02-27-2002, 12:49 AM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Why the Consumer Market Doesn't Matter
http://www.writingonyourpalm.net/column020225.htm
I've long admired Jeff Kirvin's writing, and his Feb 25th column is a must-read. I'm sure many of you will disagree with the premise, and at one point I did too, but I reluctantly came to understand the truth last year. More on that in another upcoming post - read Jeff's article and tell me what YOU think.
"In a ZDnet AnchorDesk article recently, the author explained how he thought Microsoft could beat Palm with the Pocket PC. Most of his strategy seemed to hinge on making the Pocket PC more accessible to consumers: making it cheaper, more customizable, etc. Basically, he seemed to think that the Pocket PC as it stands now is just too stodgy and expensive to catch on. He just doesn't get it.
Whenever I see people -- well, not bashing, really, but disapproving of -- the Pocket PC, the "it's too expensive/big/stodgy for the consumer market" complaint is always high on the list. I don't think these people get that Microsoft isn't worried about the consumer market just yet, and the only reason you can buy Pocket PCs retail at all right now is to generate "mind share" and general awareness of the platform. It's a lot more profitable to sell 5,000 Pocket PCs on one order than to try to sell to -- and later support -- 5,000 individual consumers. While I think Microsoft will go after this market eventually, it's too soon now.
The important thing is to get palmtops taken seriously as business tools. A leopard skin faceplate is not going to do that. What will do that is a device powerful enough to handle the bulk of what a lot of corporations buy notebooks for now, at a fraction of the price, weight and bulk. Pocket PCs can do that. Palms can too, but as I've mentioned before, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for Palms in the enterprise can be higher because of all the extra software that must be added to them, and the support costs of getting all that software to work together."
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02-27-2002, 01:53 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 21
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Personal Computers were first introduced into corporations by employees and business unit managers, not IT. That's one of the reasons why companies sell to consumers, they influence corporations when it comes to new technology. Take the "airline magazine syndrome" for example.
Eventually (long after the cat was out of the bag) IT got control of PCs in the enterprise and created desktop services units. That's when IBM was able to leverage its relationships with IT managers to sell PCs into companies. I don't recall Microsoft ever having anything to do with getting PCs into corporations. And therefore I don't think Microsoft is the one to do it with Pocket PCs.
I believe it will happen the same way it did with PCs. Consumers, in the form of business unit managers, will lead the way. Manufacturers like Compaq, NEC, Toshiba and H-P will be the ones to sell corporations on Pocket PCs, not Microsoft. Microsoft will come in afterward to sell software.
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02-27-2002, 02:26 AM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Originally Posted by Steve
Personal Computers were first introduced into corporations by employees and business unit managers, not IT. That's one of the reasons why companies sell to consumers, they influence corporations when it comes to new technology. Take the "airline magazine syndrome" for example.
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Exactly!!!! read on though.....
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Originally Posted by Steve
Eventually (long after the cat was out of the bag) IT got control of PCs in the enterprise and created desktop services units. That's when IBM was able to leverage its relationships with IT managers to sell PCs into companies. I don't recall Microsoft ever having anything to do with getting PCs into corporations. And therefore I don't think Microsoft is the one to do it with Pocket PCs.
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But who brought in those PC's? Power users Those that knew the power of apps like Lotus 1-2-3 and the (then) convenience of DOS. Personally, I don't think PIM is going to cut it. I get the "wow's" with IT folks when I show them I can VPN to a terminal server over a cell phone connection and access corporate information from an airport. That gets the wheels turning in their minds. And that is what MS is counting on. And it is coming from those same power users whos ancestors brought PC's into the workplace. ;-)
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I believe it will happen the same way it did with PCs. Consumers, in the form of business unit managers, will lead the way. Manufacturers like Compaq, NEC, Toshiba and H-P will be the ones to sell corporations on Pocket PCs, not Microsoft. Microsoft will come in afterward to sell software.
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Yes - that has always been their business model. Sell a few cheap copies of Windows (or Pocket PC licenses) and sell big bucks in Office and Backoffice. Mobile Information Server, Windows Server and services are the revenue stream MS is looking for with their mobie device strategy. Compaq and HP are also looking to sell services and big iron to handle that MS software.
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02-27-2002, 02:42 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 21
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You and I are 100% in sync on this, Ed.
Contrary to popular belief, IT managers are not running around looking for great ways to increase the efficiency of business units. It takes "power users" or technology advocates within business units to "force" technology into a corporation. IT folks are just trying to meet demand.
As far as Microsoft, it makes money selling seats on Office, hardware is just a means to an end.
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02-27-2002, 04:30 AM
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Neophyte
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 2
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Quote:
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IT folks are just trying to meet demand.
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Often times I see that IT is actually trying to quell demand... there are usually better, smarter, faster ways of doing things, but they really just dont want to deal with it, or worse, fear they are incapable to deal with the changes.
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02-27-2002, 06:52 AM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 168
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If MS ever thought they would 'capture' the market from Palm selling $499 + PDAs they were insane. I always thought they were going going for the coroprate/power users. Let grandma and the technophobes use the Palm -- it's the AOL of the PDA set -- Really simple and not very powerful.
To compete with Palm on all market levels, MS would have to create a dumbed down OS to minimize hardware requirements. I wouldn't be interested in such a thing, and I'm not sure grandma would want one either. I'd let Palm have the cheapo end of the market and try to capture the mid and high end markets (that's where the $$ is anyway).
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02-27-2002, 06:32 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 11
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Not so sure PPC gets it done in the enterprise either
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
But who brought in those PC's? Power users Those that knew the power of apps like Lotus 1-2-3 and the (then) convenience of DOS. Personally, I don't think PIM is going to cut it. I get the "wow's" with IT folks when I show them I can VPN to a terminal server over a cell phone connection and access corporate information from an airport. That gets the wheels turning in their minds. And that is what MS is counting on. And it is coming from those same power users whos ancestors brought PC's into the workplace. ;-)
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I would agree to a certain extent that power users can introduce devices, etc. into IT infrastructures; however, this assumes that PPC can compete in that arena. What I mean by that is: give the average enterprise user a PPC to use for a couple of months, and the majority are going to toss it in the corner. We tried it and the majority of responses were that battery always seemed low or dead and that opening programs would get sluggish. Also, nobody liked the size and weight of the iPaq (sleeveless in most cases). Those that utilized VPN preferred doing so with a laptop for it's obviously bigger screen and quicker connection. I'm sure that had we chosen to stick with PPC, there would have been some very digruntled employees. We ultimately settled on Blackberries and Palms. Everyone seems happy.
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02-27-2002, 06:41 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 183
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If you are suggesting that history will repeat itself, and that handhelds will gain corporate acceptance the same way PCs did, then I think Palm has the upper hand.
The reason why is the "killer app" theory. The reason why many of those people brought all those Apples into the office was to use Visicalc. So, it seems the question would be, what is the "thing" about PDAs that causes people buy them and to bring them into the office? Despite how much we deny it, the answer is PIM.
Most people that I talk do who have decided to get a PDA have finally agreed to the value of a using a handheld to manage calendar, contacts and tasks. But, since companies aren't buying these devices for them, their purchase decision of which handheld to get for PIM is the lowest price, which leads them to Palm and/or Handspring.
So, what happens when IT opens their eyes to realize that everyone has a handheld, and that handheld is a Palm OS device? Do they go with the defacto standard, or do they decide to go with a Pocket PC? Just how successful do you think IT organizations are going to be at telling their employees that they have to stop using their Palm in favor of a Pocket PC that is the "corporate standard?" IMHO, this is a big up-hill battle that suggests that Microsoft's corporate approach may not work.
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02-27-2002, 07:01 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fmcpherson
The reason why is the "killer app" theory. The reason why many of those people brought all those Apples into the office was to use Visicalc. So, it seems the question would be, what is the "thing" about PDAs that causes people buy them and to bring them into the office? Despite how much we deny it, the answer is PIM.
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I disagree - I think it's communication, and that's why PDAs haven't become mainstream yet. Until wireless is everywhere, and people can use PDAs to communicate, they won't be mainstream like cellphones are. Communication has always been, and always will be, the "killer app" for widespead adoption. IMO. :-)
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02-27-2002, 07:14 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 11
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
I disagree - I think it's communication, and that's why PDAs haven't become mainstream yet. Until wireless is everywhere, and people can use PDAs to communicate, they won't be mainstream like cellphones are. Communication has always been, and always will be, the "killer app" for widespead adoption. IMO. :-)
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I agree. What that means however is that Microsoft is way behind in the race. What it also means is that, by your statement, the future doesn't look too terribly bright for Pocket PC and the jury's still out on Smartphone.
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