06-24-2004, 11:00 PM
|
|
Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
|
|
Is It RIP the PDA?
http://www.vnunet.com/comment/1156199
"Falling sales have led some to conclude that PDAs will fade away, but there are good reasons to think otherwise. When Sony announced that it was halting production of its Cli� handhelds across Europe and the US, it sparked a debate about the entire future of the handheld PDA format. The argument was that if a manufacturing giant like Sony has discovered that it can't make money from selling PDAs, then who could?"
Well, perhaps someone that understand the market. :wink: Now having shed its money losing operating system division PalmSource, PalmOne made a nice profit this past quarter.
Most current PDA makers, especially those with the Windows Mobile operating system, are combining enticing consumer features like media playback and cameras while supporting features companies look for like VPN, Terminal Services and even server synchronization. Features like wireless access, integrated phones, versatile email clients and basic PIM management appeal to all PDA buyers. I think walking that fine line will keep the PDA market in business for several more years at least. No one can tell what will happen beyond that in any market.
|
| |
|
|
|
06-24-2004, 11:06 PM
|
|
Pontificator
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,097
|
|
Bluetooth and the PDA dead?
Ed didn't like BT, but I'm sure he'll be mad about this PDA thing :wink:
__________________
Please see www.grlt.com "Tech with a twist of lime!"
The Midlands Hybrid Club MidlandsHybrid.com
Current: Kacey's Wing, T-mo Wing Past: GCM_T, T-Mobile MDA |
| |
|
|
|
06-24-2004, 11:41 PM
|
|
Swami
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,303
|
|
I think the form factor alone will keep the PDA market going. Until we get rollable/foldable LEDs or laser retinal scanners or projected holographic displays, I think that screens from 3.6 to 4 inches will remain the sweet spot for size. I.e. small enough to be truly portable but large enough to watch video, use spreadsheets etc.
Just keep those cameras to smart phones alone and equip all PDAs with Bluetooth, so they can sync to BT mobile phones with whatever fastest mobile technology that comes along. :wink:
|
| |
|
|
|
06-24-2004, 11:42 PM
|
|
Pupil
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 49
|
|
I agree with this market observation:
Quote:
|
One possible explanation for the different picture here and across the pond is that the US, which usually leads Europe in most trends, may have reached saturation point first, so most people who are likely to use a PDA now already own one.
|
I agree with the article's UPC statement
Quote:
|
The ability to run standard Windows apps could attract many buyers that are put off by the size and weight of a full laptop, but would previously have had to settle for a PDA. Of course, it remains to be seen how long the batteries would last on such devices, and there is the matter of Windows XP itself, which is plagued with security flaws and takes an interminably long time to boot up - far longer than the instant-on of a Pocket PC, anyway.
|
If the UPC market can deliver [almost] instant access, decent battery life, and the reality of the notebook replacement in the PDA form factor, I think it will be a success.
The UPC market will attract tablet buyers, PDA buyers, and power users that want mobility and wireless access any where.
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 12:06 AM
|
|
Pupil
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 19
|
|
Well, I'm waiting for the time when I can truly run "standard Windows apps" on any pocket sized device. PocketWord and Co. leave a bit to be desired on my iPaq :wink:
I don't think Sony's exit has anything to to with PocketPC vs. Palm. Market saturation and increased competition from both the pocketpc and Palm itself are IMHO the real factors. Palm has served up ****e products until recently, sparked by increased innovation from Sony and HP/Compaq. I think they have responded well, for that matter. Grabbing Handspring will doubtlessly help round out their product portfolio.
Recently, Sony has been more of a proof-of-concept company in the pda biz than a creator of value based systems.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by gry
I agree with the article's UPC statement
Quote:
|
The ability to run standard Windows apps could attract many buyers that are put off by the size and weight of a full laptop, but would previously have had to settle for a PDA. Of course, it remains to be seen how long the batteries would last on such devices, and there is the matter of Windows XP itself, which is plagued with security flaws and takes an interminably long time to boot up - far longer than the instant-on of a Pocket PC, anyway.
|
If the UPC market can deliver [almost] instant access, decent battery life, and the reality of the notebook replacement in the PDA form factor, I think it will be a success.
The UPC market will attract tablet buyers, PDA buyers, and power users that want mobility and wireless access any where. |
I think there is also the issue of resolving ease of use, which I think the PPC and Palm have got covered, with the inherent complexities of full-blown software packages such as Word or Excel. Not to mention squeezing that information onto a 3.5" screen. The most illustrative example of this is the lame-O attempts to add calendars etc onto a phone. The screen is just too small, the interface for adding information is just too clunky, and it becomes a frustrating experience just to get it to work. Not to mention you look like the uber-geek tapping away on your phone's keypad.
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 12:50 AM
|
|
Mystic
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,639
|
|
I think we are going to see that conventional PDA fade into the realms of history. Fear not though, there are clearly two types of replacement device, both of which are going to meet peoples needs better.
The first is obviously the smartphone. Some devices like the SE900 and Treo 600 do a nice job of combining a decent phone with usable PDA features, especially PIM ones. I'm sure development in this area is going to continue and there will be plenty of interesting product launches in the next couple of years.
The second sector is the super portable laptop replacement. Devices such as the OQO, the Flipstart and the Zaurus C series are examples of these products that can run real applications in a tiny size. (OK I admit I'm stretching it a bit for the Zaurus, but there are a lot of desktop apps that have been compiled to run pretty well on it. There will also be a new C960 version at some point, that is rumored to have dual wireless, mini harddrive and 256MB of RAM. Well, I can wish for it anyway).
I think the basic electronic organiser idea is just about dead. Even with the simplicity of Palms PIM apps, it's still better to use a DayTimer for people that just want to keep appointments and things.
There will also be a third more specialised sector, the commercial one. This will continue to be dominated by Symbol - at least in the US. Expect to see them launch less industrial wireless devices to compete with HP in applications such as sales force automation. Also, Palm is dead in the industrial market. Whether we like the idea or not, Windows is the only game in town. :cry:
__________________
Cheers!
David
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 02:17 AM
|
|
Theorist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 305
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dh
I think we are going to see that conventional PDA fade into the realms of history.
|
I don't buy it. The FACT of the matter is that sales of PPC handhelds have been growing at 30 - 40% per year. The reason that you see the screeching negative headlines on PDA's and that pda sales are flat or dead is nothing more than sensationalist journalism, IMO, and is because Palm has been declining...
nothing more, nothing less.
Once upon a time the numbers for retail PPC buyers compared to corporate PPC buyers was about a 80% ( retail ) to 20% ( corporate ) ratio. In the last year and a half its become almost a a 50-50 proposition.
While the retail user count may be a bit on the wane, its quite the contrary for corporate deployments. I believe corporate deployments are at an early stage of a more broad corporate deployment of PPC handhelds for productivity reasons, for keeping their mobile workforce in touch for productivity enhancements and at moving order entry at the point of a customer where you can shortcut the time it takes to get information back to the corporate headquarters. Theres huge numbers in productivity benefits by using PPC handhelds. The medical field as an example is starting to use data collection and analysis on so many things that involve handhelds.
This is not an organizer thing, aka Palm organizers. Corporate deployment counts on the applications that can only be found on PPC devices to get the job done at a very decent ROI.
The actual numbers ( WM OS PPC growth of 30-40% year over year ) tell the real story of how PPC's are evolving as the tool of choice for companies going forward to cut costs and get work done.
PDA's dead? Palm organizers may be a bit sick, but PPC's?
Hogwash, IMO. The numbers don't lie. :?
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 02:34 AM
|
|
Theorist
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 267
|
|
I agree PDA's are dying. It's going to be replaced by PPCPE devices. Now if only WM 2003SE can go into a Treo 600............ :drinking:
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 02:52 AM
|
|
Mystic
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,639
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Stik
While the retail user count may be a bit on the wane, its quite the contrary for corporate deployments. I believe corporate deployments are at an early stage of a more broad corporate deployment of PPC handhelds for productivity reasons, for keeping their mobile workforce in touch for productivity enhancements and at moving order entry at the point of a customer where you can shortcut the time it takes to get information back to the corporate headquarters. Theres huge numbers in productivity benefits by using PPC handhelds. The medical field as an example is starting to use data collection and analysis on so many things that involve handhelds.
|
But if you read what I posted, I mentioned the third sector of commercial users for handhelds. I agree with you, this is a growth area, indeed it had better be because my company sells data collection systems. 
Most of the devices sold in this area however, are not the same old PPCs that consumers are buying. Much more specialised, more robust and more expensive - well over $2,000 for a wireless HHP or Symbol unit. I don't think of these as PDAs, in fact they're not. They are mobile wireless devices with all the goodies for a special job. Many run CE.NET which isn't found on the average PDA.
The medical applications you mention are interesting because a lot of regular Ipaqs and Palms are starting to be used here. The FDA barcoding mandate is going to mean more of these will need to have scanners built in as well.
As I said, the old PDA for simple PIM use is certainly on the way out as the thread title suggests. I don't care because the new types of handhelds are going to be better
This is no PDA!
__________________
Cheers!
David
|
| |
|
|
|
06-25-2004, 04:49 AM
|
|
Pupil
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 14
|
|
Sony's exit was a shortsighted move. The PDA dead? That's too early to call. Sure, there are more mobile phone users than PDA users - that we already now. And manufacturers are putting in PDA functions into phones but that's only because most consumers regard PDA as "an organizer" for address book and appointment book.
Sony tried the hardest to recast the PDA as more than just a PIM and very nearly did a darn good job but dropped out for only reasons known to them.
Just when the PDA is reaching the sweet spot between cost, price and form-factor some manufacturers and pundits dismiss it. That is viewing it very shortsightedly.
I have a TR1A - pretty small enough not to bitch about but since getting the TH55, I can leave it behind and do most of what I need to do without it. I had a P800 too and from my personal experience, the screen and speed was way too slow to function as a proper PDA. Great as a PIM but no PDA.
It is interesting to note that the OQOs and FlipStarts of the world are coming into play. It won't work - for now - because it's too expensive, too large and no "instant-on". Definitely a niche product and considering how powerful some PDAs are, interfacing my primary device to my mobile device is not an issue. And the OQO is not powerful enough to replace my primary machine.
Until those smartphones reach the sweet spot of what a PDA have been hammering on for the past 8 years, I still think there's a market for the PDA. What PDA manufacturers need to do now is build-in those interfaces to one's primary machine - handling email and documents natively - so that it really is an extension of one's primary device. I guess PocketPC have that advantage and is winning that slowly.
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Linear Mode
