01-07-2003, 11:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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The ZapMail of 2003
http://www.shirky.com/writings/zapmail.html
Clay Shirky has written another article this month, this one on how the telecos are once again being squeezed out of providing value added services because they fail to understand how WiFi and Voice Over IP works and how you, with your $100 piece of hardware, are doing the squeezing.
This has already happened once - to FedEx in the 80's with ZapMail. FedEx would install ZapMail printers (you and I call them fax machines) and a ZapMail networking system (you and I call that the phone line) to magically send your documents to other people in just 2 hours (you and I do that in 2 minutes.) They didn't think their target customer would figure this out but would gleefully fork over $3 per page to let FedEx do it for them. Instead, we went out in droves buying machines for $500 each and began sending millions of pages for pennies each.
Now the telephone companies are scrambling to offer ultra-cool IP services for your phone system, all the while assuming we are too stupid to do it on our own. Read Clay's article then come back here and discuss it. Is he right?
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01-07-2003, 11:32 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 129
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Sounds like a great plan... just looked on the Cisco site, and the ATA adaptor itself is $210, which is reasonable for the things it can do. I just put a WiFi switch in my house, why not connect VoIP into it, enjoy phone calls over my 5Mb DSL line as well as wirelessly websurf?
Too cool. Over the long run it'll be great, until the phone companies start figuring out how to charge for IP's - oh wait, they already do; my ISP is part of the phone company. So why haven't they already clued in and offered this? Because it kills their market. They have enough people in the loop that those few of us that can get it to work let alone use it won't hurt the profit margin enough to try and counter it with a reasonable offer.
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01-07-2003, 11:33 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,023
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A good article, but I still have my doubts about VoIP. That Vonage looks pretty cool though. If it was up to me, I'd dropped the phone company long ago. Although a place like Vonage would work perfectly for me, it wouldn't work for the rest of my family.
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01-07-2003, 11:37 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 217
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Great article ... give it some time and I'm sure this prediciton will come true. I'm just wondering what the phone companies are going to do now that they are simple bit pipe producers
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01-07-2003, 11:52 PM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jhokur2k
Sounds like a great plan... just looked on the Cisco site, and the ATA adaptor itself is $210, which is reasonable for the things it can do. I just put a WiFi switch in my house, why not connect VoIP into it, enjoy phone calls over my 5Mb DSL line as well as wirelessly websurf?
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Right there is the problem, right now. There isn't enough demand to justify a $200+ device to solve the problem. The per-minute rates on POTS (plain old telephone system) is pretty reasonable for most people right now. It's not like faxes, where it was $$$ vs cents.
In our institution, we're doing research with IP phones, and plan to switch our entire phone infrastructure over to IP phones soon. But they're still individually too expensive to replace 200+ phones.
Once you get the price down to $50, you'll see the technology take off.
--janak
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01-07-2003, 11:55 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 48
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rirath
A good article, but I still have my doubts about VoIP. That Vonage looks pretty cool though. If it was up to me, I'd dropped the phone company long ago. Although a place like Vonage would work perfectly for me, it wouldn't work for the rest of my family.
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The big problem I saw with Vonage is they don't offer 911 service. I haven't had the need to dial 911 yet, but when the emergency arises I would like to be able to get the police/fire/medical out to my house asap.
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01-08-2003, 12:07 AM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 129
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Janak Parekh
The per-minute rates on POTS (plain old telephone system) is pretty reasonable for most people right now. It's not like faxes, where it was $$$ vs cents.
In our institution, we're doing research with IP phones, and plan to switch our entire phone infrastructure over to IP phones soon. But they're still individually too expensive to replace 200+ phones.
Once you get the price down to $50, you'll see the technology take off.
--janak
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This is very true - especially for the application I would be using it for, that being long distance calls... it gets whooped on by 1.9� / minute phone cards from 7-11. But, as you said, when the price comes down (or better yet, inspire the phone makers to put the option in low end phones for broadband users) it will grow.
I kinda see the same progression DVD had, only on a slower slope - I remember when a friend bought his 1st gen DVD player at around $1200. Now you can get a 3rd gen player that does a lot more for around $100. However, if it wasn't for the people who sank the $1200 in the beginning to show that the idea would take off, the $100 market may never have developed.
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01-08-2003, 12:39 AM
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Sage
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 633
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Pretty much the same as all technology then - price driven! (Albeit the service aspect of 911 calls)
In the UK the offer of Broadband by Cable already includes a phone package - but it utilises regular old lines - and that has been a major issue with the development of ADSL for the leading telco, BT - as they have historically owned the last loop connection, everyone else has had to rent it from them to provide users with their service; the rates they charged meant that fixed rate broadband was not very economical, indeed unviable for most - proved by trials from a few suppliers. However, like most things this has now changed, over the course of the past two years, and now they are finding themselves being a 'bit pipe provider' to others who are pricing and service providing at better rates - hence the price driven comment.
VoIP is, I think, more of a benefit in the US rather than here - the whole structure of charges being so very different - lets face it, long distance here is constrained by the Island itself, which fits in Texas, ooo, say 4 times? Not exactly much 'long' about it! Overseas calls, Australia and so on especially, would drive it - but is there enough of a market for that in the UK?
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01-08-2003, 01:01 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 30
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For all the world when I read the article I kept having the image of the railroad system of the 19th century compared to the 20th and now 21st centuries. In the last half of the 19th centuries the money was in owning the rail networks and they carried everything--goods and people in great numbers. They were, for their day, fast and even economical.
But when the automobile was developed and mass produced, trains began to wane as a means of major provider of public transportation (even more with the advent of planes).
The telcos will become the 21st century versions of the railroads--they will carry some traffic, but customers will go to where the value is--as this article points out.
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01-08-2003, 01:32 AM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,185
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AKBishop
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Originally Posted by Rirath
A good article, but I still have my doubts about VoIP. That Vonage looks pretty cool though. If it was up to me, I'd dropped the phone company long ago. Although a place like Vonage would work perfectly for me, it wouldn't work for the rest of my family.
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The big problem I saw with Vonage is they don't offer 911 service. I haven't had the need to dial 911 yet, but when the emergency arises I would like to be able to get the police/fire/medical out to my house asap. |
That as well as the fact that you can't get more than one line on each broadband connection. Up until a couple of months ago, I had 6 lines running in my home.
I use MCI's Neighborhood plan for $49.99/Month (Plus all the "taxes" that nobody can decipher.) and get all the benefits of Vonage. Hasn't been without glitches, but for as much as I use the phone I still feel like I got a great deal on MCI.
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