Will Windows Phone 7 Save Microsoft's Mobile Plans?

[Ed Hansberry]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20100719/tc_pcworld/canwindowsphone7savemicrosoftsmobilebacon_1' target='_blank'>http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/201...tsmobilebacon_1</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Windows Phone 7 is inching closer to market. Microsoft has sent the operating system for its brand of mobile phones to the labs of carriers for testing, as well as to developers of applications for the phones, which are expected to reach the market in time for holiday shoppers"</em></p><p>I personally don't think the timing is the biggest issue. I think they will hit their 2010 holiday season deadline. The question is, will it be ready? The iPhone is now three years old and on its 4th version. Android is approaching two years old and is nearing its third major release and has had half a dozen minor releases since the G1 on T-Mobile launched the platform in the US. Despite the name, this is really Windows Phone 1. Will it have what it takes to make a statement in the marketplace?</p>

[randalllewis]

Will it have what it takes to make a statement in the marketplace?



Well, I believe it will. I think this UI is so different and yet instantly intuitive that it will be popular once people get to see it in action. As I always say, marketing will be a part of the success and if you don't think that is the case- just try counting the number of ads you see for the iPhone or Android on a given night of television, in print, on line, and in public places. Microsoft will need to devote as much attention to this aspect of relaunching the OS as they have to its design and development.

I don't buy the lack of multi-tasking or cut and paste will doom the phone argument. I know these features are important to some users, but I doubt that the vast majority of iPhone users, for example, even know if their model can multi-task or not.

I've watched several video reviews of the technical preview today and I particularly liked Matthew Miller's at ZD Net. I also noticed that as he scrolled through his people hub on the phone that Jason Dunn's name showed up as one of his contacts. You guys working together on something?

[Fritzly]

Being a MS shareholder I say unfortunately but my opinion is that it will not.
MS copied the Apple model: a severely locked down device.... and missing features in V1.

If I liked the Apple model I would be using Apple products; I do not like it and I use MS products... When MS plays as Apple I I ditch MS as well.....

[Eriq Cook]

Being a MS shareholder I say unfortunately but my opinion is that it will not.
MS copied the Apple model: a severely locked down device.... and missing features in V1.

If I liked the Apple model I would be using Apple products; I do not like it and I use MS products... When MS plays as Apple I I ditch MS as well.....

I completely agree. Microsoft Mobile is on life support right now. I believe that if Microsoft is TRULY dedicated to making the platform better day-by-day, it will be ok. But Microsoft needs to release updates more than every 8-12 months.

I think it was somewhat foolish for MS to follow after Apple's steps in some areas it seems, as my love/support for Windows Mobile was based on the fact that it didn't act like an Apple product. And the missing features (read my previous post (http://forums.thoughtsmedia.com/f397/massive-review-windows-phone-7-technical-preview-98969.html)) that are available TODAY in Windows Mobile 6.x will certainly push power users away, IMO.

[randalllewis]

Being a MS shareholder I say unfortunately but my opinion is that it will not.
MS copied the Apple model: a severely locked down device.... and missing features in V1.

If I liked the Apple model I would be using Apple products; I do not like it and I use MS products... When MS plays as Apple I I ditch MS as well.....


I too am a Microsoft shareholder and I wouldn't suggest that fact conveys some special standing on my opinions....they are just my opinions.

But if Microsoft or Apple for that matter were making devices for those of us who hang around tech blogs, they wouldn't sell many phones and the ones they did sell would certainly have different features. People on tech blogs serve mainly as early adopters and to some extent opinion shapers. For that reason, I am sure Microsoft is paying attention to the concerns about multi-tasking and cut and paste. They have said they are paying attention, and that they are working on solutions that just won't be ready at launch.

I doubt there would be any value to postponing the launch of WP7 until those features were ready because by then there would be something else in iOS that tech types would want to see before Windows Phone came out.

As for Microsoft using the Apple model: can you name a model more successful that they should have used? Once the decision to re-boot was made, they had to approach the next version of the OS in a radically different way. I am glad they did and I think they will be glad they did too in a few months.

[BBF]

But if Microsoft or Apple for that matter were making devices for those of us who hang around tech blogs, they wouldn't sell many phones and the ones they did sell would certainly have different features. People on tech blogs serve mainly as early adopters and to some extent opinion shapers.

...

I doubt there would be any value to postponing the launch of WP7 until those features were ready because by then there would be something else in iOS that tech types would want to see before Windows Phone came out.

As for Microsoft using the Apple model: can you name a model more successful that they should have used? Once the decision to re-boot was made, they had to approach the next version of the OS in a radically different way. I am glad they did and I think they will be glad they did too in a few months.

The problem is, if people wanted an iPhone, they would get an iPhone, not a WP7 phone. If one is supposed to dethrone the entrenched competition, one has to beat the competition, not just copy the competition from last generation. People have argued that even the iPhone and Android didn't get it all right in the first release... but they fail to take into account that the iPhone v.1 didn't have to compete against iPhone v.4, or Android v.2. Yep, MS may get in right by V.3, but by then, Apple will have released iOS v.6.

Given your line of thought, for the average phone user, what does WP7 give them that Apple already doesn't with the iPhone 4?

Are WP7 phones more trendy? No.
Do they have more apps available from major businesses like every bank, restaurant, you name it chain on the internet? No.
Do they have a Retina screen? No, not that hi-rez.
Do they have a working front facing camera? No.
Does it have a subscription music service? Yes... but look how well that worked for the ZuneHD vs. the iPod Touch... nobody cares.
Does it have xbox live integration? Yes, but average phone users aren't Xbox Live gamers... too bad that xbox live subscribers are also geeky, so already own iPhones, Blackberries or Android phones.

So tell me again why an average phone user should choose a WP7 phone over an iPhone or Android phone?

[Fritzly]

I too am a Microsoft shareholder and I wouldn't suggest that fact conveys some special standing on my opinions....they are just my opinions.



As for Microsoft using the Apple model: can you name a model more successful that they should have used? Once the decision to re-boot was made, they had to approach the next version of the OS in a radically different way. I am glad they did and I think they will be glad they did too in a few months.

The fact that I am a MS shareholders does not affect my opinion; I am simply unhappy that WP7 will not boost the value of my holdings. Two very different things.

Apple is indeed succesfull; and studying it MS should have done the same thing Apple did: come out with something completely different, exactly as Apple did with the first generation iPhone; btw a device that MS top management dismissed as a joke. Now several years down the road the same "top managers" that laughed about the iPhone are launching a device that imitate, years after, the first version of it?

A great business plan indeed.

[randalllewis]

Given your line of thought, for the average phone user, what does WP7 give them that Apple already doesn't with the iPhone 4?

Are WP7 phones more trendy? No.
Do they have more apps available from major businesses like every bank, restaurant, you name it chain on the internet? No.
Do they have a Retina screen? No, not that hi-rez.
Do they have a working front facing camera? No.
Does it have a subscription music service? Yes... but look how well that worked for the ZuneHD vs. the iPod Touch... nobody cares.
Does it have xbox live integration? Yes, but average phone users aren't Xbox Live gamers... too bad that xbox live subscribers are also geeky, so already own iPhones, Blackberries or Android phones.

So tell me again why an average phone user should choose a WP7 phone over an iPhone or Android phone?

Let's see, what does WP7 offer to a potential smartphone buyer that the iPhone doesn't?

I wouldn't presume to determine what is or is not trendy, particularly because I haven't seen any actual WP7 models yet. Have you? By the way, just what is trendy?
Of course WP7 wont have as many apps available at launch as the iPhone does after 3 plus years, but how many apps were available for the iPhone on its launch?
No, the WP7 won't have retina screen, but then neither do most of the iPhones that have been sold to date.
I don't know how many, if any, WP7 phones will have front facing cameras and neither do you. It is a nice feature and my Windows Mobile 6.1 phone has one that I've never used.
Subscription music may not appeal to you, but I like having the choice...within the same OS...of buying my music or subscribing to it.
Xbox Live integration is a unique feature for WP7 and I wouldn't presume to know that all 25 million Live members are geeks who already own iPhones or Androids. I'm a Live member and I don't own either.
Then there are the appealing features you didn't mention. Office is a pretty significant app that the others don't offer. The comprehensive photos hub certainly appears to be a superior approach to dealing with photos than any other OS has developed to date.

It is really OK for you to be a happy camper with the iPhone or Google or RIM or Symbian or whatever you have. I didn't dis your choice of mobile OS. Microsoft obviously couldn't make an OS that would appeal to you, but as for me, I think it sure is nice to have a choice.

[Fritzly]

Trying to determine what is trendy.................. is like trying to determine the sex of the Angels.........

"Funbands" are trendy nowadays, why? No idea but my daughter is crazy for them, as well as the overhelming majority of the kids in her school.
Again why? What made a piece of plastic, shaped like an animal or whatever, that cost a fraction of a cent and sell with at least a 1000% markup trendy?

I have no clue ........... but I would love to be the one who thought about because by now I would be millionaire.

[BBF]

Let's see, what does WP7 offer to a potential smartphone buyer that the iPhone doesn't?


Of course WP7 wont have as many apps available at launch as the iPhone does after 3 plus years, but how many apps were available for the iPhone on its launch?
No, the WP7 won't have retina screen, but then neither do most of the iPhones that have been sold to date.
I don't know how many, if any, WP7 phones will have front facing cameras and neither do you. It is a nice feature and my Windows Mobile 6.1 phone has one that I've never used.


Did you even *bother* to read my post. Why do you insist on comparing WP7 to 3 year old iPhones? WP7 V.1 does not have to compete against the iPhone 1, 3g nor 3gs, it has to compete against the iPhone 4. Yep, average phone users are really going to cross-shop a new WP7 V.1 phone against a 3 year old used iPhone V.1. :rolleyes:

Let's see, the iPhone 3gs with a low res screen outsold any single windows mobile phone released in the same time frame and continued to increase Apple's smartphone market share while WM6's share declined, so I wonder what an iPhone with the highest resolution / pixel density screen in any phone available so far will do... oops, I don't have to, they've already sold 1.4 million iPhone 4's, in spite of a seriously flawed antenna design... so what's your point again for stating that most iPhones sold to date have low-res screens?

There will be no front facing camera support on the initial release of WP7. The front facing camera in the WP7 Tech Preview phones are not functional.

I was trying to prove a point that "average" users won't care about what WP7 has to offer because an existing product already on the market from the leading "trendy" phone maker, the iPhone 4, already has WP7 beat on most counts and whatever the iPhone 4 doesn't have don't seem to be huge enough to drive customers to WP7 phones.

Oh, BTW, I've never owned an apple product in my LIFE. I have however, owned 6 windows mobile phones of which the Touch Pro2 is my latest one. I will not "upgrade" to WP7 because if I wanted an "iPhone like locked down system", I would have *bought* and iPhone. Why go for the flawed clone when one can get the better supported original? And that's my point.

[virain]

IMHO, it is useless to compare WP4 to any iPhone at this time. Even recent previews are interesting reading, I wouldn't make any serious arguments at this time. It doesn't have multitask , but from what I've seen native apps will work at a back ground. So if I can have a conversation and follow GPS at the same time, it's good enough for me. And what are those "smart links" that should substitute for cut/paste? We have to see how well will it work. So, I understand it 's been "trendy" to trash MS products for a while, kinda trashing Bush, even couple years later, but our new president is not perfect either , although very popular like iPhone. So, "miss windows phone yet?" Right, Jason?

[randalllewis]

BBF wrote: Did you even *bother* to read my post.


It's no bother at all to read your posts. Your point seems to be that because Microsoft isn't producing in its first generation of a revamped mobile OS what Apple has produced in its fourth generation that customers of smartphones will simply reject Microsoft's offering. I don't buy that. Not one bit. When you take away that part of the Apple market that would buy anything the company puts its name on, the rest of the customers (and that is still a large number) are still potential future customers for Windows Phone. Not every iPhone v1 or v2 customer will upgrade to v4. Some will move to Verizon or T-Mobile which WP7 will allow them to do. Others will be drawn to the Office or Xbox integration. iPhone 4 buyers are not going to be WP7 customers, but to date that is only about 1.4 million people. There are millions more expected to move from Symbian or other OS's as the smartphone market explodes in the next few years.

Trashing Microsoft is a popular pasttime on tech blogs, but to the vast majority of the potential phone market, Microsoft is still a quality brand and what we've seen of WP7 will be compelling for a variety of different reasons to a lot of them.

[Jason Dunn]

I've watched several video reviews of the technical preview today and I particularly liked Matthew Miller's at ZD Net. I also noticed that as he scrolled through his people hub on the phone that Jason Dunn's name showed up as one of his contacts. You guys working together on something?

Nope, Matt's just an industry friend of mine. :)