pocket computer that can give 8-10 hours of continuous use for under $500. In 1995, the only way to do this was with a 16-bit Dragonball CPU, 128Kb of RAM, and Graffitti. The Original Palm Pilot. Five years later, new technology allowed 32-bit RISC processors, 32 Mb of RAM and QVGA color plus multimedia, the still-evolving PocketPC. PALM treated the category as a finished product and stopped evolving it, so the PocketPC came to define what a PDA should be. Microsoft, however, understands that products evolve or die and sometimes they evolve and *then* die.

And they also understand that it is usually best if you render your own product obsolete, instead of waiting for somebody else to do it to you.

So it is far from impossible that forward thinking PocketPC vendors are in fact thinking of what comes next and that what comes next is not a PDA as we know it, but a true Pocket-sized PC; a mini-tablet PC. In fact, the pieces for the first generation are coming together even as we speak:

Exhibit one: Toshiba e800 - 4 in VGA screen and 128MB of RAM for $599 list. Probably $499 street by January at the latest.

Exhiibit two: The Cornice Storage element; a 1.5GB embeddable HD that OEMs for $50 today. Next year the same price point will bring 4GB. By 05, probably 10Gb.

Exhibit three: Transmeta next generation CPUs offer lower power consumption and greater power and OEM for well under $50, prices that are comparable to StrongARM.

Exhibit four: Flash RAM is definitely within the scope of Moore's law so capacities can and usually do double every 18-24 months. Thus at the same price point where you see 128Mb today, you'll see 256Mb in 05. And if the computer uses an embedded HD to boot up, you sabve the cost of the FLASH ROM, Nand or NOR.

Exhibit five: The original iPAQ 3xxx series that established PocketPC as a viable product weighed as much as nine ounces and cost as much as $800 with an appropriate sleeve and Compact Flash storage.

So, lets be honest, how likely is it that we'll see an iPAQ-sized Tablet PC with a 1Ghz CPU and eight hours of battery life selling for $599 in 05? Pretty high, I'd say.

Actually, all it really takes is for MS to bless the use of a passive digitizer and you could do it next year for around $1000.

And, when you consider the benefits of a full XP box in that form factor for presentation purposes alone, it would take over the high-end of the PDA market instantly. And from there all it takes is the standard PC downward-pricing spiral that has brought iPAQ 3xxx power down from $900 to $199 in less than five years.

So yes, it is quite likely that 5 years down the road, PocketPCs *will* be history unless they can profitably sell at PALM Zire prices, which is to say under $100.

So, the MS guy may have been jumping the gun in saying "none" but chances are, in *his* office, its already 2006, the year Longhorn is broadly deployed and in use. And I would not bet any money that PocketPCs as we know it--which are really a 24-36 month investment in the business market--will still be around in 2006 at *current* prices.

It just might be that the PocketPC of 2006 will in fact be a pocket-sized version of the TabletPC of 2003. And as the owner of one of the latter, as well as a 2001 PocketPC, I have no problem with this scenario.

Of course, there are alternatives: PPC vendors might find ways to squeeze more must-have features into an iPAQ 19xx form factor to justify a $300-400 price point, but the odds of CE-based pocketPCs long enduring at $599 after 8- and 6- inch tablet PCs come out for under $1000 are not a bet I'd want to take. Not after what happened to the HandheldPCs.

But smart money at this point says that by '06 the whole PALM vs PPC thing will be as relevant as ATARI vs AMIGA. ;-)

And, guys, this is *NOT* a bad thing.

[egads]

I have every single gadget except a cell phone. I don't want one, too intrusive and ubiquitous for me; at least for now. So, there goes my vote against the smart phone. Plus, can you really surf and talk at the same time with those things? A laptop is too big. If Microsoft kills the PPC, something like IPod will morph into a PPC.

Yea brother !!!

Don't want a cell phone, don't need a cell phone, wish cell phones were so expensive that only the people who should be using them were using them. How can you get info off of your smartphone when you are talking to someone and don't have a headset ?
I also will never use a PDA to send email and surf the web. Even if the screen res. was 640x400 web browsing would still a be pain.

All I want is a PDA, if Microsoft continues in the direction they are going I will own a Palm/Sony VERY soon.

[daveshih]

Guys, guys! I don't believe this. Why all the Tablet PC bashing? I understand that this is a PPC site, but man, does it have to be this way -- either you LIVE or you DIE? The main theme of this thread is to promote the fact that there is room for ppc as a platform to thrive, so why these hostility toward SmartPhone and Tablet PC?

Let's think in a logical fashion...

What do users want?

1. Bigger screen, and
2. More mobility.

It takes time to get these two mutually exclusive features into a reasonable package. MS is working on all three (Tablet PC to address bigger screen, SmartPhone to address mobility, and PPC to reasonably merge the two) fronts, believe or not, and it takes time. I have to applause their effort to address the need. Where else can you find a company who is still trying (in their own way)?

Unfortunately, these three platforms are bound to run into each other. Think about it:
1. They want to make a notebook (tablet) smaller and more mobile --> like ppc.
2. They want to make a ppc or a smartphone more powerful and with bigger screen --> like tablet/notebook.

What's the solution? I don't know, but that's partially what that panel was about.

Now for all you tablet bashers. Please go out and try one before posting all these inaccurate comments:
1. Expensive -- actually, all similarly-equiped sub-notebook-class (3 lbs.) computers are expensive. There are no cheap subnotebooks! Also, don't forget that MS charges 4 times the amount for XP Tablet Edition than the normal XP Home/Pro.
2. Slow -- Actually, 2nd generation Tablet from Acer, Motion, and others all have Pentium M processors, which in real life apps equals their Desktop brothers running at twice their GHz. For example, a 1 GHz Pentium M runs like a 2 GHz desktop P4. No kidding.
3. Not portable -- Actually, it depends on to what you're comparing to. To a typical notebook, tablet is by far more mobile and portable.
4. No usable apps -- Actually, XP Tablet Edition is a superset of XP, so all apps that runs on XP will run on tablet. The tablet stylus is just like the mouse. For those apps that don't (yet) support inking, other ppc-like pen-based input is availlable, even FITALY!! All those who looks down on pen-input methods on tablet are, in fact, looking down on PPC.

Sorry, probably vent too much after reading all these negative PR for tablet... :cry:

Dave

[yawanag]

With the advent of the PC and Cell Phone, I couldn't ask for more except more MEMORY!

I've managed to find the software to carry me through my day but I've had to delete a lot of apps because of Memory. That's why I can't wait for the MDA II.

[whydidnt]

The one thing to remember is that Microsoft's first priority is its bottom line. It is hard to imagine PPC's being a more profitable product than a Tablet PC or Smart Phone to MS. In this scenario, why would MS decide to invest heavily in a low or non-profit product such as the PPC?

The only reason they got into the market in the first place is they were worried that PALM and NETSCAPE were going to partner and try to create a mainstream alternative to Windows. They wanted Palm to have to focus on their handhelds, not the desktop space.

Now that the current threat has moved elsewhere so has MS attention. I fear a lot of us will be looking very seriously at POS 6 devices when they come out early next year. I think many of them will obliterate the current limitations of POS and we have already seen what the POS hardware vendors can do to push the envelope. 8O

At this point, I think MS really doens't care if they don't become a dominant player in the PDA Market.
:(
Whydidnt

[rubberdemon]

Hey I second the Tablet defender. And as for the usefulness of a tablet/phone combo, I'm already there - as of August I dumped my PPC and moved to a smartphone and a Tablet and I'm not going back. And I've had PocketPCs ever since the Nino.

I tried and tried to use my PPC as a replacement for carrying my bulky laptop with me, and even got the XDA for a while to try and replace the phone and the laptop with one device. But for me at least it can't be done; not now, and maybe not at all. As people have said (ironically, while dissing the smartphone), screen size and usability make it virtually impossible to do real work on a smartphone - but this also holds true for a PPC. Sure, I could fiddle with a Word or Excel document with my portable keyboard, but my real work includes Photoshop, Dreamweaver, InDesign... and without Windows XP, I can't use any of those.

I got a Compaq TC1000 in September, and I love it: it ain't pocketable, but that's not what I'm looking for - my smartphone gives me music, email, games, whatever, but my tablet lets me work on the ferry, on the bus, in bed. It has 4 hours of battery, totally fine performance, I hardly feel it in my backpack, and I know the next generations will be even better. I can't imagine going back to a PPC now... though I do enjoy seeing what the technology is doing. The potential convergence of the Tablet and PPC is where the future is at, and I'm curious to see what will happen next.

[shindullin]

One thing I think that people haven't mentioned yet is that while technology may change, people don't. While it might be cool for most of us to have a supercomputer in their pocket, most people won't need on in their pocket or their house for that matter.
I think that PPC's will reach a point of maturity and utility that it meets most people's basic needs and then it will no longer have to really evolve, prices will drop below the floor and companies will have to go out and find a new "developing" market. Just like desktops. Most people, and companies for that matter, don't need the latest, fastest desktop anymore. Even the cheapo machines are so fast and so powerful that they do what most people need, so why upgrade. Same thing has happened with software products like Microsoft Word. Word already does so much that it pretty much meets almost everyone's needs. Why get the next version when you're already super happy w. what you have?
Until then, there will continue to be massive changes and competition between competing platforms and hardware setups until someone creates a products that bowls everyone else's product down. Much like ipaq wiped out all of it's ppc bretheren (with the limited exception of the Jornada) and windows/intel wiped out it's desktop OS competitors (with the limited exeption of Macs). Remember the OS/chip wars in the 70's and 80's? Microsoft/Intel now dominate because they came up with products that statisfy most people's needs most of the time.
Someone will eventually pack that at the moment unknown list of "essential" products into a handheld device and that will be the winner in the future. It may be longhorn subset (ie PPC) or a superset (ie Tablet PC), or it may be Linux, Symbian or Palm. At this point no-one knows. But I think that it would be bad business for Microsoft not to hedge its bets and one thing Gates is not, is a bad businessman. PPC will continue to be developed and so will smartphones and Tablets and Gates will have three entries on determining the future of the mobile universe rather then the single entry by everyone else.
Also, Microsoft may be a single company but it is not a monolith. These three groups are competing with each other within Microsoft for funds and attention in addition to competing with each other in the marketplace. I suspect that Microsoft guy who said "none" was tablet and/or smartphone guy within the company and is experiencing pressure/jealousy over the fact PPC's are moderately successful while the other two products are pretty much failures (tablets) or still born (smartphones) at this point. So I wouldn't place much stock in his comment. If the rumors of VGA and other enhacements coming out next year are true, seems to me that Microsoft is still committed to the platform.
As for me I'm on the fence as to what my new device will be next year. If I were in the market right now I would have to seriously consider Sony's UX50. Although I'm not a fan of memory stick.
I like my Genio and maybe Tosh or HP will have something similarly compelling next year. Seems to me with all the innovations we seen in the last few months and the anticipated innovations in the near future that it would be patently obvious that people are making enough money that they are still committed to the platform. We can start talking about the death of PPC when it stops making people money. Until then, no-one's walking away.

[shindullin]

That was really long, rambling comment. I think I better get a cup of coffee.
:morning:

Hope at least some of what I wrote made sense.

[AZMark]

For those of you that think NONE was not MS's actual response are misleading yourselves. MS employees all know the company line and are well indoctrinated into what is and what is not important.

MS does not want this nitch to survive and will do all it can to kill it off. The only reason they are in it, is to kill off Palm. With phones they make the money on volume, on Tablets or laptops they make it on the software licence.

PDA function will go into the phone.
Full computer functionality will go into the larger devices.
Handheld will again become a high price vertical only market.

And what do those of us that want fuller functionality in a hand held device do? Looks like Palm is the answer here.

[kel_cheng]

+1 :)

Size is primordial. In the future, we'll have a supercomputer in our pocket.

By then, the OS / software on the desktop would require much more than a supercomputer from nowadays :wink:

[SteveR]

The Smartphone is geared toward the cellular data industry (which is and will continue to change in terms of accessibility and affordability), and the Tablet PC is focused on vertical markets (for now) that have large revenue potential.

We build applications for the industrial vertical market (machinery inspection, work order management, things like that) and the driving criteria behind the adoption of technology in a vertical market are:size - there is a size above which no technology, however compelling, will be carried by an operator,
legibility - if screen real estate gets too small, programs become too involved or the items on the screen become hard to read,
communications - data has to be sent from the handheld device to the plant network, easily and flawlessly Right now, industrial Pocket PCs excel on 1 and 2. There are many available form factors, and a right size is available for most needs. We have had good success using the Intermec 700 series, as well as other Pocket PCs for these sorts of applications.

Communications can be an issue - as we all know, ActiveSync could use some work.

The point of this missive (and I do have one!) is that the Pocket PC form factor is a good compromise between size and legibility. The Smartphone screen is simply too small, and navigation options are too limited. The Tablet PC will find some use in the industrial vertical market, but I don't see everyone carrying one of these things around - something that I think could definitely happen with Pocket PCs.

A Pocket PC with a built-in voice radio, a small (4") VGA screen and reliable communication (both docked and wireless) hits the sweet spot for a wide variety of industrial applications.

Steve

[AZMark]

There are many available form factors, and a right size is available for most needs. We have had good success using the Intermec 700 series, as well as other Pocket PCs for these sorts of applications.

Communications can be an issue - as we all know, ActiveSync could use some work.

The point of this missive (and I do have one!) is that the Pocket PC form factor is a good compromise between size and legibility. The Smartphone screen is simply too small, and navigation options are too limited. The Tablet PC will find some use in the industrial vertical market, but I don't see everyone carrying one of these things around - something that I think could definitely happen with Pocket PCs.
Steve

But how much does MS make on the Intermec 700? You make lots for the customization, Intermec makes a good margin on their unit, but MS only takes a small portion.

[Kevin Daly]

I actually attended that PDC session and heard the various remarks in context, so I think Felix Torres was very much on the right track.
The point was explicitly made by the panel members that the Pocket PC niche would eventually be filled by what is in effect a full PC, shrunk down to small size...both tablet versions and clamshell types.
Obviously the first reaction is "Oh no, they're going to repeat the original Windows CE mistake!"...but no. Small PCs are going to become more PDA-like in their functionality and ease of use, and they understand that people don't want to wait half a day for the boot sequence to complete.
Interestingly the Acer guy made the point that with the first batch of Tablet PCs, manufacturers didn't really understand the platform, but with the next generation they have a much better idea of the ways in which people want to use them, including PIM features.
Given these considerations, and the fact that by the time the Pocket PC per se is superseded those of us doing development will be doing it for both PC and Pocket PC with managed code (and the next version of the Compact Framework will be much closer to the current desktop feature set...I posted details about this a couple of days ago but unfortunately by then that thread was pretty much dead, so I doubt many people saw the list), I think that when the time comes that devices that look like Pocket PCs are running some version of longhorn, the transition will be no more traumatic than that from Windows CE 3.0 to Windows CE Net 4.2.
In many ways the pressure on the Pocket PC platform from Smartphones and PCs is reminiscent of what happened to minicomputers: squeezed by ever more powerful PC on the hand and ever more compact mainframes on the other until more than anything else the word "minicomputer" became largely redundant. But life went on.

[AZMark]

In many ways the pressure on the Pocket PC platform from Smartphones and PCs is reminiscent of what happened to minicomputers: squeezed by ever more powerful PC on the hand and ever more compact mainframes on the other until more than anything else the word "minicomputer" became largely redundant. But life went on.

Exactly. MS and IBM killed off Unisys and DEC and others and kept the lucrative leftovers. Now they are trying to kill off Palm, so they can give you the wonderful Longhorn in a hand held package, better, faster, more easily programed, more flexible. But, hey, wait where is Word and Excel. $495.00 of course.

[Jolard]

Call me disloyal, (and I do LOVE my PPC) but I just don't think it matters what they call it, mini tablet, smart phone, ppc, etc, as long as it does what I want, mobile computing. I read e-books, I play games, I use PIM, I listen to music, use maps, and I watch videos, all on a ppc (ipaq 1940) that fits in my pocket and goes everywhere with me. If smart phones get larger screens and can do all the above, then I am happy to add cell phone abilities to my experience, and ditch my cell. If tablet pc's get small enough and lite enough to fit in my pocket, then I will be happy with the added power, functionality, and compatability.

Personally I would not replace my ppc with anything that didn't fit in my pocket. That is the beauty of the thing, it is with me always, and I don't have to look like the geek I am with a belt clip. My ppc is now my wallet, (in its leather case with my license and debit card in it!:) and it is just so convenient to have it always. That is where the functionality comes in.

A large tablet is portable, but I am not going to have it with me always. A smart phone is nice, but the screen real estate is too small for reading, movies, maps, games etc.

Personally I see the future as being in a Pocket PC form factor, with a pull out (or virtual) keyboard, as well as a pull out screen to increase viewable space when necessary. This is doable in 5 years, and there will be a market for it. If they want to call it smart phone or tablet, I am fine as long as it fits in my pocket.

[ultach]

You would think that Microsoft could have learned that Tablet PCs
promoted by earlier companies didn't make it. Take Be Inc.
for instance. They focused their entire business model on
these devices and died a painful death.

I have no need for a Tablet PC. And as for a Smart Phone,
show me one that won't suck the batteries dry and has the same
display size and funtional capabilities as my PocketPC. Again,
the Marketing Wonks at MS are all abuzz that TabletPC/Smart Phone
must be their destiny. I beg to differ.


I think a lot of the internal MS sniping at the Pocket PC is due to the lack of acceptance of the Tablet PC and the struggles to get a Smart Phone out the door. A lot of people have bet their reputations on these things and they don't seem to be flying off the shelves (the Tablet PC, at least; too soon to tell for the Smart Phone). I have actually never seen anyone use a Tablet PC outside of a demo. They are kind of neat, but too expensive, too underpowered, and too big for constant portage. I'll lug around my full featured notebook for the big stuff and tote around my iPAQ for the everyday stuff, thank you very much.

MS should remember that if they were to pull support of the PPC most of us would move to a Palm, not a Tablet PC. :roll:

[TheScream]

I guess this is why Jason registered this site (http://www.tabletpcthoughts.com/) back in 2001. :D

[madbart]

Guys instead of getting all emotional about the "Death of the PPC" take a minute and sit down and list all the things that you use your PPC for.

Then work out the percentage of what you use for business versus pleasure.

Your business use for the PPC would be a lesser percentage than that of your personal pleasure.

MS and the like are only interested in big business adoption. If it doesn't sell millions of units to this sector they simply will not be interested. They are not interested in keeping existing users happy. What they are interested in is high returns for their shareholder.

They would be more than happy to leave the "retail" sh&tfighter market to the like of Plam.

[Ed Hansberry]

The one thing to remember is that Microsoft's first priority is its bottom line. It is hard to imagine PPC's being a more profitable product than a Tablet PC or Smart Phone to MS. In this scenario, why would MS decide to invest heavily in a low or non-profit product such as the PPC?
It is more than just dollars per Pocket PC license sold.
• Look at their hardware business - keyboards, mice, etc. Not a lot of margin there, so not everything MS does requires fat margins.
• WM2003 devices encourage use of Terminal Server, which require corporate licensing fees.
• They encourage Remote ActiveSync - so hello Exchange 2003 upgrades.
• The new VS.Net Studio is an excellent platform for WM2003 development. Ka-Ching!

There is more but I think the Mobile Device Strategy at MS is more tightly woven to other product lines which do have larger margins. Sure, no one is going to buy a 2003 device then up and buy Exchange 2003, but if you are on the fence about an upgrade, having some 2003 devices inhouse can tip the scales. The same goes with everything else MS has linked to the Mobile Device platform.

[Paragon]

Ed is right on the money with what he says. And it goes further than that even. We all know that Microsoft is developing the desktop as the central device in a multie component computing/entertainment/data system where you pick the mobile device(s) that suit your needs best. That could be a laptop, Smartphone, Table PC, Pocket PC, etc. Each having a set of functions that it does best. Perhaps PPC is a small chunk of that compared to the laptop, but it is an important part none the less, and it contributes to the whole picture. I think for that reason alone we will see PPC or some variation of it live on. It would be a bit like cutting off a finger...yeah you can live without it, but in the big picture you are better off with it still attached. :)

Dave

[AZMark]

Ed, how many mice and keyboards has MS sold? Even if they make a few bucks, they make them many times over.

Volume or margin. They are in this market and competing with Palm on Palms terms only because Palm has owned it for so long. Selling a $300-$400 device that can do 90% of what most use computers for fit in the palm of your hand and require no training or additional software is NOT the market MS wants to be in. And it kinda hurts with the arrogant remarks. What kind of idiot would joke about the death of a platform that the company is currently promoting?

Is there a market for the $350 device to do it all in the Palm of your hand? You bet! Is there money to be made there. Of course! Is MS going to take you there?

I've been a PPC promoter for a long time. My first PPC was a Uniden! But I think my next will be a Palm. At least I'll be giving money to a company that doesn't joke about the market they are in.

[jerobbins]

It just might be that the PocketPC of 2006 will in fact be a pocket-sized version of the TabletPC of 2003. And as the owner of one of the latter, as well as a 2001 PocketPC, I have no problem with this scenario.

I think this is a likely scenario, although it might not happen by 2006. Look at the features in the next version of PPC (this is from the MBL317 session at the recent PDC - Under the Covers: Windows Mobile Device Platform Futures):

1) Improved compatibility with the desktop version of .NET, especially the .NET framework shipping with Longhorn.
2) Use of Managed Code
3) DirectX 8 level graphics

Now consider that with Longhorn Microsoft is switching applications to managed code (using the .NET common-language runtime (CLR)) and a new UI. One of the main benefits on the new UI is that it uses vector graphics and positioning instead of the current raster (bitmapped) graphics. The new UI also supports layout engines, just like the old Java AWT layouts. This means that an application should be able to work on devices with different screen sizes and densities. The OS will change the layout of the app to handle the different sizes. Of course, this behavior can be overridden if the application wants to have fixed layouts at certain sizes.

So, this means that if a computer capable of running Longhorn can be made the size of a PPC, standard applications written specifically for Longhorn should work on it. Moreover, they will function much better than current apps will on something like an OQO with a 4" 800x600 screen.

I think that eventually the equivalent to the current PPC will be an actual PC, capable of running most regular applications. There will still be a market for a disconnected PDA, but since the average cell phone will support contacts and appointments, it won't be a large market, and will likely be supported by devices like the Palm Zire (or even cheaper PDAs).

Keep in mind that MS is also adding PIM functionality to watches with their SPOT initiative. They'll probably put more emphasis on that as the hardware improves since they derive a continuous revenue stream from the service (much like TiVo or the XM radio does).

Jim

[Kevin Daly]

There's actually another way of looking at this process if it makes anyone feel better....
Longhorn places considerable emphasis on the Personal in Personal Computer: consider for instance all the attention paid to making contacts (although that word is inadequate) readily available in the same way that a file is readily available today, and the various features that are intended to make the PC friendlier and easier to use, and encouraging human ways of doing things rather than machine-centric approaches (yes, that was a largely content-free phrase. Sorry).
If you wanted to stretch a point (not something I normally shrink from), you could argue that the PC is in fact turning into an up-sized PDA (I'm deliberately avoiding the phrase "PDA on steroids" because I think that metaphor has been just about done to death, don't you?).
And now to return to my original thesis (they don't come more pompous than that folks):
The future of the Pocket PC and other forms of Windows-based computing device is one of convergence of capability supporting the form factors and configurations that people find useful or desirable. By the time that leads to a drastic change in the handheld area, it won't really matter a hell of a lot which version of Windows is running under the hood.
Bearing in mind also that Windows CE in its er, natural state looks a lot like Windows 2000 to the user: there would be nothing to prevent Longhorn For Very Small Tablets Indeed from having a Pocket PC-type presentation layer.

[madbart]

• Look at their hardware business - keyboards, mice, etc. Not a lot of margin there, so not everything MS does requires fat margins.
• WM2003 devices encourage use of Terminal Server, which require corporate licensing fees.
• They encourage Remote ActiveSync - so hello Exchange 2003 upgrades.
• The new VS.Net Studio is an excellent platform for WM2003 development. Ka-Ching!



That is all well & good but how many people actually utilise these features?
The would be very much in the minority!

[Ed Hansberry]

That is all well & good but how many people actually utilise these features?
The would be very much in the minority!
Do you have statistics to back that up or are you just assuming that all PPC owners in corporate environments that have terminal servers in place, Exchange 2000 with Mobile Info server or just Exchange 2003, or database syncs to SQL2000 with SQL2000 for CE or have in house development departments don't use any of that stuff? You think they just use the Pocket PC for PIM and Jawbreaker?

I know most of that stuff doesn't work for SOHO users, but even getting to a slightly larger company with Windows Server (2000 or 2003) Small Business Edition can start to take advantage of some of this stuff by simply typing in their user name and password in the appropriate box on the Pocket PC. And yeah, it takes a license. :)

[madbart]

That is all well & good but how many people actually utilise these features?
The would be very much in the minority!
Do you have statistics to back that up or are you just assuming that all PPC owners in corporate environments that have terminal servers in place, Exchange 2000 with Mobile Info server or just Exchange 2003, or database syncs to SQL2000 with SQL2000 for CE or have in house development departments don't use any of that stuff? You think they just use the Pocket PC for PIM and Jawbreaker?

I know most of that stuff doesn't work for SOHO users, but even getting to a slightly larger company with Windows Server (2000 or 2003) Small Business Edition can start to take advantage of some of this stuff by simply typing in their user name and password in the appropriate box on the Pocket PC. And yeah, it takes a license. :)

Ed i sell thousands of these unit per annum through one of my companies. My other company is develops custom software applications for the ppc market using Ipaqs, Symbol & Intermec units.

On research we have done we have found the majority utilise them only for calenders notes & email when it comes to business. The majority of applications loaded are for personal use not business