01-20-2005, 04:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Pocket Factory Predictions For 2005
http://www.pocketfactory.com/archives/2005/01/predictions_for_1.php
"The PDA market continues its onward declining trend. What�s happening to cause this trend is not just the migration from PDAs to Smartphones; but also the fact that there are few revue opportunities left in this market. Simply put; you can't make money selling handhelds. Competition and declining price expectations have forced vendors to cut margins to the bone. And the only way to make money on PDAs is to sell in massive volumes; which is never going to happen considering PDAs are a niche product category. If the handheld market had the scale and robustness of the mobile phone sector, everyone would be rolling in profit. Not so."
A bit doom and gloomish. In my opinion, PDAs were never going to take over any market in a pure PDA form. It was always about connectivity. The number one reason I purchased a Nino 320 many years ago was it had a tiny modem you could clip to the bottom.  The PDA utility is firmly entrenched in phones now and the need or usefulness of a disconnected PDA is rapidly approaching zero, but you'll be hard pressed to find any phone (carrier freebies excepted) that don't have the core PDA functionality that made the original Palm Pilot such a hit and many phones have much more. I don't know what my iMATE PDA2K is. Is it a phone? Is it a PDA? Who cares? Whatever it is, it is invaluable to me. Perhaps it is all a game in semantics. In 4 years, the PDA will be declared dead yet there won't be a single mobile device being sold that can't rival today's functionality.
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01-20-2005, 04:31 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 713
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This claim that PDAs are dying always annoys me. If PDA stands for Personal Digital Assistant then a SmartPhone is a PDA. I wish we could get over this connected/connectionless semantic and move on.
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01-20-2005, 05:00 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 45
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Honestly, how long have people been predicting the death of the PDA? In my opinion, the PDA will never die. It will only change. You cant just add a cellular raido to a PDA, and then declare PDA's dead/ or a thing of the past. A Smartphone is more PDA than it is phone in the first place. If anything, it is the basic cell phone that is dead nowadays.
Companies like HP and Dell can add cellular capabilities to PDA's all they want. But I for one want to see airtime prices go down before I could consider singing up for a plan. I had a cell phone 4 years ago, but could not afford the monthy bill in addition to my land line. I recently wanted to purchase a cell again, but upon looking, found that the rates are the same they were 4 years ago! (I am Canadian, but perhaps prices have declined in the States?)
Sorry for the rant, but until monthy cell rates decline, a cellular raido on a PDA, will just be an unused feature for me.
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01-20-2005, 05:11 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 31
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I'm more optimist then you Ed. I believe that the PDA, and more correctly, HandHeld Computer, will progress to become the future form factor and main computer. The clunky, old desktop box will fade away, and mobility (with connectivity ofcourse) will be the driving force of change. If you haven't noticed yet, people don't really enjoy being chained to their desk.
The VGA screens and growing accessories for the PDA market only expand its potential. And I don't see businesses moving away from it.
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01-20-2005, 05:27 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Traditional PDAs are dead, end of discussion. The market is commoditized, and few companies are investing in this space anymore. It surprises me that there any actually thinks otherwise. Mobile technology from this point on will focus on wireless. There will always be room for products like the Axim X50v, but that market will be small. The mobile device market from here on out is going to become segmented. No one form factor will win out.
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01-20-2005, 05:34 PM
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Magi
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,341
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Re: Pocket Factory Predictions For 2005
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
that don't have the core PDA functionality that made the original Palm Pilot such a hit
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Wait!....Wait!....Wait! Stop the presses! Yes that was actually Ed Hansberry who used these exact words..... "made the original Palm Pilot such a hit"
:jawdrop:
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01-20-2005, 05:38 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 601
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I don't figure I lost with my PDA...it was just the best thing at the time. I've been using a PDA in some fashion for around 6 years. I figure thats a pretty good run in an emerging market. I think I might see some "smartphones" that could fill the bill for me this year. Just the next evolution.
Question: How do you define smartphone...does that include converged devices that are running the "full up" version of Windows Mobile versus just the smartphone variant? Several allude to it here...this seems more about semantics than anything else.
The real problem for me is that my choices for a converged device or smartphone or super PDA or whatever you want to call it are tied to my cell phone provider. Its a pain in the a$$ and severely limits my ability to move to a new device.
__________________
CTSLICK - ROCK ON
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01-20-2005, 05:45 PM
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Magi
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 2,341
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CTSLICK
Question: How do you define smartphone...does that include converged devices that are running the "full up" version of Windows Mobile versus just the smartphone variant? Several allude to it here...this seems more about semantics than anything else.
The real problem for me is that my choices for a converged device or smartphone or super PDA or whatever you want to call it are tied to my cell phone provider. Its a pain in the a$$ and severely limits my ability to move to a new device.
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Generally speaking from a hardware standpoint Smartphones do NOT have a touch screen, and the screens are smaller. Because of that Windows Mobile differs somewhat on the two devices.
A converged device does not have to tie you to a single carrier if you use a GSM device. You can usually buy them unlocked and put in your SIM card of choice.
Dave
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01-20-2005, 06:58 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 118
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pdas in the future (and present)
My take on the PDA market is not from a Organizer point of view or a media player, or a connected device... The fact is the PPC is ALL of these, and I fits in my hand. A laptop is great and is a desktop replacement, however my PPC is much easier to lug around :wink: . With all the software choices out there, I can support windows boxes, Unix boxes, listen to music and read books, among other things right from the PPC.
For a support person like myself, the connected PDA is invaluable, and I don't even have a cellular connection (only Wifi)! The catch to all this is I have the ability to be always connected. Not such a good thing, but it really is when someone needs help.
I am a real fan of the technology and hope that the big players continue to innovate, and keep the pricing competitive, otherwise that might spell the end of the technology - price, not functionality.
AXE
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01-20-2005, 06:59 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Paragon
Generally speaking from a hardware standpoint Smartphones do NOT have a touch screen, and the screens are smaller. Because of that Windows Mobile differs somewhat on the two devices.
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Right...I get that...you get that...most of the people here get that...but I do not believe all of the pundits and analyst are playing by these rules when the start bantering about the smarthphone market. I think they regularly mixed the two when they talk statistics, marketshare and predictions. So I guess my question should have been more directed at the author...how was he defining this relative to his commentary. 
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Paragon
A converged device does not have to tie you to a single carrier if you use a GSM device. You can usually buy them unlocked and put in your SIM card of choice.
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IF you use GSM which is not a very good option in my part of the country. So I am stuck with Sprint for right now. And unlocked converged devices are still prohibitively expensive for me. But I continue to hold out hope that the stars will align and I'll get a shot at something good.
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