Meeting With Steve Ballmer

[Andy Sjostrom]

I met Steve Ballmer two days ago in a very interesting meeting at the <a href="http://bln.hotel-adlon.de/galerie/photo2/index.htm">Hotel Adlon</a> in Berlin. Steve has been travelling in Europe to be present at several Windows 2003 launches and in between he had other meetings scheduled. The meeting participants were Steve, the German General Manager and seven MVPs. It was an awesome experience that lasted about 1.5 hours. We discussed the market in general, licensing and we also got to talk about various Open Source and Linux aspects. The other MVPs were Windows Server focused, so the discussion were more overall/general than just mobile devices. Microsoft is incredibly aware of what surrounds them in terms of customers, partners and competitors and it was inspiring to see Steve up close being so engaged in both the big picture as well as in individual product strategies. He is an amazing guy and definitely on top of what goes on.<br /><br />As some of you may know, I have been <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=11850 ">looking at Linux in mobile devices</a> for a while and at the meeting I shared a few of my thoughts on that subject. First, I would like to thank everyone that helped me during the process of learning and analyzing. I have had a good deal of great e-mail exchanges with many of you. Thank you! Read on to learn about what my own, personal analysis is. <!><br /><br />In brief summary, my own, personal analysis on what is going on in the mobile device market is that it continues to be extremely competitive, that Palm is soon out of the big picture and that Linux joins Symbian and Microsoft in the mobile devices platform battle. I believe that Linux will start to appear in both data- and voice centric devices in volume within 12 months, but not without really tough and inherent challenges. The Linux players need to overcome the challenges of coordinating a disparate open source community, hardware innovation and commercial production. This might happen eventually as major market players such as Motorola, Matsu****a and Sony (the two latter in partnership) and others are now moving resources and efforts from other platforms to Linux. Their goals are as it seems toprepare data centric products and services to corporate customers that are standardizing on Java primarily and Linux secondarily, make voice centric consumer devices which they control from hardware specification and platform perspectives and become one de facto mobile device platform standard owner and thereby gaining control and potential licensing revenues.<br /><br />Hardware innovation is beginning to take place, despite the fact that Linux in mobile devices has just begun its journey. As on the desktop and server side, there are a number of available Linux distributions and as on the desktop and server side some are more popular than others. Over time, more and more users and developers make their choices leading to higher concentrations of efforts around fewer distributions.<br /><br />Linux key to distribution insulation is Java. By developing the core source code in Java, the efforts to move the code base across distributions can be manageable. Linux based devices will come in many shapes and forms including the typical data centric PDAs, voice centric cell phones and forms within the hybrid grounds in between. Most devices are currently under development and have not gone into commercial production. From a volume perspective, currently only Motorola seems to have devices lined up for mass production. Users of Linux devices have a number of third party applications to choose from. Handango is a common source of commercial applications, and Linux has ten times more the amount of applications in comparison with Nokia 7650.<br /><br />It won’t be an easy ride for Linux into this market. Linux has a lot to prove, a vast amount of challenges to overcome and success is not automatic. However, I believe that chances are that we’ll see Linux kill Palm in the mid term future and challenge both Symbian and Microsoft in the long term future. Exciting times ahead!

[bdegroodt]

You forgot one important factor that will influence a Linux market...Perhaps more than any other OS, Linux has a significant and zealous following that will make the Linux PDA marketplace a reality. Something not to be under estimated.

I wonder....Does Linux save Palm ala BSD and Apple?

[Andy Sjostrom]

You forgot one important factor that will influence a Linux market...Perhaps more than any other OS, Linux has a significant and zealous following that will make the Linux PDA marketplace a reality. Something not to be under estimated.

I wonder....Does Linux save Palm ala BSD and Apple?

I agree. In fact, my post is a brief summary. The full analysis is a twenty page document, and I also cover the community aspects.

If Linux in mobile devices takes off, I am sure the current Linux community -- across the range -- will play a role in that.

[bdegroodt]

The good of this, to me, is that this is an issue important enough to get Steve to sit down and listen about it. It's a rare CEO from a company this large that gets into the brass tacks of their industry.

That said...Go Linux :twisted:

[Andy Sjostrom]

The good of this, to me, is that this is an issue important enough to get Steve to sit down and listen about it. It's a rare CEO from a company this large that gets into the brass tacks of their industry.

That said...Go Linux :twisted:

I agree! OK, the meeting was really about many, many things and "mobile devices" was far from the main topic. But yes... it is really cool that a CEO takes time to meet us little guys! :D

[bdegroodt]

Well, the truth please...We know Bill isn't into the whole PDA thing, what about Steve? What's he carrying?

[Andy Sjostrom]

Well, the truth please...We know Bill isn't into the whole PDA thing, what about Steve? What's he carrying?

I didn't ask him what he carried. Some Pocket PCs (and Smartphones) nowadays are so small you can't tell if someone is carrying them. :D
I can, however, say that Steve took notes using pen and paper, as did everyone else in the room, except for me. I used my Smartphone + keyboard. 8)

The German GM had Tanager device (Smartphone).

[Nellwaskilled]

The time for mobile Linux isn't here yet. almost.. but not quite. It will be here in about 3-5 years.

the requirement:
1. Bigger hardware. Linux require somewhat larger resource to deliver similar features than PPC or palm. This is not bad, just like bigger PPC is not bad compared to smaller palm. But that mean the hardware has to catch up in order Linux full potential be realized.

2. Standard. when there is standard Linux trive. protocols, industrial proceedure, implementation etc.

3. Cheap, standard reliable, non regulated airwave for wireless transmission. plus the associated gear. Some form of Wifi will be the vehicle for Linux handheld to become popular.

4. unregulated , academic development settings. (It is strange but all big and successfull Linux project has this feature)

The next big revolution for Linux will be in China, instead of the internet and geeks basement. It will be driven by chip foundries, super large but low margin market, and lax regulations.

1. The biggest foundry, and a lot of wireles intelectual property are located there. (observe how the taiwanese ar trying to muscle in to phone market)

2. The need to connect the entire population on the cheap. Nokia+Motorola are to expensive and their IP structure is not friendly to big foundries.

3. tons of EE and emerging software industry.

--------
so around the early next decade, I will go to walmart, buy super cheap all in one server with wireless capability for about $4-500, a couple of $50 antenna gear, and head to handphone sections and grab a pair of $95 smarphone devices. And I will be able to set up my own wireless phone service.

The smartphone is functionally similar to current h5450.

[kaiden.1]

Great Post!

I was wondering how long it would be before eveidence would show up of what Sony is planning! They always seem to be a step ahead in projecting and planning, never standing still for anyone. It keeps them on the forefront. One thing is for sure; Sony and Matsu****a can push the envelope and it might surprise everyone how fast they can push something into production. They are BIG companies with lots of money and resources not to be under estimated or second guessed! And secondly; when their product does come out, it won't be some stupid device either! 8)

I really like Sony; they are a driving company and fun to watch!

Way to go Sony! I can't wait to see where this goes. I for one am not dedicated to anything, including the PPC. If something comes out that is better; I'm all over it! :D

[bdegroodt]

Great Post!

I was wondering how long it would be before eveidence would show up of what Sony is planning! They always seem to be a step ahead in projecting and planning, never standing still for anyone. It keeps them on the forefront. One thing is for sure; Sony and Matsu****a can push the envelope and it might surprise everyone how fast they can push something into production. They are BIG companies with lots of money and resources not to be under estimated or second guessed! And secondly; when their product does come out, it won't be some stupid device either! 8)

I really like Sony; they are a driving company and fun to watch!

Way to go Sony! I can't wait to see where this goes. I for one am not dedicated to anything, including the PPC. If something comes out that is better; I'm all over it! :D

I'm kind of torn on that one. On one hand, Sony's size and reach might be one of the best things to ever happen to Linux. On the other hand, Sony's continued desire to make things proprietary could be the single worst thing to ever happen to Linux. I can just see it now. Only the Uber MemStick will mount on a Sony Linux distro. :evil:

[riverbruce]

Neither Linux or Symbian will kill Palm IMHO. While not as knowlegable as some, my feeling is that with the installed base of users, the apparent strong commitment of PalmSource, and strong developer community, Palm's future remains solid.

Bruce

NEC MobilePRo 750C, Jornada, Ipaq, Treo 270

[rzanology]

You should have told steve to tell bill to stop playing around and get us a proper clamshell smart phone with bluetooth....and some cookies :)

[bdegroodt]

You should have told steve to tell bill to stop playing around and get us a proper clamshell smart phone with bluetooth....and some cookies :)

Yeah! :rofl:

[anthonymoody]

"Neither Linux or Symbian will kill Palm IMHO. While not as knowlegable as some, my feeling is that with the installed base of users, the apparent strong commitment of PalmSource, and strong developer community, Palm's future remains solid. "

I agree with this completely. Don't be so dismissive about Palm. A quick check at a number of online forums reveals that for every switcher to PPC (like me) there are legions of Palm fanatics who demonstrate a zeal similar to that of Mac addicts. Palm ain't goin away, at least not in that sense. Now, could Palm, ala Apple, adopt Linux or something similar as its underlying technology as a way to save itself as someone here suggested? Possibly. but either way they'll be in the hunt.

TM

[bdegroodt]

...Now, could Palm, ala Apple, adopt Linux or something similar as its underlying technology as a way to save itself as someone here suggested? Possibly. but either way they'll be in the hunt.

TM

Speaking from my Palm ignorance (Or at least lack of seeking information on them for the last 6 months.), I found out that the idea of Linux was already kicked around at Palm and it never really amounted to much. Hence the purchase of the BeOS group.

[mangochutneyman]

...Now, could Palm, ala Apple, adopt Linux or something similar as its underlying technology as a way to save itself as someone here suggested? Possibly. but either way they'll be in the hunt.

TM

Speaking from my Palm ignorance (Or at least lack of seeking information on them for the last 6 months.), I found out that the idea of Linux was already kicked around at Palm and it never really amounted to much. Hence the purchase of the BeOS group.

You are correct. Palm had previously flirted with the idea of adopting linux and also the Symbian OS as its core prior to acquiring BeOS and then developing OS 5.x. However I recall reading an interesting interview with PalmSource CEO David Nagel in which he stated that he was interested in adopting some aspects of the open source model to PalmOS:

http://www.internetnews.com/wireless/article.php/10799_2106361_2

I [Nagel] think the openness of the Internet standards has shown the power of truly open standards. And that open source model is here for good and there are enough checks and balances. We haven't talked about this much because we have not formalized this as much as we will in the future is that... I like a lot of the aspects of the open software movement, in the sense that you get as many IQ points focused on a problem as you can get. There are some problems in the open source model as it applies to a business like ours but the general idea to get more people to help you is a very good idea. One of the things is that we see is that not only will all the phones in the future -- say ten years -- have an operating system, but I think they will have an open operating system.


How this statement relates to PalmOS's position vis linux et al in the mobile wireless segment will be interestng imo..

[Andy Sjostrom]

I am not saying Palm will die. Apple Macintosh still lives and it has 5-10% (?) of the personal computer market, and that is the kind of share I believe Palm will live by too. Smartphones, PDA hybrids and mobile devices in the enterprise are the three key segments moving forward. Palm won't do very well in any of these, I believe.

I can, of course, be wrong! :wink:

[marlof]

You should have told steve to tell bill to stop playing around and get us a proper clamshell smart phone with bluetooth....and some cookies :)

Something like this Asus (http://msmobiles.com/news.php/448.html) smartphone perhaps? Don't forget it's not Microsoft that builds the phones. It's the OEMs that do, so we should have Andy meet with them. :)

[James]

Hopefully you pointed out to Steve that Microsoft's enterprise licensing absolutely SUCKS. I'm a fan of most Microsoft products, but I've always said the fatest way to kill good products is with crappy licensing, and if they don't fix things soon, they'll find other products becoming dominiant players because
1) No one will be able to figure out what licenses they need
2) If they do figure it out, they won't be able to figure out how much
actually costs
3) And if they should figure out the costs, they'll have died of a
heart attack.

[bdegroodt]

Hopefully you pointed out to Steve that Microsoft's enterprise licensing absolutely SUCKS. I'm a fan of most Microsoft products, but I've always said the fatest way to kill good products is with crappy licensing, and if they don't fix things soon, they'll find other products becoming dominiant players because
1) No one will be able to figure out what licenses they need
2) If they do figure it out, they won't be able to figure out how much
actually costs
3) And if they should figure out the costs, they'll have died of a
heart attack.

This just in...Redmond resident and PPCT member "James" has been found in the woods of Redmond nearby MSFT campus headquarters after he turned up missing on May 9th. Authorities believe the mysterious disappearance may be linked to a comment James made regarding MSFT business practices on the PPCT members forum and are unwilling to investigate further. Authorities consider the case to be closed at this time.

Resistance is futile James. Submit your check!

[pcause]

I think your article mixed 2 different issues: Java and Linux. Let me comment on each.

Java is not tied to and does not require Linux. We can have Java applications on Lnux, PPC, Symbian and more. Java provides the applications view of the environment and capabilities. The issue for Javaapplication developers is dealing with different size screens, interfacing with different mail, calendar and address book/contact systems and the like. Linux has no standard for these applications. The PPC has a single standard. This makes the developer's life easier which is importnat. Volumes of even popular apps is small and no one wants to have to spend lots of time porting and supporting different versions of these contact/calendar/task type apps.

Screen size is another issue. You have to lay out your applicaiton design carefully to really be effective on a small screen. Making an applicaiton which adapts well to varying screen sizes is just harder, especially to various small screen sizes. Scaling a UI down is a lot ore difficult then scaling it to a larger screen.

Finally there is the memory and speed of Java. The overhead for a JVM, swing, etc is still pretty hefty and is not going down. Eventually the memory will be there at a reasonable price, but Java when configured for allof the GUI capabilities present in PPC isn't small. PPC may retain an edge in terms of size of memory needed and processor power needed to run applicaitons.

On the Linux front, Compaq started the effort to get Linux on the ARM. The effort is alive and well and Sharp is now pushing sales of a handhed with Linux. The unit can be a real Linux server, running Apache and many of the other apps we associate with Linux. Sharp is focusing on the corporate market becuase it has not seen any significant consumer demand for the unit. It is the applications that are the issue. Real, friendly, end user apps just aren't there for Linux on this platform. One might argue that, other than for developers, there aren't a lot of the kind of end user toys that are avialbale for the MS platofrms, period.

I know this is changing, but there is still a big gap in terms of breadth of applicaiton type, quality, ease of use, etc.

Will Java and Linux make a dent in this market? The issue is driven by vendors seeing an opportunity and spending money to establish the market. Microsoft has made a big investment in the PPC and probably lost significant $$ through the PPC 2002. They can affiord the investment and will do so for long term gains and success. Who will buld the hardware, drive the software establish the standards, get the apps developed for the Linux / Java handheld? IBM is a logical choice, but we haven't seen them in this market in a big way yet. Sun might be a player, but they hate Linux and aren't geared to sell and deal with low cost, consumer products. Perhaps the open source community will ddive this over time, but there is still so much work to do on the server and desktop. Just think about getting Open Office scaled down to a Linux PDA. It is going to take some folks some real hard work.

Now, Microsoft can possibly get complacent. I think that they need to be much more aggressive with the developer community. The lack of free embedded visual tools for CE .Net at the same time as the general release of the Visual Studio .Net is a mistake. As I said earlier, we're still in the stage of the market where the volumes for aps are small, even on PPC. A leading app like Pocket Informant only had 150K downloads from Handago, and I'll bet the sales are only a small fraction of that 150K. In the end, the battle for the platform will be won not by winning manufacturers of hardware, but by winning the hearts and minds and pens of developers.

[kevinsb1]

Well, the truth please...We know Bill isn't into the whole PDA thing, what about Steve? What's he carrying?

I saw him speak about 6 months ago and he told a room full of executives that he doesnt carry a pocket pc, he still uses paper.

Kevin

[koriel]

I have my doubts about Linux succeeding AT ALL in the pocket marketplace. If you look around at current devices there is only the Zaurus with any kind of presence, I haven't heard of or seen a single Linux-based phone and as far as I can see Palmsoft have finally come up with an OS that will start to let licencees (sp?) produce machines that have the power of an equivalently priced Pocket PC.

They have scrapped the 16MB limit (what were they thinking of to put that in?), they are starting to support more forms of external storage and they finally have given people access to a CPU with a decent amount of power.

I think it is extremely optimistic to say that Palm is going to drop to the levels of (for example) Apple. From figures I have seen recently they are still the largest provider of PDAs out there and they seem to have finally realised that they can't sit back on past achievements in the same way that Commodore did with the Amiga.

All this is not to say that Linux doesn't have a big place in embedded systems, I just don't see it being in PDAs, more likely in set-top boxes for cable/PVRs etc.

(Just to clear up I am not a Palm fan, I use pure Pocket PC!) :lol:

[Andy Sjostrom]

Thanks for your response, pcause!

I know Java is not tied to Linux. Java is not tied to any platform. However, reality is that developer workshops that standardize on Linux have a tendency to choose to work with Java, and developer workshops that choose to work with Java have a tendency to choose Linux. My comment regarding Java is based on the fact that if, for example, Motorola chooses to build their own Linux distribution they would risk not getting any developers building any software for their devices, if it weren't for Java.

Unfortunately, I disagree with you regarding your memory and speed comment. Yes, Java, Visual Basic, .NET Compact Framework, are all badly beaten from a performance point of view when compared to native code. However, I have seen Java applications outperform .NET Compact Framework applications by too much. I appreciate the efforts the .NET Compact Framework team has done and that performance was not top priority for the first release, but I really do hope it will when moving forward.

I agree with your analysis about the current state of the market regarding applications for Linux. But if Motorola, Sony and Matsu****a etc can successfully bring Linux devices to market this will change.

The fundamental challenge Linux has in this market is coordinating open source software development, hardware innovation and commercial production.

[Andy Sjostrom]

Maybe I am too early with my analysis? I said back in 1999 that Symbian and Nokia was the bigger competitor, not Palm. I was quite alone in that statement. Now, we know it is true. So, perhaps my Linux thoughts should be conserved until 2007? :)

[qmrq]

I think it is extremely optimistic to say that Palm is going to drop to the levels of (for example) Apple. From figures I have seen recently they are still the largest provider of PDAs out there and they seem to have finally realised that they can't sit back on past achievements in the same way that Commodore did with the Amiga.


"Optimistic"?? You're saying that people would benefit if Palm failed? Competition is good for everyone involved. How fast do you think your current workstation would be if AMD hadn't of been around to beat Intel to the 1GHz plateau? Would the Pocket PC 2002 OS be as feature-rich as it is without Palm pushing it?

There's nothing wrong with being devoted to a particular platform, but be careful what you wish for.

[koriel]

I suppose at the end of the day it depends on what the competition is that you are talking about. Certainly Symbian/Nokia were always going to be the major competitor to the news smartphones, but unless they have released something in the US that hasn't been publicised over here in the UK yet, I still haven't seen an "old-style" PDA using the symbian platform since the old Psion handhelds.

[koriel]

You're saying that people would benefit if Palm failed?

Sorry, that didn't come out in context, what I meant was that in terms of "proving" that Linux is going to be the next great thing that it would be convenient for that statement to be true. Personally I don't think that it will (although it obviously might for Palm hardware, I doubt it will for PalmOS).

[kevinsb1]

I think a linux based handheld/handset will have limited appeal in the consumer market, just like today on the desktop. Linux has more of a techie following, which is good if your product is on the backend, but not so good if it’s on a client.

I believe the only thing that would hold back Windows powered handheld/handsets from dominating the market place in the next 5-10 years, would be from governmental agencies like the US DOJ or the European Union.

The releasing the dot net compact framework now is genius. They released VS 2003, an IDE that can’t create mobile applications on today’s devices. That’s kind of strange right? Well not really if you look at the time frame these devices will reach mainstream.

This is from bgates at the MDC in march.

“Now given the(that) when I talk about these scenarios being mainstream, it will be five, six years before everybody is doing these things.”

So with that said, and I believe his time frame. You will see that J2ME/Brew will be a watered down less robust platform designed for older devices, while microsoft will have a robust platform for mobile devices right when it counts.

[Kati Compton]

You forgot one important factor that will influence a Linux market...Perhaps more than any other OS, Linux has a significant and zealous following that will make the Linux PDA marketplace a reality. Something not to be under estimated.


Devil's advocate here - don't OVER estimate the effect of a zealous following either. Think of Amiga. Of course, a lot of that problem was also repeated failures by the Amiga owning companies to do anything...