Pocket PC Closes Gap On Palm OS in Japan

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.gartner.co.jp/press/pr20030328-02.html">http://www.gartner.co.jp/press/pr20030328-02.html</a><br /><br />The Pocket PC went from 16.3% marketshare in Japan to 28.3% from 2001 to 2002. Windows CE stayed relatively stable at 20.7% versus 20.1% in 2001. Palm dropped from 37.0% to 30.8%. That means Microsoft has 49.0% of the Japanese market between the Pocket PC and Windows CE devices.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030402-marketsharejapan1.gif" /><br /><b>PDA/HandheldPC Japan Market Share in 2002</b> <i>(Note: I modified the chart horizontally to fit on the screen)</i><br /><br />Proprietary operating systems are taking a hit too as they got cut in half from 26.1% to 13.4% during the same period. <br /><br />Total shipments were 680,000 units, down 21%. The next chart I created using percentages above and other unit data given.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030402-marketsharejapan2.gif" /><br /><b>Items in yellow were given, other numbers calculated</b><br /><br />Even in a 21% down market, Pocket PCs increased absolute volume 37%. The surge in "other" operating systems is primarily the shift to Linux away from proprietary systems by Sharp.

[snowlion]

i see this trend continuing...with microsoft software in 70-80% of pda within 3 years.

where did palm goof...one single moment when they decided to charge for the sdk.

microsoft seems to be making the same mistake though w/ vs.net 2003.

[billb]

well there's not enough time in the model to identify a trend yet (you need at least 3 points on a graph for that I believe). BUT, if this turns into a trend both Palm AND MS should be worried about Linux.

Personally I think this will turn into a trend and the battle on the pda will be MS and Linux (as it will probably be in the TV set-top-box). The battle on the cell phone will probably be Symbian/MS/Linux.

Personally I think Linux is great for us (as is Symbian) as it will push MS to improve reliability as well as feature set. Simply claiming better interoperability with Outlook/Exchange will not be good enough for the CIO in the long-run. Winning over the CIO will be key as that is where they will get there margin (ie not on the low end). Just look at Compaq's profit margins compared to Palm's.

Just my $.02

-Bill

[Ed Hansberry]

well there's not enough time in the model to identify a trend yet (you need at least 3 points on a graph for that I believe). BUT, if this turns into a trend both Palm AND MS should be worried about Linux.

I wish this was by OEM. I'd bet Sharp was flat to down in this time period. That said, if they switched from Proprietary to Linux that doesn't mean Linux is gaining ground on its own merits. It means one OEM switched. If Dell decided tomorrow to switch from Pocket PC to DellOS, DellOS would show a big jump but that doesn't mean Palm or MS should be worried about something that small with a narrow focus.

I've been hearing Linux will be the death of Windows and Pocket PC since Linux was loaded on an iPAQ 3600 within weeks of its launch. Now nearly three years later, I have never seen a user actually using a Linux PDA in the US at any user group, trade show or public place. I only see them in pictures on CNET.com or at a booth by someone selling a Linux device at the trade show.

[snowlion]

it all boils down to software!!!!

great hardware...great os...great prices...no software...no thanks.

if linux really wants to crack this market - someone should come out with a relatively easy + capable development system that works on existing devices. since sharp seems to be a strong proponent...they could do it...but it has to be free or at least &lt; $100.

[Fishie]

Urm this is stat is wrong.
Linux if anything is severely under represented.
Sharp allegedly sold well over 100k zauruses with opie

[Ed Hansberry]

Urm this is stat is wrong.
Linux if anything is severely under represented.
Sharp allegedly sold well over 100k zauruses with opie
Solely in Japan and by December 31?

[Fishie]

Yah, thats what they were advertising with when I was over.
Over 100k in 2k2.
This was mid january.

[GregWard]

Analysing continuous data is one of the things I do for a living - and I can't make much out of any of the "trend" data you see in this market. It always seems (understandably) to be thrown about by significant launches. Or, of course, by fans of one (or another) OS "holding back" as there's a known new version on the way and with it juicy new devices!

To make real sense you need - I think - three years worth of quarterly data (minimum) plus really good insight on what was happening (by way of launches) at any given point.

What I would be really interested in knowing is the consumer dynamics underneath - what's called a Gains/loss analysis. This would show the volume coming from new users and how many people were switching from one OS to another.

[Ed Hansberry]

Yah, thats what they were advertising with when I was over.
Over 100k in 2k2.
This was mid january.
Well, strange they would hide that info from Gartner. Some of those sales must have been to outside countries or represented devices made but not sold to end users.

[sponge]

I've never heard anyone say that Linux will be the death of PocketPC, besides the zealots.

I personally dual-boot inbetween the two, and if it weren't for a few games, I'd be in Linux 24/7. I much prefer Familiar w/ Opie over PocketPC anyday.

[mmace]

well there's not enough time in the model to identify a trend yet (you need at least 3 points on a graph for that I believe).


Unfortunately, Gartner doesn't give me quarterly data for the last two years, but here are their numbers for the last five quarters broken out by quarter and manufacturer.

All the usual caveats about these numbers apply -- they are self-reported by the manufacturers, and represent shipments into the channel rather than sales through. Also, these numbers are *so* different from the retail sales figures we get that I've never been able to reconcile them.

Greg W, you are right that there's a lot of volatility in the numbers driven by new product intros.

Mike
CCO, PalmSource

Vendor___4Q01___1Q02____2Q02_____3Q02____4Q02__Change_(%)_4Q01-4Q02
Sony_____28,500__37,000__41,000____25,000__45,500____59.6%
Sharp____36,000__60,400__17,500____27,100__33,000____-8.3%
Casio____22,100__34,800__29,600____19,700__30,200_____36.7%
NTT_D___27,850__20,000__18,500____27,000__20,000____-28.2%
Toshiba__12,000__11,500___18,000___20,800__19,600_____63.3%
Others___41,850__48,000___25,966___31,050__19,400_____-53.6%
Total____168,300_211,700__150,566__150,650__167,700____-0.4%

Market_Share______
Sony____16.9%___17.5%___27.2%___16.6%___27.1%___-
Sharp___21.4%___28.5%___11.6%___18.0%___19.7%___-
Casio___13.1%___16.4%___19.7%___13.1%___18.0%____-
NTT_D__16.5%____9.4%___12.3%___17.9%___11.9%____-
Toshiba___7.1%___5.4%___12.0%___13.8%___11.7%____-
Others___24.9%__22.7%___17.2%___20.6%___11.6%____-

[Ed Hansberry]

Thanks for the info Mike. (we really need a way to do mono-spaced fonts in here)

Is Sony pure PalmOS in Japan or do they do a mix? I know Casio does Pocket PC, Windows CE and proprietary so they are in several OS categories.

Also, you listed NTT DoCoMo. That isn't handsets is it? They sell PDA/converged devices, right?

[mmace]

Is Sony pure PalmOS in Japan or do they do a mix? I know Casio does Pocket PC, Windows CE and proprietary so they are in several OS categories.

Also, you listed NTT DoCoMo. That isn't handsets is it? They sell PDA/converged devices, right?

Sony's pure Palm OS, so far as I know. Casio is a mix, and unfortunately I don't know their % by OS in Japan (I know it in the US and Europe because we get retail reports by hardware model).

Gartner classifies some devices sold by DoCoMo as PDAs, but I'm not sure which ones.

Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

Yah, thats what they were advertising with when I was over.
Over 100k in 2k2.
This was mid january.
Well, strange they would hide that info from Gartner. Some of those sales must have been to outside countries or represented devices made but not sold to end users.
I would never had guessed the number of Zaurus' sold to be that high, but certainly in the 14 months I was in Japan (May'01 to July'02), I probably saw more Zaurus' than PPC devices overall.

[AndrewShuttleworth]

[quote="mmace"]Gartner classifies some devices sold by DoCoMo as PDAs, but I'm not sure which ones.[quote]

DoCoMo has been selling Windows CE/Pocket PC/Handheld devices for a few years now. The units currently on the market can be seen here http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/english/p_s/products/index.html (Click on Mobile Terminals). I believe some of the other units there are powered by Windows CE.

Here is what I commented on the Musea when it was first released: http://www.pocketpcjapan.com/2002_07_01_archive.html. I think there main strategy is to provide a complete PDA package to users as the units are mostly sold with their wireless CF modems. I think by providing their own device they are trying to drive down the price of PDAs to an affordable level for the average user. They will benefit from this in the long term by increased use of their data services from PDAs.

The Sigmarion is very popular as it is the only Handheld PC on the market and has a very good price point. Both the Musea and the Sigmarion can be found for under 25,000 yen or about US$200. (See http://www.kakaku.com/sku/price/003080.htm for Japanese price comparison site).

DoCoMo are also working hard on the content front with their M-Stage portal http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/p_s/mstage/ (Japanese only). Much of this content is/will also available using the current or upcoming hi-spec phones: http://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/english/com/product/pressrelease/article/20030408_13351810.html

Andrew
Pocket PC Japan www.pocketpcjapan.com

[AndrewShuttleworth]

The Sigmarion is very popular as it is the only Handheld PC on the market

Got apologize greatly as the above statement was completely untrue. I had an inkling this was wrong so decided to check. The MS site shows 5 handheld PCs available in Japan, although in reality I don't know which of these you can find on the shelves. Without a doubt though the Sigmarion would be the cheapest available. The advertised price, albeit out of stock, in a major Japanese electronics store today was less then $200.

Apologies again.

Andrew