12-16-2008, 09:30 PM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,432
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Primary Internet Device to be Mobile Phones by 2020
"The mobile phone – now with significant computing power – [will be] the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world," the Pew Internet & American Life Project writes in a new "Future of the Internet" report. "Telephony [will be] offered under a set of universal standards and protocols accepted by most operators internationally, making for reasonably effortless movement from one part of the world to another." 
This survey isn't too far from reality. From what I hear from all of my friends that have visited Japan in the last few years, this is something that is already taking place there. My friend Brad who recently just returned from a visit to Tokyo was describing to me in great detail how this older gentleman on the train was showing him a World of Warcraft-like MMO that is only playable from your phone and not a desktop computer. Even now with the release of devices like the HTC Touch HD, Apple iPhone and T-Mobile G1, users are ditching the laptops in favor of doing their casual browsing on these mobile devices. Heck, even I can't remember the last time I pulled my laptop out when I was watching TV and wanted to do some quick browsing during a commercial break. I would go as far as saying that these experts are more than a few years off and as mobile phone technology advances we might see a drastic turn to mobile web browsing as early as 2012 - if not earlier!
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12-16-2008, 10:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,053
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2020? Well that's a really non-aggressive prediction 
Sure...11 years from now I can see a phone sized device having so much power that it could act as essential a truly portable computer that you just can dock or use where ever you are. Desktops will still be pretty pervasive I think though since for true power you'll want one. Mobile tech still lags behind desktops and probably will unless we start using an entirely new technology.
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12-16-2008, 11:25 PM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,432
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Tucker
2020? Well that's a really non-aggressive prediction
Sure...11 years from now I can see a phone sized device having so much power that it could act as essential a truly portable computer that you just can dock or use where ever you are. Desktops will still be pretty pervasive I think though since for true power you'll want one. Mobile tech still lags behind desktops and probably will unless we start using an entirely new technology. |
Heck, I think my 2012 guesstimate is a little generous. 
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12-16-2008, 11:29 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 431
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I would not have thought this to be true even a year ago, but now I agree that it may become true well before 2020. I will give credit to Apple for significantly advancing the market for internet devices, but it was moving in that direction- just not as rapidly- without them.
I just acquired the Touch HD and and love the portable internet capability that a screen of that size and quality provides. I may have also finally reached the elusive "convergence" point because of the HD's standard headphone jack. I have listened to more music on the HD in a week than all my previous cell phones with their non-standard plugs combined.
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12-17-2008, 12:02 AM
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Theorist
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 302
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Hmmm, yeah maybe but I'm skeptical. While I absolutely use my iPhone as my primary portable Internet device, it simply cannot displace my laptop on business trips, even if it was 10 times more powerful and had a battery that lasted 10 times as long. I can't see myself spending a lot of time on "websites" small enough to view on the relatively tiny screen and writing email on my iPhone is better than doing it on my cell phone but still a lot harder than my laptop. That's for internet use. I still see laptop and desktop use remaining prevalent for photo editing, video editing and non-portable gaming. As powerful as they'll be making portable devices, I can't imagine them surpassing or coming close to the power of the equivalent contemporary home PC. I don't know about you guys but I'm going the other way with my PC - BIGGER screens, more of them and lots more power. My iPhone, Pocket PC and internet-enabled cell phone all have their utility but none of them come close to taking over for my home PC or laptop.
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12-17-2008, 12:57 AM
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Swami
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 4,396
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Internet Connection
Quote:
Originally Posted by sundown
Hmmm, yeah maybe but I'm skeptical. While I absolutely use my iPhone as my primary portable Internet device, it simply cannot displace my laptop on business trips, even if it was 10 times more powerful and had a battery that lasted 10 times as long. I can't see myself spending a lot of time on "websites" small enough to view on the relatively tiny screen and writing email on my iPhone is better than doing it on my cell phone but still a lot harder than my laptop. That's for internet use.
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I agree with you, but read the original piece again carefully. It said the mobile phone would be the primary Internet connection, not the primary viewing device. With high enough upload/download speeds, maybe we could go mobile for the connection.
Like you, though, I can't see sitting at a desk browsing the Internet on a phone-sized screen and trying to type on a limited keyboard. However, if they create a good docking station or companion (like the Celio Redfly that's slightly larger and includes better support for USB devices), it might be my primary connection and mobile device. (Either that, or a foldable or virtual display and thought input mechanism.)
However, while consumers might go this way, I can't see businesses doing it. Anybody who works in an office will still likely have a regular PC with a wired or wireless LAN connection. The one exception might be if they give employees a company-owned phone, but then the workers would have to carry two phones around.
Steve
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12-17-2008, 02:55 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,183
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I've posted numerous times in various places over the years that I think we are heading towards our mobile devices being the entire computer in our lives. We'll be able to use whatever interface devices are convenient -big monitors, standard keyboard or small netbook-like interfaces like the Redfly (www.celiocorp.com) or any other kind of interface you care to dream up. The mobile device will have all the computing power and storage space we need, or just fast access to a home base, but we'll use that mobile device anywhere, with the ubiquity of a credit card, without removing it from our pockets. Proximity with interface devices (screens, keyboards) will be enough.
And don't forget cool things like these wearable 'screens'
http://www.microvision.com/wearable_displays/index.html
I am so pleased to be living in these times :-D
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12-17-2008, 06:44 AM
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Sage
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 667
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I have a sense that we're missing the main point of these numbers. When they say 'for a majority of people across the world' we have to remember that the vast majority of people in the world do not live in developed countries. In developing countries with relatively poor telephony infrastructure, cell phones have already come into places that couldn't afford to install landlines. In those places, the cell phone will also be the main conduit to the Internet, whether or not it is also the viewing device. In developed countries, people will be slower to give up their fast cable or fibre-based Internet connections in favor of slower 3G-type connections. We'll continue to expand our options and will interact with the Net on an increasingly wide variety of devices (like the current move toward netbooks for casual surfing and email, etc.), but cell phones won't replace fast wired connections anytime soon in places with the infrastructure to support the wire.
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12-17-2008, 08:19 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,432
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There was some talk not to long ago about Verizon and AT&T Wireless launching their respective LTE networks by 2012, which in theory should drastically increase our cellular data speeds. Cellular data technology will just keep getting faster as time goes on and it is not unreasonable that by 2020 that cellular networks will be amazingly fast and so widespread that we might not need to have separate data connections for home and mobile and we'll just be able to use our devices as mobile modems.
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12-17-2008, 04:31 PM
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Neophyte
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pony99CA
...Like you, though, I can't see sitting at a desk browsing the Internet on a phone-sized screen and trying to type on a limited keyboard. However, if they create a good docking station or companion (like the Celio Redfly that's slightly larger and includes better support for USB devices), it might be my primary connection and mobile device. (Either that, or a foldable or virtual display and thought input mechanism.)
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I think something to think about is that the paradigm for consuming information is changing altogether when it comes to mobility. I think it will be about where, when and what kind of information users consume based on location and convenience.
I am thinking the model for sitting at a desk or on a couch with a laptop still qualifies as "mobile" and will remain, but there will also be more specific consumption of data, in the field, on demand as it pertains to a specific task. A lot more! Furthermore, I think with regard to mobility, it is important to note that "consumption" of data will be more prevalent than "contribution" because, as noted, there are still some usability issues for rapid and easy entry of large quantities of content. But, the minute you need information about something, you will be able (and currently are able in many respects) to get that info whether on a mobile device. In the coming years it may become easier, realistic and interoperably possible to consume info on a larger device connected to a smaller device as a conduit. Not quite there with standards for that yet, and simplicity of use is key to this concept taking hold.
But back to my point and to sum up: many small, sporadic and specific mobile tasks and applications, spread over a whole lifestyle will take over the the model of stationary, "do it all your tasks or leisure consumption while you have a laptop or desktop in front of you". Know what I mean?
I wrote a little bit about this concept at the blog I write for recently. I am glad to see these kind of posts and conversations popping up more and more.
http://mobilitysite.com/2008/12/ipho...-says-rubicon/
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