05-23-2003, 03:00 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Is A Wi-Fi Bubble Building?
Here's an interesting article on the realities of Wi-Fi, especially startups that are embracing the technology as a core sale product (such as hotspots). You and I may be rooting for the technology, but has profit models been established yet at the mass quantities needed for a real success as a public network?
"...more and more analysts worry that euphoria over the one segment that has shown some life during the most prolonged tech downturn in recent memory could lead to overexpansion and an imbalance of supply vs. demand -- creating the type of capacity surplus that has shattered the telecom-equipment business over the past three years. One of the biggest worriers is Andrew Cole, an analyst with wireless consultancy Adventis in Boston. 'Wi-Fi is overrated and headed for a fall,' he declares.
The situation isn't that simple. Wi-Fi is really two markets -- one consumer, the other corporate. And at the moment, they seem to be headed for divergent paths -- one difficult, the other more promising."
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05-23-2003, 04:00 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 40
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Is Intel to blame?
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05-23-2003, 04:17 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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achille, some good points and I've edited my post slightly -- the article calls into question whether or not new startups will survive peddling the technology, more than anything else. Wi-Fi as communication hardware is well-entrenched, well-productized, etc.
Oh, and please don't assume I necessarily agree with the article's premise. However, I do think the proliferation of "hotspots" will not succeed unless a new fee/roaming structure is put in place. People aren't going to subscribe to 10 different hotspots. I think there is a danger in those ventures if not done properly.
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05-23-2003, 04:22 AM
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Sage
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 658
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Janak Parekh
Oh, and please don't assume I necessarily agree with the article's premise. However, I do think the proliferation of "hotspots" will not succeed unless a new fee/roaming structure is put in place. People aren't going to subscribe to 10 different hotspots. I think there is a danger in those ventures if not done properly.
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Not to mention reasonably or much more affordable priced wifi hotspot internet access.
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05-23-2003, 04:43 AM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 111
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It may not be an entirely bad thing if there is a wifi bubble. The railway bubble of the late 19th century in the US created a huge network of rail lines that could then be purchased cheaply once most of the builders went out of business and the resulting low-cost continental rail service created whole new markets like the Sears catalogue...
Sooo, if there is a big overbuild, a collapse and someone savvy picks up all the capacity cheaply, a widespread and inexpensive service could result. Of course I wouldn't want to work for any of the companies on the losing side of the equation...
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05-23-2003, 09:06 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 41
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Hyped WiFi Market.
It's an interesting article imho. People should not react as if it's an anti wifi article?. The article is related to companies who work in this hyped wifi market with tough competition, low margins, falling prices (good for consumers) and finding good business hotspot model(s). A lot of people still see 802.11/wifi as the one-size-fits-all-technology which it's not: WiFi is still high power and not mobile just to name something. Products and applications are developed where WiFi isn't/wasn't developed for in the first place and where other technologies are more interesting. This happens in a hyped market where WiFi seems to be the golden word!?
There will be more acquirings and a big shakeout is not to stop imho. But this could turn out to be a positive thing for consumers overtime....
jmho
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05-23-2003, 12:46 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rubberdemon
Sooo, if there is a big overbuild, a collapse and someone savvy picks up all the capacity cheaply, a widespread and inexpensive service could result. Of course I wouldn't want to work for any of the companies on the losing side of the equation...
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People predicted this after Metricom went bankrupt, but the Richochet network is still only active in a handful of markets, compared to what it was.
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05-23-2003, 12:52 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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Like you have to be some sort of pundit to announce this. It's a formula for journalists.
Recipe:
1-Hot up and coming product/service/technology
1-Dash of pessimism
Flavor to taste with examples of failures
Serve hot
I could write the same thing today about MEMS, hybrid automobiles, and if the cure for cancer came out tomorrow, I bet I could open up the fish wrap in the morning and find some "journalist" with an opinion about the failure of such a cure.
Of course consolidation and failures will happen. It happens in every market. But while some are failing, there are a heap of others making a mint on WiFi right now and from what I can tell, the foreseeable future.
Now, about this revised 802.11G spec. What the :?: :evil:
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05-23-2003, 03:28 PM
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Theorist
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdegroodt
Like you have to be some sort of pundit to announce this. It's a formula for journalists.
Recipe:
1-Hot up and coming product/service/technology
1-Dash of pessimism
Flavor to taste with examples of failures
Serve hot
I could write the same thing today about MEMS, hybrid automobiles, and if the cure for cancer came out tomorrow, I bet I could open up the fish wrap in the morning and find some "journalist" with an opinion about the failure of such a cure.
Of course consolidation and failures will happen. It happens in every market. But while some are failing, there are a heap of others making a mint on WiFi right now and from what I can tell, the foreseeable future.
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The problem of course is that a growing chorus of journalistic "there'll be tears before bedtime" exercises can lead to an anti-bubble, such as we currently have in relation to the Internet (where investors assume that all online ventures are bad investments).
Those groups who have something to gain from seeing WiFi not succeed (such as, arguably, telcos. And possibly people who don't like coffee) will naturally seize on anything that lets them spread FUD among potential users and investors and make sure it is brought to as wide an audience as possible (they would be stupid not to...actually in the case of the Internet this has worked well for large corporate employers as well, because they can basically say to their employees "There is no escape. Mwahahahaha!!!") 0X
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05-23-2003, 05:11 PM
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Linear Mode
