01-03-2004, 02:14 AM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Two Steps Foward, Two Steps Back: Bob's Predictions for 2004
"As promised last week, here are my predictions for 2004. But first, let's take a look back at how well I did in 2003. Years ago, a reader complained that I didn't follow up on my prognostications, and I realized he was right. People in my position make bold predictions and then hope they are forgotten. Ever since then, I've fessed-up to what I got right and wrong, and I'm probably still the only columnist anywhere who does so.
A year ago, I wrote that HP/Compaq would continue its long slide to oblivion, and if you look underneath the corporate numbers, you'll see I was correct. The promised synergies have been minimal, growth nonexistent, and the companies are several billion dollars behind where they would have been had they remained separate.
I predicted that Dell would continue to grow at the expense of its competitors, and would become by far the largest maker of personal computers. I was right...."
Cringely's article doesn't delve into the PDA world, but it makes for an interesting read anyway. Go check it out!
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