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Old 11-29-2004, 01:00 PM
Kent Pribbernow
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 911
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Default Analysts Say 23.5 Million iPods Will Be Sold By 2006, 100 Million By 2008

"Another well-respected Wall Street analyst has pointed to Apple's continued success with the iPod as drawing new customers to the Macintosh fold. Needham & Co.'s Charles Wolf has issued a 27-page note to his clients suggesting that Windows users could have 100 million iPods in hand by 2008. If only a small number of those users bought Macs, Mac sales could surge, according to Wolf. The iPod and iTunes Music Store will both lose marketshare due to increased competition, but the market for digital music players and digital music will grow dramatically in that time, according to a copy of the report obtained by Macworld UK. The report also strongly favors iPod and iTunes as the preferred way people will download music, stating that "there are no compelling economic reasons" for why Windows Media Audio would dominate the digital audio market unless Apple stops developing iTunes and the iPod."

Ok, the iPod is a great product and all, but this 27 page report is beaming with irrational exuberance. It is based entirely on the premise that iPod will REMAIN king of the hill. Current popularity aside, there is no evidence to say that Apple's fortunes will remain in play up to 2008, or that its competitors won't parallel the iPod's success as well at some point. Consumer electronics is a fickle business, and today's leaders can quickly become tomorrows losers.
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