09-10-2003, 08:00 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Handhelds Will Still Sell Well
"Analysts ABI research have said that the PDA market will continue to grow, countering recent studies predicting a decline as smart phones become more popular. Wirelessly connectivity and new features such as satellite location will save the day. In fact, wireless handhelds, which ABI dubs 'connected PDAs', will comprise over half the market in 2006, said ABI.
"The emergence of converged devices, such as the connected PDA, may be the latest relief the industry has been seeking," said analyst Kenil Vora in the report. To date, connected PDAs have not been popular because of limitations in technology. But new devices like the upcoming Treo 600 will help give a much-needed boost to sales of wireless handhelds, said the report."
As per usual, every analyst and market reporting company has different predictions. :roll: One thing is clear: whether it's integrated Bluetooth, WiFi, or GSM/CDMA, the death of the non-wireless PDA is coming within the next few years. I think most of these analysts are quibbling over the semantics of device types.
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09-10-2003, 08:17 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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I'm not so sure. In my experience it is getting more and more difficult to "recruit" new users to handhelds. I keep running into a brick wall of indifference. "Why do I need a PDA?"...."I already have a cell phone, why would I want to carry two devices?"...."PDAs are too expensive. Come see me when they get to $50". The one device that no one needs convincing to buy is a mobile phone. I really believe that in that long term, Smartphones will become the dominant mobile platform. There will always be a market for dedicated PDAs. Just how big that market will be remains open to debate.
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09-10-2003, 08:22 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 258
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Re: Handhelds Will Still Sell Well
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Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
As per usual, every analyst and market reporting company has different predictions. :roll: One thing is clear: whether it's integrated Bluetooth, WiFi, or GSM/CDMA, the death of the non-wireless PDA is coming within the next few years. I think most of these analysts are quibbling over the semantics of device types.
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Hmm... I guess this is a pretty good time for me to complain that since I live outside the coverage area of both GSM and CDMA networks, a PDA-Phone is pretty much useless to me. As for Bluetooth and WiFi, with the use of my new laptop I can't think of anything I would use the BT/WiFi connectivity for. :? However, I still use my PDA for keeping track of basic PIM stuff (and MP3, and games... :mrgreen: ) so I always have it with me - unconnected, and I suspect that other individuals are in positions similar to mine. I guess what I'm trying to say is that there is still a hot market for unconnected PDAs. Take the Palm Zire vs. The HP 5xxx series - Palm sold waaaaay more Zires than HP sold 5xxx series PDAs even though the Zire offered no connectivity and the 5xxx series offers BT/WiFi. :way to go:
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09-10-2003, 08:36 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 25
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Re: Handhelds Will Still Sell Well
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Originally Posted by easylife
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Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
As per usual, every analyst and market reporting company has different predictions. :roll: One thing is clear: whether it's integrated Bluetooth, WiFi, or GSM/CDMA, the death of the non-wireless PDA is coming within the next few years. I think most of these analysts are quibbling over the semantics of device types.
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Hmm... I guess this is a pretty good time for me to complain that since I live outside the coverage area of both GSM and CDMA networks, a PDA-Phone is pretty much useless to me. As for Bluetooth and WiFi, with the use of my new laptop I can't think of anything I would use the BT/WiFi connectivity for. :? However, I still use my PDA for keeping track of basic PIM stuff (and MP3, and games... :mrgreen: ) so I always have it with me - unconnected, and I suspect that other individuals are in positions similar to mine. I guess what I'm trying to say is that there is still a hot market for unconnected PDAs. Take the Palm Zire vs. The HP 5xxx series - Palm sold waaaaay more Zires than HP sold 5xxx series PDAs even though the Zire offered no connectivity and the 5xxx series offers BT/WiFi. :way to go: |
I think the compelling factor in that comparison is the price point of the two respectively. The Zire is as entry level as it gets, the 5xxx is for the power user.
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If it's difficult I'll do it right away.
Impossible takes a lil' longer.
Miracles by appointment only.
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09-10-2003, 08:58 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,734
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As chips become more powerful, even in mobile phones, it becomes trivial to add more intelligent functions, e.g. calenders and games, on the devices. In 5 years time, all phones will be smart phones. It will just be that most people will not know how to access the advance functions. It will be like VCR's. We call all watch a movie (make a call) but alot of people never learn to set the recorder (advanced functions) because its more complicated, or people are not interested. Just because some-one has no use for the function, does not mean it wont still be there on the device.
The main difference between Phone editions and smart phones will be the size of the screen. I dont however feel this should automatically create a new device. It should just be a phone with a large screen (e.g Nokia 7650) What OS it runs is obviously important to us, but only the future can sort that out.
I short, in a few years wireless connectivity will be as trivial to add as stereo sound, and even if you have no use for it, it will still be there. And the POS people will still only have mono sound :lol:
Surur
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09-10-2003, 09:21 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 147
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ActiveSync's death knoll
If PDAs lose their wires, Microsoft will have to fix the ActiveSync over BlueTooth problem of dropping connection during long downloads.
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Jonathan Rogers
Email
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09-10-2003, 09:54 PM
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 6,878
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Re: ActiveSync's death knoll
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Originally Posted by JonathanWardRogers
If PDAs lose their wires, Microsoft will have to fix the ActiveSync over BlueTooth problem of dropping connection during long downloads.
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Who's to say it would be ActiveSync over Bluetooth???
The one thing they will have to address regardless (and this goes for Smartphones as well as Phone Edition Pocket PC's), will be the ability to create a partnership without physically connecting the device to the computer...
Steve
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"My eyes are rolling back in my head so far I can see my grey matter bubbling and frothing from reading this thread....bleh." JD
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09-10-2003, 10:05 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 47
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One of the reasons I can see handhelds holding out for a while against smartphones is because the carrier industry in the U.S. is still caught up in forcing customers to their network. Look at all of the trouble with application locks on the SmartPhone platform. I'll be very surprised if we see any of the major carriers release a phone in the next year with 802.11 capabilities. Not just because of battery concerns but mostly because they want to limit any off-network data transfers. I really don't want a carrier having that kind of control of my data use. Several carriers are even blocking public wap sites that allow free downloading of ringtones and backgrounds in order to push people back to their pay sites.
Also carriers tend to be very conservative with new hardware releases. How long has the Treo 600 been in carrier testing and we still don't see it? How about getting any carrier to approve an MS SmartPhone? I really don't want to see testing cycles that long every time I want a new PDA.
I love my SPV but for now it's an addition to my PDA, not a replacement. I'm sure it will happen eventually but probably not as fast as some analysts are predicting.
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09-11-2003, 12:25 AM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 338
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Re: Handhelds Will Still Sell Well
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Originally Posted by easylife
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Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
As per usual, every analyst and market reporting company has different predictions. :roll: One thing is clear: whether it's integrated Bluetooth, WiFi, or GSM/CDMA, the death of the non-wireless PDA is coming within the next few years. I think most of these analysts are quibbling over the semantics of device types.
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Hmm... I guess this is a pretty good time for me to complain that since I live outside the coverage area of both GSM and CDMA networks, a PDA-Phone is pretty much useless to me. |
I don't want to sound like I'm attacking you personally, but the reality is the market dynamics are big enough that the people that the OEMs are targeting live in the metropolitan areas that do have the GSM and CDMA coverages, not the "little guys" out quite a ways from a population center that don't have connectivity. (And trust me, even living in the Puget Sound "high tech" area... it took a long time before our Tel Co modernized and the Cable co. decided HighSpeed internet was needed....
Jason is right, however, the days of an "unconnected" Pocket PC are nearly over... Until I owned my CDMA 1xRTT card and iPaq 5455 with 802.11 and bluetooth I probably would have disagreed, but since "cutting the cord" the useability of the device has probably increased 10 fold, and that's now.. with wireless just beginning to take-off. 10 years from now God only knows what the computing landscape will be like. Yikes!!! (and HOORAY!!!!)
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