09-10-2009, 03:08 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 20
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Some more thoughts...
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The camera on the iPod Nano is kind of neat, but HD is all the rage now - so is VGA video really going to be that useful?
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All the rage? How so? Are we seeing it put in several devices this summer/winter? Yes. Is it a rage in that consumers are demanding it? I don't see it yet. Home TV/theatre: yes. Recording, distribution, and playback on small devices or docked devices: Not seeing much demand and not seeing it being the determining factor in purchase choice even when it is available. I imagine quite a few will be seduced and could regret it when they start choking their device's capacity or try to upload... (wait, the Zune doesn't have a camera so it won't be uploading video to social networks anyway) ...download a purchase or sync in a rush. And a very small group that understands it, demands it, and can deal with its effect on capacity, network activity, and battery life -- but only a very, very small group -- not a raging hoard.
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The good news here is that by eliminating the 16 GB iPod Touch, Apple is forcing people to make a $100 price jump, and at retail that's a huge jump. 16 GB is enough storage for a lot of people, so the Zune HD has an opportunity to steal sales from people who want more than 8 GB, but aren't willing to spend $299.
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This is Apple's gambit that its lead in apps, ubiquity, Store, etc... justifies the $80 price difference. Even if Zune sales increase a thousand fold, that only takes 10% of the market away from Apple.. for ONE specific device at ONE specific price point.
Of course, still having a very-low-end (shuffle) and low-end-but-pretty-amazingly-featured (nano), and mid-range-high capacity offering (classic) means that Apple still dominates at essentially every price point (and, yes, will nudge many customers into either a cheaper model (8GB touches are gonna sell! Maybe surpass nanos.) and also quite a few into a more expensive, upsell device). (And I didn't even mention the iPhone itself.) And...
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I'm really surprised that Apple can do a 64 GB iPod Touch for $399, but I guess with their massive purchasing power on Flash memory they can do what no one else can do.
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It's not just that they are the single largest consumer of Flash. That higher price point 32GB has a nice margin that is feeding the 64GB model. Again, the 8GB is going to sell! For all the people that want 240GB, there are 10x many people who will say: "for $20 cheaper, I can live with the 8GB touch, with all of the advantages of the touch, over the HD."
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Sure, the 32 GB and 64 GB versions are faster (welcome to the world of platform fragmentation Apple!), but still no microphone, no camera, same screen resolution, no HD anything?
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Bet half the Zune owners upset by the abandonment of the 120 would have compromised with a 64GB Zune HD but now... maybe have to seek an alternative or wait a few months.
As for fragmentation, the sum of the iPod line has embraced fragmentation for quite a while. Pointing out iPhone/iPod touch fragmentation is silly in comparison to Microsoft's mobile strategy of supporting every device price point and form factor.
Even when it came to music player fragmentation, Microsoft managed three years of a device that only evolved generationally by two years... six years after the device had been introduced and 2 years after several platform/form factors had stabilized (Remember when 1.8" HDDs were a hot market? You know, even after 60% of all iPods were already Flash, but the stock prices of HDD manufacturers fluctuated on 1.8" HDD announcements? Now Apple is one of the only buyers.) And as soon as the first wave of real hardware fragmentation (when they couldn't just look and see what others had already done before them) hit the Zune team, Microsoft abandoned all other models rather than support the one to three year old devices.
So we'll see who does the better job of managing fragmentation. Fragmentation has to be embraced rather than scorned or mocked or feared if you want to move forward technologically -- you also have to compromise and backport when possible as a supplier and compromise and give up on some features as a consumer who may not upgrade with each new release.
Microsoft has a tiny and not really great history here (if only looking at music players) and a horrible strategy that stagnates growth looking towards the future (WinMo + Zune/XBox Marketplace strategy). What was it? Four, five feature updates? That justifies abandoning two devices, two and three years old at most, in their entirety? Just because you can't backport a couple of hardware features?
Also, I think I'll know if an app needs a video camera or not.
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I don't know what the numbers are, but given the way Apple ignores the Classic (hell, even the name tells you that...) I don't think they're big sellers. It seems like Apple is keeping it around to keep some people happy, but are there a lot of those people? I'm not so sure...
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Apple sold more than 22 million iPods last Christmas quarter. If the classic was 5% of that (maybe, probably not, but not far off either), in one quarter classic sales are in the range of all Zunes annually. Repeat: all Zunes annually. In one quarter. From an antiquated component that yields high margins. Keeping people happy or keep making money?
As for the naming (which I don't think matters to Apple's strategy beyond basic marketing), just imagine in two years or so, a decade after the first iPod, as Apple is fazing out classics and maybe other models, but celebrating the birthday of their iPod and... The iPod touch simply becomes the iPod. Can we be certain that Microsoft is still making a hardware device called the Zune for the holiday season 2012?
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The Zune software should work OK with Windows 7.  I imagine Apple will have Windows 7 compatibility working OK by October when Windows 7 officially comes out.
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Not only is iTunes 9 compatible with Windows7, it's faster, and supports new Windows7 features like the jumplists in the Task Bar; they just are not advertisizing compatibility with an OS that is not widely available on the consumer market yet.
Just some perspective.
Last edited by dp; 09-10-2009 at 04:57 AM..
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09-10-2009, 04:17 AM
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Neophyte
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 9
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Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
iTunes is in 23 countries. The Zune Marketplace is in one. Microsoft's US-centric approach with the Zune is maddening...I thought there was some light at the end of the tunnel when they launched the Zune in Canada last year, but we never got the Zune Marketplace here, and now the devices being sold here are being killed off. "Disaster" is a good word for how well the Zune launch went in Canada. Between the Zune HD being US-only at launch, and all of the IP-based geographic blocking madness that the Zune software and Web site does, it's like the Zune team is doing everything they can to alienate everyone in the world outside the US. More after the break.
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Has anyone heard what is the mindset at Microsoft in only offering the Marketplace to people residing in the US?
Of all the issues that come to my mind, I can't figure out how they can't overcome them.
1) Copyright - It seems that Apple has overcome any issues with copyright. Surely Microsoft's lawyers must be a smart as them.
2) Software challenges - C'mon. One of the biggest software companies in the world should be able to figure out how to make certain pieces of music or video or whatever available to one market region and perhaps not to another.
3) Financial - Microsoft seems to have no problem selling other stuff online to people outside of the United States.
4) Distribution agreements - Again something that Apple has been able to figure out. This is something that is neither hardware nor software in nature. If Microsoft only signed an agreement to distribute content in the United States, I'm sure that the content provider would not object to deriving revenue from other markets via Microsoft.
5) CRTC - Again something that Apple has been able to figure out.
6) Canadian Networks/Music Distributors - Again something that Apple has been able to figure out.
I've never seen an official statement from Microsoft explaining WHY Marketplace is not available in Canada. Sure we're only on market the size of California, but Apple has been able to find worth in an additional 22 countries as well as Canada, just what is up with Microsoft?
While I continue to read news articles about how Canada is a haven for illegal downloading, but as an owner of a Zune I have no other software alternative to legally (and conveniently) purchase items.
Sure, I suppose I could buy an iPod, but I could also push a hot poker into my eyes. (The following statement was made by a late '80's Apple fanboy. I owned an Apple II+ when it wasn't cool to own an Apple.)
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09-10-2009, 04:45 AM
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Developer & Designer, News Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
iTunes is in 23 countries. The Zune Marketplace is in one. Microsoft's US-centric approach with the Zune is maddening...I thought there was some light at the end of the tunnel when they launched the Zune in Canada last year, but we never got the Zune Marketplace here, and now the devices being sold here are being killed off. "Disaster" is a good word for how well the Zune launch went in Canada. Between the Zune HD being US-only at launch, and all of the IP-based geographic blocking madness that the Zune software and Web site does, it's like the Zune team is doing everything they can to alienate everyone in the world outside the US.
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Well, that's just it. Three years and still nothing. Does it really take that long to go global?
As impressive as the Zune HD hardware is, I'm after something that delivers an excellent all-in-one experience. As long as the Zune team insist on me importing the hardware, putting up with IP restrictions, futzing around with regional settings, and asking US-based friends to purchase Zune gift cards on my behalf, the Zune will never deliver that excellent all-in-one experience. It's little wonder that the iPod touch and iPhone are doing so well.
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09-10-2009, 06:50 AM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dp
Just some perspective.
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Heh. Wow. Perspective indeed. I think I'll just say thanks for sharing your many thoughts and leave it at that.  I will say though that if you look around the Web at other reactions to the Apple announcements today, you'll find many far more negative about it then I was.
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09-10-2009, 07:05 AM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djrudiak
Has anyone heard what is the mindset at Microsoft in only offering the Marketplace to people residing in the US? Of all the issues that come to my mind, I can't figure out how they can't overcome them.
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4) Distribution agreements - Again something that Apple has been able to figure out. This is something that is neither hardware nor software in nature. If Microsoft only signed an agreement to distribute content in the United States, I'm sure that the content provider would not object to deriving revenue from other markets via Microsoft.
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I agree completely (obviously) and I'm practically tearing my hair out of my head trying to figure out why Microsoft seems to be completely and totally inept a this. The only two things that comes to mind are this:
Apple was the first company to negotiate big, international music distribution deals, and way back then most of the music labels probably though Apple would fail, or at best only be mildly successful. So they said "Sure, 99 cents sounds fine as long as the bit rate sucks." Fast-forward, and iTunes is massively successful. We've watched as the record labels pressured Apple for variable pricing year after year, trying to re-assert control over their music. They finally got it. The labels don't like all the power that Apple has, so here's my theory: they're making it very hard, if not impossible, for the Zune guys to get the same sort of deal that Apple has. They're trying to exert control over the Zune deal in a way they wish they could have done with the Apple deal years ago.
Witness the $1 that Universal demanded Microsoft pay them for every Zune sold. We're talking POWER STRUGGLE here people. Maybe that's one reason why Microsoft can't accomplish now what Apple did years ago - the record labels are more aware of what they want to control.
Second reason? Maybe Microsoft feels that the Zune Pass is SO important that they can't/won't launch Zune Marketplace without it. It's quite integral to the Zune experience - many new Zune features rely on the customer having a Zune Pass - so maybe Microsoft isn't launching in new markets unless that market includes the Zune Pass. I think this is a bit silly - not everyone wants a Zune Pass - but maybe it's another reason?
These are just my theories.
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09-10-2009, 07:51 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 20
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more negative THAN you
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I will say though that if you look around the Web at other reactions to the Apple announcements today, you'll find many far more negative about it then I was.
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Jason, I thought your thoughts were very fair to the iPod and were rather astute. On the other hand, I think you are overly optimistic about the Zune's competitiveness and the strengths of its few advantages.
Most negative comments derive from solely an in-the-know techy, consumer perspective. I don't find it very relevant in the real marketplace. Most people buying a music player or mobile device in the next year aren't thinking dream features they haven't heard of; they are thinking: this has more than last year and is cheaper.
Hell, can you remember which of the 3-6 announcements/keynotes Apple has made each year over the last 8 years that was received by the majority of the press favorably? Has the marketplace reflected these "pannings" of "meh, boring" announcements?
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09-10-2009, 02:49 PM
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Oracle
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 984
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Steve Jobs on why there is no camera on the Touch (from NYTimes):
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�Originally, we weren�t exactly sure how to market the Touch. Was it an iPhone without the phone? Was it a pocket computer? What happened was, what customers told us was, they started to see it as a game machine,� he said. �We started to market it that way, and it just took off. And now what we really see is it�s the lowest-cost way to the App Store, and that�s the big draw. So what we were focused on is just reducing the price to $199. We don�t need to add new stuff. We need to get the price down where everyone can afford it.�
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So, I think that I was right; they were more concerned this year with getting the Touch at the right price/storage levels than adding features like a camera or a microphone, and most of their consumers seem to care more about simple gaming apps than they do about features. And keeping the same 8GB model meant that there would be a feature difference between the 8 GB and the 32 and 64, maybe something that they did not want.
Also:
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I also asked him why the Nano can record video, but can�t snap still photos. That reason, he said, is technical: the sensors you need to record video are extremely thin these days�thin enough to fit into the wafer-thin Nano. But the ones with enough resolution for stills, especially with autofocus (like the sensor in the iPhone), are much too thick to cram into a player that�s only .02 inches thick.
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So they'd rather have a thin, video Nano than a thicker one that can also shoot still photos. Interesting. (Still, my 4G Nano makes a flash Zune look like a thick slab by comparison, so he's probably right about keeping it as thin as the 4G.)
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09-10-2009, 07:53 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 20
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Watched Folders!
Bam! They have added watched folders:
http://lifehacker.com/5356619/itunes...-add-new-music
Well, since it isn't advertised and it's one specific folder, this isn't the true feature delivered yet -- apparently just a quiet test. However, with it implemented even in only one specific folder, there are a million ways to get this now to work as anyway could expect monitored folders to work with a few small tweaks.
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09-10-2009, 09:05 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundMix
The 160GB Ipod is going to be a major problem for Zune. It even offers more space than the now defunct 120GB Zune.
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Am I the only one that remembers that the 120 GB classic replaced the 160 GB classic and that Apple is just bringing back something it had previously killed?
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XBox 360 S, 16GB iPhone 4S, iPod Classic 160 GB, Dell Inspiron Mini 1018; Macs: Mac Mini 2.4 GHz 6 GB RAM; Macbook 2.0 GHz 3 GB RAM; MacBook Air 11", 24" Cinema Display
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09-10-2009, 09:08 PM
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Thinker
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianchris
My biggest disapointment? That iTunes 9 isn't officially compatible with Windows 7. I know eventually it will be, but I thought they were going to introduce that official compatability with 9.0.
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It's not? I have it loaded on my netbook running Windows 7 RC and haven't noticed any problems. Of course, I don't sync any of my iPods or my iPhone with my netbook either, so maybe that's the issue.
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XBox 360 S, 16GB iPhone 4S, iPod Classic 160 GB, Dell Inspiron Mini 1018; Macs: Mac Mini 2.4 GHz 6 GB RAM; Macbook 2.0 GHz 3 GB RAM; MacBook Air 11", 24" Cinema Display
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Linear Mode
