The Mobius Files: Will "App Lock-In" Slow Adoption of Other Platforms?

[Jason Dunn]

<p><em>I read an email on the <a href="http://www.windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/96144/the-mobius-files-the-problem-with-the-carriers.html" target="_blank">Mobius list</a> where the idea was that because consumers have already adopted the iPhone in droves, they won't be interested in Windows phone 7 came out. Here was my response (with some added thoughts).</em></p><p>Consumers are fickle creatures; they change their minds all the time when it comes to phone contract renewal time. <em>HOWEVER</em>...I wonder if "app lock-in" will play a role in moving to other platforms? As in, you're Joe Smith and you have an iPhone and you've spent $200 on apps over your two year contract...that app investment, will it make you feel like you need to stay with your iPhone even if there's another phone you like more? I wonder...</p><p>The reality is, of course, that the majority of users don't yet have smartphones - so in that sense the market is wide open - yet I think the biggest adoption blocker remains the costs of data plans. If you want your phone to do more than make calls, sent texts, and MMS, you're increasing the monthly outlay by a fair bit - especially if you're a light phone user with a small minutes plan, it can easily double the monthly cost of your phone bill (it does in my case). Until the carriers start to <em>want </em>all these people on their data networks, I think data plans will remain expensive, and the bulk of the population will stay away.</p>

[Macguy59]

Sure app investment will play a part as will iTunes content. However, if the initial Win 7 based phones are steeply subsidized it could be enough to lure some of those iPhone users. But I wonder how appealing it will be for the Android market ? I think Win Mob 7 has a real timeline problem. Unless iPhone OS 4.0 lays an egg, WM7 could find itself playing catchup again before it's even out. They really needed to have this out by June IMO

[Jason Dunn]

Unless iPhone OS 4.0 lays an egg, WM7 could find itself playing catchup again before it's even out. They really needed to have this out by June IMO

I'm curious what you think iPhone 4.0 will bring to the table? I predict it's going to look the same and work the same as the three versions before it. Some good stuff will get added, but no serious changes that will alter the basic way it works. Apple has shown that once they come up with a good design, they ride it for a veeeery long time. That's not a bad thing until it becomes a bad thing if you know what I mean. ;)

[kdarling]

I've spent a couple hundred dollars on WinMo software, but had no problem also using an iPhone, Blackberry and Pre.

Every platform has medical apps, games, productivity suites.

As long as the main software they want is available, I think people are happy. (For example, I like having Slingbox, which I used a lot to entertain my kids.)

[frankenbike]

The question is, will app lock-in work with current WM phone users? They're changing things so radically, I think they can't depend on it (I know I'll be checking other options at renewal time, or maybe sooner if I can run Android on my current phone to feel it out).

Besides, there are a lot of people not locked into anything at all. My wife has an LG Touch, which she got because she didn't think she'd want all the options of a Smartphone. Turns out, she was wrong about that. I didn't push a WM phone on her, because I know it had certainly quirks that might have made her throw it across the room. So maybe she'll be game for WMP 7, while I won't be.

[Jason Dunn]

The question is, will app lock-in work with current WM phone users?

Sure, that's possible...but the application adoption rate for Windows Mobile phones is so low that while the people in these forums may have lots of apps, most Windows Mobile users don't...

[doogald]

I think that the app lockin is not that big a deal at all. Think about how much more expensive PC apps compared with iPhone apps. Think of all of the people who have willingly switched from Windows to Mac, knowing that they were paying for new apps as well.

I just don't think that apps will be sticky enough to stop people. *Maybe* people with a lot of DRMed video content - movies, tv seasons, etc. - will be reluctant to leave. Even then, I doubt it.

[Jason Dunn]

I just don't think that apps will be sticky enough to stop people. *Maybe* people with a lot of DRMed video content - movies, tv seasons, etc. - will be reluctant to leave. Even then, I doubt it.

Ah, but you have people here in these forums saying that unless Windows phone 7 supports their favourite apps, they won't switch - so, given the rich app experience on the iPhone, I bet there will be people in the same boat. I think you're right about the $$$ factor with apps - they're so cheap, my $200 estimate was probably too high.

On the other hand, people might have invested $200+ in TV shows, movies, etc. Apple's overall ecosystem promotes user loyalty if they've bought content from Apple...that might keep some people using their iPhones no matter what. Unless they have an iPod Touch perhaps. :D

[Islanti]

I had thousands of dollars invested in Windows Mobile apps thanks to Smartphone and PDA versions of many, many apps and games over 10+ years (WinCE 1.0 user). I switched to an iPhone 3GS at launch. It was a tough decision given the cost of the applications but ultimately the low cost of iPhone apps helped me move. Why pay $20 for a WM app I could get for $2 on iPhone? The cost to re-purchase on iPhone boiled down to (way) less than the cost of the device.

The more interesting app lock-in issue is that existing Windows Mobile customers have to buy new (or re-buy) apps for Windows Phone 7 since WP7 apps must be purchased via the MS store. I expect many WM6 users will consider whether to invest in iPhone apps or WP7 apps. With the latter they risk being an afterthought of Microsoft's if WP7 fails. Given the Microsoft track record it's not a gamble I'd take (again).

Apple has a great marketing opportunity similar to their recent Mac ads aimed at WinXP users (Switch to Mac instead of Win7). Of course this won't happen. Apple doesn't need to spend any money to convince people Microsoft is a failure in the mobile marketplace. Nothing about WP7 seems to suggest it will get any more market share than Zune has.

[Phillip Dyson]

I posted this in another thread, but I'll repeat it here. I believe that MS is banking on the Xbox services to pull people away from other platforms. Including the iPhone.
In my mind stuff like Zune and Metro are nice, but probably don't have the gravity to draw anyone away from their exisiting ecosystem.
In the end, if you're an iPhone user and have an Xbox, there is alot familiar about WP7S. But its also got Xbox.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

... yet I think the biggest adoption blocker remains the costs of data plans.
Only where you are Jason, only where you are. :D

I think that the apps might matter. I do think that's why MS is betting on the Xbox integration so heavily. Most people I know with iPhones generally have more games than any kind of app. Productivity apps, not so much.

[Jason Dunn]

Only where you are Jason, only where you are. :D

Yes, I had someone in Europe correct me - apparently 10 Euros there will buy you a very reasonable data plan. It's unfortunately more expensive in North America, though there are some exceptions.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Yes, I had someone in Europe correct me - apparently 10 Euros there will buy you a very reasonable data plan. It's unfortunately more expensive in North America, though there are some exceptions.

I thought it's not so bad in the US? I know it sucks in Canada.

Where I am you can get a HSDPA 7.2 MB/s plan capped at 10GB for US$10; 30GB capped at US$15.

[Jason Dunn]

I thought it's not so bad in the US? I know it sucks in Canada.

Well, for the iPhone at least, on AT&T it's $30 for the data plan alone, which is what I was paying. The cheapest voice plain is another $30, and there's no text with that, so another $5 for 200 texts. So that's $65 for the most basic plan, and there's likely some sort of surcharge there...so figure $70.

Where I am you can get a HSDPA 7.2 MB/s plan capped at 10GB for US$10; 30GB capped at US$15.

$10??? Mother(*@#)@)#)@!!! :eek::eek::eek:

[Phillip Dyson]

Well, for the iPhone at least, on AT&T it's $30 for the data plan alone, which is what I was paying. The cheapest voice plain is another $30, and there's no text with that, so another $5 for 200 texts. So that's $65 for the most basic plan, and there's likely some sort of surcharge there...so figure $70.


That's about what I pay in the US. $72 to be more exact. And that's with a corporate discount.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

$10??? Mother(*@#)@)#)@!!! :eek::eek::eek:

Don't be jealous. Your cars don't cost $50k. :P

[wspears868]

I find this discussion to be totally academic. It isn't the software, but the price of the phone (and to a lesser degree the data plan) that drives the conversion or not. I have had a Windows phone or PDA for over 15 years, but I won't buy a Windows 7 phone. Nor will I buy one until the telecomms lose control over system updates. Why must I buy a new phone when converting from Windows 6 to 6.5? Or currently, converting from a 6.X phone to Windows 7? Android isn't dependent on Telecomms for upgrades, nor (I believe) is Apple. Until Microsoft receives the same rights, I am just not interested.

[Jason Dunn]

Android isn't dependent on Telecomms for upgrades, nor (I believe) is Apple. Until Microsoft receives the same rights, I am just not interested.

I know that Apple does a good job when it comes to upgrades, but I've read several stories about upgrade problems with Android - specifically that there are four versions of Android in active use right now and not all users can upgrade all phones...so I don't know if Android has a rosy picture of an upgrade story. :confused: