06-04-2004, 01:00 PM
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Magi
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,186
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Brighthand: There Can Be Only One (Of Each)
Steve Bush has written an interesting article that predicts the death of everyone in the PDA market but HP and palmOne:
"Twenty years ago a small group of engineers at Apple began dreaming up the next revolutionary device. It wasn't the first time they'd embarked on a mission such as that. They'd done it nearly a decade before with the Macintosh, a device that made it easy for the common man to harness the power of a computer. [So the Macintosh came out in 1974?  -PL] But Mac sales were quickly drying up, thanks in part to competition from a host of new PCs running a competing operating system from Microsoft called Windows, and they needed something new, something futuristic to eventually replace it as Apple's breadwinner. Something no one had considered. What they came up with was the Newton. Although Casio and Tandy would eventually beat it to market with a device of their own, called the Zoomer, Apple, and its Newton, is credited with pioneering the PDA industry. [Actually, the Zoomer was created by Jeff Hawkins of Palm Computing, and it was manufactured by Casio and distributed by Tandy. -PL]
As the Newton floundered, a much less ambitious device from another California-based company, tiny Palm Computing, Inc., was flourishing. Less-expensive and with less features than the Newton, the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history." [Sorry to keep jumping in, but I don't think this is true - Walkman WM-2 in 1981, anyone? (Reference) -PL]"
Steve goes on to say that palmOne and HP will be the only PDA manufacturers left standing. I'm sorry, but I don't buy it. Dell is mentioned in passing, but is discounted as a niche player in direct corporate sales. Steve thinks that the future belongs to smart phones, communication devices and single-purpose devices.
Personally, I see no reason why new and existing manufacturers can't create increasingly converged devices based on the existing operating systems. Just because palmOne has been reduced to one major hardware manufacturer is no reason to assume that the same fate will apply to Microsoft-based devices. Dell should not be discounted, and neither should Motorola, ASUS or Toshiba, much less the lower volume devices hitting the markets from Mitac, Audiovox, and possibly even Benq. Where's the competing hardware from palmOne? What do you think? :mrgreen:
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06-04-2004, 01:26 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 332
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Companies like Dell will want to have PDAs in their portfolio, if they want to continue selling to corporate customers. And companies that cater to the Japanese and other Asian markets will continue to innovate, because their is a consumer demand for tiny pieces of technology. If the 'killer app' every shows it's face, then the demand among American consumers will spike....but I don't see HP being the only maker of PPCs. Especially since their prices are much higher than others.
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06-04-2004, 01:39 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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Nah, I don't think so. The handheld industry, like every other industry, thrives on competition. The only way HP would become the sole PPC maker would be if customers stopped buying the other brands. I see people with PPCs all the time and not all of them are iPAQs. :roll:
And how can you say that the world will be dominated by smartphones and the like? Pocket PC manufacturers aren't going to let other devices take them over. There will be new innovations in the PPC market to make them more appealing.
I fully believe that in five years, PPCs won't look anything like they do today and will be able to do way more than they currently can, but they'll still be Pocket PCs (and Palms  ).
And they'll still be produced by a number of different companies.
[this has been Ryan's Report on the Future. Tune in next time for Ryan's two cents on the Past] :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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06-04-2004, 02:02 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 418
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Uhuh. This isn't the first unlikely prediction made by brighthand. But let's be honest... the sensationalistic stories at brighthand (and ppcthoughts) generally get the most readership/discussion. Sad but true.
__________________
HP 48s, 200lx, USR Pilot 1k, Palm 3, V, M100, Handspring Visor, Sony N610c, T615c, T655c, HP iPAQ 1910, 2215, Palm T3, HP hx4705, Dell X50v, HP rx1955, Apple iPhone, 3G, 3GS, 4, Samsung Galaxy Nexus
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06-04-2004, 02:19 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 155
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I�m sure that some of the manufacturers will fall by the wayside, if only due to the high cost of innovating. However, I think Dell is here to stay. I deal with lots of Pocket PC owners and I�m seeing a lot of Dell devices out there, right alongside of the HP models.
Now that a chip is available that will allow the hardware manufacturers to add Wireless-G, I think that will be one of the next pushes for new models.
As long as Microsoft continues to roll out new features in the OS, and makes that available to all hardware manufacturers, we should continue to see new and interesting devices rolling out to consumers. As for the business market, I think HP has a huge lead, from what I�ve seen.
No matter whether you�re buying a device as a consumer or as an IT worker, people like to stay with a brand they know and trust. If you buy Toshiba notebooks, you might give first consideration to Toshiba Pocket PC�s. Likewise with Dell, HP and (one day maybe) Gateway. If you�re comfortable with the manufacturer, why wouldn�t you give their model a closer look? That kind of thinking will keep at least a few of the manufacturers in the Pocket PC camp.
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06-04-2004, 02:24 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deslock
the sensationalistic stories at brighthand (and ppcthoughts) generally get the most readership/discussion. Sad but true.
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Yeah, you're right there. But, really, PPCT doesn't come up with the sensationalistic stories...they just report on what others are saying. Which I think is great!
They keep us up to date on all the news, which is exactly what they should be doing.
And, sensationalistic or not, I like reading what others predict about the future. We all have our opinions about the future and, whether or not it could ever come to pass, reading what others think is very interesting. If nothing else, it makes you think in a new direction.
[and there's Ryan's Report on the Present. This could become a daily column] :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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06-04-2004, 02:31 PM
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Contributing Editor
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 123
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The Dell argument is inherently flawed...
The argument that is made for Dell leaving the market is exactly why Dell *will* remain. Dell generates a lot of revenue from direct corporate sales. As long as HP (which does the same) remains in the Windows Mobile market and leverages Windows Mobile devices as part of "bundled" corporate sales, Dell will remain in the market in order to compete directly. I actually believe that the actions of both HP and Toshiba (yes, Toshiba does the same leveraging) were significant in "tipping the scales" at Dell to move into the market in the first place. Remember, the introduction of the Axim occurred at around the same time as Dell's decision to move into the printer market (and cut out HP, eliminating a common sales obstacle).
BTW - I tend to also believe that the whole direct corporate sales angle is what has made the rumors of Toshiba leaving the market to be just that - rumors.
DonS
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Don SorcinelliMicrosoft MVP, Windows Mobile DevicesEditor-In-Chief, BostonPocketPC.com
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06-04-2004, 03:28 PM
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Neophyte
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 2
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I apologize, but there is a mis-quote, it is
Quote:
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the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history.
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The actual article makes no such claim, it skirts that claim by saying '...one of the fatest selling...'
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06-04-2004, 03:42 PM
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Swami
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by astro_turf
I apologize, but there is a mis-quote, it is
Quote:
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the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history.
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The actual article makes no such claim, it skirts that claim by saying '...one of the fatest selling...' |
Hi Astro_Truf - welcome and good to see you. 8)
I visited Brighthand just now - and this IS the quote:
Quote:
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the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history
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I'm not sure where you got your quote from, but the article Pat quoted is very clear about that.
Personally I reckon that there is more than enough room in this PDA pond for more than 2. The more the merrier.
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06-04-2004, 03:56 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 481
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I think where this all comes from is Steve of Brighthand observing with interest that the Palm OS market has been reduced to one major player; we've all found this interesting to ponder. As Brighthand strives to give fair share to all PDA platforms, he could not pursue the thought process we here have had, namely that this is a sign of Palm OS continuing it's slide into insignificance. So eliminating that explanation of where this is taking the PDA market, he is suggesting that this is the eventual course of each platform and picked HP as the winner in the end (which is not too much of a stretch once you confine your thinking to this course of events). This of course eliminates a lot of factors that differentiate the Palm OS and WM/PPC OS markets, not the least of which are the fundamental differences in the OS itself and the [previously mentioned here] tie-ins with the major PC manufacturers.
I find it a lot easier to see each of a lot of Pocket PC vendors slicing up the PDA market, with Palm's share ranking in 4th or 5th place in a year or two. Consumers (in America, at least) seem to always favor having two suppliers (case in point, why does Apple computer still exist?), but make it tough for those in 3rd place and beyond. Steve might be drawing from this principle, but I think it is misapplied in this case. HP will likely be the leading player for the foreseeable future, but Toshiba and Dell will battle for second place, and all the other PocketPCs and PalmOne will have a tough time.
And I think PalmOS now having only one major player is a unique situation. Sony leaving the market (remember also, this is only US; maybe Europe too?) had more to do with forces within Sony itself, not marketplace forces that insist there is only one player. Had Sony not been such a hard driver, there would have been a third place player strong enough to rise up and claim second place. And if they weren't currently weak internally, they could have slowed product introductions and picked the more profitable areas to focus on.
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