I really think that the Zune has a good chance of being a serious contender in the "non-iPod" mp3 player market, but it will be a long, long time before it will get close to taking over the iPod's spot (if ever). I thought I remebered MS saying during their CES keynote that the Zune was already #2 in the marketspace, but I really can't see that being true yet (or is it?).
Although, I must say MS lucked out with Apple just revealing the iPhone instead of an upgraded iPod. So this year the Zune may have a chance of catching up in the market for people just wanting a "standard" mp3 player. Had Apple announced just a touch-screen iPod instead of incorporating it with their iPhone, Microsoft would have been in real trouble.
So here's to someone getting drunk over this wager!