12-02-2006, 06:00 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 12
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Quick Reminder: The iPod is 5 Years Old
Since the Zune launched exactly two weeks ago, people left and right have been comparing it to the iPod. People are saying, "Why doesn't the Zune have as many features/accessories/versions/users/whatever as the iPod?" The answer is very simple: the iPod has a 5-year head start.
I have gone ahead and dug up the article on Slashdot that announced the release of the iPod. When the iPod was released, it had a measly 5 GBs of storage, 10 hours of life, and was pretty big. The word accessory had been unheard of. The iPod was labeled a total dud. Can you say deja vu?
Sure, the Zune is pretty big. Sure, it has some flaws. Sure, it may be getting outsold by iPod chargers. But hey, it is a first generation product, and I am really losing faith in any tech reporter who labels a product a loser because it doesn't beat out the 5-year old champ in a measly two weeks.
What does everyone think?
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12-02-2006, 07:38 AM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 242
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I'm down that that.
People are far too quick to judge everything and anything. Someone is always critisizing Microsoft for something, but they're still very much alive and kicking.
I'm an early adopter of the Zune and overall its a great device. I have no problem believing that Microsoft will make it so much better in the future.
Matt.
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12-02-2006, 08:30 AM
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Sage
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 797
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I think there are plenty of good arguments to make for a wait and see atitude, but that's the worst of them.
Yes the iPod had a 5 year lead, and that's exactly why the Zune should be more than it is.
5 years ago, when Apple created the iPod, there wasn't a mass-market appeal for MP3 players. That market now exists, and people are much more informed about what an MP3 actually is. Apple didn't just enter the market 5 years ago, they pretty much created it.
The Zune is a 1st generation device in a land where manufacturers have been producing devices for years. Do I expect the Zune to be perfect? Of course not, but to argue that it's less than it could be simply because it hasn't been around 5 years is just the wrong argument to make, plain and simple.
Let's put it another way. Suppose I come out with a car tomorrow, and I don't put air conditioning in it. Can I make the argument that it's my first car? Obviously that's a weak argument when every other car does have it. I'm entering a market where cars have air conditioners, therefore I need to put air conditioning into mine. It really is that simple.
The Zune will grow and mature and by no means is this the last one, but let's not toss weak excuses up and all pat ourselves on the back for coming up with them.
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12-02-2006, 10:52 AM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 52
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I don't think that it's a good argument either.
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it had a measly 5 GBs of storage, 10 hours of life, and was pretty big.
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That's right, but that was back in 2001. Back then the iPod was a revolution in size, capacity and design. HDD-based players were virtually unknown, especially at such a small size. Sure, compared to today's players it's only got 5GB of space and it's pretty big, but in 2001 it was an amazing technological feat.
It was a revolution, even if sales at the beginning were modest. I don't see that from the first generation Zune.
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12-02-2006, 06:51 PM
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Ponderer
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 59
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It depends on how you look at it... if people are saying buy an iPod now over a Zune, then I think that's justified. Being in the market now, you're looking at what's available now regardless of which generation it is. It is similar to people giving the PS3 an easy time because it doesn't look as good as 2nd gen Xbox 360 games.
But, if people are writing off the future of the Zune platform, that's clearly shortsighted. In interviews it has been mentioned that the entire team came together and went from concept to reality (launched) in a year (!). That is impressive IMO. So, maybe the real question is: will the Zune team be able to improve and innovate quicker than the iPod team that has grown relatively stagnant.
Of course, there are those who argue that they should have given it more time until they had something better to launch, but I disagree with that. Despite the reviews there are plenty of people out there happy with their Zunes. There is a lot to be said for getting your product out there, both for brand purposes and getting many thousands of users for validation and feedback which is impossible to achieve without launching a real product.
For the record, I am waiting to see what 2007 holds for next-gen Zune and competitors since my Rio still has some life. 
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12-03-2006, 03:33 AM
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Mystic
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,608
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Drawing comparisons to a 5 year old device that was at the time revolutionary as a basis to justify the Zunes shortcomings? Ok . . . little weak though IMO. No one to date has given a reasonable explanation for the Zunes initial offering. Jason and others point to the short product cycle but really is that a viable excuse? What did MS have to lose by waiting a few more months to get it right the 1st time? The iPod line is already dominant so were not talking about marketshare. Recoup R&D ? Not buying that either. MS has shown that it's willing to lose money on something it believes in in the short term.
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12-03-2006, 05:32 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent M Ferrari
Yes the iPod had a 5 year lead, and that's exactly why the Zune should be more than it is.
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You nailed it on the head. Not only that, Microsoft has had PlaysForSure partners. They've been working with these guys designing players. So, in that sense, the Zune is far from first generation -- especially the desktop software, which is at least second-generation, as WMP10 was the first to support Janus, and Zune is clearly derived from WMP11. So I don't buy this "first generation" argument.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarxMarvelous
But, if people are writing off the future of the Zune platform, that's clearly shortsighted. In interviews it has been mentioned that the entire team came together and went from concept to reality (launched) in a year (!). That is impressive IMO. So, maybe the real question is: will the Zune team be able to improve and innovate quicker than the iPod team that has grown relatively stagnant.
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That's a question largely for industry pundits who seem to have nothing better to do than to sit around and make inaccurate analyses of the market. From the consumer standpoint, they should judge based on what they have now. If Microsoft came out and said "hey, the next firmware will have X,Y,Z," then you could make a purchasing decision on it. But, since that hasn't happened, it's dangerous to assume the platform will have certain things.
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Despite the reviews there are plenty of people out there happy with their Zunes.
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Actually, we don't know that yet.  Time will tell what "plenty" means and what "happy" means. I do hope it sells well enough that Microsoft keeps on trying, but at the same time not well enough so that Microsoft gets the message they need to keep on their toes.
--janak
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12-02-2006, 02:17 PM
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Pupil
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent M Ferrari
The Zune is a 1st generation device in a land where manufacturers have been producing devices for years. Do I expect the Zune to be perfect? Of course not, but to argue that it's less than it could be simply because it hasn't been around 5 years is just the wrong argument to make, plain and simple.
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A fair assessment, I think. But frankly, so far I don't have any such issues with my Zune hardware. It's true that it's not the groundbreaking design that would've knocked the iPod and all the others off their feet, but is it reasonable to think that any such beast short of a fully convergent beast (DAP/phone/PDA/GPS/Swiss Army Knife/TV remote/hairbrush/your desire here) exists? Particularly at the price point that the Zune currently resides in?
I do think MSFT should've been much more aggressive in its pricing considering how iconoclastic and mammoth the iPod culture is already. But IMO the Zune itself as it stands is easily the equal of my 5.5G iPod once all the third-party accessories are taken away, even if it can't pretend to be a PDA or try to mimic being a half-baked Gameboy.
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12-03-2006, 05:38 AM
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Pupil
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincent M Ferrari
I think there are plenty of good arguments to make for a wait and see atitude, but that's the worst of them.
Yes the iPod had a 5 year lead, and that's exactly why the Zune should be more than it is.
5 years ago, when Apple created the iPod, there wasn't a mass-market appeal for MP3 players. That market now exists, and people are much more informed about what an MP3 actually is. Apple didn't just enter the market 5 years ago, they pretty much created it.
The Zune is a 1st generation device in a land where manufacturers have been producing devices for years. Do I expect the Zune to be perfect? Of course not, but to argue that it's less than it could be simply because it hasn't been around 5 years is just the wrong argument to make, plain and simple.
Let's put it another way. Suppose I come out with a car tomorrow, and I don't put air conditioning in it. Can I make the argument that it's my first car? Obviously that's a weak argument when every other car does have it. I'm entering a market where cars have air conditioners, therefore I need to put air conditioning into mine. It really is that simple.
The Zune will grow and mature and by no means is this the last one, but let's not toss weak excuses up and all pat ourselves on the back for coming up with them.
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Vincent,
I'm a bit shocked as to why you are being so aggressive. I'm sorry if I bothered you in any way. All I am saying is that the Zune is a first generation product, and that no one should expect it to be perfect or even have a chance to dethrone the iPod.
The whole car anomaly is very different. Air conditioning in a car is a standard feature. The Zune has all the standard features down. Heated seats in a car is an extra feature, just likes a calendar on an PMP is an extra feature.
It has been made clear by the Zune team that the first generation is the building block; from there they will add calendars, etc. and they will make these features available through free upgrades, kind of like car manufactures who charge people for upgrades.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sage
I don't think that it's a good argument either.
That's right, but that was back in 2001. Back then the iPod was a revolution in size, capacity and design. HDD-based players were virtually unknown, especially at such a small size. Sure, compared to today's players it's only got 5GB of space and it's pretty big, but in 2001 it was an amazing technological feat.
It was a revolution, even if sales at the beginning were modest. I don't see that from the first generation Zune.
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Sage,
I'm sorry, I agree with you, 5 GB back then must have been quite a feat. The thing about the Zune is that it has entered an extremely saturated market. If you were to show the Zune to the average consumer who already has an MP3 player and asked them if they would purchase one right now, they would probably say no. Why? Because they already have a perfectly good player that will last them at least a few more years.
If the Zune was released 5 years ago with 5 GB etc. and the iPod was released on November 14th, the Zune would the be the champion and the iPod would be playing catchup. Same scenario with Rio, Creative, etc. It's not just a matter of features, its a matter of demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarxMarvelous
It depends on how you look at it... if people are saying buy an iPod now over a Zune, then I think that's justified. Being in the market now, you're looking at what's available now regardless of which generation it is. It is similar to people giving the PS3 an easy time because it doesn't look as good as 2nd gen Xbox 360 games.
But, if people are writing off the future of the Zune platform, that's clearly shortsighted. In interviews it has been mentioned that the entire team came together and went from concept to reality (launched) in a year (!). That is impressive IMO. So, maybe the real question is: will the Zune team be able to improve and innovate quicker than the iPod team that has grown relatively stagnant.
Of course, there are those who argue that they should have given it more time until they had something better to launch, but I disagree with that. Despite the reviews there are plenty of people out there happy with their Zunes. There is a lot to be said for getting your product out there, both for brand purposes and getting many thousands of users for validation and feedback which is impossible to achieve without launching a real product.
For the record, I am waiting to see what 2007 holds for next-gen Zune and competitors since my Rio still has some life. |
Marx,
You're a good example of what I mean. If you didn't have a player right now and wanted to get one soon, you'd look at a Zune, correct? However, you have perfectly good Rio and you want to milk every last day out of it before you trash it. Lots of people are in the exact same position as you, and its no ones fault.
Quote:
Originally Posted by byteme
Drawing comparisons to a 5 year old device that was at the time revolutionary as a basis to justify the Zunes shortcomings? Ok . . . little weak though IMO. No one to date has given a reasonable explanation for the Zunes initial offering. Jason and others point to the short product cycle but really is that a viable excuse? What did MS have to lose by waiting a few more months to get it right the 1st time? The iPod line is already dominant so were not talking about marketshare. Recoup R&D ? Not buying that either. MS has shown that it's willing to lose money on something it believes in in the short term.
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ByteMe,
I didn't mean it like that; I meant that back then, people were way too quick to judge a device with tons of potential, and I think this is happening again. Also, MS wanted to launch the Zune ASAP to penetrate some of the holiday market and to have a better system ready by this time next year.
- Michael Boutros
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12-03-2006, 06:06 AM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Boutros
If the Zune was released 5 years ago with 5 GB etc. and the iPod was released on November 14th, the Zune would the be the champion and the iPod would be playing catchup. Same scenario with Rio, Creative, etc. It's not just a matter of features, its a matter of demand.
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This is a difficult hypothetical. Despite conventional thinking, the iPod was certainly not the first hard drive-based player on the market. Compaq deserves credit for that one, and Creative's Nomad Jukebox was the first "mainstream" unit. Looking at those units now... if the iPod wasn't released, I don't think the Zune would have been, either. The iPod did pioneer a successful form factor for hard drives.
--janak
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