30 million Windows Phone 7 Devices Sold by the End of 2011? Microsoft says Yes

[Pete Paxton]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/27/30-million-windows-phone-7-devices-sold-by-the-end-2011-microso/' target='_blank'>http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/27/...d-2011-microso/</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"To state the obvious, that's pretty ambitious any way you slice it -- especially considering that the first Windows Phone 7 devices are still quite a few months away from hitting the market, giving Microsoft just over a year to reach that mark."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/wpt/auto/1275024322.usr11642.jpg" style="border: 1px solid #d2d2bb;" /></p><p>So I took 30 million and divided it by 12 and then multiplied it by 5. That comes out to 12.5 million Windows Phone 7 devices sold by May 2011.&nbsp; Is this a wild pipe dream or do you actually think they'll sell that many? To be honest, I laughed at this optimistic projection. Just seems like an awful lot of devices but who knows, maybe it'll be that good. Maybe it will be so cool and innovative - everyone will want one. Do you think they'll sell 30 million by the end of next year?</p>

[doogald]

Assuming that they do not pay huge market development fees to get the carriers to sell phones for much less than competing iPhones and Androids, and assuming that they are as unsuccessful getting the carriers to set voice and data plans less than other smartphones as they were with the Kin with Verizon Wireless, I think that they set an overambitious goal.

If this is true, here's what I think: rather than just fire Robbie Bach's replacement if they do not meet this goal, I would love to see Ballmer put his neck on the line and pledge that they will meet this goal or he will resign. This looks a lot like a goal set from above, rather than one set by that division.

Time will tell, though.

[kerrins]

I've seen commercials for the iPhone, the Droid and Blackberry. I cannot recall a single commercial for a Windows 7 phone. If they exist, it's clearly not holding my interest. Most of us can already get to our social network now, so while the Win7 integration may be better it's not earth shattering. MS has managed to alienate it's most ardent supporters (me being one of them.) How do you eliminate cut and paste (there's a sarcasm symbol but I don't have rights to use it.) MS doesn't have passionate followers like Apple does. MS can do many things well, and as I mentioned I was definitely a supporter of their products, but I think Win7 is going in the wrong direction to get much more support.

[alese]

Assuming that they do not pay huge market development fees to get the carriers to sell phones for much less than competing iPhones and Androids, and assuming that they are as unsuccessful getting the carriers to set voice and data plans less than other smartphones as they were with the Kin with Verizon Wireless, I think that they set an overambitious goal.

If this is true, here's what I think: rather than just fire Robbie Bach's replacement if they do not meet this goal, I would love to see Ballmer put his neck on the line and pledge that they will meet this goal or he will resign. This looks a lot like a goal set from above, rather than one set by that division.

Time will tell, though.

I don't think they can sell even half of that number next year, but on the other hand, your idea is a good one. Even though WP7 probably won't be such hit as Microsoft would like, if they get rid of Balmer in the process that could be good for them.

[Stinger]

If you look at 30 million as a percentage of projected smartphone market for 2011, it's a tiny figure. It's no more than 5-7% of the market.

Anything less than 5% and Microsoft will have failed. 30 million isn't ambitious at all. It's the bare minimum needed to remain relevant.

[TheBigCheese]

30 million? Oh man! If they sell 1 million, I'd be very surprised. With a low feature set compared with the competition and much fewer apps (my prediction), there will be nothing to recommend it.

Microsoft has already been beaten. Ballmer must have heard the expression "its all over but the shouting" because he does a lot of shouting but little else. Microsoft's market value is half what it was before he took over and now Apple is #1 tech company in that category. If Microsoft has been working on the operating system for how many years and still can not implement cut-and-paste or multitasking, how can they expect to compete with Apple and Android?

[TheBigCheese]

If you look at 30 million as a percentage of projected smartphone market for 2011, it's a tiny figure. It's no more than 5-7% of the market.

Anything less than 5% and Microsoft will have failed. 30 million isn't ambitious at all. It's the bare minimum needed to remain relevant.

You're predicting 600 million smartphones sold in 2011? That's pretty incredible IMO in light of the 80 million projected to be sold in 2010. I don't think that there are that many people in the world able to afford a smartphone and data plan!