10-02-2003, 10:37 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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"The Death of the Handheld Computer" Says Rob Enderle
Ah, here's an article that should stir up some interesting discussion. Here's what Rob has to say:
"Whatever happened to the handheld computer market? A segment that seemed to have limitless potential just a few years ago now seems to be flirting with irrelevance. Right now, there are too many vendors in the space. Dell is driving the margins out of the segment; laptop computer prices are dropping to within a few hundred dollars of high-priced handhelds; and converged devices (cell phone/handheld computer) have generally proven to be a joke on those who bought them.
The choice seems clear: Either the market for these devices needs to expand, or some vendors will have to exit. Some (like Philips) have left, and Handspring was recently acquired by PalmOne. Three major mistakes stunted handheld computing's growth. The first is standards (or the lack thereof); the second, excessive focus on technology instead of user needs; and the third, a dearth of marketing focused on the segment itself, not the devices."
He goes on to talk about the worst issues causing problems in the adoption rate of handheld computers. What do you think? Is he right?
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10-02-2003, 10:58 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 258
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Just like weathermen, I don't believe market analysts one bit. There's still plenty of room for the handheld market. 
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10-02-2003, 11:00 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 117
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Although it pains me to say this, I just might have to agree with some of the author's comments. (Someone, please tell me I'm out to lunch).
1. Laptops are becoming incredibly affordable. (Didn't they outsell desktops in one of the more recent fiscal quarters)? Economy of scale = even lower prices? (I know they're a different market, etc, etc...but one can't help feeling that they'll take a bite out of PDA sales, given the much smaller price differentials).
2. Notwithstanding HP's excellent efforts to come out with new products, there doesn't seem to be anything "new enough" with the PocketPC platform.
(Same old thing. When are we going to get upgraded screen resolutions?
128MB or 256MB RAM?) Is it me, or does it seem like things are slowing down, especially from an "excitement point of view"?
3. When I look at a magazine like Pen Computing, they seem to be dropping PocketPC's altogether (and they used to have a pretty pro-PocketPC slant).
Just my 2 cents.
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10-02-2003, 11:08 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 258
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LarDude
When are we going to get upgraded screen resolutions?
128MB or 256MB RAM?
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The upcoming Toshiba e805 will sport a 640x480 screen and I believe another Toshiba model and the iPaq 5550 series have 128MB RAM. :wink: Things aren't moving THAT slow!
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10-02-2003, 11:23 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 555
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I want to bring up this question -- has there been really revolutionary developments on the laptop scene that isn't seen in the PPC world as well?
Laptops are getting smaller -- so are PPC's
Laptops are getting more memory -- so are PPC's
Laptops are getting better graphics processors -- so are PPC's
Granted that this article was probably written before the Tapwave was released, which is a radical departure from the PDA form factor (probably a larger departure than the Sony U101, probably the most "radical" improvements recently, being so small and all). Even so -- if the market analyst said that the market is dead since there's no innovation's, someone should smack him with a tapwave, then let him play a few games on it.
And his example of a dying market is Philips leaving the PDA world? That's nearly ten years ago! A more appropriate comparison would be Casio. It shows how much research the analyst actually did.
Honestly -- I think this is just bitter-talk by people that's trying to compare the initial boom of a new industry with current trends. You have to remember one thing: when a new industry starts there's always a burst of increase, which levels off eventually as saturation is reached. Subsequent growth is much slower, and it is unreasonable to try to compare this slower growth with the initial burst of new developments.
That said, I think everyone would agree with me when I say that if the tech market dies (or suffers very badly), the PDA market is the first to fall.
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10-02-2003, 11:25 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,202
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I think Rob's been reading PPC Thoughts. Look back at my comments in the "Waffle House" thread. He's saying the same thing as I am about the lack of standard connectors, memory cards, etc.
I agree with a lot of what he's saying here, but don't necessarily think of it as killing the market, rather just limiting it. The relative success of the low end units shows there is a market, it's just a price point below what most manufacturers can make money at. However, if someone can deliver an "instant-on" handheld size PC running Windows XP at $600 then he is right in that Palm and PPC are dead. However, the actual handheld market would grow tremendously as a result of such an invention. I venture to say we will see such a device in most of our lifetimes.
Whydidnt
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10-02-2003, 11:36 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 117
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by easylife
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LarDude
When are we going to get upgraded screen resolutions?
128MB or 256MB RAM?
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The upcoming Toshiba e805 will sport a 640x480 screen and I believe another Toshiba model and the iPaq 5550 series have 128MB RAM. :wink: Things aren't moving THAT slow! |
Yes, I remember seeing those articles on this site and getting somewhat excited about it. But then one hears all these caveats that they may only be rumours, and that if they are more than rumours, there is: the time to market, whether or not Toshiba will offer the product in North America, does the device have built-in WiFi or not, etc, etc...and then it sounds like the product is a million years away or might just die on the drawing board. (Yes, I'm impatient).
As far as 128MB RAM is concerned, c'mon really, that's should not have even been yesterday's news, it should have been the day before yesterday's news. (How many years has Times2Tech -- or whatever their correct name is -- been offering 128MB RAM upgrades??). As far as I'm concerned, 128MB should have been standard when the iPAQ 5400's came out, we should be pushing the 256MB envelope by now. (If games are going to be one of the areas that the PocketPC's are supposed to show off its strength, how is it going to do that on a piddly 64MB, or worst 48MB because of the dredded NAND memory "cheapout").
Finally, all the compactflash and SD gadgets seemed to have really slowed down lately (OK, so there are a few more GPS CF cards). Where are all the new CF and SD toys?
Whoa!....sorry, that almost turned into a rant :wink:
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10-02-2003, 11:43 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 116
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I don't care how low laptop prices go -- until I can slip one into my pocket, I don't see how they are going to drive the handheld out of its niche...
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10-03-2003, 12:06 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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I've followed Ron's work for a very long time and one thing you have to keep in mind is the fact that much of what is written by "analysts" is weaved with truth and embellished a bit for publicity's sake. In fact, a quick trip over to Ron's site will tell you
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Rob has been ranked #1 since 1995 in press coverage world wide
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It's not to take much away from his work, but it's an important filter to apply to the article.
Fundamentally, I think much of what he writes is similar to the thoughts a lot of us have here.
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10-03-2003, 12:47 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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I'm afraid there may be a great deal of truth in Enderle's assertions. Handheld sales are continuing to whither. According to NPD Techworld, sales for the back to school month of August dropped by an astonishing 30%. A market segment can't experience a drop that drastic without something being seriously wrong. And analysts are forecasting an equally atrocious Q4. Things are not looking good for the PDA sector. I myself have noticed a frightening trend, it's getting harder and harder to steer new users towards PDAs. I would be willing to bet money that the majority of consumer handheld purchases are going to second time+ buyers. The PDA industry is maturing, but one could also argue it's stagnating. You can almost feel an impending sense of doom. :|
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