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Old 11-18-2009, 09:23 AM
Jason Dunn
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Default Mobius 2009: Fascinating, But Little That Can Be Shared

Hi there OS X fans! If you're coming to this site from the Fake Steve Jobs link or the Daring Fireball link, I'd encourage you to check out Apple Thoughts and join our community there.

Once again, it's Mobius time! Mobius is an invite-only event, hosted by Microsoft, where the invited guests are shown what Microsoft is doing in the mobile space. The 2009 event was held in downtown Seattle at Pravda Studios. Full disclosure: Microsoft covers our flight and hotel expenses, and keeps us well fed during the event - though there are some attendees that pay their own way to get here, and pay for their own hotel. I'm not one of those people - if a company is willing to pay for me to fly out to see what they're up to, I'll take them up on the offer. It won't change my opinion about what they're showing me.

At every Mobius event I've been to in the past, the content has been a mix of presentations that we can talk about, and some that we can't. This event so far has been radically different - the entire day was made up of presentations that we've agreed not to talk about. There was some truly eye-opening stuff; stuff that reminds me again that so many of the rumours we read about online are utterly and completely false. I think if every blog or news site went back correct the rumours they've been wrong about, they'd be too embarrassed to publish rumours...for at least a day or two. I lump myself in this group as well; hot and highly-speculative rumours are always fun to ponder, but they often bear little resemblance to reality.

Figure 2: Out of the 25 attendees, 13 of them were using OS X. The other 12 were using Windows. Interestingly, many of the Windows users were from Europe or Asia; the vast majority of the OS X users were from the USA. This is the only place on the planet where OS X has 53% market share.

Here's a list of who was in attendance, and the sites the represent:

After the day of presentations, where each attendee received a 32 GB Zune HD [Affiliate]. It was my first time seeing the platinum Zune HD in person - the colour looks better than I thought. We had an evening of dining and drinks, getting to see some of the interesting pubs in the downtown neighbourhood we're staying in. I don't drink alcohol, but I ate my weight in food that evening. There were some tasty dishes! HTC gave everyone a Touch HD2, which was an unexpected occurrence - I know that I was hoping I'd get a chance to see this Windows Mobile uber-device, but being able to leave with one was a great treat. My initial impressions? It's a large device - perhaps too large for some - but the performance and screen (great gods of pixels, the screen!) is truly fantastic.

That's about it for day one of this event. I'll update this article with further information if there's anything to share - but don't hold your breath; we've been told day two is going to be much like day one in terms of NDA content.

Mobius Day 2

More stuff we can't talk about was presented in the morning. Getting tired of reading that from me yet? Subsequent sessions were more "on the record". We had a presentation from a product manager for Office Mobile 2010, and that day the beta for Office Mobile 2010 was launching in the United States. My understanding is that it's available on Windows Marketplace for Mobile in the USA only for now, but the beta is expected to be available in other markets around the world moving forward.

Figure 3: Office Mobile 2010 for Windows Mobile 6.5 introduces SharePoint Mobile 2010.

Figure 4: HTC's presentation had to compete with the Touch HD2 we all got the previous evening. This photo was taken on the HD2.

HTC presented to us on their hardware plans for 2010 - not specific devices or spec sheets, but the kinds of technology they're planning on using in 2010. Eric Lin from HTC talked about Qualcomm chipsets coming in 2010 that move the bar from 528mhz to 800mhz, yet still maintain a battery-friendly profile while still improving performance. Lin also talked about the Snapdragon chipset that's in the HTC HD2; it's powerful, clocking in at 1024mhz, but it's also a bit on the energy-hungry site. Lin said that in 2010 Qualcomm will have a similar high-performance chipset that reigns in the power consumption.

We had an interesting discussion as a group about inductive charging; Lin didn't seem to be a big fan of the concept, citing issues around having to connect the device to the charging pad in just the right way, but inductive charging seemed to have quite a few fans in the room. Myself, it's a technology I'd like to see implemented on more phones. I think the way the Palm Pre charges - with its inductive charging pad and magnets to align it - is brilliant. All the OEMs, HTC included, have moved away from cradles, and I'm one of those people who dislikes having cables laying around on his desk. I like the idea of an inductive charging station sitting next to my monitor, making it easy for me to recharge my phone. This is an area I'd like to see HTC focus on, and it will serve them well to differentiate them from their competition in this space.

Figure 5: Analyst Michael Gartenberg presenting to the group.

To wrap up the day, Michael Gartenberg from Interpret gave us a presentation entitled "Three Screens and a Cloud: a Closer Look at the 3rd Screen". I always enjoy hearing Michael speak, because the research he brings to the presentation is a good reality check for my perception of what consumers in the market today really want. Here are my point-form notes from his presentation:

  • Global Perspective on Converged Devices - Mexico 79% wants converged device, only 29% in USA, 25% in Japan. The more developed countries are OK with having multiple devices. That seems to fly in the face of what you'd expect
  • In 2012 connectivity will be ubiquitous. I doubt it - we've been hearing that for years and years. Services will be important, but they require that always-on connectivity
  • The Kindle model was a huge breakthrough in the model of how connectivity can be integrated - there's no monthly fee for the customer, it's part of the purchase cost of the product
  • The Kindle model has significant DRM problem; limited downloads per book, multiple downloads trigger download errors
  • Technology should be used to unlock new business models, not to protect old business models
  • Pandora and Spotify can't exist much longer - they don't make enough money to pay for the content that they're using, and consumers aren't willing to pick up the slack
  • Apple hasn't moved into the subscription music business because they can't get terms that are favourable to them
  • The phone market is still up for grabs - Motorola phone use is 24% in the US. iPhone? Only 3% world-wide, HTC 1%
  • Carrier dissatisfaction? 72% of people like their carriers. It's not as awful as the digirati makes it out to be
  • Companies are changing in role - Apple is moving from the home into the workplace with work -email and productivity, while RIM is moving from the business market into the home with better Web-browsing, communication, entertainment and media
  • Consumers thought that, on average, $171 is the most appropriate price for their future handset
  • There is no market for $500 devices - no significant market at least
  • The consumer is not being driven by media centricity; it's the reliability durability of the phone (34%) unless it's an iPhone then only 20.4% care about it. 31.2% care about the shape/physical design of the phone, unless it's an iPhone then it's 14%
  • Younger generations listen to more music on their phones
  • 87% of teens own a mobile phone, but only 56% of them own MP3 players
  • Consumers show a preference for short-form video rather than full-length movies
  • 30% of consumers prefer free, advertising-supported video rather than paying
  • Where do consumers go for content? 44% use iTunes, 32% of Limewire, Kazaa, etc. 14% go to Amazon.com
  • What's driving the file sharing experience? 33% say it's because it's the easiest way to access digital songs, episodes of TV shows, and movies. 31% say it's because they can't afford to pay retail price for the entertainment
  • Back in the day, when Palm OS was as its strongest point, 2/3rds of users had never installed a third party app. "Power Users" had installed 10 apps on average. 2-3 apps per device. iPhone and iPod Touch? 2 billion apps divided by 50 million total devices...50 apps on average per device
  • Why do consumers pay for apps? 53% say because there's no free app that do they want
  • Apple dominates the digital audio player market in the US: 26% Nano, Shuffle 15%, iPod Video15%, iPod Touch 14%, Sandisk Sansa 9%, Sony Walkman 7%, Creative Zen 6%, Microsoft Zune 6%, Samsung Yepp 2%...
  • Apple controls the message, tech journalists parrot what Steve Jobs says
  • You either seize the opportunity, or cede the opportunity

Wrapping Up, and Oh Yeah, the HTC HD2

And that was it for Mobius 2009! We had a group dinner later that evening, and because the evening before HTC had provided all attendees with an HTC HD2 I spent as much time as possible testing it. Like everyone else there, I was very excited to be given the most bad-ass Windows Phone in HTCs arsenal. Unfortunately, to use this impressive hardware I'm going to have to move back to 2G speeds; we were given the European/Asian 3G version. I have a hunch it will be worth it though; the speed, fluidity, and powerful features of this Windows Phone make it a very useful device. EDGE speeds, here I come!

I'll say more about this in a future review video, but my take on the size after using it for a day is this: the device, when held in the hand, is quite comfortable. It's large, but not so wide that you get hand cramps. It's also slim enough to fit in the front pocket of my jeans without discomfort - or awkward visuals. However, if you're used to one-handed usage scenarios where you hold it in one hand and use the thumb of that hand to manipulate the device...forget about it unless you have hands/fingers larger than mine (I'm 6'2). I'm a big fan of the way I can do everything with one hand except type a message on my Blackjack II, so this is an adjustment for me to move back into the realm of two-handed device usage. I'll let you know if it's worth it.

As always, it's an honour to have been invited to Mobius. Sharing the room with my very smart peers, and hearing their insights about mobility from around the world, is quite an experience. It's equally great to hear from Microsoft about their vision and future of the platform. I've been saying that the future for Windows Mobile looked bright for several years in a row now after returning from Mobius events, but this time I'm quite optimistic that the things I've seen really will change the game when they step onto the playing field.

As Michael Gartenberg always points out, the total number of smartphones sold every year is still just a tiny fraction of the world-wide phone market. The game for market dominance in the smartphone space isn't over - it's just beginning.

Jason Dunn owns and operates Thoughts Media Inc., a company dedicated to creating the best in online communities. He enjoys photography, mobile devices, blogging, digital media content creation/editing, and pretty much all technology. He lives in Calgary, Alberta, Canada with his lovely wife, his son, and his sometimes obedient dog.

Do you enjoy using new hardware, software and accessories, then sharing your experience with others? Then join us on the Thoughts Media Review Team! We're looking for individuals who find it fun to test new gear and give their honest opinions about the experience. It's a volunteer role with some great perks. Interested? Then click here for more information.

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  #2  
Old 11-18-2009, 10:31 AM
martin_ayton
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All those Macs! I'm enjoying the irony, but somebody in Microsoft's marketing dept. should be wincing. These people are some of Microsoft's key market contacts and it looks like a large number of them prefer the Cupertino output. That's got to hurt.
 
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Old 11-18-2009, 12:28 PM
alese
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I guess you got to see the WM7 finally.
I know you can't and won't talk about that - but I really hope that they did a good job with it. Basically if WM7 is not at least as good as Windows7 is in Desktop systems compared to XP - then Microsoft will probably loose the war/race for mobile OS market dominance and WM will join Palm in Business Case studies on how lack of innovation and complacency lead to losing marketshare and mindshare and ultimately leaving the market.

As for rumors, I like rumors, they are fun and in case of WM unfortunately they usually turn out to be more or less correct (especially the bad ones). The only rumors about WM that I remember in last 2-3 years that turned out to be incorrect were when WM7 is coming out...

I'm sorry for ranting and being cynical and sarcastic, but I'm a fan of the platform and I truly wish it to be a success.
 
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:02 PM
Gare.Chicago
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I'm still hanging with my old school XV6600 from Verizon, which will be five years old in December. We're going to have cake and everything! Seriously, I just couldn't give it up because I love the screen size.

That being said.. if you need a home for the HD2, let me know!!

Gare
 
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Old 11-18-2009, 06:14 PM
Gerard
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This isn't the first time you've posted a picture from a Microsoft-hosted event, where the majority of notebooks displayed bear the Apple logo. Embarrassing indeed, and somewhat odd considering a) how well some non-Mac notebooks work, and b) that full release versions Windows 7 has been available, free, to MVPs for a while now. I'm guessing here, as I've never really used a Mac, but there must be something rather special about Apple notebooks... though it wouldn't likely be support for synching with a Zune (like the one they gave everyone there) or an HTC WM device (ditto).

So with NDAs keeping participants silenced, and the devices being handed around as freebies being somewhat trumped in visibility by an image such as this, it seems Microsoft has rather blown a publicity opportunity. More not-so-brilliant marketing from a company being walked all over by 'the other guys' lately. Put this together with Firefox numbers continuing to catch up to IE and Androids and iPhones appearing to catch up rather quickly in the mobile department, and someone had better do some clever thinking rather soon or risk losing a lot more.
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Old 11-18-2009, 07:41 PM
Lee Yuan Sheng
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Man, agree about the number of Apple notebooks. Maybe they're running Boot Camp?

Jason, hurry, publish a first impression of the HD2! I'm keen to hear what you think about it in greater detail.
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Old 11-18-2009, 10:34 PM
ucfgrad93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martin_ayton View Post
All those Macs! I'm enjoying the irony, but somebody in Microsoft's marketing dept. should be wincing. These people are some of Microsoft's key market contacts and it looks like a large number of them prefer the Cupertino output. That's got to hurt.
That was my first thought as well when I saw the picture.
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Old 11-18-2009, 10:46 PM
Sven Johannsen
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I believe Jason tweeted that the actual distribution of Mac and non-Mac notebooks was about 50-50. Seems he was sitting on the non-Mac side of the room when he too the shot . I really don't find it that surprising, as Mobius is a mobile forum, not a Microsoft mobile forum, or even an MVP forum per se. These are folks that are influential in the mobile space, not by and large, MS zealots.

BTW, if any of the participants feel that having a ZUNE HD or HTC HD2 would cause any sort of personal conflict I would e happy to afford them the opportunity to take that weight of their shoulders....and even pay for the shipping
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:01 PM
Gerard
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I think Sven gets a 'first' on that offer... nice one. I've been taking this newfangled HD2 thingy more seriously just lately as well, though still hoping the Toshiba TG02 becomes available and usable with Rogers. It'd be hard not to like a device with all those great features plus waterproofness. I fondly remember browsing forums and dealing with email and reading no small number of ebooks in the tub, thanks to my Casio EG-800. At least before the seals started popping off. But yeah, the HD2 is looking rather fine, and the responsiveness even with very heavy graphical demands is impressive coming from a long line of experiences with sluggish devices.
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Old 11-19-2009, 07:24 AM
r90a22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martin_ayton View Post
All those Macs! I'm enjoying the irony, but somebody in Microsoft's marketing dept. should be wincing. These people are some of Microsoft's key market contacts and it looks like a large number of them prefer the Cupertino output. That's got to hurt.
Just reading the fist sentence, thats the first thing that came to mind. How is that even possible running Macs, working for Microsoft. Don't they need to run Microsoft software on those things?
 
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