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View Full Version : Gartenberg: Underestimating Zune Would be a Huge Mistake

Jason Dunn
10-04-2006, 12:05 AM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/archives/2006/10/underestimating.html' target='_blank'>http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/archives/2006/10/underestimating.html</a><br /><br /></div><span style="font-style: italic;">&quot;OK, it&rsquo;s pretty clear that the first iteration of Zune is pretty lackluster given where Apple and the rest of the market is. Underestimating Zune and Microsoft, however, would be a huge mistake. It&rsquo;s not to say that this is a slam dunk for Microsoft but let&rsquo;s look at the big picture. Form Factor &ndash; The first version looks pretty lame next to an iPod (having had the chance to put them side by side) and let&rsquo;s face it, that odd D-Pad disguised as a scroll wheel was just silly (and Brown?) but that&rsquo;s not really important. Look at the Toshiba Gigagbeat S design. We&rsquo;re talking about a pretty compelling device and form factor. There&rsquo;s no reason that Microsoft couldn&rsquo;t simply put the Zune software on a comparable device. Remember, Zune is a family pf devices. Expect to see some without wireless and flash devices as well over time.&quot;<br /><span style="font-style: italic;"></span><br /></span>Michael Gartenberg from Jupiter Research shares his opinion about the Zune - it's a long-term play, and people are getting a bit too fixated on this very first player. That's understandable to some degree, but I don't think anyone (the Zune team included) expected to hit a home-run with the first Zune product out on the market. Platform plays are long hauls...<span style="font-style: italic;"></span>

10-04-2006, 12:08 AM
And I still think some people are underestimating the importance of first impressions.

Phillip Dyson
10-04-2006, 01:24 AM
I don't think MS ever tries to make a big bang when they enter a market (WinCE handhelds anyone?). I bet Xbox surpassed most of their expectations.

I agree that in the long term, that the Zune is something to be feared. By Apple et al, I mean. Not the consumers.

Even if Zune flops out the door, all the world will laugh and point. Then Zune II will creep back into town and rent a room. Zune III will burn down the village.

Pardon my analogy... :)