09-10-2002, 12:00 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Does the spin never end?
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=75&ncid=738&e=6&u=/nf/20020909/tc_nf/19341
"In the United States, Palm's market share has climbed five percentage points since the start of the year, said Mace, and currently sits near the 90 percent mark. " Give me a break.  The only way Palm is at 90% is if you assume every device they ever sold is still in use. Raise your hand if you and your coworkers have a Palm Pilot 1000, 5000 or even an original Palm III in service. Uh huh. I thought so.
Well, rest assured, the battle between Palm and Microsoft goes well beyond marketing, and even beyond PDA enthusiast sites.  Microsoft has a war chest ready to go. "And while Palm recently launched an upgrade of its OS with multimedia and enhanced security features, IDC analyst Weili Su noted that Microsoft has some US$30 billion at its disposal to push its Pocket PC and upcoming Smartphone 2002 software. Gartner vice president Ken Dulaney contended that Palm's new OS will offer an attractive alternative to Pocket PC on the enterprise side, but he said Palm faces short-term challenges in getting users to make the transition. "They are building a whole new platform," he told Wireless NewsFactor. "
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09-10-2002, 12:37 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 414
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As far as the article itself, it *does* look like all spin all the time. The guy selected the worst quotes from the worst sources. No info, just spin. Is this an election year?
I am amazed that Palm is selling a single PDA, with everyone and their mother knowing that a new OS is out this Fall. When Microsoft offers a new OS they have to promise a free upgrade and even then sales lag a little just before the new release.
What happened to Apple as they waited for OS X to be ready? With Toshiba PPCs selling for an effective $194 (some even got another $50 back afterwards as a price match) I am amazed that Palm sold any PDAs at all.
I am suspicious of Mace's claim that they have gained 5% in market share here this year. But, just to hold steady is an amazing accomplishment. Of course, if they are losing money on each one it won't help them much now to sell a lot of them. The base of 20 million users who will think first of a Palm OS model when they upgrade is a plus for the future, though.
I think there is one big reason that PPC is still not making it. In spite of the $30 million Maswell's Silver Hammer behind their back, that would allow them to squash anyone they want (if the Justice department let them) people look at the dumb desktop that they want to throw out the window (maybe that is why they call it Windows) everyday when it messes up. They do not want a Windows *anything* on their handheld.
Not that Palm is that much better. I expect OS 5 to still be fairly lame. I wish, oh how I wish it were Epoc Quartz.
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09-10-2002, 12:48 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Timothy Rapson
I am suspicious of Mace's claim that they have gained 5% in market share here this year.
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There was a similar discussion at 'Buzz last year and Mace jumped in. They cling to retail numbers claiming that wholesale/enterprise numbers are too hard to get a handle on. So, they take comfort in the increased marketshare they get when they are blowing out discontinued Palm V and M100 models.
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09-10-2002, 01:55 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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This is what I find most aggravating about Palm, and Mike Mace in particular. Self glorification, and the constant hurtling of criticisms at Microsoft's product for all its shortcomings..and yet they still don't have a competitive platform by which to judge. Where is Palm's advanced 32bit architecture? Where is multimedia support. Where is this multitasking...multithreading wonder from PalmSource? Microsoft has done it all wrong, while Palm has done it all right....except they haven't even done it yet. No product, just tough talk. A little too much tough talk from a company who's stock is worth less than a can of soda.
Show me a modern OS that is more innovative, offers the same (or better) capabilities, and still maintains the trademark advantages (battery life, size, weight, form factor, elegance) of PalmOS. Then we'll talk.
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Palm has declared that it will continue to deliver the software and hardware handheld users have come to prefer over the alternatives.
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Yeah, good plan. But first you might try to get back some of that marketshare you've lost to the "alternatives". Palm's customers seem to be increasingly choosing Sony's products.
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Palm's market share has climbed five percentage points since the start of the year, said Mace, and currently sits near the 90 percent mark.
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And this is counting ALL Palm's sold to date? I didn't realize that Pilot 1000's sitting in landfills were included in the installed base. How many of those 15,000 apps will a Palm run, buried under ten feet of garbage? If a datebook alarm goes off, and no one is around to hear it...does it make a sound? :roll:
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"We have to offer greater flexibility in all these areas, including more hardware and software choices, ranging from a basic handheld device to camera-enabled smartphone models."
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No, you don't have a camera-enabled smartphone (yet). Your licensees do. Stop counting innovations from your partners as your own.
I swear, someone should put a muzzle on Mace. I can see a replacement for my babbling Carl avatar is in order.
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09-10-2002, 02:08 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Timothy Rapson
I wish, oh how I wish it were Epoc Quartz.
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I wish that a company with the right vision and resources were able to take BeOS assets and create an amazingly innovative OS. Too bad that company isn't Palm.
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09-10-2002, 02:14 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 390
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Didn't palm release a PR last february or so saying that they are about to take over the world just by European retail sales trend of the month?
and it turned out they are loosing so big for the quarter it's not even funny.
I think the big item this quarter will be the E310, because of the steep discount and transition to OS5.0. On the palm side it could be their deep discount can stave off the loosing market share. Majority of Palm now are under $2-250.
what is really interesting would be the next holiday buying season. Everybody is releasing new models. New OS5.0 in palm side, while PPC has new Dell on low end, and bunch of new .net high end. (what's up with the phone edition anyway?)
that would make an interesting situation.
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09-10-2002, 02:25 PM
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Contributing Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,389
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Palm's new fance, multi-media, complex, high powered OS is completly backwards from what "Palm" is. What happened to "simple"? Isn't that what they were saying they had that Microsoft didn't? Simple easy to use... Always bashing windows because people don't need mp3 audio or video playback on their handhelds.
So what do people want? If palm goes to this new fancy shmancy OS what happens to those (poor lost souls) who only want/need a basic digital organizer? Will palm alienate their current user base? Will they be able to sway enough new users to the not so dark side? Tune in next time...
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09-10-2002, 02:40 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,466
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jason Lee
If palm goes to this new fancy shmancy OS what happens to those (poor lost souls) who only want/need a basic digital organizer?
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Palm will continue to offer affordable legacy m68k based organizers running OS4. OS5 ARMware will be restricted to the high-end. Palm will continue to have a nicely balanced price tier for its customers. That isn't the problem.
The REAL problem is that Palm will begin marketing expensive devices with multimedia functions at a time when Pocket PC is getting cheaper. You can bet that the first OS5 systems will cost at least $450- $500. If the rumors of Dell's move into the PDA market with a $299 PPC are true, Palm is going to have a hard time trying to get consumers to buy their new hardware. It's rather sad. Palm has been fighting a bloody price war in the low-end of the market with its own licensees. And now they are jumping into the high-end market, just in time to get butchered by Pocket PC vendors. And in the cell phone/smartphone market, they have Nokia to content with.
Some days it just doesn't pay to be a money losing device company.
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09-10-2002, 03:54 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 217
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I hope both Microsoft and Palm get it together. So far Smartphone 2002 devices are about as much vaporware as working Palm OS 5 units.
I wonder about the future of Pocket PC once Tablet PC is officially launched in November. You already have to pay $1000 for a new iPaq and a couple of accessories. If I could pay a little more for a smallish Tablet PC that runs full fledged Office XP instead of worrying about the limitations of Pocket Word, I think that would be an interesting dilemma. I know Microsoft says they are committed to the Pocket PC platform blah blah but what else are they going to say? Granted, a Tablet PC isn't much of an MP3 player, but neither is the current incarnation of WMP 8 for PPC for that matter. :wink:
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09-10-2002, 04:29 PM
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Sage
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 784
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He also contended that despite Microsoft's broad array of applications offerings, Palm offers more software, with some 1,500 programs available.
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1,500 POS programs... :roll:
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