01-28-2003, 06:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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2002 Market Share Numbers Start to Trickle Out
There are a number of market share reports coming out. Yahoo is reporting that global PDA shipments are down 9% over all in 2002 compared to 2001, and it is across the board. Enterprise shipments are there with 30% of the market but this is not yet up to the levels expected by 2002. The slump in the tech sector is hurting all technology spending and PDAs are being pulled down with everything else. Consumers makeup the other 70%.
Globally, Palm is still #1 in shipments with 4.4 million units shipped, 12.2% below their 5.1M in 2001. HP is #2 with 1.6M units, 27.2% below the 2.2M shipped in 2001. HP's numbers for both 2001 and 2002 represent a combined HP/Compaq. Sony is #3 with 1.3M shipments. Palm's market share was maintained by the Zire, a $99 Palm OS 4 device that made up one third of Palm's shipments since its release in October of 2002.
The Pocket PC overall though is gaining ground, thanks to smaller players like Toshiba, which has jumped to #5 world wide. PalmOS has 55% of the market and Pocket PC has 26% globally. Think about that. For every two Palm's sold, one Pocket PC is sold.  We are getting there folks! Note too that none of these numbers are materially affected by Dell, which didn't get into the PDA market with the Axim until late November and were (and still are) plagued with backorders. They sold 51,000 Axims in December. Lets see what they do when they get the X5 ramped up to meet demand and when they round out their product line with the rumored X3 and X7.
I hope that 2002 proves to be a valuable lesson to HP. Riding high in 2001 on the success of the iPAQ, they released a slightly updated 3800 that included an integrated SD slot. The model did well for the first few quarters. HP then released an even less slightly updated 3900 at what many considered to be an insanely high priced $599-$759, depending on the features. It wasn't until December that you could get the radically different 1910 and a more reasonably priced 5400 that cost less than the high end 3900 and added WiFi and biometrics.
Here is hoping to a better PDA market overall in 2003. Todd Kort, a Gartner analyst, is projecting a 10-15% growth in the PDA market in 2003.
There is more info in a News.com. Canalys also released some information specific to the European market. Thanks to all the little people that sent these links in.  Too many to name. Keep those links coming!
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01-28-2003, 06:31 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 110
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Wow; I think that some of these figures are too optimistic! I have no problem hoping that the market keeps moving; but I realistically think that this will be a year where things will kind of keep level for sales. I am a business owner and myself and a lot of my associates have seen a definate down trend in consumer spending. It's not that consumers aren't spending, it's a matter of where they are spending their money, and I don't see it going to high tech toys. Joe Public is making due with that he has in that area and spending his dollars on other items. If the market does go up however; I would think that it would happen late in the year. There are a lot of potential political events going on right now that are pressing the minds of the people.
Of course we are hoping for the best! :wink:
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01-28-2003, 06:42 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 156
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Quote:
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The Pocket PC overall though is gaining ground, thanks to smaller players like Toshiba, which has jumped to #5 world wide.
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I'm not surprised by this. Their Pocket PC form factor is similar in size, thickness and weight to the Palm series. I know that it was one of the top reasons why I chose Toshiba when I was switching from Palm to Pocket PC.
MLO
__________________
If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention
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01-28-2003, 07:02 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 157
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Quote:
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HP is #2 with $1.6M units, 27.2% below the 2.2M shipped in 2001.
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Ed,
Did you mean to say 1.6 million dollars or 1.6 million units?
__________________
Charles Pickrell
Sacramento Mobiole Computing SIG
A chapter of the NorCal Mobile Computing SIG
www.mobilecomputingsig.com |
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01-28-2003, 07:34 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 20
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The contrary view on market share...
This should spark some debate.
It's actually been a good year for Palm OS:
Palm Powered Share Increases in Second Half of 2002
Palm Powered mobile computing devices continue to lead in U.S. retail, enterprise, and smartphones, and are gaining share in the European market,
according to industry analysts
SUNNYVALE, Calif., January 27, 2002 -- PalmSource, Inc. today announced that Palm Powered handhelds and smartphones strengthened their position in the retail market during the second half of 2002, according to sales figures just released in the United States and Europe. In European retail sales, Palm Powered handhelds � those that use the Palm operating system - had strong share gains from a year ago, while in the U.S., Palm Powered handhelds maintained share despite increased competition. Palm Powered handhelds also gained share among enterprise resellers, and manufacturers of Palm Powered smartphones were three of the top six smartphone companies worldwide. PalmSource is the provider of the world�s most popular operating system for handhelds and smart phones, and the Palm OS subsidiary of Palm, Inc.
Gaining Share in Europe
According to the October-November 2002 sales report from GfK Marketing Services, retail share in Europe of Palm Powered systems rose as PalmSource�s licensees released new products and shipped Palm OS 5, the newest version of the Palm operating system. In Germany, Palm Powered share in October-November increased eight points from a year ago, from 50 percent to 58 percent. In France, Palm Powered share increased 12 points, from 52 percent to 64 percent. In the United Kingdom, Palm Powered share increased by eight points, from 42 percent to 50 percent.
U.S. Retail Share Strong and Stable
During the 2002 holiday season, Palm Powered products faced stiffer competition than ever before as licensees of rival operating systems introduced lower-priced handheld devices and increased their promotional spending. Despite the increased competition, Palm Powered handhelds maintained their historically strong share position in the United States. According to weekly retail sales figures compiled by NPD Intelect in December 2002, Palm Powered devices maintained around 80 percent share, roughly the same share range they held during the December 2001 holiday period.
Leading Share in U.S. Enterprise Resellers
Palm Powered share is also strong among U.S. commercial resellers, companies that sell handhelds direct to corporations, according to NPD Intelect. During the third quarter of 2002, the most recent information available, Palm Powered handhelds had 72.9 percent share, up from 56.7 percent in the same quarter the year before.
Leader in U.S. Smart Phones
According to International Data Corporation�s tracking of converged mobile devices � smart phones that combine handheld and mobile phone capabilities - Palm Powered smart phones had 89 percent share in the US during the third quarter of 2002, the most recent data available. Worldwide, three of the top six smart phone vendors were Palm Powered � Handspring, Kyocera, and Samsung.
�Users continue to prefer Palm Powered products for value, usability, reliability and the enormous range of third party applications, content and accessories that are available,� said David Nagel, president and CEO of PalmSource. �This sales data, and the fact that over 25 million Palm Powered devices have now been sold, underlines the ever-increasing popularity of the Palm operating system.
The second-half, 2002 share gains were driven by innovative new mobile computing products from licensees such as:
� Alphasmart, with its Dana, a durable and low-priced laptop computer replacement for students;
� Handspring, with the Treo 300, the first Palm Powered communicator to include a bright color screen with a full thumb keyboard;
� Kyocera, with its tiny-but-powerful 5135 Palm Powered flip-phone;
� Palm, Inc.�s hardware division, with its sophisticated new Tungsten T and Tungsten W business products and low-cost Zire for entry-level handheld users;
� Samsung, with its sleek i330 smart phone that combines Web browsing, handheld, and phone functions; and
� Sony, with its Clie NX 70v, which includes a thumb keyboard and video camera.
Additional new Palm Powered products that will ship in the first half of 2003 include Fossil's Wrist PDA with Palm OS, Garmin's iQue 3600 GPS-enabled handheld, the Legend Pam168 Chinese-language handheld, and the Sony Clie NZ90 with a two megapixel camera and the highest resolution, feature-rich multimedia capabilities ever in a handheld. Other new devices are in development by Group Sense Limited and HuneTec. The new products, along with the existing lineup of award-winning devices from Acer, HandEra and Symbol, greatly increase the selection of features available to Palm Powered customers. Combined with more than 16,000 Palm OS software programs, the largest selection of software for any handheld, these devices take Palm OS far beyond its roots as a personal information management tool, helping to make people more in touch, productive and organized in their business and personal lives.
About PalmSource
PalmSource is the company behind Palm OS, the world�s most popular operating system for handhelds and smart phones. Licensed by industry leaders -- including Acer, AlphaSmart, ARM, ATI, Fossil, Garmin, GSL, Handera, Handspring, HuneTec, Intel, Kyocera, Legend, MediaQ, Motorola, Palm, Samsung, Sony, Symbol, Texas Instruments --Palm OS has been shipped on more than 25 million handhelds and smart phones, and given rise to a huge community of users, enterprises, developers and manufacturers, who together make up the Palm Economy. PalmSource�s new headquarters are located at 1240 Crossman Ave. in Sunnyvale, Calif. PalmSource is a subsidiary of Palm, Inc. (PALM). More information about PalmSource, Inc., is available at www.palmsource.com. Information about Palm, Inc. is available at www.palm.com/aboutpalm.
# # #
PalmSource and Palm OS are registered trademarks and Palm Powered is a trademark of PalmSource, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Palm, Inc.
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01-28-2003, 07:48 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 68
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Ah, let's examine the facts here. Palm was down 12.2% and HP was down 27%. Therefore, PocketPC is winning! Yippee! As an Axim owner, I am becoming concerned that the PocketPC calculator must be inaccurate!
Looking at data from one year is not going to prove anything statistically. All past sales, the number or units still working and being actively used by someone, and the number of units sitting on retail shelves, need to be considered to get any measure of real trends. Even then, unless you have enough data to be meaningful, any conclusions are still statistically shaky.
Looking at the decreases in the combined HP and Compaq, the undisputed leaders in PocketPC, one could conclude that the PocketPC is doomed or that HP will drop out of the PDA market. However, these conclusions are as suspect as any statement made here since nothing is mentioned of HP's competitors, PDA-enabled phones, phone-enabled PDAs, or which OSs these run on. Statistical analysis is a tool, but it can be grossly misused by people trying desperately to prove their point. Whenever someone uses statistics in an arguement, run away!
By the way, my thing is bigger than yours by 50% and that quarter inch is what really matters 
OK, my turn on the soap box is finished.
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01-28-2003, 07:56 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 414
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This is just what I was expecting to hear, PalmOS showing solid market share leadership continuing.
All Fall, the new stuff that became available in quantity was Palm OS NX70, Zire, and Tungsten. What new PPC product shipped in quantity in the crucial Christmas season? Really none. There were a few HP1910s ViewSonics, and Axims, but there were also probably a LOT of people sitting on the sidelines waiting to get one of those and, as a consequence, not buying Ipaqs and Toshibas.
I know none of you will believe this, but I told someone this week to get a PPC. An Axim. I just could not tell him to go get a Palm OS model for $100-300 more. I would have loved to have been able to point him to an Axim with Palm OS, but there is nothing in the Palm OS world even close to the Axim in power per dollar for general PDA use. He wanted to do engineering drawing, Japanese Kanzi text entry (is that the right word? BTW, does anyone here know how to do this on a US PPC?), music, & games. What in the Palm world would compare? A Zire? the latest Sony at $800? The newest Sony SJ30 needed to have virtual grafitti, an ARM processor, dual memory slots (one real compact flash), and 32 meg of RAM if they want to keep Dell from owning the whole PDA world. As it is, the latest Palm OS models are just not competitive anywhere, except screen resolution and the models with built-in cameras.
I still think the Palm OS (4.1) is more reliable, stable, satisfying, than PPC, but even supposing I am right about this, most people would rather have the extra power, memory, features, AND $100 to $200 cash still in their pockets when they leave the store with (AMAZINGLY) the cheaper PPC models.
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01-28-2003, 08:14 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Charles Pickrell
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HP is #2 with $1.6M units, 27.2% below the 2.2M shipped in 2001.
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Ed,
Did you mean to say 1.6 million dollars or 1.6 million units? |
Yes!
Fixing it now. 1.6M units. There were no dollars in any report.  ops:
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01-28-2003, 08:17 PM
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Oracle
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 864
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Where's Foo? Thought for sure he'd be weighing in by now....
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01-28-2003, 08:18 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Re: The contrary view on market share...
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Originally Posted by cdunphy
This should spark some debate.
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It should be noted that Chris Dunphy is a PalmSource employee that reports to Michael Mace, the CCO.
A link will do next time Chris. :wink:
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