03-31-2004, 02:00 PM
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Swami
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4,303
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"�Think of Hardware as Being Free" - Bill Gates
Yahoo News report Bill Gates as saying: "Ten years out, in terms of actual hardware costs you can almost think of hardware as being free -- I'm not saying it will be absolutely free -- but in terms of the power of the servers, the power of the network will not be a limiting factor," I know he�s talking about networked computers and high speed access, but that�s still quite a statement to make! Can I have some of this almost free hardware then Bill? :wink:
"The world's largest software maker is betting that advances in hardware and computing will make it possible for computers to interact with people via speech and that computers which can recognize handwriting will become as ubiquitous as Microsoft's Windows operating system, which runs on more than 90 percent of the world's personal computers." Well, when you spend $6.8 billion on research and development per year like Microsoft do, then you jolly well ought to see some improvements in computing! Are we nearly there yet��..? :?
Bill also said: "Many of the holy grails of computing that have been worked on over the last 30 years will be solved within this 10-year period, with speech being in every device and having a device that's like a tablet that you just carry around." Hmmm, just like a tablet or just like a Pocket PC? I�m not convinced about voice recognition for PPCs � or tablets or desktops for that matter. It�s hard to think where you would use voice recognition apart from the quiet and privacy of your own house/car/space. Can you imagine an open plan office full of people interacting with their computers by voice? 8O
I like the fact that MS are clearly thinking that the future will involve us carrying our devises round with us, so we�re ahead of the curve here. :way to go: Where do you guys see us going with this kind of thing?
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03-31-2004, 03:16 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 98
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I think Bill views the future in software and services - hence his remarks. I think he's partially right.
For individual consumers you buy Internet access through an ISP so you have no hardware costs and the costs of personal computing devices (compared to their power) is decreasing for the average consumer. This is not the case for corporate computing environments, however.
Whereas the costs of buying a server are reducing, the costs of providing infrastructure are not. In fact, they are increasing. Nowadays you must have not only an Ethernet infrastructure, but one that also provides power-over-Ethernet. That costs more. You must start considering/providing wireless access in addition to your basic wired structures. That costs more. There are some costs savings in the combined voice/data infrastructures, but they are generally overshadowed by increasing costs of higher security levels and the need for more equipemnt and more powerful equipment necessary to provide the multiple access layers (wireless AND wired, voice AND data).
Servers are getting cheaper, but you generally have to buy more of them - an application server isn't enough - now you need a web front end, and a server to handle the Java cose, and a security server, and now you have to deliver redundancy and fail-over.
The reduced hardware costs per box are being supplanted by a need for more boxes. So wheres we're moving toward a software/services focus, our overall hardware spending isn't and won't decrease anytime soon.
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03-31-2004, 03:28 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 439
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Re: ��Think of Hardware as Being Free� - Bill Gates
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Originally Posted by Jonathon Watkins
Can you imagine an open plan office full of people interacting with their computers by voice? 8O
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I've heard this concern before, but I think if it's done right, an office full of people interacting by voice with their computer wouldn't be any different than an office full of people interacting with their phone or other people by voice.
I have MS Voice Command for my PPC and other than being light on possible features, its voice recognition is quite good. Especially with no training required. I think this is one area that MS has done some pretty good work. A few more advances in this kind of voice recognition and I can see me talking to my computer Star Trek style!
Robb
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03-31-2004, 03:59 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 95
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Re: “…Think of Hardware as Being Free” - Bill Gates
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Originally Posted by Robb Bates
I've heard this concern before, but I think if it's done right, an office full of people interacting by voice with their computer wouldn't be any different than an office full of people interacting with their phone or other people by voice.
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That's what I need, my computer asking me to repeat myself because it couldn't hear me over the racket.
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03-31-2004, 04:08 PM
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5000+ Posts? I Should OWN This Site!
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 5,133
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With respect to hardware being "free"... We're moving in that direction. Not that the hardware doesn't actually cost anything, but I think it'll get to the point where hardware is free with purchase of software.
I mean, with $600 desktops, what % of that price is for the OS and Office?
The HW:SW cost ratio keeps decreasing.
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03-31-2004, 04:43 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,264
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Exactly, 6 years ago the average PC was probably $2500. Best Buy has had the low end e-machine for as low as $340 with a monitor and printer. Instead of being the equivilant of a few months mortgage payments, it is now a one month car payment (and a kind of cheap one at that). Who knows how long the trend can continue, but I can remember reading when PC's hit the $1000 mark that most thought they just could not go any lower.
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03-31-2004, 04:55 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 439
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Re: “…Think of Hardware as Being Free” - Bill Gates
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Originally Posted by Talldog
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Originally Posted by Robb Bates
I've heard this concern before, but I think if it's done right, an office full of people interacting by voice with their computer wouldn't be any different than an office full of people interacting with their phone or other people by voice.
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That's what I need, my computer asking me to repeat myself because it couldn't hear me over the racket.
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hehe, just wait until you start arguing with your computer, and it wins! 8O
Seriously though, I am actually quite impressed at the ability of MS Voice Command to understand me with lots of background noise. They've got a good product here. They just have to give it more features.
Robb
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03-31-2004, 04:58 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,264
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Re: “…Think of Hardware as Being Free” - Bill Gates
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Originally Posted by Talldog
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Originally Posted by Robb Bates
I've heard this concern before, but I think if it's done right, an office full of people interacting by voice with their computer wouldn't be any different than an office full of people interacting with their phone or other people by voice.
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That's what I need, my computer asking me to repeat myself because it couldn't hear me over the racket.
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I read an article a few weeks ago about rearch into prespeach. Basically, it allowed you to just mouth the words you were wanting to say and it detected and read the muscle movements to create the words. This might be the solution to this problem.
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03-31-2004, 05:11 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 23
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Re: ��Think of Hardware as Being Free� - Bill Gates
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Originally Posted by Jonathon Watkins
Yahoo News report Bill Gates as saying: �Ten years out, in terms of actual hardware costs you can almost think of hardware as being free -- I'm not saying it will be absolutely free -- but in terms of the power of the servers, the power of the network will not be a limiting factor," I know he�s talking about networked computers and high speed access, but that�s still quite a statement to make! Can I have some of this almost free hardware then Bill? :wink:
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Maybe he's saying that he plans on jacking the price of Windows up so high that the cost of a $2500 server will seem free in comparison.
Remember back a while ago when he said, "640k should be more than enough for anybody"
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03-31-2004, 05:12 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 92
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kati Compton
With respect to hardware being "free"... We're moving in that direction. Not that the hardware doesn't actually cost anything, but I think it'll get to the point where hardware is free with purchase of software.
I mean, with $600 desktops, what % of that price is for the OS and Office?
The HW:SW cost ratio keeps decreasing.
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That's a really good point - I spent way too much on my PPC stuff.
So, perhaps we're reaching the point where a company like HP or Toshiba should be selling us a box, without an OS, and then we, each of us, go to the Microsoft well for our OS and updates. I am pretty much done with the current approach of "Device of the Month" marketing.
IMHO, the hardware/software price ratio is not low enough for mobile computing to be pervasive. I hate chasing the technology - that's why I think my next mobile computer will be a TabletPC.
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