Computerworld's 2004 Predictions

[Robert Levy]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.computerworld.com/mobiletopics/mobile/story/0,10801,88401,00.html?f=x68' target='_blank'>http://www.computerworld.com/mobiletopics/mobile/story/0,10801,88401,00.html?f=x68</a><br /><br /></div>Michael Gartenberg's latest column for Computerworld discusses his predictions for 2004. "This is my favorite time of year. I'm not talking about the holidays, the good cheer and season's greetings. I mean Prediction Season, when everyone with an opinion publishes a list of what he thinks lies ahead. In the spirit of that season, here's my 2004 Top 10 forecast."<br /><br />There are some interesting predictions here and it's well worth a read. The only one that really struck me was the top item on his list:<br /><br /><i>"Converged devices will remain a niche. Despite all the hype, converged mobile devices still won't have strong appeal in the market, and no device that attempts to integrate three or more primary functions will win over the marketplace. Users are willing to carry up to three devices. Handheld adoption will be driven by primary intended use, with secondary functions only contributing value to the product, not serving as the reason for buying it."</i><br /><br />A mass-market device can't integrate more than 2 primary functions? I don't think that's true. Sure, it will require a lot of work on usability and interface design to make a device that has a lot of features without discouraging the average consumer but it is certainly an achievable goal - and I do not believe that we are very far from getting there. I have no doubt that a device which can surf the web, send/receive email, play music, synchronize with Outlook's calendar/contacts, and make phone calls has a very strong appeal to average consumers. Add on the slew of 3rd party applications and killer pricing of some devices (MPx200 is still $0 from Amazon.com) and I find it hard to imagine that converged devices will be a niche market for much longer. I am predicting that we will see about a dozen Smartphone devices launched around the world during 2004. Combined with devices from Microsoft's competitors, we're on the verge of very something big here.<br /><br />What do you think?

[Luzerman]

"Converged devices will remain a niche. Despite all the hype, converged mobile devices still won't have strong appeal in the market, and no device that attempts to integrate three or more primary functions will win over the marketplace. Users are willing to carry up to three devices. Handheld adoption will be driven by primary intended use, with secondary functions only contributing value to the product, not serving as the reason for buying it."

I think this is an amazingly myopic view of things. It also lacks historical precidence-e.g. Clock Radio, Car Stereo, boombox, Scanner/Fax/Printers, TV/VCR/DVD players, etc.

I know many PDA users that are waiting to jump onto the PDA phone/Smartphone bandwagon once they can get all the features they want in a format that works for them. This is especially true if the device can function as a laptop replacement cause then it replaces even more bulk and weight.

If you look at the "basic" phones out there they are taking on the job of a very basic PDA already. They have calenders, web browsers, contact lists, tasks lists, can sync with computers, and can play games. These devices are already "converging". The fact is that all phones will in the near future have basic "smartphone" capabilities. The difference is in whether they will have a proprietary OS or an OS from one of the major OS providers-Symbian, Palm, Linux, or Microsoft.

I think that it won't be much more then 2-3 years before the majority of phones are sold with one of the 3-4 major OSes. I'm not sure Linux will make a big splash but there are enough Linux fanatics out there that it will survive in some form for years even if its a huge commercial failure. Palm is having problems and unless they start making money soon they won't be around for too much longer as an independant company. Sony has stated they are willing to purchase Palm and if they do Palm will live on for near forever. Sony is a company that is more then willing to do the proprietary thing and because of their size they can force it down peoples throats.

If you go back and look at what has happened in the past devices that hav e synergy will combine into something smaller and because of its converged nature better. Clock radios are a perfect example. Way back when you got a clock and you had a radio across the room. If you had a tape player you needed a component stereo system. Now you can have all of those functions integrated into one small device that sits on your lamp table.

I think there are many ways to refute Micheal Gartenberg's arguements but I'll stop here.

[Santa Fe]

I agree with Luzerman. After converting to one device I will not go back. And we all know that the early versions are mere shadows of what these devices will be in their next few generations. Hard to wait.