07-16-2003, 05:05 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Research Firm Says Wi-Fi Will Go Bye-Bye...and Bluetooth too!
"According to West Technology Research Solutions (WTRS), ultrawideband (UWB) will eventually beat out both the current Wi-Fi wireless networking standard and Bluetooth, while the open standard ZigBee protocol will enable every system in the house to talk to each other.
If those bold predictions from the Mountain View, Calif.-based research firm come true, then they promise that standards battles for wireless networking will continue into the next decade. The firm said Ultrawideband, or UWB, would eventually eclipse the popular 802.11b, or Wi-Fi, networking protocol that is spreading in use across the country, helped by rollouts of wireless Internet access in Starbucks coffee houses and McDonald's Restaurants."
Quite a bold statement! I'm not sure how much I agree with this - I'm sure that eventually something will replace WiFi and Bluetooth, but with adoption rates skyrocketing for 802.11b, once you get that technology entrenched, it's very hard to replace it with something better, unless the advantages of why it's better are very obvious. DVDs gained massive ground on VCRs in a short period of time, because the advantages were clear to consumer: better picture, better sound, smaller physical storage, etc. With WiFi though, 11 Mbps is quite fast for most scenarios, and the average home can be covered by one access point.
If anything I predict a slow phase-in of UWB, like we've seen with 802.11g - products will support both, and eventually drop the 802.11b. This process could easily take over a decade though - which is what they're predicting. I found it very interesting that they also predicted that UWB could replace CDMA/GSM technologies. Read the article for more information - I'd like to hear what you think about this.
UWB certainly seems to be a technology we should keep our eyes on for the future!
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07-16-2003, 05:34 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,468
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As I recall there are problems with the way UWB works (interference with mobile phones, military frequencies etc.) that will lead to it being banned or at least severely restricted in some parts of the world...
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07-16-2003, 05:36 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 338
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My two cents worth: I think that UWB will take it's rightful place, but I agree with Jason... with 802.11b, g and ? taking hold so quickly, I have a hard time believing that it will be wiped out.
I remember 10 years ago when people proclaimed the floppy was soon going to die. It's still a feature on most new computers!
Long live 802.11(insert alpha of your choice) !!!!
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07-16-2003, 05:45 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 164
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802.11 has been around for several (6+) years, with 802.11b not too much younger. And 802.11b is just catching on, where I don't see 802.11g catching at all.
Corporate use has a big part of these technologies, and anytime you need range, g doesn't cut the mustard.
Anyway, I'm wondering if 10 years is enough... how many competitive standards will come up in the meantime? Predicting something in this field 10 years out is just plain hogwash, a poor attempt to sell articles.
*Phil
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07-16-2003, 05:45 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 396
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802.11b may not be the best technology there is, but as it's established and adequate for most uses I can't see it going anywhere soon. I can't see it being toppled until something like 802.16 takes hold.
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07-16-2003, 06:03 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 57
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Just a little background on the standards activity: the IEEE 802.15.3a task group is developing the 15.3a PHY using UWB to provide higher data rates (> 100 Mb/s) than the recently approved 802.15.3 WPAN stanadard. The FCC granted 7.5GHz of spectrum for UWB (3.1-10.6 GHz).
The primary application for the 802.15.3 WPAN (now being promoted by the WiMedia alliance) is cable replacement for multimedia devices. WiMedia transceivers will be embedded in next generation HDTVs, DVD players, PVRs, Receivers, etc so you can connect them all together without cables. Given that the PCs are also taking a place in the home entertainment space, we will see PC cards and adapters also. It is not far fetched to predict that the same home WPAN will also be used to distribute Internet access within the home - hence the WLAN replacement prediction.
It will take other technologies like UWB relays, mesh, etc before UWB can replace WLAN in hotspots and perhaps even enterprise networks. May happen.
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07-16-2003, 06:05 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 98
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First - floppies have been gone on Macintosh computers for a few years now and I NEVER use the floppy on my PC and haven't for at least the past 2-3 years. CD and DVD recordables have replaced them (and Zip to a lesser extent). Bigger-cheaper-faster.
Second - I wish I had a dime for every time one of these "experts" got on a platform and said "I have the next greatest thing and it will replace all your differing technologies and make what you have all work together." Sorry - never comes to pass that way. It always comes down to driver / connectors / gateways / profiles, etc.
The 802.11b/g technologies have taken hold because they are based on ethernet and ethernet drivers which have been around for a long time and are widely available and cheap to license. BT has had a harder time because it's based on pseudo-proprietary profiles and inconsistent standards (that aren't really standards) and is harder to implement, but as it standardizes a bit it's catching on more and more.
Anything that's going to come down the road has to be widely available and easily adoptable and or cheap to adopt or it won't happen. DVD replaced VHS because the technology bacame widely available and very cheap. Floppy use has shrunk (and is disappearing) because of easily available and cheap CD recording.
--Chris
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07-16-2003, 06:36 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 105
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My prediciton
My prediciton is that WiFi and bluetooth won't be replaced until internet connections hit a major overhaul (i.e. DSL will become slow compared to something new) and this will cause a need for better and more efficent networking...Also, a greater range improvement (i.e. instead of 300 feet you get 300 yards) or something...
Just shooting in the wind,
Jake-
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07-16-2003, 06:56 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,398
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Garage door opener spectrum?
UWB will use the "garage door" spectrum. :wink: Somehow I don't want to run my network on "leftover" bandwidth, something that could be slowed or messed with by my neighbor's UWB toaster, or something that only has a range of a few yards.
What about security?
My wi-fi range is better than my garage door opener range, how about you?
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07-16-2003, 07:01 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 10
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UWB
The question is... when will UWB be integrated in PocketPC? Ha ha.
I don't see any major differentiator between UWB and 802.11. An interesting question would be if 802.11a/g came out AFTER UWB, would they say it's the end of UWB? 
One thing to note is when UWB comes out, the AP/client's won't be $30 like it is for 802.11. I mean, why pay $300+ for equipment that does almost the same thing??
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Linear Mode
