11-12-2007, 04:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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PDA Market On Its Last Legs?
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS20947607
"The worldwide handheld device market posted its fifteenth consecutive quarter of decline in shipments, signaling either vendor intent to scale back production or exit from market entirely, or both. According to IDC's Worldwide Handheld QView, vendors shipped 728,894 handheld devices in 3Q07, approximately 1.5% more than the previous quarter but 39.3% less from the same quarter a year ago. "The handheld device market has been under constant pressure, with mobile phones and converged mobile devices appropriating many of the handheld's salient attributes," says Ramon T. Llamas, research analyst with IDC's Mobile Device Technology and Trends team. "Handheld product portfolios have suffered as vendors have reallocated their production resources."
Palm remained the number 1 PDA manufacturer, but it is relying on its aged Z22, TX (both launched in Oct 2005) and T-E2 (April 2005) lines. HP, the number 2 manufacturer has more updated versions and even has some new devices coming out this fall that aren't converged devices. Regardless, these sales numbers pale in comparison to devices like Palm's Treo and the myriad of devices HTC is pumping out, most of which are available through various cell phone carriers worldwide.
I suspect it won't be but a few more quarters when the non-cellular PDA will be a thing of the past, unless these features are embedded in a device that has some other primary function, like the Apple iPod Touch, a device considered an MP3 player first with some PIM functions built in.
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11-12-2007, 05:01 PM
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Oracle
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 952
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That's a darn shame. I'm on the converged bandwagon now but I look back on my PDA/mobile phone combo fondly. I would love to get a phone as small as the t68i with a 3G data contract and hook that up to my Ax again or maybe one of those gps enabled PDAs with the big screens.
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11-12-2007, 05:29 PM
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Neophyte
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2
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I've gone converged as well with an Orange SPV M700 (HTC something). I was clearing up at the weekend and found my old rx3715 and I was amazed at the size of the screen. I can't believe I've got used to something so small. If I could find a decent small phone with 3G and a fast PDA then I would deffinately go back to 2 devices.
Mark
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11-12-2007, 05:39 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 38
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Let me start by saying I have found the Pocket PCs a great tool since my first Ipaq 3600. However, isn't what we all really want is a pocketable version of Windows Vista or Mac OS? Don't we all want to run 'full' version of Word and Excel on a pocket sized device? Don't we really want to have full Photoshop CS3 support when viewing images on true VGA small screen?
So, as PPC sales shrink, shouldn't the Ultra Mobile PC market start to take off? Is the technology there, (or almost there) to be able to put Vista in my pocket??
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11-12-2007, 06:33 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 303
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I don't know why 3.5" screens almost totally vanished from the market, but hopefully the iPhone's 3.5" screen will goad HTC into bringing us a few thin-bezel bigger-screened phones.
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11-12-2007, 07:00 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,108
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tnels!
So, as PPC sales shrink, shouldn't the Ultra Mobile PC market start to take off? Is the technology there, (or almost there) to be able to put Vista in my pocket??
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No. At least not in any reasonable size, performance, or battery life.
The thing you've got to remember is that X86 processors require an order of magnitude more power than the ARM processors in PPCs, along with more storage for XP and apps, more RAM, greater screen resolution, etcetera...
I'd love full XP compatibility, but when the smallest UMPCs are 4-6 times the size of my Axim, and sporting a whopping 2-3 hour battery life along with the need for active cooling, it's not very practical. Particularly when they start at $600 and run up to $2000.
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11-12-2007, 07:59 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 98
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I think the decline in the PDA market is based on 2 things:
1) Manufacturers focusing energy and resources on their converged devices over their non-converged devices.
2) Nothing truly new being offered in the PDA (non-converged) arena for several years now.
The PDA market thrived on the continual growth and change - better screens, faster processors, more memory. There has been nothing really new offered for some time. I believe there's still a market for these devices that is evidenced by the fact that Axim x51v and HP hx47xx series devices still command a premium on eBay and sell near their original price (sometimes higher). Additionally, there was a LOT of net traffic surrounding HPs new 200 series in that it offered the first advancement in the non-converged space in some time (albeit a series of small, but significant improvements).
Convergence has left us with a series of underpowered, disappointing devices, and there is some level backlash now to move back to 2 separate devices just to regain the horsepower we lost.
I believe the end result is that the PDA market may see a slight resurgence when the 200 series is released and is likely to last beyond the next few quarters, albeit not in the numbers seen in years gone by. For a variety of reasons, there is a continuing need and market for those devices.
--Chris
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11-12-2007, 08:05 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 75
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All,
I hate to say it but I still have my HP200LX with a double speed 32MB chip. Besides it own PIM interface, which is pretty good, it sports MSDOS 4.2! It runs old versions of MS Word really well and has Lotus 123 built in. It truly is a Pocket PC rather than the WinCE wannabes. It has enormous battery life (On 2 AA batteries. No waiting for LIon to come out with a bigger battery!), in some measure, because it has no back light, no WiFi, and no radios. I can, in a pinch, hook it up to dialup and surf the web and check emails with relative ease.
For a 12 year old machine, it offers a lot of what we're now asking for. Remember the good old days before the code bloated OSs we're forced to use now? I can still use lots of the vertical market DOS based software I used then for Civil Engineering. I can even run COGO software for surveying on it!
My $0.02,
Bill
__________________
Current: 16GB 3G iPhone. 32GB iPhone 4G Gone: Can't tell ya'... My wife might find out
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11-12-2007, 09:21 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 367
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I'm still using my hx2415 and Loox 720 because I find PDAs to be far more functional for me than a converged device. Of course, my SDA is a smartphone, but I don't even use the Smartphone functions of it because they are just too limited compared to what I can do on either of my PDAs. I am VERY interested in the HP 200 series devices and definitely plan on getting one when they are finally available.
Convergence just seems to involve too many compromises, and I'm seriously considering replacing my SDA with a Plain Jane dumb phone since I only use it as a phone anyway.
The iPhone seems like a move in the right direction for convergence, but at this time, it is too limited (no 3rd party apps without hacks for now) and I'm not willing to change carriers for it (again, I know there are hacks, but not interested in hacking my phone).
For me though, for now, my PDAs serve a function that smartphones can't address and I'll keep using them as long as they're available. I have three batteries for my hx2415 and I've had it for close on to 2 years now and it's still running strong.
Don
__________________
XBox 360 S, 16GB iPhone 4S, iPod Classic 160 GB, Dell Inspiron Mini 1018; Macs: Mac Mini 2.4 GHz 6 GB RAM; Macbook 2.0 GHz 3 GB RAM; MacBook Air 11", 24" Cinema Display
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11-12-2007, 09:55 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 302
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Well I guess I'm in the minority then. I love my Dell Axim x50v and carry it lots of places. But often I leave it behind when I don't need all that functionality, like at my kids ball game. I don't want to carry a cell phone that's big and clunky. And the smart phones I've looked are too small. I don't want to hold my PDA up to my ear and I don't want to read my email on a cell phone screen. I guess that leaves me hoping my Axim x50v will last me a long time.
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