01-14-2003, 04:00 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Why the Future Belongs to the Phone
"Eventually these devices will be remembered as amusing artifacts of an era when big, clunky cell phones could barely display a single line of capital letters. Today, new wireless phones have lots of memory, plenty of processing power, and highly readable screens. There should be no reason for you to carry two devices; PDA functions belong in your phone.
This is not to say that PDA makers won't keep trying. Palm, for instance, has slashed prices to $99 for its stripped-down Zire and put Bluetooth in its wildly overpriced Tungsten T. But once your phone can sync with your calendar and your contact list, the Zire is just one more battery you have to manage. And spending extra for a Bluetooth phone so you can dial it with your Tungsten while performing a three-handed juggling act seems the height of techie ludicrousness. At least more and more PDAs this year will come with Wi-Fi built in, which should keep them useful for people who use specialized applications and for road warriors who want a quick hit of e-mail with their lattes."
The author of this article, Stephen Manes, has some great points, but he doesn't quite state the obvious: non-connect PDAs that can't function as phones will be obsolete within a couple of years. There's an evolution that's definitely happening, though it's painfully slow to watch. PDAs are evolving towards phones by picking up cellular functions, and phones are evolving towards PDAs by picking up real operating systems and applications. The newest phones have more "PDA" in them than the newest PDAs have "phone" in them.
The real question four to six years from now won't be a matter of which is "better" (a PDA or a phone) - neither one in it's current form will exist. Instead, every device will function as a phone, a data entry device, a data viewing device, and a general-purpose communications device (IM, IRC, etc.). The choices will be based on screen size, data input method, battery life, etc. - all the things we already take into account when buying a phone.
What do you think?
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01-14-2003, 04:03 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 468
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Well, duh! 
Just kidding, of course. But yes, you're absolutely right; PDAs and phones will soon be one and the same, with both current form factors probably continuing.
What I'm more curious about is what new form factors may we see? How about a watch that functions as a phone/PDA? Something else entirely? I imagine clamshells (aka mini-notebooks) will have a place, too.
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01-14-2003, 04:12 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 204
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YES its already hapening, you see all the PDAs coming out with phone capabilities and you see phones with PDA functions.
Well i dint make it yet to move from a PDA to an XDA i thought i'd give them one more year to evolve and then make the switch to an XDA. For the moment i am carrying a 5450 and a T68, but in a year i think a will be carrying an XDA and a Bluetooth headset
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01-14-2003, 04:24 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 400
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I want a "Global" like they have on the TV show Earth: The Final Conflict.
Wireless net access, video phone, voice controlled, and a touch screen that rolls up when not in use. Just a few more years and these should be viable too! 8O
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01-14-2003, 04:27 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 131
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Of course
I think that story is true. There already are some pretty good "PDAPhones" (Nokia 9210, XDA/MDA, SonyEricsson P800) and they are getting more functional and less heavy.
I, personally, like that SE P800 (I know, I'm a sinner, not a PPC  ops: but I just like it most)
Quote:
I want a "Global" like they have on the TV show Earth: The Final Conflict.
Wireless net access, video phone, voice controlled, and a touch screen that rolls up when not in use. Just a few more years and these should be viable too!
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We're on the same frequency man!!! I was thinking the same thing, they're THE mobile machines
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01-14-2003, 04:35 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Unfortunately, I have to agree with Manes conclusion. The rise of the "Smartphone" is inevitable. PDAs just aren't catching on with the public like cell phones did. It's sad to see that after years of innovation, and cool gadgets, the PDA is still a niche platform. :cry:
Still, I think we have plenty of time before cell phones supplant PDAs, and best is yet to come. 
The only criticism I can find in Stephan's article is that he has only limited experience with PDAs. For God's sake...the only device he has ever used is a REX. And he thinks he understands the multifaceted world of PDAs from using one long since discontinued device? M'kay. :roll:
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01-14-2003, 04:47 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 40
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Phones all the way
I think the phones will be the PDA's of the future (present). I hate the fact that I have to carry around multiple devices and remember to charge both of them and enter in all my contact information/ phone numbers at least twice. I currently do not have a way to sync the two.
I am waiting for the day when the "pocket pc" phones are available by more carriers and the consumer has more choices. (I'm also waiting for prices to come down. :wink: )
I just want to be connected all the time. 8)
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01-14-2003, 04:53 PM
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Neophyte
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 3
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Why the Future belongs to the Phone
I think we will see (at least) three categories of "phones"
1. Basic Phone, very cheap, for markets like China, India (maybe 70%
of the shipments)
2. Smart Phone, like Nokia 7650/MS 2002, small size, Voice is #1 func
3. PDA/XDA = Pocket size PC, voice is 'just' one feature (also the
smallest volume, maybe 10% in three years) 
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01-14-2003, 05:04 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 56
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Well, while everyone is agreeing, I beg to disagree. In the home stereo world, one could argue that separate components make no sense - after all, you're just paying for all those extra power supplies, and having to wire up all the connections between them. Why not just buy an integrated all-in-one entertainment box? Lots of people do.
Yet there continues to be a market for "unconnected" home stereo devices. Why? A main reason is that the purchasers place a value on being able to choose for themselves those particular features they want for each function. And they're willing to pay for them, since the component approach is the more costly one.
Why should it be any different with PDAs and phones? When you buy a PDA/phone combo, you're tying yourself into the manufactuter's constraints. If a better phone technology comes along, you have to upgrade the PDA as well.
I don't think that using a Tungsten to connect to the net via a Bluetooth phone is clunky at all. It's certainly smaller in size than some of the connected PDAs. And if I decide to switch phone service providers (e.g. from a GSM network to a CDMA network), I don't have to throw away my entire device.
But since the P in PDA stands for "personal", your conclusion may be different from mine.l
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01-14-2003, 05:09 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 24
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Remember the "Prime Directive" : INTEGRATION.
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Linear Mode
