BusinessWeek: Is Windows Phone Making A Comeback?

[Jon Westfall]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt-tb.cgi/16576.1285113621' target='_blank'>http://blogs.businessweek.com/mt/mt...6576.1285113621</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Developers' interest in Microsoft's Windows Phone software for smartphone has risen sharply, since the Redmond giant introduced a new version of the mobile operating system on Feb. 15, according to new survey data from Appcelerator, which offers tools that help programmers create apps. Between January and March, developers' interest in creating games, calendars and other applications for Windows Phone has nearly tripled from 13% to 34%, according to Appcelerator's survey of more than 1,000 developers that was released on March 31. Another major gainer: the BlackBerry, which has seen a doubling of developer interest in the same period, to 43%."</em></p><p>Late last week, as the world preparred itself for the April Fools onslaught, BusinessWeek published a column speculating that Windows Phone has turned itself around and may be making a comeback. Obviously this isn't news to us, however it does mean that mainstream has started to see it as a serious contender (rather than a joke). What do you think - in a year will we be buzzing about Windows while recalling the decline of the iPhone and the odd blip that was Android?</p>

[efjay]

What do you think - in a year will we be buzzing about Windows while recalling the decline of the iPhone and the odd blip that was Android?</p>

It will be a long time before that happens, if it ever does.

[doogald]

I'd say that only time will tell. My guess is that WP7 will not steal much share from the iPhone, and it may depend on how much (and how well) Microsoft markets the devices. Verizon spent a ton on Droid marketing, and it's seemed to work (though, again, not at the expense of the iPhone so much as WM and Palm.) Will Microsoft spend a lot, and do so effectively? (I think their current WM ads are pretty ineffective, in a fairly creepy way.)

There are a lot of non-smartphone people out there right now. There will be a number of people coming off contracts for other devices. There can always be a lot of change. I think that WP7 looks intriguing, though I suspect it will be more so in late 2011, when Microsoft has a chance to add the missing cut/copy/paste features and the app market has broadened. But, based on comments read on these forums, I'd think that WP7 isn't going to be retaining near 100% of their existing WM6 share, so they will need to gain market share somewhere else. Also, even 6 months is a long time. We are likely to see a new iPhone handset by then, and a new iPhone OS, as well as a number of Android new handsets and upgrades. Microsoft will need to be swifter than they have been in the past if they wish to fully compete in this space.

[benjimen]

They've waited far to long to become any sort of standard. I kinda doubt we'll be seeing things like 'Windows Phone Interface Ports' in things like car stereos or home entertainment systems. Stuff like that is already commonplace for iPhones/iPods.

They let themselves become 'your grandfather's smartphone' and their desparate attempt at a return to relevance is to carbon-copy exactly the iPhone business model. This pretty much turns them into the 'imitation' and cements the iPhone into the 'original' categories.

They won't close up shop though, there's plenty of market share left over for fringe-devices, of which the ZunePhone product line will be included...

[heliod]

I believe it depends.

The iPhone is what it is mainly because the application shop is very successful. But if you look deeply at it, 90% of what you have there are games for retarded.

This is the opposite way that I would personally like to see it going (I don't have patience for computer games), but I believe that MS can make it a great device for online gaming, and then it can become a marketshare leader. It has the music and video that the iphone has, a good browser, so in these areas it can play with some disadvantage, but online gaming is an area that MS is way ahead of Apple (Apple is not there at all), and making this the ultimate Mobile XBox device would be an advantage very hard to compete with.

[Eriq Cook]

While the Business Week link currently shows a

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page error (:)) I predict that the Windows Phone platform will make a comeback about June 2011. By then, Microsoft should be "caught up" with specific lacking features (ah hem, copy/paste) and the platform will have been out for more than six months.

Although we haven't seen the next gen iPhone 4.0 or Android operating systems yet, I think that WP7 will be different enough and more consumer (non-business) friendly to give the competition a good run for their money.

With that said, personally I think I'll stick to the "Classic" platform until Q3/Q4 2011, when Microsoft really catches up with the many smaller but highly useful features that made Windows Mobile so useful to me. WP7 is pretty much a brand new platform, and it'll take a few months after release for MS to get decent feedback from users to improve the platform.

[doogald]

The iPhone is what it is mainly because the application shop is very successful. But if you look deeply at it, 90% of what you have there are games for retarded.

Off topic, I really hate that use of this term. It is very offensive to the families of people with developmentally disabled people and it should be avoided.


I predict that the Windows Phone platform will make a comeback about June 2011. By then, Microsoft should be "caught up" with specific lacking features (ah hem, copy/paste) and the platform will have been out for more than six months.

Although we haven't seen the next gen iPhone 4.0 or Android operating systems yet, I think that WP7 will be different enough and more consumer (non-business) friendly to give the competition a good run for their money.

If Apple's release schedule stays the same as it has for the last three years, not only will iPhone OS 4 be out by June 2011, but iPhone OS 5 should be imminent. Again, Microsoft is really going to need to change a corporate culture that seems to be following the leaders on this sort of technology and be ready to deliver something that the iPhone OS cannot by that point to gain any significant market share by then.

[frankenbike]

What we don't know, is how functional and bulletproof the OS will be. And how well apps will play with the way people need the phone to work.

Lately, I've been working in more groups using Google Docs and Calendar. In particular, spreadsheets for schedules and cross referencing. From the general MS attitude of the past, that's a product that competes with MS Office. Will Microsoft enable a competitor because that's what many users need, or will they make it harder, to dissuade people from using it?

Same with Yahoo.

And as a consumer device, wouldn't it be nice if it came with a browser where you could go to Hulu.com, Vimeo, Ustream, Justin.tv, CoverItLive, and ANY site, with Flash, Shockwave and Java? That it's even a question in the first place is amazing, and that we've put up with it for 4 years and more, shows the general disdain all of the phone OS people have for the consumer.

I don't really trust MS. If there are problems with the OS, as there always are with anything new, they don't have a particularly good track record of being able to issue patches directly without going through the hardware vendors...model by model.

[kerrins]

I have been a long time winmo supporter and just the basic fact that version 7 won't have cut and paste means they will lose me as a customer. Version 7 has quite a few bells and whistles, but if you loose basic functionality it just doesn't make business sense. If they really want the market, keep the basics. If you want to add something for business then make it function more like RIM so the IT team can have some control. Every company I have worked for uses Exchange, but it is very rare for them to open it up to mobile devices. They are too worried about security. Make it secure and you can take the business market. I for one am switching to iPhone...never had anything Apple, but MS is not helping out by messing around with what does work.

[Eriq Cook]

I have been a long time winmo supporter and just the basic fact that version 7 won't have cut and paste means they will lose me as a customer. Version 7 has quite a few bells and whistles, but if you loose basic functionality it just doesn't make business sense. If they really want the market, keep the basics. If you want to add something for business then make it function more like RIM so the IT team can have some control. Every company I have worked for uses Exchange, but it is very rare for them to open it up to mobile devices. They are too worried about security. Make it secure and you can take the business market. I for one am switching to iPhone...never had anything Apple, but MS is not helping out by messing around with what does work.

I agree 100% with you. I'm sticking with Windows Phone Classic (as it will be called then) until Microsoft wises up in time with WP7, hopefully. To be honest, if the iPhone had a physical keyboard, I may have switched already. Every platform has something major missing.

Windows Mobile excelled in providing many basic features that power/business users use everyday. The reason I am sticking with Windows Mobile still is because the OS has had time to mature, and there are many small but very useful interface features that don't exist on other platforms. With all of that said, the OS is very dated now and Microsoft had to do something major, we know.

Windows Phone 7 is a brand new OS, but this brings us back to the same issues that were present when the iPhone was first introduced. Many of the useful features that made Windows Mobile the best platform for me for so many years have been wiped out, or completely redone in ways that take more time to do, in my opinion.

iPhone has great interface but no keyboard. Blackberry is a stable platform targeted towards business users, but offers no devices with keyboard + touch screen. And Android is still so new it'll take a couple of more versions to "catch up" in the user interface area and features.

I anticipate using Windows Phone Classic until Q3/Q4 2011. If WP7 doesn't have the "issues" worked out by then, that may be it for me. It all depends on what's available by then. As a long-time WinMo supporter since CE 2.x, I'm trying to hang in there.

My reason for still saying MS will "catch up" in 2011 is because Microsoft's focus with WP7 appears to be less on business/power users and more for everyday users.

[redifrogger]

Android is not an 'odd blip'. I think you are so biased toward Windows Mobile you can't see the actual landscape of handheld phone/smartphones, or whatever the current buzz word. iPhone is not just going to go away (Jobs is not an idiot), and Google has an opensource OS that HTC and Motorola are successfully selling on its devices. I hope Microsoft isn't too late with its new OS. Competition is good for all of us.

[Janak Parekh]

If Apple's release schedule stays the same as it has for the last three years, not only will iPhone OS 4 be out by June 2011, but iPhone OS 5 should be imminent. Again, Microsoft is really going to need to change a corporate culture that seems to be following the leaders on this sort of technology and be ready to deliver something that the iPhone OS cannot by that point to gain any significant market share by then. Actually, make that June 2010. And developers already got the early release yesterday! I know folks who have already installed and started playing with it. That's much closer to Microsoft's desktop experience with their good developer story.

Not only that, Apple supports its phone platforms for about three years, so that the majority of the devices can run the latest OS, making the developer experience far easier. And you know that Apple will release a new version every single year, so while they do miss features and make Apple-like arbitrary design and API decisions, they keep on evolving and making the units more powerful.

Microsoft, on the other hand, has something between an 18-36 month release schedule for WM with a poor-to-no update story. If they want WP7 to gain steam, they need to make it much more consistent and show a real commitment to the platform. Let's hope they tightened down those OEM contracts to allow it.

(What's kind of sad and hilarious is Microsoft already had a mobile platform that scaled from small phones to slate devices. It was called Windows CE, and it was regularly updated year after year. For some reason, though, they've let Apple steal all the thunder with a unified mobile OS, a freakin' decade later!)

--janak

[maxnix]

I agree 100% with you. I'm sticking with Windows Phone Classic (as it will be called then) until Microsoft wises up in time with WP7, hopefully.
I also will be with Classic until something more customizable and more functional comes along.

WP7 with its back to iPhone first generation OS is not it.

If Andorid 3.0 becomes that operating system, MS loses me and many others.

[doogald]

Actually, make that June 2010. And developers already got the early release yesterday! I know folks who have already installed and started playing with it. That's much closer to Microsoft's desktop experience with their good developer story.

Just to clarify, I used the June 2011 date is response to heliod who said that he thought that the Windows Phone platform would make a comeback by the June 2011 timeframe, having caught up with competitor features that will be missing in the initial WP7 release. Hence, my response, that not only will Microsoft need to meet and exceed iPhone OS 4 by then, but iPhone OS 5 will be just around the corner, so they'll need to beat whatever improvements that OS will include as well.

[efjay]

MS doesnt actually seem to be doing much with "Classic", as they have now coined it. Where are the updates to 6.5.3 or above for the T-Mobile HD2 for example? How about doing some work to further improve it since there are a lot of devices running 6.5 on the market NOW, and improvements could help to stem the apparent revulsion whenever a WM device is mentioned or reviewed.

I am so frustrated, I look around at my tech and I see my Windows Home Server, 3 Windows 7 pc's, 1 Xbox 360 and my HD2 and the lack of integration between them is jarring. If I was in the apple world all these things would work together seamlessly, even android talks to google services and integrates properly. My Windows Phone cant even grab my Windows Live Calendar, PIE is still lacking tabs (even 3 max would be useful), and the marketplace seems to have been abandoned with no incentives for devs to make programs for WM. Just today I learned there will be a Vonage applicaiton for android, no mention of WM and MS sits on their hands and will probably reveal those 2 pink dumbphones on Monday. Where is the evidence that they will be supporting 6.5 beyond mere lip service when they seem to be doing their darndest to ignore and bury it as fast as they can?

What the heck does the WM development team actually do to warrant their employment?

[gadgetguy804]

I think it is "game over" for Microsoft in the mobile arena. They have just written off their existing base with a new, non-upgradable OS with less features. It will be basically a version 1 of a product and we know how that goes. While the Zune interface is interesting, it just isn't that exciting or different and since it won't be out until late this year MS may as well save the $$ and effort and just close up shop now.

I have been using some form of Windows Mobile / Pocket PC since 2000 and am fairly vested with add-on software. With that no longer a consideration, I will be looking at iPhone or Android when it is time to upgrade. Those systems will have been developed more fully and have an even better base by this fall.