04-09-2002, 01:33 AM
|
|
Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
|
|
Myopic Thinking
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=7141#7141
I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.
Does anyone REALLY think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.
Right now the all-in-one solutions are clumsy, first generation units that have major sacrifices on both sides (Pocket PC 2002 Phone Edition included). Give it a few generations, and the concept of a phone that only does calls will be as passe as a PDA that only does PIM. The market as a whole has to evolve, but look back at the way cell phone use went. Ten years ago, if I would have said "In ten years, everyone will be using cell phones, even ten year old kids!" I would have been laughed at. In the early 90's, cell phones were clunky, had horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and were very expensive. Why on earth would "everyone" be using them? Only the "elite" had them - people who were willing to put up with the costs and sacrifices of owning one.
Society evolves, and what we value changes over time - right now being in touch 24/7 is something we not only value, it's something we thrive upon (I know some people who don't even have land lines). Once cell phones hit critical mass with enough people having them (so there were people you knew you could call), at the right price point, the right size/battery life, and most important of all the right pricing plan from carriers, use exploded. Now it's odd to NOT find someone who doesn't have a cell phone.
Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.
"But Jason, all people want to do is talk." Sure, NOW that's all they want to do - but that's the same concept that led Palm to think that people would only ever want black and white PIM. Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly. Until that happens, we get to enjoy watching it all unfold before our eyes - no one is going to get it right on the first try, but to assume that the evolution we're seeing is a dead end is naive.
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 02:44 AM
|
|
Pontificator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,468
|
|
Yes - agreed! The device of the future will be neither PDA nor Phone - it will whatever emerges from the stumbling attempts to cross fertilise. The only thing I know for sure is that, whatever they look like (and whatever they do, I want one!
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 03:07 AM
|
|
Ponderer
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 53
|
|
The Future is Uncertain, but...
When things are difficult and expensive, they tend not to be done.
This is today's wireless data access.
When things are easy and cheap, they tend to be included.
This is tomorrow's wireless data access.
Now, to have a wireless PDA tends to be difficult and expensive.
But, if it were cheap and easy, would you not do it?
Imagine a new computer today that did not include a modem or an Ethernet port. Would you not wonder over this?
Yet there was a time where this was normal and expected. It is no longer this way.
To get to where we are today, there were many stumbles and missteps. Many approaches were tried and now lie forgotten beside the road.
But, we came up with a solution that works.
Now, it is a matter of enduring the stumbles and missteps on the way to wireless. What is going to work? I don't think anyone knows yet.
But people still try. Those who try and are not afraid to fail will eventually win. Those who try to preserve the status quo will eventually be consumed.
The failures are instructive.
Does the future lie in a dedicated mobile phone; one that is only a phone? Not entirely. They will still be available but comprise a shrinking share of the market. It may still be measured in the billions, but it will decline.
Greater functionality is included in all phones now. At some point, it will be a range of gradations rather than a clear division. Maybe if you take devices from each end of the spectrum, the differences will be clear. Side by side, less so.
Maybe Nokia and Ericsson and the rest of the Symbian alliance do have reason to be worried. The software and hardware solutions from Microsoft and TI (and RIM for that matter) may provide a means for a second-or-third tier maker (or a previously non-existent maker) to leapfrog into the first tier.
Wireless phone and data communications as just another service on a highly functional device? I think that will happen and be increasingly seen as 'normal.' At some point, like a modem or Ethernet today, it will be seen as indispensable.
There is no reason that a device could not be engineered that would have a software-defined radio capable of 802.11, GSM/GPRS, CDMA/1x as well as Bluetooth. Even now, Nokia is marketing a card that provides 802.11 and GSM/GPRS. Will this not become integral at some point?
__________________
Jeff McKean
Marketing Manager
Mobile Devices Division
Microsoft
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 04:11 AM
|
|
Ponderer
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 58
|
|
the future
ive said this before "maybe not here"
but i thnk the future of cell ohnoes and pdas are very well reflected todays scifi tv shows especialy Earth : final conflict
in the show thay have essnetialy cell phones/ micor computers with built in cameras that give a live feed for video conferencng
it has a flexible display that roels up into a lot like a tape measuree does
and it has tremenodus inforamtion ability
i thnk this is fantatstic and a nice logical step
the flexibel display especily
and if techonology like the holgrahic keyboards that exst now start to get intergrated into devices "awsome" items like seikos new link pen "awseome" you wil realy see a new devie on the market
now as usualy this is your horid spelling compusa pda guru Eric linsley sighning off
" its nice that the palm is smaller, cheaper and overall easier to operate
but so is my tricyle.
and there is no way in h311 im taking that to work" :twisted:
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 04:16 AM
|
|
Neophyte
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 7
|
|
Treo
OK - I hate web-based message boards. I just spent a long time writing up this mission statement a la Jerry Maguire just to have my session expire when I tried to preview it. Message lost.
The gist of my message was this (about 10% of it!):
"Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly."
At the risk of being flamed, I believe the first revolutionary device has already arrived... and it isn't based on WinCE. The Handspring Treo is everything a modern smartphone should be - small, fast, easy to use, with a great data input mechanism, and 13,000 existing applications.
I have owned an iPaq for 2 years, and before that I had 4 Palms and a Palm PC (that was pure hell... 4 batteries a DAY) I am a huge fan of the PocketPC but am largely disappointed in Microsoft's attempt in the smartphone space.
PocketPC Phone Edition is too big. It will never reach critical mass - it will be for techies and geeks for as long as it is still around. And SmartPhone 2002 is even worse - who wants to use 0-9 to type an email message to their mother? Talk about painful. Not to mention the fact that there ZERO applications available, eVB doesn't support it, and it can't leverage any of the existing PocketPC applications or games.
Handspring got the hard part right - the user experience - 3 click dialing, mini-keyboard, small form factor, trendy design, great built-in software. They don't have color, 200mhz, or MP3 capabilities (yet) but they have revolutionized the hybrid concept which is what is important for 95% of the potential buyers out there. I firmly believe this is the device to beat in this space having used it for a month now. I haven't picked up my iPaq since, as much as I still love it. There is just no need for it.
I still loathe the PalmOS. But the benefits of a small, easy to use, all in one device far outweight the pain. Once PalmOS 5 rolls out and the Treo can mimic the screen and functionality of the Sony Clie on a faster processor, there will be no advantage to a Microsoft solution. Why buy a Sendo Z100 if there are no applications for it and it takes 30 minutes to type "I am coming home at 8". Or a PPC PE that can barely fit in your pocket?
Handspring just got it right. Sure, it is inevitable that they will be copied, but this device is simply beautiful. It is ultimately a GREAT phone, a GREAT organizer and a GREAT wireless data device. The only thing it lacks is multimedia, arguably the least important of the four. But for now, I am just about satisfied. Until next year at least.
Mike
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 04:32 AM
|
|
Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 135
|
|
Myopic Thinking
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/foru...hp?p=7141#7141
I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.
Does anyone REALLY think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.
|
I read that, and I think in some wierd disjointed way, you've inspired a front page thought!!! Stay tuned.
Cheers,
Sam
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 04:45 AM
|
|
Ponderer
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 53
|
|
The Treo is cool, but...
I think the Treo is very cool too, but... they didn't launch with GPRS,(hopefully fixed soon) and after a first infatuation, I've come into contact with more and more Treos that looked worn and with creaking covers (after just a few weeks of use).
I don't think it's revolutionary, just evolutionary; and the same can be said for the Pocket PC Phone Edition. The difference is that I think PPC/PE is evolving on a completely different plane and ultimately in the right direction.
The form factor can and probably will be changed or adopted in different ways. But the ultimate guts of the device, and the software, are far superior to a Palm OS based device.
And, (I'm speaking of the HTC/O2/T-Mobile device here) it feels pretty good and looks great. I haven't seen one with a lot of use yet. And it fits in a shirt pocket without making the pocket stick out very much! The Treo is much thicker and I just can't come to terms with that flip cover. I can hold the HTC device between my ear and shoulder and I don't dare do that with the Treo.
Just my opinion. I think there's room for both. 
__________________
Jeff McKean
Marketing Manager
Mobile Devices Division
Microsoft
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 05:00 AM
|
|
Intellectual
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 117
|
|
Myopic Thinking
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.
|
I'm not sure how many people will want to e-mail, IM, video conference, and web browse on the move. All of those things require you to look at the screen. When I'm on the move, I'm generally moving, looking where I'm going, and doing things. I can talk on a phone while doing any of that, but I can't send out an e-mail.
I can definitely see a day where such all in one communicators are popular, but they'll never be as popular as cell phones. They just aren't as practical, regardless of cost.
Jeff
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 05:05 AM
|
|
Neophyte
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 7
|
|
Treo
Yeah - there is definitely room for both. I haven't played with any of the PPC/PE devices, so all I am going on is the screenshots. Like I said, I am a huge PPC fan and I 100% agree with you that the "guts" is far superior to the PalmOS.
I dont think MS has failed, I think it is the OEMs that just aren't getting it. I love the OS with a passion (which is why I am on this site 100x a day!) but the way the devices are "thrown together" just doesn't make sense to me. Handspring took a different approach, similar to the Pilot. They really analyzed how people will use this thing and viola, a simple, small device. And ultimately, the fact that they didn't launch with GPRS isn't a bad thing, it is either they launch without it or they don't launch at all! No fault of their own - luckily it is just a software upgrade.
I have had my Treo for about a month now and it still looks brand new. Not that it always will, but I have had no wear-and-tear issues at all. Honestly, the form factor is the closest thing to a "normal" phone AND a "normal" PDA that exists IMHO. With PPC and SP2002, it is either one or the other. A "normal" PDA that acts like a phone, or a "normal" phone that has minimal PDA capabilities.
I am amazed that some of the PPC/PE are thinner than the Treo which feels really slim to me. But the sacrifice is that the screen is unprotected, which is a big annoyance.
Of the two - PPC/PE and SmartPhone 2002, I think PPC/PE is probably the one with the most potential - it is just the form factor and price that MS OEMs have always had a hard time with!
Give me a color Treo with PPC/PE optimized for the jog dial and keyboard and I will be in heaven.
Mike
|
| |
|
|
|
04-09-2002, 05:09 AM
|
|
Neophyte
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 7
|
|
"I can definitely see a day where such all in one communicators are popular, but they'll never be as popular as cell phones. They just aren't as practical, regardless of cost."
But what if the device looked and functioned like a phone 99% of the time. And that 1% of the time that you are waiting in your car for your girlfriend to finish doing her hair, you could check to see if your Amazon order shipped, or get directions to dinner. If price isn't an issue, which it won't be eventually, wouldn't you rather have the best of both but optimized for the features you use the most?
Mike
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Linear Mode
