02-26-2002, 09:44 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Microsoft's Vision: PDA for the common man
http://www.silicon.com/bin/bladerunner?30REQEVENT=&REQAUTH=21046&14001REQSUB=REQINT1=51588
I have been waiting for an article like this for quite some time. The title is really the crux of the debate between the Palm and Microsoft strategies for consumers and access to PIM data, though the article dances around it and never really strikes home.
So, rather than quote from it (I encourage you to read it yourself) I am going to bring the point home. Many have lamented the fact that Microsoft and friends (HP, Compaq, Toshiba, Casio, etc.) do not have a "consumer PDA." Presumably this is a sub-$200 device that Palm is using to clean Microsoft's clock with. Microsoft has stated often that they are not targeting consumers with the Pocket PC. While they are not shying away from it, consumers aren't in the Pocket PC bullseye of where they are aiming. In fact, Compaq shot an arrow at the consumer with the 3150 grayscale iPAQ and it missed. If someones wants that much power, they at least want color, and that prohibits anything under $350-400 with today's technology.
The enterprise is the target with Pocket PC's. Terminal Server, VPN, system security, IMAP/POP3 support, Excel, Word, SQLServer CE, etc. Now, there are some cool things that consumers will love, like Reader and Media Player, and if you want all that, a Pocket PC is a better bet than a $400 PalmOS based machine that is hacked up with VFS and other proprietary solutions to mimic what a Pocket PC does effortlessy.
So, how is MS targeting consumers? Simple. Stinger. I would argue that if you want a PDA, you'd already have one. They are just too plentiful and have been out for several years. You also already have a cell phone. Now, in a year or so, you will be able to have basic PIM, some apps, email, browsing, music, etc. on your phone - a phone the same size as the one you carry today. I think smartphones are going to cut the knees out from under Palm in a big way. MS Smart Phones, Nokia phones, whatever. If you don't have a PDA today, you likely never will because a smartphone will do everything you need and more. And if you do need more power than that, then you are willing to spend a few bucks to get it - a laptop replacement if you will, so you will spring for a Pocket PC or a Pocket PC Phone. Where does that leave Palm? Out in the rain. Without an umbrella. In 3 inches of standing water.
Tell me what you think. Think MS is on the wrong track to win over consumers? Think Palm had better get their act together or become the next BetaMax?
Thanks to Chris Coulter for the link.
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02-26-2002, 09:58 PM
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Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 556
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Microsoft's Vision: PDA for the common man
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ed Hansberry
If you don't have a PDA today, you likely never will because a smartphone will do everything you need and more.
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Tell me what you think. Think MS is on the wrong track to win over consumers? Think Palm had better get their act together or become the next BetaMax?
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I agree. 3G comes soon and people will be throwing away their current phones and they will realize that there is no point in having separate phone and PDA. Companies, which are relying on PDAs and are not offering integrated phones will die sooner than later.
Once you realize this, then it becomes plastic fantastic, bombastic, that actually smartphone will massively outnumber PDA very soon.
There's going to be a war. And you have to do something.
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02-26-2002, 09:59 PM
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Pontificator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,177
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I agree with your Pocket PC vs Palm analysis.
But I don't see the Smartphone 2002 (formerly known as Stinger :wink: ) as a consumer-Pocket PC. The Smartphone 2002 vs Pocket PC comparison is a lot more nuanced than that.
The Smartphone 2002 is a phone. The Pocket PC is a PDA. Different things, different goals. While I do see more consumers buying a Smartphone 2002, than a Pocket PC (when they can be bought...!) it is not because Microsoft targets the consumers with it and not the enterprise, but because more people find use of mobile phones than of PDAs, in general.
In my world, as an enterprise system architect, I will view the Smartphone 2002 as a premier enterprise device that will enable many new corporate business scenarios.
I believe Microsoft will eventually revisit the entire range of Pocket PC vs consumer aspects and address those, and do so, most probably, separate from their mobile phone efforts.
-Andy.
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02-26-2002, 09:59 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,768
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Exactly on
Ed,
Your commentary is exactly on as I see it. The PocketPC Phone Edition and it's future iterations will cater towards the high-end PDA users while the SmartPhone will become ubiquitous and a part of the way people use phones. What I suspect is that MS won't make much from licensing the SmartPhone OS, but it will help spear MS as a provider of operating systems, applications, and services to the carriers where big dollars are made.
-Jonathan
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02-26-2002, 10:10 PM
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Oracle
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 864
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I see this as MS's way to further service rather than OS and Software directly,it furthers the ability to access your info anywhere and be tethered to your desk anywhere, any file anywhere. I think they look at it like whether it be a phone, pda, computer or whatever, you should be able to access all of your information anywhere on any format, this is where their strength lies in making information ubiquitous, after all knowledge is power, and knowledge is based on information. It's like an information umbilical cord.
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02-26-2002, 10:23 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,228
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Andy Sjostrom
The Smartphone 2002 is a phone. The Pocket PC is a PDA. Different things, different goals.
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But that is my point Andy. If you don't already have a PDA it is because you don't need one. A Smart Phone will serve all of your PDA needs and then some. That is the MS consumer PDA. Voice first - data second. Quite the opposite from the Pocket PC phone. Data first, voice second.
That isn't to take anything away from the enterprise uses of a SmartPhone either. I just think, assuming the price and subsidy is right, that the SmartPhone will be the ubiquitious PDA for people.
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02-26-2002, 10:44 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 22
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While Andy raises some good points, I agree with Ed. The PDA market is not fully saturated, but it's probably getting close to that point, and certainly the high-end PDA market (PPC and the more expensive Palms) is very saturated. The next market is the people who don't own PDAs.
My husband fits very well into this category. He stopped carrying a Palm because he didn't really need the features. But he does carry a cellphone. What he wants is a device that'll sync with Outlook for contacts and calendar information, and will give him minimal email and web browsing capability. The Smartphone is perfectly positioned for this kind of user.
---Ell
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02-26-2002, 11:15 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 31
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Subject ramblings from a MADMAN!
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Originally Posted by entropy1980
i you should be able to access all of your information anywhere on any format
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That's right.. you SHOULD be able to access your information anywhere on any format. But I'm pretty sure that MS is going to go out of it's way to make sure that the information is going to be in Outlook format!!! I agree with most of the rest of your statement.
However, I'm going to say something here that might pee some people off, but it's my own personal experience, and it's the truth.
My girlfriend bothers me to put and seek information from my PocketPC all the time  . So I decided to get her one of her own. Problem is, she's not a power user, and she sure as hell will drop the thing on a weekly basis, no doubt about it. So I'm not going to lay out $600 for this thing (plus all the accessories). Nor am I going to pay $300 for a last generation unit. I'm so cheap, I don't even want to pay $150 for an HP Journada
PocketPC2000. . I'd still have to get a hard case for it, and by then, the bulk of the thing would prohibit itself to the depths of her purse... never to be seen or used again.
So I started looking at the Palms. I DID WHAT? That's right. I went on Ebay and looked for some Palms in my area. Found one from a pawnshop... $40. Palm III. No cradle or software or nothing. But we were able to verify it did work before we left. So I went home, and all the way home my girlfriend was playing with it like crazy. She loved it. It was simple. It had a built-in cover. There are only a few buttons. The text is big.
Now, I'm a techno-geek just like the rest of you. The thought of owning a Palm just irked me. But then I saw her using it. All of the above things to me would be a turn-off. However, those are the things she liked! Very simple. Very easy to use.
Then I went to a store, and was able to buy a serial cable for it for $15. It was a Palm m105 cable, but it worked.
So I downloaded the Palm Desktop software and installed it. Then hooked up the cable. Then I synced it. It was amazing! It just worked. Nothing to it. Remember your first time setting up ActiveSync???? I bet it wasn't like this!!!
Recently we took a long trip. It was at night, and she was playing games on her Palm with the backlight on for hours. She put it away. A few days later she went back to use it, and it had reset. Oh crap, I thought. We're screwed. All that data. When we got home, I plugged it in, and it re-synced itself! All data AND PROGRAMS. It was just amazing. I stood there in total AWE of this thing. $55 total package. I know you can't buy a new Palm for that price, but one of the units (m100, m105???) are only like $100 new. Still... nothing to really configure for syncronizing. And the Palm Desktop software is EASY to use, and is not bloated to death like Outlook.
Why am I ragging on here? You guys are talking about consumer devices. I'm telling you what a consumer wants. I even recall a day here on PocketPCThoughts when Jason Dunn got a Palm (m500? m505?), and even HE said it did nearly everything he needed. I wish I could point you to a URL to prove that, but the crash probably did away with that. In any case, Microsoft needs to go into overtime to SIMPLIFY these things for the consumer. Even if they have to slim down on things! Some people just don't need the speaker on a Pocket, and some don't need the color screen. Most don't need wireless (on a PocketPC... I'll get into phones in a minute), either. And I don't want to get into the turnover rate problems. I'm constantly irked by the fact that I can't use my Casio E-1xx serial cables with the Casio E-200. Casio makes an adapter that will allow you to use them, but that adapter isn't available yet! And the adapter also has USB, which is a good thing, but still.
It's like everything you get a cell phone. You then have to buy the car charger, the serial cable, and the belt case. It's crazy!!! I forced myself to make my last cellphone last 2 years. I hope to do the same with my new one!
I hear all this talk about the new Smart Phones and whatnot. I can't even imagine how unbearable this thing might be. Of course, I've not used it at all, and have read very little on the subject. But one thing that gets me is battery life. Are you going to have to charge this thing every 6 hours or what???
And what if you need to look up information? You have to move the phone away from your head to look it up. That's what's nice about separate phones and PDAs. Also, what if it breaks big time? You have NO PDA OR CELL PHONE. You're totally screwed.
And what if the phone application crashes or you have to soft-reset the unit? You loose the phone call. Ugh. What if the unit locks up totally and needs a HARD-RESET! OH NO! Will it remember which service it belongs to, and your phone number? Will you have to take it home and re-sync it just to make another phone call?
I'm sure most of my fears are probably unfounded. But that's what I think of when I think of a Microsoft driven cell phone. I'm sorry, but it just doesn't sound appealing. Now, the idea of a PDA/Phone does appeal to me. But I don't need a big fat bloated unit complete with a color LCD. I think for A LOT of people out there, those Palm/Phone combos are killer.
I wouldn't have said this before I actually used the Palm... but since I have had the experience with it, it's forcing me to re-think some of my ideas about how the [PDA/PocketPC] world works!
Will I give up my PocketPC? No! But on the flipside, ask that to the Palm crowd, and they may give you the same answer!
I found it interesting that on Dale's site he was talking about walking through a crowd giving away PocketPCs if users traded in their Palms on the spot. Some did, some didn't. Find that interesting??? If some guy gave me a $300-$600 piece of hardware for free, would I take it? Hell yes! But remember, Palm has $100 units out there that cover everything a PDA needs to do AND MORE. If the PocketPC world wants to become king of the marketshare for PDAs, then they're going to have to tackle that market.
Make it EASY. Make it EASY TO USE. Make it EASY TO INTERFACE. Make it EASY TO RESTORE/RECOVER. Make it SMALL. Make it SOLID AS A ROCK. Make it SLIM/UNBLOATED.
Even if you do that, there will still be an uncertain air with some people (me included). Even just mentioning that a cell phone contains Microsoft software is enough to make me think long and hard about it. You guys have to remember that not all of us actually like Microsoft. They have a LONG and HARD fight ahead of them against the likes of Palm and the cell phone makers. The phone makers aren't going to want to pay license fees, and they're most likely not going to want to give up control of how their units work. If they build a phone based on MS specifications (for they must, if they want the license!), then they give up a lot of control of how their units function (even down to the type of LCD display and CPU... look what happened with the PocketPC2002 units!!!). Just something to think about when you're pondering this subject guys...
I know this is a lot of rambling, and only slightly on-topic, but it's my experience and thoughts. Take from it what you will.
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02-26-2002, 11:26 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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"There are already 22 manufacturers building or planning to build devices using Microsoft's PocketPC operating system. Microsoft is committed to increasing that number and helping as many of them as possible to build smart phones, too."
22? Hmm. 8)
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02-26-2002, 11:45 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 11
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A few points
While I find your point that the growth in handhelds will come via smartphones interesting, I have to take issue with some of what you said:
1) Your assuming that PPC is the enterprise platform of choice. While it's true that PPC is more geared to enterprise users than consumers, it doesn't mean that Microsoft's platform is BETTER for the enterprise than Palm. Being an enterprise user that has used both platforms pretty extensively, I can tell you that what is most critical to me is a) reliability; b) good battery life; c) quick and efficient wireless (preferrably in a one-piece solution); d) handling of office documents; In my view, Palm far outshines PPC in all said areas. When I'm in an enterprise scenario (or even a consumer one for that matter), I need quick, reliable access to critical information. A dead battery doesn't allow for that. Neither does a device that doesn't handle memory well and may become sluggish beyond use due to too many open programs. I also want to be able to receive and send email almost instaneously or quickly get whatever info I need from the internet (I'm not interested in surfing). Lastly, I need to be able to edit a document on the handheld and have it reflected with the same formatting on my desktop (something I've found Docs to Go does much better than PPC).
2) In all due respect, neither you nor most of the rest of the free world have seen Smartphone 2002 utilized in the day to day real world. If MS was unable to produce a reliable, user-friendly PDA OS, what makes you think they can make one for cell phones. They have no history of developing a cell phone OS, yet they are going to jump right in and beat the likes of Nokia, Ericsson/Sony, or even Palm?
3) Keep in mind, I'm not trying to start a flame war here; however, you've been saying for a while that PPC would eventually eclipse Palm as the PDA OS of choice. That clearly hasn't happened. Now you're saying that it's because MS focused on the enterprise market (which incidentally I think you also said was going to lead to marketwide dominance). So now we're to believe that Smartphone will do what PPC couldn't? Maybe it's time to admit that Microsoft's mobile devices are strictly niche players? There's nothing wrong with that.
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